"And a lot of people will not tell pollsters they wouldn't vote for Obama because they dont want to be seen as racists. But in the privacy of the voting booths it will be different."
If that were the case, he would not be winning in the primaries, where ppl are alone in the voting booth.
Judging by the results in the primaries, it will be McStain against Obama. To win, McStain has to mobilize the right and win over independents, while hoping at least some democrats stay home. To win, Obama does not need to do anything but do what he has been doing. I think Obama will have a much easier time, and therefore is the likely winner.
The problem with McStain and his supporters is that they think that a RINO will be more electable than a true conservative. They think they can somehow appease or beguile independents and social-democrats into switching to him as a unifier candidate. Except that does not work. There is so much animosity against Bush and the Republicans that none of that is likely to happen.
The Repub's best shot was to run a conservative, mobilize the base, get the conservative independent vote, then spend tons of money educating the electorate how hollow and inexperienced Obama is, while also secretly funding Nader so he can go steal some liberal votes away from Obama. That would have worked. Instead they ran a long line of flawed candidates who managed to squabble and dilute their message until now the pinkest RINO is about to lose the election big time. Stupidity is not a survivalist trait.