VA Governor Election Prediction

[DittoHead]

It doesn't matter who votes or how they vote, what matters is who counts the ballots.

A lot of people have been saying that kind of thing lately, but thankfully most of them they still vote anyway. That leads me to suspect they don't entirely believe it themselves but it's an easy way to deal with difficult electoral losses. Doesn't matter much to me, I'm going to keep voting (and helping count the votes).

[K Frame]

I voterized this morning.

Virginia still requires state-issued IDs to vote, apparently.

My God I feel disenfranchised!

Looking at the list here: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/media/formswarehouse/voter-id/outreach-materials/documents/Voter-Identification-Chart-Rev-4-28-21.pdf

Hum... I think next year I may use my Virginia-issued CCW as my voter ID.

[Ben]

Well, McAuliffe seems to be doubling down on his "parents are stupid" theme during his election day final push. Randi Weingarten.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mcauliffes-decision-to-have-weingarten-speak-at-rally-mocked-by-republicans

[Unisaw]

My wife and I just voted. Despite rain, the parking lot was so full that we had to wait for someone to leave.

[K Frame]

Got an e-mail last night from "Terry."

Guess who that might be?

It was nothing but a rage-a-holic e-mail screaming and crying about Trump doing a virtual rally in Virginia ending with a plea for $500,000 dollars to help fight it!

Got to admit, it made me laugh... HARD.

It's looking more and more that Virginia Dem's attempts to terrorize the state with the spectre of Trump is turning out to be largely a failure.

But Youngkin is scoring hard hits with his using McAuliffe's comments on parents and education.

This is going to be a fun evening.

[RocketMan]

Well, McAuliffe seems to be doubling down on his "parents are stupid" theme during his election day final push. Randi Weingarten.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mcauliffes-decision-to-have-weingarten-speak-at-rally-mocked-by-republicans

I remember a time when the AFT was considered to be a rational alternative to the NEA hard left leanings.

[Unisaw]

Our voting district had a school board seat on the ballot with only the incumbent listed on the ballot.  However, the incumbent is Chairman of the School Board, which has gone full-in on racial/sexual identity, etc.  A write-in candidate jumped into the race in August on a platform of making sure parents have a voice in what their children are taught.  The write-in candidate seems to be fairly popular and it will be very interesting to see if the current School Board Chairman is voted out.

[RocketMan]

I feel sorry for my daughter and her family as they live in VA and have to put up with all the crap going on there.  It's not going to change any time soon, especially if McAuliffe is re-elected as I suspect he will be.

[DittoHead]

"Right after 7 p.m. we are going to push a button, and it's going to produce a report with all those results in it, and that's a change from past practice. We're going to release the early votes and the absentee votes first thing," said Konopasek.

"So we're not going to have that big drop at 11 or 10 p.m. of all kind of votes. Those are going to be early, everyone's going to know what those counts are, and then we'll build on that with results from the precincts," he said.

During last year's presidential election, it was late in the evening when Fairfax County released the results from its early and absentee ballots. Those results essentially gave President Biden the votes he needed to win the state, after Donald Trump appeared to be leading in Virginia earlier in the night.

"I wasn't here last year, but I understand there was a lot of confusion and a lot of concern about late arriving, hundreds of thousands of votes that were reported," said Konopasek. "So in an effort for transparency and to increase voters' confidence, we have retooled our processes and timelines.

That seems like a better way to do it.

[RocketMan]

Quote from: https://wjla.com/news/elections/early-absentee-voting-results-will-now-be-released-first-on-va-election-day-heres-why
"Right after 7 p.m. we are going to push a button, and it's going to produce a report with all those results in it, and that's a change from past practice. We're going to release the early votes and the absentee votes first thing," said Konopasek.

"So we're not going to have that big drop at 11 or 10 p.m. of all kind of votes. Those are going to be early, everyone's going to know what those counts are, and then we'll build on that with results from the precincts," he said.

During last year's presidential election, it was late in the evening when Fairfax County released the results from its early and absentee ballots. Those results essentially gave President Biden the votes he needed to win the state, after Donald Trump appeared to be leading in Virginia earlier in the night.

"I wasn't here last year, but I understand there was a lot of confusion and a lot of concern about late arriving, hundreds of thousands of votes that were reported," said Konopasek. "So in an effort for transparency and to increase voters' confidence, we have retooled our processes and timelines.

