I don't understand Hybrids

[Nick1911]

My wife wants a small SUV for her next car.  This is a long way off (5 years), but I figured I'd poke around for the fun of it.

I like the Ford Escape.  It's about the right size.  I see that Ford makes a Hybrid version that gets pretty good fuel mileage.

So, based on numbers from KBB and Fueleconomy.gov, I decided to see what the break even mileage is for the price difference between the hybrid and the XLT model, both 4x4.

2009 Ford Escape HYBRID
$32,120.00  (KBB's "what people are actually paying")
28 mpg (combined)


2009 Ford Escape
$21,786.00 (KBB's "what people are actually paying")
21 mpg (combined)

ASSUMING consistent $4/gallon fuel costs:

$10,334 cost difference buys 2583 gallons of fuel

Miles / MPG = Fuel used

(X / 21) - (X / 28) = 2583

X = 216,972 Miles

 

That's quite a long payback period, even assuming high fuel prices.  A fair number of the cars won't even make it that far!

So, why would someone buy the hybrid?

[Manedwolf]

That's why Honda discontinued the Accord version.

[Brad Johnson]

That's not counting a $3000-$5000 battery replacement at 100k miles.  Add that in as a fuel cost.

Hybrids = Stupid Tax for people who don't know how to use a calculator.

Brad

[Jamisjockey]

That's quite a long payback period, even assuming high fuel prices.  A fair number of the cars won't even make it that far!

So, why would someone buy the hybrid?

Because it feels good, for mother earth and all.  

[Gewehr98]

Maybe you can ask Riley McPaddy.

He has one.

Oops.

Sorry.

You can't.   

[Bogie]

It's a status symbol... I've been trying to talk Jen's dad, who owns an electrician company, into offering some solar stuff. He's fixated on "it's not cost effective," and can't quite grok the whole thing about how "Bobby and Buffy will buy it to put on their roof to show the neighbors how envirocaring they are."
 

[26point2]

I agree that buying a hybrid doesn't make sense, in any way, shape or form...however, I don't have the numbers to back it up, but I believe leasing a hybrid makes a little bit of fiscal sense.  Low or no downpayment, probably the same montly payment or close to it as a bought vehicle and you can turn it in before high battery replacement costs kick in..

Personally, I have Jetta TDI for my green friends to envy and an F-150 that just belches hydrocarbons for everyone else..

[mtnbkr]

That's not counting a $3000-$5000 battery replacement at 100k miles.  Add that in as a fuel cost.

Hybrids = Stupid Tax for people who don't know how to use a calculator.

Brad

Toyota was quoting longer lifespans except for defective batteries, which they replace under warranty.  There are also cheaper battery replacement options if you use salvaged batteries from wrecked vehicles. 

Found this on fuelzilla.com:

The actual life of the battery is indeterminate; too few have failed to make
a usable estimate. I have heard of about a dozen battery failures (mostly on
the 14,000 member Yahoo! Toyota-Prius forum, suggesting the failure rate is
around 0.1%) and I don't see a pattern - the failures seem pretty random. As
many as half the diagnosed battery failures are suspicious in my mind, but
since nearly all have eventually been paid for by Toyota - even the ones
past the stated warranty period - few people complain.

I think it's safe to say few Prius owners will ever experience a main
battery failure, since several early Prius cars have exceeded 200K miles
without battery trouble. The Prius has been on the streets of Japan for ten
years now without a lot of battery failures. The two we have (2002 models
with 75K miles and 110K miles) sure haven't given us any trouble that decent
gas didn't fix.

What I've been reading is that hybrid batteries are expected to last upwards of 150k miles with few, if any true mileage related failures.  On top of that, it appears Toyota is going out of it's way to keep hybrid customers happy by replacing batteries in questionable situations.  I've also read that entire batteries need not be replaced, you can frequently repair them by replacing individual cells.  Makes sense, you can do that with just about any battery pack...

Chris

[K Frame]

GEW!

What have I said in the past?

Let the dead be not spoken of lest their chindis pollute the living with their evil ways.

If we get haunted, it's going to be your fault! :)

[Bogie]

So, did he get hit by a Peterbilt or something?
 

[Werewolf]

Silly Rabbit - it's not about saving money...

It's about saving the PLANET!

Now go ye and pray for forgiveness to the god ALGORE and hope he doesn't smite thee for your blasphemy.

[Jamisjockey]

So, did he get hit by a Peterbilt or something?
 

No.  Irwin's newkleyar banschwerk.

