Author Topic: America's gun culture - fading slowly?  (Read 7506 times)

SteveS

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America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« on: January 14, 2008, 04:50:07 AM »
From the following article:

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL099229120080111?sp=true

Quote
This is a little-reported phenomenon but the trend is shown clearly by statistics compiled by the University of Chicago's National Opinion Research Center (NORC), which has been tracking gun ownership and attitudes on firearms since 1972, the longest-running survey on the subject in the United States.

The number of households with guns dropped from a high of 54 percent in 1977 to 34.5 percent in 2006, according to NORC, and the percentage of Americans who reported personally owning a gun has shrunk to just under 22 percent.

This seems to contradict what I have heard from other sources that put gun ownership on the rise.  Who is right?
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The Rabbi

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #1 on: January 14, 2008, 05:09:21 AM »
The study is probably correct.  With urbanization especially fewer guns are sold every year.  The average hunter is a white man in his 50s and 60s.  I have often commented that a gun shop like mine is a dying business.
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Manedwolf

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #2 on: January 14, 2008, 05:37:13 AM »
Honestly, if someone came up with a survey and asked if I had guns, I'd say "No."

What business is it of theirs? How do I know what their agenda is, or who they'll sell the information to? Who these days wants their name in some big database along with "has guns"? I'd be willing to bet that a lot of gun owners feel the same way, now. Perhaps once upon a time, someone could grin and reply proudly as to what guns they have. Now, it could be an anti-gun agenda group, it could be someone that's going to sell the database, and the data could be hacked, stolen and used by criminals to shop for gun owners' houses.

Gun purchases went way up after Katrina, that's for sure. And the web has allowed people to buy from low-cost retailers like CDNN, with a local kitchen-table FFL just doing the transfer for $10-$30.

Gun culture? Yeah, maybe that's fading, if you're talking about hunting and "public collectors" who sit in a gun shop talking about what they have. Gun ownership? I think that's way up in these times when people are realizing that the cops and government can't protect them. You just don't see it, because people are quiet about it. They buy that SIG, Glock or snubbie, AK or AR, practice with it, or not, and keep it at home in case something bad happens.


grampster

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2008, 05:42:15 AM »
Perhaps a report such as that is a blessing in disguise.  The gun grabbers feelings are assuaged, their self righteousness is confirmed and they begin to back off trying to make more draconian gun laws.
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K Frame

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #4 on: January 14, 2008, 05:52:07 AM »
Or, they're emboldened.

Fewer people own guns, which means we have a greater possibility of winning more converts to our "gun free is violence free" fantasy land.


"The number of households with guns dropped from a high of 54 percent in 1977 to 34.5 percent in 2006..."

I don't buy that for a minute. That's a huge drop in 30 years, far greater than what I think can be reasonably expected.
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Manedwolf

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #5 on: January 14, 2008, 05:53:46 AM »
Or, they're emboldened.

Fewer people own guns, which means we have a greater possibility of winning more converts to our "gun free is violence free" fantasy land.


"The number of households with guns dropped from a high of 54 percent in 1977 to 34.5 percent in 2006..."

I don't buy that for a minute. That's a huge drop in 30 years, far greater than what I think can be reasonably expected.

I don't buy the number, myself. Is that number of households with guns, or number of households who admitted to having guns to an anonymous survey person?

I just think that in the age of identity theft and left-wing mumbles about "higher insurance for people with a gun in the house", people don't reveal that fact so openly anymore. And that could account for the drop. IMO. 

My state has no registration. Unless someone is shuffling through all the 4473's, there's no way they can accurately know how many guns are being sold by FFLs. And it's a lot...every single time I go in Riley's, there's at least two people buying defensive handguns. That, plus face to face sales are legal here.

Or the antis could have just pulled the number out of a posterior orifice in hopes of, as you said, giving the impression that the "tide" is on their side, which from what I see, it's not.

RocketMan

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #6 on: January 14, 2008, 05:56:59 AM »
I'd like to see the curve.
Also, look at the source of the survey.  Does their being a University of Chicago organization affect their credibility, have an effect on the type of poll conducted?
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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2008, 06:01:43 AM »
Additionally, in many circles, it is not politically correct to be a gun owner.  On many occassions, I've been at a party and had someone say to me in teh course of conversation "Well, you don't have a gun in your home, do you?"  And, while I am proud to be an owner, and a supporter of RKBA, I will admit that many times I deny owning a gun.  Many times, it's at an event or in circumstances where I just don't want to debate the merits.

And, I must agree, that if I got a phone call asking me if I owned a gun, from someone I didn't know, my answer would likely be no, for fear of theft or something else.

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #8 on: January 14, 2008, 06:02:01 AM »
Or, they're emboldened.

Fewer people own guns, which means we have a greater possibility of winning more converts to our "gun free is violence free" fantasy land.


