Personal Income Migration

[Scout26]

Seems people are voting with their feet and moving from High tax states to low/no tax states.  Gov. Quinn are you paying attention?

[MillCreek]

Interesting that the general trend is people moving from cold states to warmer states.

[AZRedhawk44]

We're #2! We're #2!  We're #2!

Oh, wait...

[Scout26]

Means you're gaining folks.  Whether they are CA libtards who are coming to foul your nest just like they fouled their own in CA or folks escaping to find jobs and move personal freedom will be seen in the next few elections. 

We're #48.  Only states that people are fleeing fast is NY and CA.  It works out to only family with a U-haul crossing the IL border never to return every 10 minutes.

And then there's this fun CATO Study:

http://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/theworkversus.pdf

What you'd have to make in a private sector job to overcome the benefits of welfare, free Section 8 housing, EBT, etc.  By State.

[Scout26]

Interesting that the general trend is people moving from cold states to warmer states.

I wouldn't call MT, UT, CO, WY, ID, WA, OR, and SD "Warmer States."

[Azrael256]

Horrifying.

I see more commie state license plates every day.

[MillCreek]

I wouldn't call MT, UT, CO, WY, ID, WA, OR, and SD "Warmer States."

Maybe.  But I was struck by how the map represents a general trend of movement away from the cold upper Midwest and Northeast to the warmer Southeast and Southwest.  Kind of makes me doubt the premise of this being driven by taxes.

[RevDisk]

I'd be really tempted to move to a state with lower property costs if I could get a job that paid the same amount.

[makattak]

Maybe.  But I was struck by how the map represents a general trend of movement away from the cold upper Midwest and Northeast to the warmer Southeast and Southwest.  Kind of makes me doubt the premise of this being driven by taxes.

Errr... what? There are THREE, count them, three big draw states that happen to be in the south (part of the country for those that will be screaming about IT'S THE SOUTHWEST!): Texas, Arizona, and Florida. They also happen to have beneficial tax laws.

Look around the Northeast: everyone is fleeing the high tax states to the low ones: Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire. (Incidentally, those fleeing are moving NORTH from Massachusetts and New York.)

The South (that is growing) all tend to have laws that encourage such growth. The fact that California is one of the BIGGEST losers and has the absolute best climate in the contiguous states and has seen a MASS migration out rather belies your "impression". 

People used to go to California for opportunity AND the climate. The climate hasn't changed. Or, perhaps, I should say the weather hasn't changed. The economic climate certainly has.

[MillCreek]

http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20130728/BLOG48/707289938



I knew I had seen this a while back in my local paper.  Be sure to read the chart at the link, too. A lot of drivers from other 'tax paradises' moving to Washington.  So it makes me wonder if things like the job market, temperature, the local economy etc. are stronger drivers of migration than taxes.  My wife's family is from Flint, Michigan, and they say people are moving out because of the collapse of GM and the few jobs left in the auto industry.  I see that a lot of the purple states are the former Rust Belt.

[makattak]

http://www.heraldnet.com/article/20130728/BLOG48/707289938



I knew I had seen this a while back in my local paper.  Be sure to read the chart at the link, too. A lot of drivers from other 'tax paradises' moving to Washington.  So it makes me wonder if things like the job market, temperature, the local economy etc. are stronger drivers of migration than taxes.  My wife's family is from Flint, Michigan, and they say people are moving out because of the collapse of GM and the few jobs left in the auto industry.  I see that a lot of the purple states are the former Rust Belt.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_population

The only very large one not explained mostly by proximity and/or total population is North Carolina. I am guessing the Boeing plant there might explain that.

[MillCreek]

I think that the original map may show correlation, but I need to see more evidence before I draw the conclusion that it shows causation, as well.  I think that migration within the USA is due to many factors, and are there peer-reviewed studies, washed by the tears of a unicorn, that actually demonstrate that local or state tax policy drives migration?  Is tax policy at best a proxy for other factors?

But of course, if the map supports your own bias, feel free to post up any old thing.  Someone famous said that.  

PS: The Boeing plant is in South Carolina.  Charleston.  I remember reading this on the picket signs when the machinists were picketing at my local Boeing plant.  I remember wondering if the influx from North Carolina represented transfers from Ft. Bragg and other military bases in the state to Ft. Lewis.

[makattak]

I think that the original map may show correlation, but I need to see more evidence before I draw the conclusion that it shows causation, as well.  I think that migration within the USA is due to many factors, and are there peer-reviewed studies, washed by the tears of a unicorn, that actually demonstrate that local or state tax policy drives migration?  Is tax policy at best a proxy for other factors?

But of course, if the map supports your own bias, feel free to post up any old thing.  Someone famous said that. 

PS: The Boeing plant is in South Carolina.  Charleston.  I remember reading this on the picket signs when the machinists were picketing at my local Boeing plant.  I remember wondering if the influx from North Carolina represented transfers from Ft. Bragg and other military bases in the state to Ft. Lewis.

D'oh! South Carolina. Of course.

I think you are correct that many factors influence migration. Tax policy may be a proxy for more welcoming economic climate. It may also be a proxy for better growth.

I was merely suggesting that California's exodus belies the weather driven correlation. My guess for one of the best explanatory factors is the failure of the blue-state model built on a static view of the market to pull rents from industries the states are now discovering weren't permanent. Looking at the map, that tends to better correlate.

[roo_ster]

Interesting that the general trend is people moving from cold states to warmer states.

Hmm, more like from NE to SW, with the exception of California.

I suspect the highest correlation of characteristics revolve around the concept of "cost of family formation."  You can think of the factors involved.  Those states with a lower cost get the growth.   

[MillCreek]

And again looking at the Rust Belt states, does this also tie in with industries moving to the South to move away from a union workforce?  In regards to California, I have read in my risk management literature about smaller businesses and manufacturing concerns moving away from California because of the very high workers' compensation costs in that state. You could certainly consider that a tax.

[Tallpine]

California: taxes, smog, traffic, crime ...

Take your pick of reasons to not live there.

A shame because the non-big-city-coastal areas are pretty nice.  There are even remote corners of LA county that could be Nevada or Montana.

[Scout26]

I do know that tax policy in Illinois is driving out jobs.  Caterpillar and State Farm are slowly but surely moving out.  Machines and assemblies that used to be built in Peoria and Aurora are now being built in Georgia, Oregon, Indiana (the that they recently more the doubled in size), Brazil and Sweden.  State Farm is slowly but surely moving it's 15,000 people in Bloomington in groups of 15-30 to Dallas, Phoenix, and Atlanta.   I know of several companies that have "Jumped the Border" into Indiana.  I had one person tell me their operating costs went down 20% after the move (Insurance, especially workers comp, taxes, licenses, fees, regulations, etc.)  They are generating more business because the can offer lower prices then those companies still in Illinois.  He said they should have done this years ago.

And there was a study done earlier this year that showed the 1 taxpayer leaves Illinois every 10 minutes.

Page 8:
http://illinoispolicy.org/uploads/files/CompassQ1.pdf

This state is circling the drain but TPTB in Springfield think they can just keep on doing what they've always been doing.  We'll be Detroit in the next 2-3 years. 

[Monkeyleg]

I wish the states receiving the new residents could use prior voting records to grant or deny permission. If you're a liberal, you can only move to one of the pink or purple states.

[Gowen]

I almost wish there was a like button for so many of these comments.  They are so true.  Being in Nevada, we have had more than our fair share of californians polluting our politics.  Sad to say one of the best things to happen to this state was the housing market crash.  Many californians fled to parts unknown when their home prices fell.