Overestimating your enemy can be just as dangerous. Wahabis need to be stomped on, but we've dumped several trillion dollars into unrelated activities. Plus sharply reduced our own freedom. Making us less in a position to combat terrorism.
An example of overestimation. Suitcase nukes are basically an urban legend. The correct name is a linear implosion type weapons, and commonly referred as atomic demolitions. The most advanced linear implosion nuclear munitions are a 100 lbs and have a fraction of a kiloton yield. The more common ones were 150 lbs plus, had minimal shielding, and a <2kt yield. Radiation detectors can pick them up with ease, because they emit like no tomorrow. If you had your own AF and short duration operational, not so much of a problem. Plus nuclear weapons do have shelf lives, it varies depending on type and maintenance. Russian surplus warheads would not be very useful unless refurbished, which takes a fairly advanced technological base. Linear implosion weapons would be basically more useful as radiological weapons rather than proper nuclear weapons, because a tractor trailer filled with any RDX explosive would be a lot more dangerous.
Pakistan does not have the technical ability to make compact linear implosion nuclear weapons, and won't for a few decades of advanced research.
This is sorta the example I have used in the past when government officials were trying to BS people. They did not like me mentioning this information at a disaster management symposium. Again, dangers of propaganda and overestimation used as invalid excuses.
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The most difficult part of making a nuke is to get the fissile material in a state ready to be used as a weapon.
The barrel of a howitzer is sufficient to make the rest.
A simple fission device is easy (aside from procuring the fissile stuff). The bomb used on Hiroshima may be puny by today's standards but it blew up Hiroshima just fine.
There is controversy surrounding the SADM (suitcase nukes) because some Soviet ones may (or may not) have gone missing. Apparantly there are controversies surrounding inventory ##s and no one really knows. Prior to Al Qaeda's rise to pop culture status
![[tinfoil]](http://www.armedpolitesociety.com/Smileys/default/hat-tin-foil-smiley.gif "Tinfoil Hat Smiley")
there were ....mysterious stories (usually on late night radio) about SADMs being covertly planted in America.
I don't know if those stories are true or not. I really don't care.
"Over" estimating or "under" estimating the enemy. IMNSHO many people "over" estimated our enemies in WW2. Neither the Germans or the Japanese were going to invade America, despite the fears of many who lived in that era. But after the war was over and we were privy to what the Germans & Japs had in store should the war have lasted longer, and the story changes.
The Germans had no weapons that could reach from Germany to America, let alone a return trip. But they had them on the drawing board -- and they had nukes on the drawing board.
The Japanese as well. They had a nuclear program and a better atomic fuse than anything we had, but no fissile material. That deficit was almost rectified by the Nazis, who sent them some via U-boot during the war. Thankfully we managed to intercept that particular sub and thus thwart the Japanese. Had the Japs develop the means to build and deliver a atomic bomb they had plans (it's part of the historical record) to hit San Francisco.
And I think the Nazis would have loved to hit New York and/or Washington DC.
Are you privy to what AQ intends to do ten, twenty years from now? Are you in a position to provide a guesstimate about what their abilities will be by then?
I am not trying to say it's a rock-solid cinch AQ is going to win this war, obliterate America, nuke Washington (that would actually be more of a favor than a act of war these days anyway) or anything. I don't know what the future will be any more than anyone else. I just don't like it that we seem to be taking it for granted that wahabiists are no longer a big threat to America, that we're winding down in A'stan and peace is at hand. We
HAVEN'T won the war.
There are a lot of good questions about how to do that....whatever. I'm not up to getting into all that right now anyway as other events are distracting me.....let's just say I "get" the problems, I haven't any ultra-brilliant solutions for them right now....and leave it at that. For now atleast.