"The number of households with guns dropped from a high of 54 percent in 1977 to 34.5 percent in 2006..."

I don't buy that for a minute. That's a huge drop in 30 years, far greater than what I think can be reasonably expected.
I agree there are plenty of uncounted guns.  People lie for reasons Manedwolf gives.  People also dont know.  Grandma kept a Colt Dick by the bedside and no one knew about it.  This happens pretty often.
OTOH, the sales figures dont lie and my best recollection is that fewer guns get sold every year.
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Finch

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #9 on: January 14, 2008, 07:40:58 AM »
Quote
So, by the rules of democratic play, one might assume that the majority would have major influence on legislation

Well it's a good thing we don't live in a democracy. This Constitutional Republic thins seems to be quite nice.
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CAnnoneer

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #10 on: January 14, 2008, 07:54:00 AM »
Whom did they survey? Did they just limit themselves to a few major metropolitan areas, especially some of which having different versions of a gun ban? Which types of guns did they survey about?

Judging by whom I see in the local Turner's store, I'd say there are many more young to middle-aged buyers than old farts. The old farts generally buy rifle ammo or some weird scope. The young ones buy 1911s, XDs, and sometimes shotguns and rifles. The middle-aged ones buy predominantly bolt-action hunting rifles and accessories, but also Sigs and Walthers. The women all buy pistols.

I'd also have to second the surreptition argument above. Many gunowners are just intimidated into avoiding to admit or straight-out denying to be ones in a social setting. I have colleagues that I never suspected to be ones until they admitted it privately in a very small circle. Hollywood and libtards have managed to produce a social stigma to it, at least within "liberal strongholds".

HankB

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #11 on: January 14, 2008, 07:57:50 AM »
When I lived in Chicago, if anyone asked in a survey whether or not my household had any guns, I would have said "No."

As would most other Chicago gun owners I knew. police

And many people - myself included - simply don't take surveys any more, particularly telephone surveys.

I think this gun ownership survey is less accurate and reliable than the political polls that showed B. Hussein Obama beating Hillary in the NH primary by a double digit margin.
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RadioFreeSeaLab

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #12 on: January 14, 2008, 08:30:19 AM »
Among my family and friends, the gun culture is growing.

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2008, 08:35:31 AM »
Among my family and friends, the gun culture is growing.
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The sales figures do not lie.
http://www.amfire.com/php/container.php?content=../htm/statistics/production1973-2004.htm
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RadioFreeSeaLab

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #14 on: January 14, 2008, 08:45:19 AM »
I wasn't arguing with the original point, just pointing out that some of us are doing our best to help the cause.

AJ Dual

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #15 on: January 14, 2008, 09:00:25 AM »
Among my family and friends, the gun culture is growing.
"All my friends voted for Stevenson, so why isn't he President??"

The sales figures do not lie.
http://www.amfire.com/php/container.php?content=../htm/statistics/production1973-2004.htm

Well one issue is that firearms are a very durable good. They also tend to be considered valuable so more often than not, people try not to lose them, or at least actively mistreat them. Look at the majority of junk even $100 cash, not silly coupon or voucher, buy-backs garner. And as 1911 owners like to point out, there hasn't been much if any change in the basic technology of firearms beyond cosmetics, ergonomics, and accessories for almost a century now. Even the "modern" combat rifle with plastic furniture and a non-stressed receiver is approaching the fifty-year mark. A 100 year old .38 special or (soon) century-mark 1911, given even the most basic modicum of care, or simply left alone in a clement environment will on average work almost exactly as well as it's modern equivalent.

Granted, those 100 year old firearms are better off as collectors pieces, lest you ruin the value, but when you add in the millions upon millions of firearms from the 1950's and onward which are more prone to have "utility" rather than "collectability", one can begin to see the problem.

So while market saturation may be a conundrum for the industry, I'm not sure it says a whole lot about the trend of firearms ownership overall. When a 1960's Model 70 will in slay a deer with the exact same efficacy as a 2000's Ruger, or Tikka, or a 1950's S&W slay a robber as well as a 1990's Glock or HK, turnover in the market would naturally be impacted.

Perhaps it should be considered remarkable that the firearms industry still sells as much as they do.
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Manedwolf

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #16 on: January 14, 2008, 09:14:56 AM »
Quote
And as 1911 owners like to point out, there hasn't been much if any change in the basic technology of firearms beyond cosmetics, ergonomics, and accessories for almost a century now.

Well, not for 1911s, no. The rest of the guns have moved on.  grin

K Frame

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #17 on: January 14, 2008, 09:28:07 AM »
"And as 1911 owners like to point out, there hasn't been much if any change in the basic technology of firearms beyond cosmetics, ergonomics, and accessories for almost a century now."

Say what?

