Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: Pb on August 31, 2021, 02:02:43 PM
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If Trump was in office, what do you think would have happened in Afghanistan regarding a potential pull out and its aftermath?
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Honestly?
I think he would have pushed hard to keep the original May 1st date. There would have been more emphasis on getting Americans out, and there probably would have been more US equipment destroyed and left than there was. (as distinct from the US furnished ANA equipment) We blew a ton of stuff in place when we unassed Syria. So the months leading up to the end date would have seemed more hectic, with top down orders to "Get out, Now!" and scorched earth equipment. But more people would have left. I think there would have been some American Civilians that refused to leave (NGOs, American University folks, stuff like that) because Orange Man Bad! and he said to.
May 2nd would have been right at the start of fighting season and the Taliban probably would have moved out and progressed at a pretty similar pace, only Kabul would have fell months after we left, instead of days.
The groups of vets and contractors would have had all summer to sneak people across the Turkmenistan or Uzbekistan borders, so more of the Commando's may have survived. By roughly now we'd be in a similar spot with Taliban spinning up their killings and solidifying control.
Trump would have been impeached over it.
I think the only way 2021 ends with the Original Afghan government still in control is if we left ISR and some limited Air Support in country to support the Afghan Commandos, and Trump pretty clearly wasn't going to do that. Trump was too invested in "ending the wars in the mideast" to sell a support force to maintain Afghan stability.
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Judging by how things went in Syria I would expect it to have gone just as poorly or worse.
However, everyone here would be blaming the deep state and they wouldn't be entirely wrong.
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More and more I'm coming to believe civil war has already begun, probably when Trump got elected and some .gov folks started supporting his agenda it became official.
Our Fed Gov, military and various intel agencies all seem to be out of sync with each other, saying contradictory things, possibly struggling for control behind the scenes. Same with the states and court systems.
Trump, like ol Joe, was probably just an avatar for one of the groups struggling for control.
The pull out would have been a mess under Trump because all the players from the USA are on different sides.
Probably not as big a mess but the media leaks and narrative would have been over the top and I suspect false flag attacks to muck things up could have happened also.
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As much as I dislike Trump, I think it would have been better and that is why I voted for him. He was planning to do it while some passes were still snowed in limiting the taliban coming into the country and he planed on keeping the base open until everyone else was out so we could rain hell fire on them if they acted up.
I don't see how he could have done worse.
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It seems to me that at least two things would/could have happened differently:
1. The State Dept would have been on the same evac schedule as the military and not been hanging around until the last minute. Maybe more warnings to civilians to get out would have been done.
2. I think it was suggested Trump would have allowed some support of the ANA to prevent the Taliban from just rolling in. A few long range bomber sorties or drone strikes would have slowed them down. Or the Taliban might have hesitated a bit longer before rolling in for that reason or others.
At some point, the Taliban would have taken control of a bunch of the country and it would catch a number of people by surprise no matter what else happened or how much warning was given. I have been of that opinion for 10 years or more.
I also puzzled as to why all those other NATO countries had to pull people out at the last minute. Was everyone assuming the ANA would last a few months? I don't know enough about the evac plan under Trump to know if this stuff was covered.
One of the articles posted a while back indicated that both the Pentagon and State had good plans in place for evacuation, but no one ever made a decision to execute. Trump doesn't strike me as someone that would have had that problem.
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Forget about Trump ! The problem started 20 years ago under Bush #2 !
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Forget about Trump ! The problem started 20 years ago under Bush #2 !
True. But the question is was there a way to get out of the place better than what we saw happen? I think so, but I doubt it would be easy. And the media would have criticized as if it was just as bad.
I do agree the end result would be similar. Even with a great plan, some civilians would still try to stay for one reason or another and the ANA would not have held for long.
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It might have gone differently under Trump, but likely not smoothly. My armchair thoughts are that a few things might have been beneficially different:
1) We might have held Bagram and might have had a better strategic advantage for the pullout.
2) Without a doubt, Trump would have ordered some response to the Taliban overrunning Kabul and the airport corridor.
3) If the reporting is accurate that the Taliban told us either we could secure Kabul or they would, I'm positive that Trump would have insisted that Americans do so.
4) Just the fact that Trump was in office, and could be unpredictable, the Taliban might have held back longer, for fear of violent retaliation.
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I think if Trump were still in office, the State Department and the Pentagon would be working overtime to sabotage anything he wanted to do.
If a Republican ever gets to be C.I.C. again, the first thing he (or she) should do is fire all the generals and promote a few company and field grade officers to flag rank.
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I think if Trump were still in office, the State Department and the Pentagon would be working overtime to sabotage anything he wanted to do.
If a Republican ever gets to be C.I.C. again, the first thing he (or she) should do is fire all the generals and promote a few company and field grade officers to flag rank.
One comment I heard recently was someone saying people thought Trump would drain the swamp and do scorched earth in D.C. He did some good things, but never that. The next R in the White House better be prepared to do just that. All agencies, not just the Pentagon.
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One comment I heard recently was someone saying people thought Trump would drain the swamp and do scorched earth in D.C. He did some good things, but never that. The next R in the White House better be prepared to do just that. All agencies, not just the Pentagon.
Yeah, I'm unsure what his reasons were for not cleaning house. I mean, there were people bragging that they were sabotaging his policies. The left hated everything he did regardless, so there was certainly no benefit to him to not do so merely for good PR.
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I suspect that when an actual draining was mentioned, folks started bringing up their own scorched earth/poison pill stuff... Remember the kefuffle over telling Dept Ag that they had to relocate to the midwest?
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... Remember the kefuffle over telling Dept Ag that they had to relocate to the midwest?
Actually, no. Got a link?
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I don't have a link but a bunch quit and many others yelled. They didn't want to live in flyover country.
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I also don't have a link, but it should be easy to google. Trump wanted the DC contingent of USDA researchers to move their HQ to a geographic location more centralized to their customers and areas of study. Apparently researchers quit in droves when they found out there are no Ethiopian restaurants or oxygen bars in flyover country.
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They might have been surprised by what Kansas City has to offer.
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I think if Trump were still in office, the State Department and the Pentagon would be working overtime to sabotage anything he wanted to do.
If a Republican ever gets to be C.I.C. again, the first thing he (or she) should do is fire all the generals and promote a few company and field grade officers to flag rank.
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
It is my opinion that Trump's biggest mistake was not shitcanning every Obama hold over (including military top brass) that he was constitutionally allowed to fire.
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I don't have a link but a bunch quit and many others yelled. They didn't want to live in flyover country.
Out where the, you know, farms are. Yes, I remember that.
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I wonder if Biden & Co. left any nukes.
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:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
It is my opinion that Trump's biggest mistake was not shitcanning every Obama hold over (including military top brass) that he was constitutionally allowed to fire.
His mistake is thinking there were any good people left on the inside who could be worked with. There aren't.
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I also don't have a link, but it should be easy to google. Trump wanted the DC contingent of USDA researchers to move their HQ to a geographic location more centralized to their customers and areas of study. Apparently researchers quit in droves when they found out there are no Ethiopian restaurants or oxygen bars in flyover country.
If laws prevent one from firing federal employees, I always figured that would be one way to get rid of a bunch of them. Most of the federal departments have little reason to be in D.C.