Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => The Roundtable => Topic started by: MillCreek on October 06, 2021, 05:18:04 PM
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As I read the recent news about the PRC sending warplanes in the area of Taiwan, their naval buildup, constructing new bases on islands, etc., I wonder if we or someone else gets into a shooting war with the PRC in the next ten years. And if we do, will it remain limited, or after the first carrier gets sunk or Taiwan is occupied, goes nuclear hot?
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My bet is that the US and everyone else will let China keep Hong Kong and takeover Taiwan without doing anything more than sending China a sternly-worded letter.
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You can't invade Taiwan. There will be a blade of grass....
Um.... there will be a blade of grass...
Ahhh... everywhere you look?
I wonder if we should start making Liberator pistols again.
NIB + ammo in WWII, they were only $2.10 each. That'd be about 30 bucks nowadays, not counting profit margin.
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Do you think China is building up to a full on military invasion? Or are they just trying to push for Taiwan to give in without a war?
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You can't invade Taiwan. There will be a blade of grass....
Um.... there will be a blade of grass...
Ahhh... everywhere you look?
I wonder if we should start making Liberator pistols again.
NIB + ammo in WWII, they were only $2.10 each. That'd be about 30 bucks nowadays, not counting profit margin.
If we get them made in China they'll only cost $11.25.
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But our strong, smart and very articulate leader just said he talked to pooh and they were in agreement that China would not invade.
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Will that hold when Harris takes over?
The U.S. thinks in terms of later today, far east countries think in terms of decades.
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What do the Taiwanese think about this I wonder?
How possible is it that Taiwanese opposition turns out to be another "Afghan Government" illusion?
China takes over and Taiwan adjusts and life goes on as before, except without the USA.
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I just read that deer leader and dear leader will hold a joint press conference soon. Should be a blast.
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I think it's just saber rattling to try and rally the Chinese populace for a fundamentally unpopular regime. I don't think there's any real intention of doing it, as it's too much risk and too little reward. There are some really valuable assets in Taiwan, but those can also be blown up rather easily. China's greatest military achievement as of late is what, shoving around some Indian troops in the Himalayas? Amphibious invasions are slightly more difficult.
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Will that hold when Harris takes over?
The U.S. thinks in terms of later today, far east countries think in terms of decades.
There are a whole lot of impatient teenagers who plan ahead better than the US Govt.
Personally, I don't think Asian countries are a whole lot better. Everyone said the same things about Japan in the early 90's.
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My bet is that the US and everyone else will let China keep Hong Kong and takeover Taiwan without doing anything more than sending China a sternly-worded letter.
This ^^^
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My bet is that the US and everyone else will let China keep Hong Kong and takeover Taiwan without doing anything more than sending China a sternly-worded letter.
I agree. We bailed out of our official support of Taiwan decades ago.
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I think China will eventually invade and take Taiwan. It's a matter of pride with them, Taiwan being the last holdout of the Nationalists since they lost the revolution in 1949. They've rattled their swords over Taiwan for far too long to not eventually invade. It would be a loss of face.
Given that China has recently been sending record numbers of aircraft into Taiwan's ADIZ, the invasion may come sooner rather than later. Taiwan will put up an admirable fight, but there is no way that they can prevail against the PRC.
When the invasion occurs, the USA will of course read a strongly worded letter in the UN to show the Chinese our displeasure.
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. . . When the invasion occurs, the USA will of course read a strongly worded letter in the UN to show the Chinese our displeasure.
Don't be too sure of that - our semi-senile Manchurian Candidate* POTUS wouldn't want to annoy them too much with strong language, since they might respond somewhere between the time he puts a lid on his workday (right after lunch) and his 7:30 PM bed time.
Secretary of State Blinken might glare at them a bit as they deliver a harsh response.
* - I don't believe Joe was brainwashed like the Manchurian Candidate - more likely, bribed or blackmailed.
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I think China will assume control within this decade without bloodshed.
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I think China will assume control within this decade without bloodshed.
