Author Topic: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square  (Read 9216 times)

Nitrogen

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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #25 on: May 06, 2010, 12:08:49 PM »
One wonders how difficult it would be to line the cargo area of a Ryder truck (or similar) with lead foil or malleable 1/8" thick slabs and then seal it up to prevent transfer of gases?

Could it be as easy as substituting lead for aluminum in the radiant barrier solution and spraying it on the inside and then doing something similar with foam insulation and vapor barrier?

It's not gasses like poisons that are the culprit for making these things detectable.  You have particles that permiate solids, like neutrons.  As AJ explains below.

Gallium Arsenide neutron detectors are pretty cheap to make, and easy to deploy.  (I'm assuming that's what NYC is using.)

AJ, tell me if I'm remembering my physics correctly here.  If the bomb was made with plutonium, it'd be easier to detect than a uranium one, right? (Due to the difference in neutron release rate/ decay energy?)

Plutonium would be easier to make a weapon from.  Uranium would be harder to make (even if you got some crudely refined 30% enriched, with an awesome neutron reflector) but also harder to detect.
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AJ Dual

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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #26 on: May 06, 2010, 12:25:21 PM »
It's not gasses like poisons that are the culprit for making these things detectable.  You have particles that permiate solids, like neutrons.  As AJ explains below.

Gallium Arsenide neutron detectors are pretty cheap to make, and easy to deploy.  (I'm assuming that's what NYC is using.)

AJ, tell me if I'm remembering my physics correctly here.  If the bomb was made with plutonium, it'd be easier to detect than a uranium one, right? (Due to the difference in neutron release rate/ decay energy?)

Plutonium would be easier to make a weapon from.  Uranium would be harder to make (even if you got some crudely refined 30% enriched, with an awesome neutron reflector) but also harder to detect.

I THINK (not "know") that Pu239, like I said earlier, if it was well-processed from the breeding nuclear reactor to keep Pu240 at a minimum, is actually less detectable than a U235 sub-critical mass.

This is one of the convenient things about Pu239. It's spontaneous rate of neutron emission is much lower, so it can actually be formed into a supercritical sphere, and not go off on it's own. U235 can't do that. Just bring critical U235 masses near each other by handr and you might get a really nasty "fizzle" that'll kill people and might be a few tons in yield. Aside from the famous death at Los Alamos with U235 pieces, others have died just taking liquid U235 solutions from a skinny flask, like a graduated cylinder, to one with a high volume low surface area shape like an Erlenmeyer.

A nice blue flash of Cherenkov radiation and then a few minutes/hours later, you don't feel so good.

The supercritical Pu239 sphere or pit as it's called can make it easier to transport, and handle the device, but the symmetry and simultaneity needed for detonation, plus all the neutron reflectors and enhancers you might want to get a good yield make it harder to manufacture.

A U235 gun or slamming device is technically easier to produce, but much larger and heavier to transport, and it's much "hotter" just by virtue of the nature of U235 which also makes it a good nuclear fuel.

Of course Pu239 has a much longer logistic trail. First you have to get refined U235, build it into a reactor in such a way it breeds Pu239, then reprocess the fuel to get the Pu out, and in such a manner the Pu240 is minimized, or you start having the same problems with your bomb-pit that you do with U235 in terms of radiation and practicality.

AFAIK, the only reason we made a "little boy" U235 gun-device was that the Trinity device and Fat Man completely exhausted the U.S.'s supply of Plutonium.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2010, 12:30:43 PM by AJ Dual »
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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #27 on: May 06, 2010, 12:52:42 PM »
Not sure of the weight of a critical mass of U or Pu, but would it be possible for a martyr type to just bang two spheres of either one together like cymbals and get a reaction? Or does it take a high-speed collision?

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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #28 on: May 06, 2010, 12:54:16 PM »
Ok, just did the math with a friend. For a complete, ready-to-go-boom device, we're looking at a two foot sphere, weighing around 197lbs. That'd be for 20Kt, really easy to make, and readily available materials/components. No special skills or tools required, and basically any moron knowing how to make a shaped charge could do it with the correct materials (which, again, aren't hard to get)
 
So, how is a two foot sphere, contained however you'd like, weighing less than 200lbs, hard to carry, hard to fit into a van/SUV, or hard to conceal in any way? =|


BTW, this is for an implosion type, NOT a gun type. For a gun type, you're 100% correct that it would be big, heavy, hard to move/conceal, etc. (Un)luckily, an implosion type is smaller, more efficient, and still easy as heck to build.