[Brad Johnson]

What I've been reading is that hybrid batteries are expected to last upwards of 150k miles with few, if any true mileage related failures.

Even factoring in 150k, it still doesn't make the numbers work to any financial advantage.

Replaceing single cells is, eventually, more costly than replaceing the entire pack.  If all the cells have a 150k related lifespan, it's safe to presume about 20% will fail significantly prior to that number, 20% will outlast that number by a about the same margin, and the remaining 60% will fail within the expected time.  Factor in the labor it takes to replace a single cell, and doing each cell one at a time, and it becomes cost effective to replace the entire pack when cells begin failing at or near the expected time.

Until the battery technology becomes such that replacement cell costs are balanced out by the fuel savings or the purchase price, it's still a no-brainer.  Hybrids are more expensive.

And don't even get me started on where that "zero emissions" electricity is produced, or all the energy required to process all those toxic metals in the old battery packs.  

Hybrids are a sham, a farce, a green-tinted guilt trip foist upon us by people with a lot more passion than brains.  They are not what they are made out to be - financially, economically, or environmentally - and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see it.

Brad

[Monkeyleg]

It makes much more sense economically to just put a green ribbon on your car to show that you care. Extra points if you still have a "Bush Lied, People Died" bumper sticker.

[mtnbkr]

Replaceing single cells is, eventually, more costly than replaceing the entire pack.  If all the cells have a 150k related lifespan, it's safe to presume about 20% will fail significantly prior to that number, 20% will outlast that number by a about the same margin, and the remaining 60% will fail within the expected time.  Factor in the labor it takes to replace a single cell, and doing each cell one at a time, and it becomes cost effective to replace the entire pack when cells begin failing at or near the expected time.

Where do you get your figures?  I don't have experience with the batteries used with hybrids, but I do have some experience with battery systems in general and the expense in replacing cells vs an entire pack is less if the pack isn't sealed.  Also, it doesn't matter if X% fail before 150k if the manufacturer is replacing them under warranty at that point.  That's no different than saying X% of engines fail below 100k miles.  So what? 

Anyway, with the overall cost exceeding that of a standard vehicle, there's no real need to pad the numbers by bringing up the possibility of a battery replacement within the normal ownership period.  Especially since so few have been replaced at the owner's expense.  The batteries could last 500k miles, cost half as much, and the cars still wouldn't be economically feasible within a normal term of ownership.

Chris

[Firethorn]

Replaceing single cells is, eventually, more costly than replaceing the entire pack.  If all the cells have a 150k related lifespan, it's safe to presume about 20% will fail significantly prior to that number, 20% will outlast that number by a about the same margin, and the remaining 60% will fail within the expected time.  Factor in the labor it takes to replace a single cell, and doing each cell one at a time, and it becomes cost effective to replace the entire pack when cells begin failing at or near the expected time.

It all depends on the difficulty to test & replace individual cells.  If it takes 10 seconds with a tool to isolate a cell and another to test it, it can be quite economic to replace individual cells.  Especially if you grab individual good cells out of wrecks/totally replaced batteries.

Hybrids are more expensive.

I'd say that depends on your driving style.  An inner city cab will be able to justify a hybrid a lot sooner than I would.  You can also get some unexpected benefits as well - generally you don't need to change out the oil/air filter anywhere near as often, the engine breaks down less, and brake pads are lifetime due to regenerative braking.

A hybrid doesn't make sense for the average consumer - but if you put enough city miles on it a year, it can make sense.

The recycling otherwise, well, it's cheaper than making a new battery, so you might eventually see battery swaps w/core charge.

[Brad Johnson]

expense in replacing cells vs an entire pack is less if the pack isn't sealed.  

If it takes 10 seconds with a tool to isolate a cell and another to test it, it can be quite economic to replace individual cells.

Testing or replacing the cell isn't the problem, once the pack itself is exposed.  It's the labor involved getting to it.  If the packs are unitized in some way, or are housed in a common assmembly, it takes X number of hours to be able to acces some or all of the pack.  If you do it once for every cell then the overall cost of replacement is labor times the total number of cells plus the battery price.  Even figuring in a mere hour labor for each cell, the labor costs could easily run into the thousands of dollars.  I'll pick an arbitrary value of 100 volts DC.  That's 50 cells, roughly.  At one hour each and a shop rate of $75 per hour, that's $3750 ... roughly the cost of the replacement pack.  If the entire pack took TEN hours to replace at $75 per shop hour, that's still a savings of $3000 over the life of the vehicle.  And that's not counting the fact that single cells will likely be 20-50% more expensive per cell than a complete pack.

