Author Topic: Is our military too woke to recruit?  (Read 1680 times)

dogmush

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Re: Is our military too woke to recruit?
« Reply #25 on: October 19, 2022, 05:39:08 AM »
The military number also includes sex while drunk.  It's one of the big categories the military is working on bringing down.  Lots of barracks parties where people get incapacitated and screw, and regret it later. (I kinda assume like undergrad dorms)

So given if you disagree with that being included as "Sexual Assault " it's an Apples to Apples comparison between military and civilian stats.

cordex

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Re: Is our military too woke to recruit?
« Reply #26 on: October 19, 2022, 08:19:54 AM »
The military number also includes sex while drunk.  It's one of the big categories the military is working on bringing down.  Lots of barracks parties where people get incapacitated and screw, and regret it later. (I kinda assume like undergrad dorms)

So given if you disagree with that being included as "Sexual Assault " it's an Apples to Apples comparison between military and civilian stats.
The "1 in 4" nonsense is based on a very flawed study.  It is typically billed as 1 in 4 women are forcibly raped on campus.  If you were to dig in to the study you'd find that it is a self-selected online study, suffers from serious responder bias, and even the authors don't claim it is a representative sample.  It's clickbait intended to give ammunition to alarmists and ideologues who can use it to push their preconceived narratives, not a serious attempt to study the problem.

The DOJ put together a rape and sexual assault study (1995-2013 - the numbers have been generally falling since a high in 2000) that puts the number of completed rapes, attempted rapes, sexual assaults, and threat of rape or sexual assault at about 6.1 per 1,000 for females attending college or 0.6%.  The rate of non-student females in the same age group is 7.6 per 1,000 or about 0.8%
https://bjs.ojp.gov/content/pub/pdf/rsavcaf9513.pdf

As far as the military goes, assuming for the moment that there is absolutely no perceived or actual downside to reporting sexual assault or rape (which could significantly reduce the reported numbers) and that the report you referenced is about as accurate as the DOJ study above, 8.4% has a very different tone.
« Last Edit: October 19, 2022, 11:16:48 AM by cordex »

RoadKingLarry

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Re: Is our military too woke to recruit?
« Reply #27 on: October 19, 2022, 11:33:07 AM »
Yeah, because stuff like this never happens to people that don't have deep enough pockets to properly defend themselves.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/duke-lacrosse-rape-espn-30-for-30_n_56e07e33e4b065e2e3d486f7

I suspect that a very significant percentage of rape allegations are are a combination of "buyers remorse" due in large part to intoxication and to outright false claims of rape and assault intended to destroy the accused

https://healthresearchfunding.org/8-false-rape-accusation-statistics/ 

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Pb

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Re: Is our military too woke to recruit?
« Reply #28 on: October 19, 2022, 01:04:42 PM »
I thought the "1 in 4" sexual assault claims include more mild types of sexual assault like groping...
« Last Edit: October 19, 2022, 02:46:55 PM by Pb »

dogmush

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Re: Is our military too woke to recruit?
« Reply #29 on: October 19, 2022, 02:07:38 PM »
I thought the "1 in 4" sexual assault claim more mild types of sexual assault like groping...

Unwanted groping is covered in the definition of sexual assault, both on colleges and in the military. 

You can disagree with the numbers I cited, it's not like I did the studies themselves, but the point is they are apples to apples comparisons.  If you believe that sexual assaults are over reported in one due to a wide definition, that definition is consistent across the board so they would similarly be over-reported on the others.

My point was not to paint colleges or American society as overly rapey, but to rebuff Hawkmoon's claim that the current US military has a "Rape Culture".  Given that he's a Vietnam-era vet, he might want to rethink casting those particular stones.

HeroHog

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Re: Is our military too woke to recruit?
« Reply #30 on: October 19, 2022, 02:13:00 PM »
My nephew is a Army recruiter in Texas. Want me to shoot him any questions?

This is his unit in the sandbox. He is the 2nd from the left. We have always called him "Little Rick".
I might not last very long or be very effective but I'll be a real pain in the ass for a minute!
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cordex

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Re: Is our military too woke to recruit?
« Reply #31 on: October 19, 2022, 02:35:37 PM »
You can disagree with the numbers I cited, it's not like I did the studies themselves, but the point is they are apples to apples comparisons.
I sure hope not.  I was operating under the assumption that the DoD survey was done with a little more rigor than some of the other stats you mentioned, but if you insist I guess it's possible they are all poorly done self-selected online surveys.