Okay, once again - this info I posted about weight/size earlier didn't involve ANYTHING but 80% enriched U235, explosives, and electronics.

Nothing. Zero. No reflector, no DT mix core, nothing.

Cheap, quick, easy. Again, implosion devices, with 2010 tech, are pathetically small and easy. The computers and geometry are SO pathetically easy that countries build oblong implosion devices - and that was in the 1970s. Nowadays, it's easy, easy, easy!





Not sure of the weight of a critical mass of U or Pu, but would it be possible for a martyr type to just bang two spheres of either one together like cymbals and get a reaction? Or does it take a high-speed collision?

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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #29 on: May 06, 2010, 12:58:25 PM »
One wonders how difficult it would be to line the cargo area of a Ryder truck (or similar) with lead foil or malleable 1/8" thick slabs and then seal it up to prevent transfer of gases?
Neutron shielding would probably consist of something like paraffin or water to slow the fast neutrons down, with other materials on the exterior to stop the absorption-related emissions. When I was in college there was a 1-curie (16 gram) plutonium source in one of the labs that was kept in a specially-built 55 gallon drum; there were 3 ports in the sides equipped with thick, shielded plugs that kept radiation from being emitted uncontrollably. None of the instruments we had available in the student lab could detect any emissions from the drum when it was all buttoned up.

That was decades ago . . . wonder if they still have it. About that time, Argonne National Lab removed their 10 curie (160 gram) plutonium source from the student lab.

. . . Of course Pu239 has a much longer logistic trail. First you have to get refined U235, build it into a reactor in such a way it breeds Pu239, then reprocess the fuel to get the Pu out, and in such a manner the Pu240 is minimized, or you start having the same problems with your bomb-pit that you do with U235 in terms of radiation and practicality . . .
I vaguely remember that Pu239 has half a dozen or so allotropic forms, with varying densities . . .  I wonder what effect that has on imploding a critical mass? Just another complication . . .

Not sure of the weight of a critical mass of U or Pu, but would it be possible for a martyr type to just bang two spheres of either one together like cymbals and get a reaction? Or does it take a high-speed collision?
Tickling the dragon's tail . . . he'd get a reaction, all right, but without confinement it would be more of a "pop" than a "boom" with a really unhealthy burst of radiation.  (Wouldn't want to be anywhere nearby.)
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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #30 on: May 06, 2010, 12:59:13 PM »
<physics geek showing off what he DOES know>Actually it wouldn't be cerenkov radiation, I dont think.  IIRC, its caused by particles moving faster the light would travel through that medium. (like water in a reactor</geek>

Something like what happened at Los Alamos, that'd be due to light emitted by molecules moving from excited to unexcited states (like lightning in a way)

So, OK, I got plutonium and uranium backwards, when it gets to the complexities, I lose it, which is why I asked.  I always thought the accident at Los Alamos was with plutonium, but I looked and was enlightened.

It WAS Plutonium.  I was wrong about how it happened.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2010, 01:21:50 PM by Nitrogen »
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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #31 on: May 06, 2010, 02:12:33 PM »
All the ghastly physics aside, my concerns would be about our (USA) reaction to such an event.  You think 9/11 created some hysteria?  That would be as NOTHING compared to the effects of bottled sunshine on the economy.  Wall Street demolished?  Money center banks destroyed?  FUD (Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt) loose in the land?  What sort of USA Patriot Act might follow such an event?  "Papieren, bitte" would be the LEAST onerous measure adopted.
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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #32 on: May 06, 2010, 02:17:53 PM »
Papieren bitte is already coming via Real ID.

NY and DC have so many radiation detectors in place I seriously doubt any of our goat herding enemies could smuggle in a dirty bomb let alone a nuke. Now, if they went to a major port city (esp one on the Gulf Coast w/ oil refineries etc) that might be a different story.  =| Thankfully the sort of nut that wants to set off a nuke has been  the type of nut that wants a big symbolic gesture at NYC etc, and not a cold calculating type that will do max damage at minimal risk. And given the cross culture divide they may not understand what maximum damage would be...
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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #33 on: May 06, 2010, 03:00:27 PM »
Someone made the case that the Port of Los Angeles or Long Beach would be the greatest possible economic blow to the U.S.
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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #34 on: May 06, 2010, 06:56:51 PM »
If the bad guys would think like Americans instead of playing to the jihadi grandstands they would forget high profile targets like Time Square and head to places like Peoria, IL or Soddy Daisey, AL.  Strike at the heart of middle America and you'll screw with the heads of millions of Americans.  Economic impact would be minimal but the fear would be profound.
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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #35 on: May 06, 2010, 10:02:18 PM »
If the bad guys would think like Americans instead of playing to the jihadi grandstands they would forget high profile targets like Time Square and head to places like Peoria, IL or Soddy Daisey, AL.  Strike at the heart of middle America and you'll screw with the heads of millions of Americans.  Economic impact would be minimal but the fear would be profound.