Polymers, composits, and new alloys are significant changes beyond cosmetics, ergonomics, and accessories.
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mtnbkr

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #18 on: January 14, 2008, 09:33:54 AM »
"And as 1911 owners like to point out, there hasn't been much if any change in the basic technology of firearms beyond cosmetics, ergonomics, and accessories for almost a century now."
Say what?
Polymers, composits, and new alloys are significant changes beyond cosmetics, ergonomics, and accessories.

The basic engineering is about the same.  When you get down to it, all guns within a particular class work the same.  There are a few notable differences here and there, but the differences are mostly minor.  There isn't a "killer app" in the gun world. 

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #19 on: January 14, 2008, 09:36:26 AM »
Like a few others have said, if someone on the street doing a random survery were to ask me if I owned firearms, I'd answer no.
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HankB

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #20 on: January 14, 2008, 09:49:55 AM »
Among my family and friends, the gun culture is growing.
"All my friends voted for Stevenson, so why isn't he President??"

The sales figures do not lie.
http://www.amfire.com/php/container.php?content=../htm/statistics/production1973-2004.htm

Well one issue is that firearms are a very durable good.
I own, and enjoy using, firearms that are older than I am . . . and that includes "modern" guns such as .357 Magnums and semi-automatic .30/06 rifles.

Firearm sales are cyclical - they went up sharply for certain types in the '90s - but they go down again once the market is saturated. And it's hard to sell into a saturated market - which is why gunmakers are coming up with things like .17 rimfires and "short" magnums - something NEW and EXCITING to lure shoppers in. (And some of these are just ridiculous - I recently read about a black powder muzzleloader . . . with electronic ignition!)
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K Frame

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #21 on: January 14, 2008, 09:56:17 AM »
Yes, the basic engineering is the same.

The basic engineering on Robert Goddard's first liquid fueled rockets is the same as what was found on the Saturn rockets that took Alice Kramden to the moon.

Hell, when you get right down to it, today's handguns share much basic engineering with a 16th century matchlock, and your Camry shares basic engineering with a Scythian 4-wheeled funeral chariot.

Just because the basic engineering is the same doesn't mean that there haven't been major advances in the technology behind the engineering.
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mtnbkr

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #22 on: January 14, 2008, 10:29:57 AM »
No, not really.

Your original comment concerned materials.  Materials are not as significant a change as the functional design of a piece (to keep with your comparison of 20th century arms with 16th century arms or 20th century automobiles with whatever age a Scythian 4-wheeled chariot is...)

Regardless of the materials, a revolver is essentially the same as any other revolver.  A steel j-frame is functionally the same as an alloy model.  Your comparisons do not apply in this case.

Chris

AJ Dual

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #23 on: January 14, 2008, 10:39:35 AM »
Yes, but the swing-out DA/SA revolver and the Browning-inspired locked breech semi-automatic pistol are much much closer than the other examples you cite. That fraction of "basic engineering" that's still included is much much higher in firearms. And the more minor evolutionary advances in firearms are also more likely to appeal or set themselves apart in the minds of firearms enthusiasts like us, and not the general population.

The problem with trying to compare cars, planes, and rockets is that the additional features grant completely new or expanded capabilities that are very significant against the basic function of the device. Airbags protect you in a crash, fuel injection extends mileage. The jet gets you there faster than the propeller. The space shuttle is "reusable" and lands like an aircraft over the single-use Saturn V (I know, don't get me started on the economics of it, purely an engineering example with that last one...)

For the record, while I like antiques too, my biggest desires are for modern firearms like Glock, HK, AR's etc., but no matter how much polymer, high end corrosion resistance, ergonomic upgrades like ambidextrous controls, lasers, lights, or tritium night-sights you put on it. The most modern .45 ACP you can think of ultimately does exactly the same thing as a 96 year-old 1911.

Throw a .45 caliber slug downrange between 850 and 1100 fps at the target. Polyganal rifling may add a few FPS, better steel may allow higher pressure rounds, the sights better aim, but none of the others will make that bullet fly better or father.

Although what you say about the advances in the technology behind the engineering do make me wonder if things like polymer over metal frames, and CNC machining, MIM parts etc. (and even simpler things like expired patents) has enabled to firearms industry to increase their profits and maintain it's relative health overall, against historically smaller sales.


 
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Manedwolf

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Re: America's gun culture - fading slowly?
« Reply #24 on: January 14, 2008, 10:44:36 AM »
I think materials make a difference in advancement, alright. Put a Cor-Bon 45 LC +P in an original Colt Single Action Army and watch what happens. Put a Ranger +P+ 9mm in an early Luger and watch what happens.

And yes, there have been notable advancements. Transfer bars, all sorts of other things. And there's the occasional total-departure innovation, like my P7.

Saying that nothing has changed, to me, is like saying that a new turboprop business aircraft is the same as an early 20th century monoplane because they both have propellers and the same design of aileron and rudder.