Look, I'm not even sure you are wrong in your basic contention.  The military could well have a greater capability of monitoring and managing interactions between people than the general public, and it is not unthinkable that they therefore could be better with respect to reducing rape and sexual assault than the general population.  Regardless, you brought in some absolute trash stats to bolster your own presumption and make it seem sciency.

Pb

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Re: Is our military too woke to recruit?
« Reply #32 on: October 19, 2022, 02:47:57 PM »
Unwanted groping is covered in the definition of sexual assault, both on colleges and in the military. 


Yes, I know.  My original post was missing some words.  I have fixed it.

"1 in 4" including groping, etc is not hard to believe.

cordex

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Re: Is our military too woke to recruit?
« Reply #33 on: October 20, 2022, 05:51:34 AM »
Yes, I know.  My original post was missing some words.  I have fixed it.

"1 in 4" including groping, etc is not hard to believe.
For the record, the DOJ report I referenced which showed the rate of victimization of rape and sexual assault for college-attending and non-college-attending women as a full order of magnitude lower than dogmush’s quoted rate for the military also included groping, fondling, and unwanted kissing as well as incidents not reported to authorities.

Apples-to-apples.

HankB

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Re: Is our military too woke to recruit?
« Reply #34 on: October 20, 2022, 07:06:42 AM »
Unwanted groping is covered in the definition of sexual assault, both on colleges and in the military.  . . .
Sometimes it's done by people not in the military.


Men can be victims, too, even out of the military.
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dogmush

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Re: Is our military too woke to recruit?
« Reply #35 on: October 20, 2022, 07:14:42 AM »
For the record, the DOJ report I referenced which showed the rate of victimization of rape and sexual assault for college-attending and non-college-attending women as a full order of magnitude lower than dogmush’s quoted rate for the military also included groping, fondling, and unwanted kissing as well as incidents not reported to authorities.

Apples-to-apples.

No it isn't.

The numbers I posted come from this study: Report on the AAU Campus Climate Survey on Sexual Assault and Misconduct
Which is a 2020 self reported online survey.  As you have pointed out, there may be issues with that way of getting data.  However, the DOD SHARP data comes from our online, anonymous Command Climate Survey's and SHARP surveys, which are the same style of data collection as the study RAINN cited.  So again, the numbers I posted are Apples to Apples numbers.  You are free to dismiss all of them as junk if you like, I'm not going to argue veracity of data I did not collect.

I will insist on pointing out that the DOJ study you posted gets it's numbers (at least in the chart on page 1) from assaults reported to police, and it's widely recognized that many sexual assaults, especially those falling short of rape, go un-reported.  Page 2 of the DOJ study you cited goes into a little detail on why it's not an Apples-to-Apples comparison with other surveys on the subject, and that it has widely varying outcomes from other methods of data collection.

Again, my assertion is that the military doesn't have a significantly higher incidence of sexual assault than America as a whole, and has a lower incidence than some other groups of young people.  I was refuting Hawkmoon's claim that we have a "Rape Culture" that was implied to be worse than civilian America's.  I wasn't trying to make claims on absolute numbers of sexual assault, or say we are perfect and there's no problem.  This whole conversation is in the context of the claim that the military is unsafe for young women in comparison to other places they could be going.

cordex

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Re: Is our military too woke to recruit?
« Reply #36 on: October 20, 2022, 10:17:31 AM »
Which is a 2020 self reported online survey.  As you have pointed out, there may be issues with that way of getting data.  However, the DOD SHARP data comes from our online, anonymous Command Climate Survey's and SHARP surveys, which are the same style of data collection as the study RAINN cited.  So Again, the numbers I posted are Apples to Apples numbers. 
Sorry, but just because two studies have similar structural defects in data collection does not mean they are "apples to apples" comparable.  Two self-selecting studies can both be biased, but they are not necessarily going to result in either the same biases, or the same magnitude of biases which means that comparisons between the two can not be expected to be meaningful.

