I replaced my unit last year, and just about every tech I talked to said that either Trane or Carrier is about the best choice for price vs. performance. Fewer problems, and easy to service if there is a problem. Plus, Trane is made right here in Texas! Lennox was the first choice if price was no object.
If your house is relatively energy efficient then a 2.5 ton unit should be fine. If you have an older home or a lot of people going in/out all the time then it might be better to get a 3 ton. Also consider a 13 SEER unit. It's only a little more than a 10 or 11 SEER and it will return benefits in the form of a slight, but noticeable, reduction in energy bills. Anything rated higer than 13 SEER will tend to be very pricey, and the savings in utilities is normally not enought to justify the extra expense even over the long term.
Also, consider an extra $500 or so to have more insulation installed in your attic. About 60% of the heat migration in your home it through the ceiling. Adding a little extra insulation there can make a HUGE difference in your heating and cooling bills.
Just FYI, my electricity bill in the summer months used to be right at $170. With the installation of my new HVAC unit, a programmable thermostat, and an extra 8" of blown-in insulation, my highest electric bill since has been $105. Overall I'm averaging about a 40% savings in energy bills. I figure the upgrades will pay for themselves in 6 years (71 months, to be exact).
Brad