America's gun culture - fading slowly?

[K Frame]

"whatever age a Scythian 4-wheeled chariot is..."

It was the Dodge Magnum of the 5th century BC...


Yes, the comparisons do apply.

A J frame revolver of 50 years ago is NOT exactly the same functionally as the J frame revolver of today.

Same with Rugers and Colts.


Ultimately, though, I think that any attempt to claim that firearms sales are down solely because there hasn't been an earthshattering movement forward in technology in 100 years is WAY off base.

[AJ Dual]

Saying that nothing has changed, to me, is like saying that a new turboprop business aircraft is the same as an early 20th century monoplane because they both have propellers and the same design of aileron and rudder.

I or no one else is arguing that nothing has changed. To me as a gun enthusiast I feel the advances are significant, and are certainly enough to keep me lusting after many new things I see. However I doubt we're in the majority.

I am arguing that from the standpoint of the average non-gun-nut consumer, things haven't changed enough. For Joe or Jane six-pack who wants a .38 for his nightstand, a J-frame blued steel .38 he may have inherited from his grandfather is not demonstrably different enough for him to go look up a new stainless Ruger SP-101, a S&W Scandium/Aluminum snubbie, or a Taurus with it's "Ribber" grips. Same thing if it was an old 1911, he'll look in the case and see prices of $500 up into the thousands for 1911's that don't look much different than his "free" one, or the one he bought 20 years ago, and will shoot the same .45 ACP from Wally-World's sporting goods counter.

Similar arguments for Joe deer-hunter and his grandfather's .30-'06 Model 70.

Guns last a long time. Markets reach saturation. Common mainstream calibers haven't changed much in the bulk of the past century, or fifty years, and all the really fundamental changes like caseless ammunition or electronic ignition primers haven't caught on. Man-portable ray guns, rail-guns, or coil-guns the same size or cost of chemical/kinetic firearms are nowhere to be seen.

For the sake of argument, assume that wear from daily use wasn't a factor. I know you drive a car every day, but don't necessarily shoot your gun (lucky dog if you do...). So here's an analogy: If cars didn't rust, or wore out at the average rate even neglected firearms do, and barring artificial external pressures like emissions laws, how many cars from the 50's, 60's, 70's, and 80's would still be on the road today despite all the advances?

[K Frame]

"how many cars from the 50's, 60's, 70's, and 80's would still be on the road today despite all the advances?"

A significant number.

But I'd wager that you'd also still see strong, healthy automobile sales simply because people are FAR more psychologically invested in their cars than they are in firearms. That psychology drives significant portions of the automotive market.

[mtnbkr]

AJ made the point I failed at miserably. 

The 1960-something M36 I used to own is functionally the same as my 2005 M37.  They both shoot the same 38 Special loads available on the market today.  For Joe Sixpack, who seldom shoots the gun, doesn't carry it, or doesn't even think about it, they are the same devices.  The "enhancements" aren't significant enough to justify a purchase (which is rather significant to a non-hobbyist) unless they meet some unfulfilled need.  Same goes for the guy who owns a mid 70s Winchester 70 vs a 2004 model 70.

Chris

[roo_ster]

The Rabbi:

I looked at the numbers you linked and put them in a spreadsheet.

The trend is unmistakable.

But, I am curious about imports.  I wonder if HK, Glock, Sig, Taurus, etc. make up the difference and the total number of new firearms produced/sold in America is not eroding.

[Matthew Carberry]

What's the mean, median and std. dev on those numbers?  Just wondering.

Since you've already got them in a spreadsheet and all... 

[HankB]

"how many cars from the 50's, 60's, 70's, and 80's would still be on the road today despite all the advances?"

A significant number.

But I'd wager that you'd also still see strong, healthy automobile sales simply because people are FAR more psychologically invested in their cars than they are in firearms. That psychology drives significant portions of the automotive market.

Given the price of cars, I think a LOT of people would be driving "classics" rather than laying out $30,000+ for a new ride. I'm personally on only my 4th vehicle in 30+ years; I only get rid of them when they rust out (quite a problem when I lived in the snow belt) or when the annual cost of repairs begins going up.

And a LOT of folks where I work - making good salaries - drive rather old cars, too. Very few buy or lease new every couple of years.

[wooderson]

Those firearm production numbers don't necessarily jibe with a 'decline in the gun culture' - all through the '80s and into the mid-90s, when the push for American gun control was at its most successful ('86, Brady Bill, AWB, state-to-state activities) production was increasing by the year.