That seems like a better way to do it.

VA election officials warned last week that counting will likely go late into the week with results not known until Friday.  They are setting things up for fraud.

[Ben]

Decision Desk calls it for Youngkin.

https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1455695493284171776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1455695493284171776%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitchy.com%2Fbrettt-3136%2F2021%2F11%2F02%2Fdecision-desk-hq-calls-virginia-for-glenn-youngkin%2F

In the meantime, for some reason the McAuliffe campaign, rather than the elections officials, have announced things will be delayed because "votes are being rescanned".

https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2021/11/02/mccauliffes-campaign-says-fairfax-county-results-could-be-delayed-as-early-votes-need-to-be-rescanned/

[WLJ]

Cue the "lost" ballots

[Northwoods]

74% in and Youngkin up by 8.5 points according to NPR’s live results.  But Fairfax county, by far the largest, is also the slowest at reporting and currently is a D+32 margin.

Fat lady ain’t singing yet by any stretch of her yoga pants.

[RocketMan]

I stand by my prediction that McAuliffe will be the next governor of VA.

[Northwoods]

4% lead for Youngkin with 88% reporting.

[RocketMan]

Fairfax county is rescanning all early voting ballots.  The claim is that there was an out of date or defective memory card in the machine used to scan those ballots.  GOP lawyers signed off on the rescan being done.
Over 100,000 ballots to rescan, and Youngkin's lead is about 90,000 votes at this point with about 10% of the precincts remaining, plus those early voting ballots in Fairfax county that run heavily Democrat.
I'm going to say McAuliffe will be declared the winner by a very narrow margin by morning.

edit:

Youngkin's lead has narrowed to a smidge over 3%, with a 94,457 margin.  Twelve percent of precincts remain to be counted, including I assume the early votes out of heavily Democrat Fairfax county.

[Northwoods]

I'm going to say McAuliffe will be declared the winner by a very narrow margin by morning.

If not they’ll get the count close enough for a recount.  That’ll give them enough time to “find” or just manufacture enough votes for a victory.

[DustinD]

I know you guys like guns and not having your children raped in bathrooms, but would you still vote red knowing that this is making McAuliffe's family and employees cry?

[RocketMan]

With 95% of precincts reporting, Youngkin still has a roughly 90k vote lead.  His margin is slightly below 3%.  McAuliffe reportedly did not show up at his election night party, but he still has not conceded.
Maybe I am going to dine on crow.  Hopefully I will.  However, I'm still going to wait an see what happens overnight with the Fairfax county recount.

[Northwoods]

If he loses it will be hubris making him think extensive cheating wasn’t necessary, like HRC in 2016.

[French G.]

Still can't be sure but politico and NPR, those right wing hate machines, called it.  Look at the locality splits, there are a couple of R +70 counties. Mine is last on the list but R +50. And I don't even like republicans. This isnt just about McAuliffe, or Brandon, and definitely not trump. Rural Virginia is really tired of getting screwed in state politics by the cities. Even in the rural black counties Terry didn't have a waltz, even the ones he won. Just cities. I am sure we will get screwed plenty more by the cities. Which is why I like my plan. Sure, DC statehood but original district boundaries. 

[Bogie]

I'm guessing that the folks most aligned toward cheating stood back, looked at the rest of the country, and said "You know... we really don't want to trigger Civil War II just yet..."

[French G.]

Regardless of if the watermain breaks, etc. This state went Biden +10 a year ago. Even a .2% victory by McAuliffe won't hide that. Either way, y'all screwed. I can't but help think this accelerates Biden's replacement, the unfortunate mysterious totally natural causes death of Supreme Breyer, etc. They know they can't wait until after midterms now.

[Angel Eyes]

[DustinD]

By my math in order for McAuliffe to win he would need 100% of the remaining vote and almost twice as many remaining votes as there are expected to be. That race is truly over.

Virginia Republicans gained a few house seats, still waiting to find out just how many. They nearly flipped the house though. A tie looks likely.

We managed to vote down a property tax increase to fund the schools in my town, this is two years after the last increase passed.

NJ swung way more right than anyone expected. 50.6 to 48.7 with 83% reported. Likely will end in a D win but it will be close.