Well, there are "proxy" temps derived from various other parameters, and these show a rather noisy cycle, something like 11-14Ka (thousands of years) within the larger 400Ka record. But within those gross major cycles there were rather sharp random-looking excursions within much shorter periods.
So even when there's a general up or down trend in those longer cycles, there are spikes, both up and down, in shorter time periods.
My objection to the global warming "panic," if you will, is that this so-called sudden rise in temperatures over the short period that we've had actual primary temperature records, might well be just one of those between-major-cycle spikes.
In other words, it's the sample size of only about 200 years from which they've got "real" data from actual thermometers that's causing all the hand-wringing and doomsday predictions about a "hockey-stick" shaped upward excursion of temperatures. This, as Hawkmoon has already pointed out. However, I have previously stated that "It's the sample size, stupid!" right here on this board as well as others.
Now I realize that Chaos Theory says that sometimes even small changes down in the 19th (or 119th) decimal place can trigger large changes in many kinds of phenomena, but the long-term results usually return to the norm around the "attractor," as Chaos Theorists put it. Beyond pointing this out, though, I'm not saying more, because I'm still in Chaos Theory 101 --and failing the class.
However, it needs to be said. at least as another parameter that should be considered.
But for me, my objection remains, that the tiny, tiny little sample of 200-250 years of temperature readings out of 400 thousand years doesn't tell us enough to mandate stupid California new gas can regulations and Compact Flourescent Lamps... with the atttendant extra dollars out of my pocket, as well as removing my decision-making capability on so many other things.
I see "global warming" as nonsense.
As I recall, there were predictions several decades ago that we were indeed heading into another little ice age.
But I guess in those days, scientists were scientists instead of political toadies.
There. I said it and I ain't takin' it back.
Terry, 230RN