And by those numbers, as well, handgun production has been on the rise of late - which coincides with the weakest 'gun control' groups have been in my lifetime.

To what extent does foreign manufacture play into these numbers? We're importing a lot of Glocks, CZs, HKs and Springfield XDs that are physically produced in Europe - do those get stamped as "US production" for the purposes of the production numbers.?

[roo_ster]

Code:

            Rifle Production          Shotgun Production              Revolver Production             Pistol Production           Total Production
                1,439,882                    1,025,466                         817,427                       930,809                  4,213,584             mean
                1,424,319                      935,541                         628,765                       815,960                  3,944,332             median
                  346,779                      270,658                         492,113                       434,686                    849,983             SD

Yeah, I put the anal in analysis.

[K Frame]

Thinking about this some more, there's another kicker in all this, too, that I don't think has been mentioned.

In 1986 the FOPA opened up the country to surplus firearms imports again, most of which had been shut out of the country since 1969.

The country was absolutely flooded with inexpensive foreign firearms, and we're still getting lots of cheap, decent firearms in.

I wonder how much that has impacted the production and sale of new firearms...

I still don't, however, buy the concept that people are buying fewer new firearms simply because, after 100 years, the guild is off the technological lilly and everyone is waiting for the barrelless, 25-mm handgun the size of a BIC lighter that will drive a slug at 15,000 fps using flembyontic cells...

[RevDisk]

I noticed those numbers were for domestic production.  Shotguns and revolvers are a bit down, but rifles and pistols are not.  Anyone have reliable numbers for import?  I own more foreign firearms than domestic myself.  Most folks I know with multiple firearms own a number of foreign rifles.  Heck, we've probably imported a million SKS's, AK clones and Mosin Nagents within the last few years.

Plus, the production just builds.  It's not very common to wear out or break a firearm.  Rusting from age is probably the greatest danger to modern firearms.

[commygun]

I remember a poll on CNN back in 1994 showing much the same numbers-gun ownership had dropped to the  mid-30's. Like many here I laughed at the notion that anyone would tell a stranger over the phone that they had guns in the house.

[BridgeWalker]

Shotguns: one of our is American-made and dates from the early 70's, the other is Italian made is about two or three years old
Rifles: one is American-made and dates from the late 70's, the other two are Russian and dates from the thirties and forties respectively.

Manufacturing numbers don't show much, imho.

[gaston_45]

"The number of households with guns dropped from a high of 54 percent in 1977 to 34.5 percent in 2006..."

I don't buy that for a minute. That's a huge drop in 30 years, far greater than what I think can be reasonably expected.

Actually, that part could be true if you also look at the divorce rates for the same period.  Women own guns less often so every divorce where the woman doesn't take guns with her creates one more non gun owning household.  Since they already would have counted the married household as gun owning that number doesn't also rise.

[K Frame]

"The number of households with guns dropped from a high of 54 percent in 1977 to 34.5 percent in 2006..."

I don't buy that for a minute. That's a huge drop in 30 years, far greater than what I think can be reasonably expected.

Actually, that part could be true if you also look at the divorce rates for the same period.  Women own guns less often so every divorce where the woman doesn't take guns with her creates one more non gun owning household.  Since they already would have counted the married household as gun owning that number doesn't also rise.

Hummm...

Now that's an interesting theory...

[bunni]

Thinking about this some more, there's another kicker in all this, too, that I don't think has been mentioned.

In 1986 the FOPA opened up the country to surplus firearms imports again, most of which had been shut out of the country since 1969.

The country was absolutely flooded with inexpensive foreign firearms, and we're still getting lots of cheap, decent firearms in.

I wonder how much that has impacted the production and sale of new firearms...

You may have hit on something there - at all my local ranges in the last couple of years I notice that the youngest guys and gals (those in my age range, early 20s) are firing primarily cheap surplus rifles - college kids with SKS's and a whole lot of Mosin Nagants (since Big 5 started carrying them)... I've usually got the only lever action on the range, and the only American rifle aside from some CA friendly AR builds...

[Manedwolf]

You may have hit on something there - at all my local ranges in the last couple of years I notice that the youngest guys and gals (those in my age range, early 20s) are firing primarily cheap surplus rifles - college kids with SKS's and a whole lot of Mosin Nagants (since Big 5 started carrying them)... I've usually got the only lever action on the range, and the only American rifle aside from some CA friendly AR builds...

Since when are all lever-actions US-made, even? Mine is a Rossi Puma 92 made in Brazil.