This post is (IMO) Pretty much entirely wrong.
1. Cops might, as long as the first targets picked are the "right low lifes". The Military won't. Or not in big enough numbers to make a difference. In my dealings with the Army, both Active and Reserve, conservatively, 85% or so say that the order to search houses domestically (for anything really) is the "go off the reservation" threshold. The lessons of Katrina were not lost on us. Again, careful target picking early on might help the numbers but not by much.
2. Balk is not the reaction that get's thrown around discussions among Military officers. More like "We need to actively intervene and stop LE from doing this."
3. and 4. Many will take off, and/or get replaced. Then you will have a new LEO/Military force that is untrained, with no experience, and none of the Esprit de Corps and history that makes the US military strong, facing an insurgent US military.
4b. I think it will. The folks that forced those ROE are on the other side, and will even more desperatly need to try and assure the public that everything is OK. ROE (on their side) will be stupid.
Second paragraph:
1. They can always print that money, but it might be hard to spend and worth less.
2 and 3 will end quickly.
The flip side is that the current .mil folks that counter this know how to run an insurgency, know how to (and how not to) fight one, and will be both pissed off, and not really expecting to survive. I think you would see the insurgents pretty quickly doing things like: Organized ambushes against LEO, Targeted assassinations of prominent figures, Personal attacks against troops doing the search/oppressing. (Things like they go to work in the morning to take some guns, and their house is burned down).
Bottom line, it would be much uglier, much faster than I think anyone but the folks with guns now realize. Millions would probably die. Whatever emerged from the fire would not be the same country we have today.
I sure hope you're right.
I have my doubts.
A. When I was in, I had a poor opinion of the military's brass. I think the military's brass has degenerated since then.
B. Waco. Tell the .mil that the "bad guys" shot up some LEOs serving a legal warrant, they are diddling kiddies, and are millenial religious fanatics, and you can get them to break out the APCs against folks who never made a hostile move toward anyone, save the day they were attacked. And then burn them alive. Military types won't have a choice: obey or face UCMJ. LEO types will have a choice: obey or lose your job, pension, and the means to support your family.
C. Any active disobedience, monkey-wrenching, or outright attacks vs unconstitutional orders and those doing the ordering by junior officers would require commo. Good luck pulling off a junior officer-led Valkyrie-ish operation when the NSA & Co are up your fourth point of contact with a boom mic. And to attack, say, FBI agents and locals doing the heavy lifting? Not likely that an infantry captain will sign off drawing weapons from the arms room and the training ammo to run down to the local cop shop or federal building and do some door kicking.
D. How much esprit de corps do you need to slaughter or intimidate most civilians? Have you seen the slobs that call themselves SWAT in many places in this country? I recall a former Marine was shot up by some over-eager SWATties, but what I recall the most about it was the unprofessional way in which they did their job. Fit not to take down a dangerous man, but only against non-resisting or poorly prepared drug dealers.
I don't think we're at risk for any meaningful gun control.
BUT...
if it happened, everyone's little Bracken-fantasy would not be how it went down. They're not going to go door-to-door taking guns. They will simply become illegal and you'll be given a window to turn them in. After that, you get caught with one and it's Fed prison time. So you kept yours and hid it in your attic? What for? You didn't put it to use and you can't practice with it now. In 50 years your grandkids will find it and post up on TFL asking what to do with Grandpa's old AR from back when they were illegal. It'll be like an unregistered full-auto rifle today. No way to make it legal, no way to use it legally. It'll become an albatross around your neck. Confiscation by attrition.
Chris
I can count the number of riots/uprisings due to Somdude being prosecuted under the 1934 NFA and 1968 GCA with no hands.