If you intend to keep the vehicle past the point where all cells are likely to fail, it is less costly overall to replace the entire pack.  It is a larger one-time expense in terms of parts but you only incur a single labor fee which, in all likelyhood, will be only slightly higher than the cost of replacing a single cell.

A good analogy would be the lifters in a small block Chevy.  Replacing the lifter is no big deal once you get to it, and the part is relatively inexpensive.  However, getting to the lifter requires a fair amount of labor, and that labor will be repeated for each unit.  Since the lifters wear at a more or less uniform rate, it is reasonable to presume that all lifters will begin to fail in roughly the same time frame.  If you are going to pull the engine apart anyway it is more economically viable long term to replace the entire set.  Tearing it down each time you need to replace a single unit incurs the same amount of labor, except now you've taken the labor cost and multiplied it by sixteen (remember, two lifters per cylinder!).

I'd say that depends on your driving style.  An inner city cab will be able to justify a hybrid a lot sooner than I would.

Not by much.  Run the numbers and the "break even" it's still much longer than most of us will ever own a vehicle.

Brad

[cfabe]

Some of the hybrids on the market do make sense depending on your situation what you project fuel costs to be over the life of the vehicle, future fuel cost being unknown it will always be a bit of a gamble.

In 2008 we purchased a Saturn Vue hybrid for my wife to replace an older chevy blazer. This is a 'mild hybrid' vehicle with GM's Belt-Alternator-Starter hybrid system. We do mostly highway driving and due to the characteristics of the mild hybrid system the Vue still gets better hwy mpg than city (most 'true' hybrids reverse that). We did also consider the Ford Escape Hybrid but it got worse highway mileage, and was more expensive so it was not economically viable for us.

The MSRP was about $2000 higher than a comporbaly equipped normal VUE, and with the gov't rebate it made it an attractive deal. I went through all the calculations for payback including the financing cost, it pretty much ended up to be a wash at $4/gal. Ultimately we went with the hybrid because it came with a trim package my wife liked more. Of course if gas stays at $2/gal for the life of the vehicle, it will turn out to have been a bad decicsion. I did not factor in battery replacement cost because the design of the hybrid system will allow the vehicle to continue to operate with a bad battery, when/if the battery wears out I will not replace it.

[mtnbkr]

I think the problem is you're assuming someone would replace batteries piecemeal until the entire pack has been rebuilt and I'm assuming someone would replace one or two cells over the life of the car before selling it.  No telling which is the likely scenario at this stage...

BTW, came across an example of a Prius with 174k miles before a replacement needed and another with over 200k that got totaled before needed a new battery. 

Chris

[Brad Johnson]

I think the problem is you're assuming someone would replace batteries piecemeal until the entire pack has been rebuilt and I'm assuming someone would replace one or two cells over the life of the car before selling it.  No telling which is the likely scenario at this stage...

BTW, came across an example of a Prius with 174k miles before a replacement needed and another with over 200k that got totaled before needed a new battery. 

Chris

Kinda irrelevant, really.  You still end up seeing the expense, just in a different way.  It will cost you as:

A) Direct replacement cost, or
B) Reduced trade value (which is inevitable once the market determines average-rate-of-failure expenses for that particular model)

So, up front cost or lowered trade-in value, it still comes outta your pocket at some point.

Which reminds me, I have to get an intake seal for the Suburban on the way home.  I replaced a leaky power steering hose only to have fluid begin pouring from between the pump body and the reservoir. I was crawling out from under the beast after figuring the new leak when I noticed a coolant leak.  I traced that to the coolant passage between the intake manifold and head.  Fix one leak, create two.  Great.  At least I know what I'll be doing this weekend.

Brad

[Harold Tuttle]

Hybrids are excellent for Death Race 2000-ing Blind people and small animals

[41magsnub]

Hybrids are excellent for Death Race 2000-ing Blind people and small animals

I would pay good money to see a Pious tricked out with 2 Tommy guns and bayonets on the front.