Put simply, a self-selected survey relating to sexual assault will typically attract a disproportionate amount of responses from people who have suffered from sexual assault, which will significantly increase the apparent incidence of sexual assault in the results.  Thus, any well-constructed survey that intends to determine the actual rate of sexual assault within a given population needs to randomly sample that population.  This way you can be more confident in the relationship between the numerator and denominator when you calculate your percentages.

On the other hand, an official DoD survey - even one that pinky swears that it is anonymous - might well serve to suppress responses (at least compared to a third-party survey over the same subject conducted on a college campus) given the historically high incidence of retribution for officially reporting sexual assaults - see the RAND surveys relating to sexual assault retaliation in the military.

You are free to dismiss all of them as junk if you like, I'm not going to argue veracity of data I did not collect.
Thank you, I will, but you are the one who selected the sources for the percentages you posted and compared.  Personally, I suspect it might have just been the first search results that agreed with your position so you didn't bother to vet them any more than that.

"Look, X proves Y!"
"X doesn't prove Y."
"How can you expect me to defend X?  But Y has been proven."

I will insist on pointing out that the DOJ study you posted gets it's numbers (at least in the chart on page 1) from assaults reported to police, and it's widely recognized that many sexual assaults, especially those falling short of rape, go un-reported. 
Please insist all you like, but that is not correct.  If you read the caption of the chart on page 1, or skim the very first paragraph of the study, you might notice that it was not in fact claiming to get its numbers from assaults reported to police, but was showing the relative percentage of rape or sexual assault victimizations that were reported to police.

If you were to go on to read the highlights (also on page 1) you would see that:
Quote
This report uses the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) to compare the rape and sexual assault victimization of female college students and nonstudents.

The NCVS has its limitations, but compared to your surveys it is unquestionably the better resource for determining rate of victimization within a population.

Page 2 of the DOJ study you cited goes into a little detail on why it's not an Apples-to-Apples comparison with other surveys on the subject, and that it has widely varying outcomes from other methods of data collection.
Come back here with those goalposts, dogmush! 
You kept saying "apples-to-apples" specifically because the definition of included offenses were sufficiently similar between your sources.

That said, you make a valid point.  I should not have compared the DOD and DOJ studies.  My only excuse is that when I looked I could not readily find the methodology of your DOD source and gave it more credence than I should have.  Unlike the DOJ survey, the surveys you cited are inherently (maybe by design?) not capable of determining a realistic rate of incidence of rape and sexual assault within their respective populations, and are thus not suitable for comparison to other studies, including ones that are more likely to provide relatively accurate victimization rates. 

The comparisons on page 2 and 3 of the study do show the relative strength of using the NCVS vs some other surveys out there.  For example, the NVCS is conducted on a nationally representative sample of 240,000 individuals with an overall response rate of 74%.  (Those are some pretty good numbers, FYI.)

Once again, I don't have any data that shows you are wrong in your assertion that the military is relatively safe for women to be in.  Nor do I have evidence showing that there is a "rape culture" either in the military or in the general population.  Hawkmoon and you are the ones who made those assertions, so I'll leave you guys to sort out the validity of your respective claims. 

I mostly took issue with the way you tried to gussy up your biases and prior assumptions in pretentious scientitiousness and invalid, alarmist data.

dogmush

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Re: Is our military too woke to recruit?
« Reply #37 on: October 20, 2022, 10:32:17 AM »
Personally, I suspect it might have just been the first search results that agreed with your position so you didn't bother to vet them any more than that.


Actually I got them from the PowerPoint I got sent out this summer about Sexual Assault in the Military.

As for the rest of your post.  Sure, fine, you win.

cordex

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Re: Is our military too woke to recruit?
« Reply #38 on: October 20, 2022, 10:49:17 AM »
Actually I got them from the PowerPoint I got sent out this summer about Sexual Assault in the Military.
Ouch.  That doesn't help the military's case much.
As for the rest of your post.  Sure, fine, you win.
I know. =D

MillCreek

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Re: Is our military too woke to recruit?
« Reply #39 on: October 20, 2022, 11:47:47 AM »
^^^

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cordex

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Re: Is our military too woke to recruit?
« Reply #40 on: October 20, 2022, 08:45:25 PM »
^^^