Then the bloodshed will commence
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Then the bloodshed will commence
Once the bloodthirsty boomers are have retired from our government the American Empire can (hopefully) recede peacefully.
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Bloodthirsty boomers. ;/
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Bloodthirsty boomers. ;/
Our generation never met a military conflict they didn't support.
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Taiwan should start arming themselves like Switzerland used to...
And we should sell them subs with nuclear weapons.
Then they can take care of themselves.
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Blood thirsty neocons Our generation never met a military conflict they didn't support.
Fixed it for you.
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China can do whatever it wants. Frankly, the US can't afford a war with them. We're far too dependent on them as a supplier for almost every good you can think of. Also, they buy a substantial amount of our exports, and hold a substantial amount of US debt.
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China can do whatever it wants. Frankly, the US can't afford a war with them. We're far too dependent on them as a supplier for almost every good you can think of. Also, they buy a substantial amount of our exports, and hold a substantial amount of US debt.
Conversely, we are too large a market for them to upset. If there were a shooting war, we'd stop buying stuff from them.
However, given their communist belief in a command economy, that may not even figure into their calculations all that much.
Also, if we were to start tossing rounds back and forth, the US debt they hold would likely be repudiated as soon as the first shot is fired. Especially if they shoot first.
Hmmm...
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We have special forces and marines in country helping them train. Hope it goes better than Afghanistan.
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This just in. The US says China can have Taiwan.
In other news a Hunter Biden painting sells for $1 billion, two hookers, and blow.
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Conversely, we are too large a market for them to upset. If there were a shooting war, we'd stop buying stuff from them.
However, given their communist belief in a command economy, that may not even figure into their calculations all that much.
Also, if we were to start tossing rounds back and forth, the US debt they hold would likely be repudiated as soon as the first shot is fired. Especially if they shoot first.
Hmmm...
That's true, there's a lot of inter-dependency. But, I believe that the Chinese economy is in a much better position to deal with a collapse of trade, and the communist government would be much more willing to sacrifice the suffering of their people in pursuit of their goals.
I suspect that if the CCP said, behind closed doors, to US leadership: "We're taking Taiwan. If you do anything meaningful to resist that, we'll cut all imports and dump US held debt on the international market, for cheap." the US government would be quick to acquiesce.
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We have special forces and marines in country helping them train. Hope it goes better than Afghanistan.
It probably will. The Taiwanese have far more incentive and little in the way of cultural impediments to negatively impact the training.
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Conversely, we are too large a market for them to upset. If there were a shooting war, we'd stop buying stuff from them.
However, given their communist belief in a command economy, that may not even figure into their calculations all that much.
Also, if we were to start tossing rounds back and forth, the US debt they hold would likely be repudiated as soon as the first shot is fired. Especially if they shoot first.
Hmmm...
I would miss Olight flashlight sales and cheap red dot sights from Primary Arms. China likes having a good economy and a shooting war would tank a lot of their trade as well as raw materials shipments to China. They aren't self sufficient on everything any more than we are.
I don't know how well we would do in a shooting war with China, but I think it is a mistake to assume they are some sort of military masterminds. They haven't fought a serious war in decades same as us. If it was really hot, there would be a lot of lessons learned on both sides.
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Well, we just had an "incident" involving a submarine in the vicinity. Maybe things have already gone hot but it's still "classified". [tinfoil]
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It probably will. The Taiwanese have far more incentive and little in the way of cultural impediments to negatively impact the training.
From what I read, Taiwan doesn't seem to be taking its military seriously.
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^^^Published just today (and behind a paywall), but here is a WSJ article about concerns over the ability of Taiwan's military: https://www.wsj.com/articles/taiwan-military-readiness-china-threat-us-defense-11635174187?mod=hp_lead_pos5
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From earlier this month:
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2021/10/is-a-chinese-military-attack-on-taiwan-inevitable/
Even though some commentators are confident that the chance of war between China and Taiwan is remote[1], the odds of military action are growing by the day. In large part because Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leader Xi Jinping has publicly vowed, again and again, to wrench control of the island from its inhabitants.