[Firethorn]

Testing or replacing the cell isn't the problem, once the pack itself is exposed.  It's the labor involved getting to it.  If the packs are unitized in some way, or are housed in a common assmembly, it takes X number of hours to be able to acces some or all of the pack.  If you do it once for every cell then the overall cost of replacement is labor times the total number of cells plus the battery price.  Even figuring in a mere hour labor for each cell, the labor costs could easily run into the thousands of dollars.  I'll pick an arbitrary value of 100 volts DC.  That's 50 cells, roughly.  At one hour each and a shop rate of $75 per hour, that's $3750 ... roughly the cost of the replacement pack.  If the entire pack took TEN hours to replace at $75 per shop hour, that's still a savings of $3000 over the life of the vehicle.  And that's not counting the fact that single cells will likely be 20-50% more expensive per cell than a complete pack.

If it takes an hour per cell they designed the pack wrong.  Call it an hour to pull the battery out of the car and put it or a replacement back in, an hour to access the cells in the pack, then an hour to test ALL the cells.  It shouldn't take anywhere near an hour to test an individual cell.  All you need is a voltmeter for most types, starting from a charged pack.  If you want to be more complicated, there are more thorough testers, but they should all be fast.  Or if not, be able to test an entire battery pack at once.

A good analogy would be the lifters in a small block Chevy.  Replacing the lifter is no big deal once you get to it, and the part is relatively inexpensive.

Or it could be like spark plugs, where it's not really difficult at all.  Most battery packs are located under the trunk/passanger seat, it shouldn't be that difficult to get to it.

Not by much.  Run the numbers and the "break even" it's still much longer than most of us will ever own a vehicle.

Remember that most hybrids get better city mileage than highway mileage, normally get a few more mpg highway than a non-hybrid, and a LOT more city.

Thus, an inner-city cab pits the best parts of a hybrid up against the worst parts of a traditional gas vehicle, plus puts enough miles on quickly enough to overcome the cost of capital and time dedregation of the batteries.  It helped that we were looking at car hybrids where the price difference was ~$3k, not ~$10k.

Still - ford's site lists combined mileage as 23 for the standard and 32 for the hybrid.  Slightly different than Nick's numbers, but we know about realworld and EPA estimates.  Still, I'll go with them because that's what I have.  I WILL use Nick's price difference, though Ford only has the 'Comparably Equipped Price' at $5k price difference($4k base).  Right now I figure they're discounting the standard types while they can still charge MSRP on the hybrids.
Eh - let's check different numbers.
$4k Base price - 1000 gallons, EPA estimate
(X / 23) - (X / 32) = 1000, 81.8k miles to break even
'Cabbie' - $5k difference, 1250 gallons, 20mpg vs 34 mpg(100% city)
(X / 20) - (x / 34) = 1250, 60.7k break even.

I have to go now, I might post some more estimates when I get back.

[Scout26]

They are for people that FEEL, not for people that THINK.

[Brad Johnson]

If it takes an hour per cell they designed the pack wrong.  Call it an hour to pull the battery out of the car and put it or a replacement back in,

Try replacing an upper left O2 sensor or a right rear shock absorber on a 98-02 Crown Vic and get back to me on that "if it isn't simple they designed it wrong" thing.  Shocks and oxygen sensors are a maintenance item, usually replaced every 30-50k.  They should be designed for easy replacement, right?  Surrrrrrre they are. 

If the battery packs are rated for 150k miles, I can almost guarantee the extended service interval will result serviceability coming in a distant second to design.  Count on working in, around, and through a LOT of irrelevant stuff when servicing those "easily replaceable" packs.  That will become especially true if hybrids become truly mainstream and are forced to be economically competitive in the open market.

Or it could be like spark plugs, where it's not really difficult at all.  Most battery packs are located under the trunk/passanger seat, it shouldn't be that difficult to get to it.

Bad analogy.  In most applications plugs require the removal of a simple dust shield to access them, if that much.  Plugs are also stand-alone items accessable as a single mechanical element without the need for further dissasembly or removel of accessories, parts, and body panels.  Battery packs may be located in the trunk or under the seat, but you still have to do more than pop off a dust shield to access them.  Plus, you don't have to worry about plug wires welding themselves to the body should you accidently let one of them drop.  Then there's the potential for future battery technologies to be a single sealed unit (a lot of potential, in fact, as economy standards force the adoption of smaller, lighter vehicles).

Remember that most hybrids get better city mileage than highway mileage, normally get a few more mpg highway than a non-hybrid, and a LOT more city.

What I hear from local hybrid owners tends to contradict that.  Though they do get slightly better economy with their hybrid, it isn't the "Oh My God look at this!!" that some marketing would have you believe.  Two people in my office bought hybrids.  Neither would buy them again if given the option of an equivalent gas or diesel powered vehicle.

Brad