This too, but I'd save garbage can bombs and spree shooters for Black Friday in malls for Podunk U.S.A. in my strategy. Then with IED's in random cars in the parking lot timed to go off T+ 00:30 to hit the peak of the emergency response.

A major costal port but not NYC would maximize th enuke impact.
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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #36 on: May 06, 2010, 11:04:36 PM »
Someone made the case that the Port of Los Angeles or Long Beach would be the greatest possible economic blow to the U.S.

I took part in a Port of LA/LB security symposium a couple of years ago where the scenario was a terrorist bombing of two ships in port simultaneously, resulting in the port being blocked. It's the 2nd largest port in the US. Commerce is around a billion dollars per day. The scenario had a best case of the port being partially re-opened in around two weeks, fully in a month. The worst case was a good deal worse.

There was a cascade effect of shortages well into the interior of the US based on staple goods, fuel, etc. not making it in. Other West Coast ports would not only not be able to handle the diverted overflow on a good day, but it would be expected that they'd be locked down and that cargo inspections would even further slow down goods distributions. This is on top of the economic effects.

There's an unclassified report from the symposium that should be somewhere on the interwebz. I'll see if I can dig it up.
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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #37 on: May 07, 2010, 01:46:24 AM »
Bombing a port would screw us but good. Bombing Hickville on Black Friday or re-enacting Beslan would get a lot of sand turned to glass.
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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #38 on: May 07, 2010, 08:27:41 AM »
  . . . Bombing Hickville on Black Friday or re-enacting Beslan would get a lot of sand turned to glass.
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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #39 on: May 07, 2010, 09:25:46 AM »
I still think we should have established a Pax Americana back in 1946.

Oh.  Sorry.  That's not very PC.

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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #40 on: May 07, 2010, 02:23:10 PM »
With this administration . . . I'm not so sure.  =(

In what scenario would it be beneficial to use strategic nuclear weapons in response to a terrorist attack?

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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #41 on: May 07, 2010, 02:26:08 PM »
This too, but I'd save garbage can bombs and spree shooters for Black Friday in malls for Podunk U.S.A. in my strategy. Then with IED's in random cars in the parking lot timed to go off T+ 00:30 to hit the peak of the emergency response.

A major costal port but not NYC would maximize th enuke impact.

I'm actually pretty surprised this has not happened yet.  All you need is boots on the ground with some non-complex training to pull this off and it would create total chaos.

Why do you think we have not been hit this way?  Are people just holding out for a 'big' target?  Has our internal security been so good we've caught people who would have tried?

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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #42 on: May 07, 2010, 02:42:39 PM »
Not sure of the weight of a critical mass of U or Pu, but would it be possible for a martyr type to just bang two spheres of either one together like cymbals and get a reaction? Or does it take a high-speed collision?

On a random side note, getting the fissionables is the hard part.

If they get that far, they'd be complete morons for not building the device to bring the masses together.  Given some design work on their end, that part could all be hired out totally over the counter and above board to various small job shops.  It'd probably be the cheapest part of the whole operation, really.

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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #43 on: May 07, 2010, 03:26:31 PM »
I'm actually pretty surprised this has not happened yet.  All you need is boots on the ground with some non-complex training to pull this off and it would create total chaos.

Why do you think we have not been hit this way?  Are people just holding out for a 'big' target?  Has our internal security been so good we've caught people who would have tried?

I too wonder about that. Some guns and pipe-bombs and a willingness to die in a crowded mall could really create havoc.

I think it's a whole slew of factors:

1. We are catching them. Since 9/11 DHS/CIA/FBI has stopped, caught, disrupted way more plots than we may ever know.

2. They truly "don't think like us". Their culture and target-selection thought process is just different than ours. They don't really "get" what a well coordinated but simple mall shooting on Black Friday would do to the American Psyche.  Different culture, and a different value on human life. I think their authoritarian culture and upbringing makes them see institutions (represented as buildings, Pentagon, WTC, the Capitol etc..) as being more important than body-count.