He also may have set a deadline, amplifying the pressure. It is less clear when that deadline falls. Party leaders routinely cite 2049, the centennial of the foundation of the People’s Republic of China, as the date when the national rejuvenation project[2] must be complete.[3]
Earlier this year, however, outgoing US Indo-Pacific Command chief Admiral Phil Davidson told Congress that Beijing might move against Taiwan far earlier than the centennial – perhaps within the next six years (closer to five now).[4] China-watchers have taken to calling this interval the “Davidson window”, meaning China’s window of opportunity to seize this prime real estate.
So one school of thought says they'll do it by 2049, another says in the next 5-6 years.
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From earlier this month:
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2021/10/is-a-chinese-military-attack-on-taiwan-inevitable/
So one school of thought says they'll do it by 2049, another says in the next 5-6 years.
And that's one of the differences between China and US thinking when it comes to these matters.
To the US 5-6 years is too far in the future to worry about.
To the Chinese 2049 might as well be tomorrow.
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And that's one of the differences between China and US thinking when it comes to these matters.
To the US 5-6 years is too far in the future to worry about.
To the Chinese 2049 might as well be tomorrow.
They have all sort of problems right now. 28 years from now is certainly not tomorrow. The current leaders may not even be in power then. IMO, drop that down to 10 years.
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I don't know how well we would do in a shooting war with China, but I think it is a mistake to assume they are some sort of military masterminds. They haven't fought a serious war in decades same as us. If it was really hot, there would be a lot of lessons learned on both sides.
They have done pretty good so far. Most still don't even realize there is a war going on. SunTzu is giggling in his grave over the wuhan gain of function virus, and the initial Chinese spread alarm-ism that caused most of the free world to commit economic seppeku.
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The last time we fought against then was the Korean war, it was a bloodbath, and ended in a tie.
They have a lot better tech now.
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The last time we fought against then was the Korean war, it was a bloodbath, and ended in a tie.
They have a lot better tech now.
But is it good tech? Has it been tested?
I put the Chinese in the same bin as the Russians: their tech sucks, but they have a lot of it.
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Taiwan is still using some old-time tech . . . the included video sort of reminds me of "The Guns of Navarone - Light"
https://medium.com/war-is-boring/these-taiwanese-howitzers-are-enormous-5a578d5320de
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But is it good tech? Has it been tested?
I put the Chinese in the same bin as the Russians: their tech sucks, but they have a lot of it.
That is sort of the way I look at it. I don't assume they are 1st class just because they put up a good image. Yes, politically, they outclass the political elite in this country, but I thought Trump was handling them fine so I don't think they are geniuses. As for long term planning, we saw they built entire cities that were uninhabited due to poor planning. They have plenty of warts.
I also don't think we would be quite as tough as I would like us to be. Aside from political handcuffs our forces would likely have in any early engagement, I don't have a great deal of confidence in our military leadership. Not as bad as I fear, but plenty of lightweights in the chain of command. I think the older generations of political elite were smarter people, but the current crop is short sighted and foolish.
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. . . . I also don't think we would be quite as tough as I would like us to be. Aside from political handcuffs our forces would likely have in any early engagement, I don't have a great deal of confidence in our military leadership. Not as bad as I fear, but plenty of lightweights in the chain of command. I think the older generations of political elite were smarter people, but the current crop is short sighted and foolish.
Have to agree with this - it's been a problem for quite a while. Truman established his "Yalu River Safe Zone" for Chinese & Russian piloted MIGs during the Korean War, and of course Lyndon Bains Johnson's running of the Vietnam war made him North Vietnam's most accomplished general.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydEgap5XeGM
Why China Switched to the New QBZ-191 Primary Weapon
I thought the crowd here might want to see this video on China's new rifle.
He also has a couple videos on the new Humvee replacement.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sk2RgnpunjQ
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xiv_Bo9WGkQ