3. The "bug lamp" effect that Iraq and Afghanistan has had. And it's simply more convenient. By way of analogy, say the PRC, or USSR was messing about in Canada, and you lived in the U.S. and you wanted to fight them. Would you travel to the PRC or USSR where you don't blend in, can't speak the language, and try and acquire firearms and explosives? Or would you simply walk across the border into Canada to try and see some action?

4. Those who are intelligent enough to get here in the U.S. and function here are seen as too valuable by their parent organization to waste on a more "simple" Mumbai-style attack.

So perhaps there's a whole slew of "filters" and self-selection that goes on that makes such attacks unlikely. And those who do try them Maj. Hassan, and Faisal Shahzad are more cases of "Sudden Jihad" syndrome. Unhappy/Depressed/Failed Americans of ME descent who latch on to the idea of Jihad more out of sheer anger than ideological concerns.

Although I admit that line is VERY blurry, because terrorists use those same feelings as a recruitment tool in their own AO.  =|
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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #44 on: May 07, 2010, 06:30:47 PM »
i think it's more like feeling out the boundaries, like they are trying to find something that they can do regularly. or maybe they just can't convince someone who has lived here to strap on and walk into a crowded place and pop.

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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #45 on: May 07, 2010, 07:40:07 PM »
i think it's more like feeling out the boundaries, like they are trying to find something that they can do regularly. or maybe they just can't convince someone who has lived here to strap on and walk into a crowded place and pop.

Yeah, who needs 72 virgins when there are college girls walking around in halter tops and short shorts  ;)
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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #46 on: May 07, 2010, 10:50:20 PM »
I too wonder about that. Some guns and pipe-bombs and a willingness to die in a crowded mall could really create havoc.

I think it's a whole slew of factors:

1. We are catching them. Since 9/11 DHS/CIA/FBI has stopped, caught, disrupted way more plots than we may ever know.

2. They truly "don't think like us". Their culture and target-selection thought process is just different than ours. They don't really "get" what a well coordinated but simple mall shooting on Black Friday would do to the American Psyche.  Different culture, and a different value on human life. I think their authoritarian culture and upbringing makes them see institutions (represented as buildings, Pentagon, WTC, the Capitol etc..) as being more important than body-count.

3. The "bug lamp" effect that Iraq and Afghanistan has had. And it's simply more convenient. By way of analogy, say the PRC, or USSR was messing about in Canada, and you lived in the U.S. and you wanted to fight them. Would you travel to the PRC or USSR where you don't blend in, can't speak the language, and try and acquire firearms and explosives? Or would you simply walk across the border into Canada to try and see some action?

4. Those who are intelligent enough to get here in the U.S. and function here are seen as too valuable by their parent organization to waste on a more "simple" Mumbai-style attack.

So perhaps there's a whole slew of "filters" and self-selection that goes on that makes such attacks unlikely. And those who do try them Maj. Hassan, and Faisal Shahzad are more cases of "Sudden Jihad" syndrome. Unhappy/Depressed/Failed Americans of ME descent who latch on to the idea of Jihad more out of sheer anger than ideological concerns.

Although I admit that line is VERY blurry, because terrorists use those same feelings as a recruitment tool in their own AO.  =|

5.  Symbolism.  Their culture and way of warfare is mostly symbolic.  Ours is results oriented.  They don't have to drive on the enemy's capital destroying everything and killing everyone in the way, like we do.  It's the Western vs the Eastern way of war.  Poking the Great Satan in the eye is a huge win for them, even if it does nothing to bring them closer to victory, it's a SYMBOLIC win.  And they are willing to do it over and over and over and over and over and over again.   We want quick and relatively bloodless (at to our side) victories.  They are willing to fight for centuries.
 
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Re: 10-15KT Bomb vs Times Square
« Reply #47 on: May 10, 2010, 11:05:02 AM »
5.  Symbolism.  Their culture and way of warfare is mostly symbolic.  Ours is results oriented.  They don't have to drive on the enemy's capital destroying everything and killing everyone in the way, like we do.  It's the Western vs the Eastern way of war.  Poking the Great Satan in the eye is a huge win for them, even if it does nothing to bring them closer to victory, it's a SYMBOLIC win.  And they are willing to do it over and over and over and over and over and over again.   We want quick and relatively bloodless (at to our side) victories.  They are willing to fight for centuries.
 

I dunno, they seem to do lots of small tactic stuff in Iraq.  Every day there are 'small' bombings, shootings, etc.