Nork nano-nuke

[RoadKingLarry]

You have a lot more confidence in Obama than I do. I think there's at least a 50/50 chance he would have done nothing.

My money would have been on him apologizing for what ever evilamericancapitalist act we had done to justify getting us nuked.

[Hawkmoon]

My money would have been on him apologizing for what ever evilamericancapitalist act we had done to justify getting us nuked.

Mine, too. And bowing to the fat midget while apologizing.

[Hutch]

It seems as if the PRC has vowed to intervene on behalf of the DPRK if we should throw the first punch, but will remain neutral if Li'l Kim takes a poke at us first.  Geopolitics just baffles, and in this case, terrifies me.

I hope no future Barbara Tuchman writes another The Guns of August about 2017.

As fate would have it, one of the groomsmen in my daughter's wedding arrived in Seoul for a 2.5 week bidness trip just a coupla days ago.  Seems to make it more personal to me, for some reason.

[AJ Dual]

How much nukes could Nork nuke if Nork could nuke New York?

[230RN]

How much nukes could Nork nuke if Nork could nuke New York?

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I promise not to duck.

You'd better.

[AJ Dual]

The answer is obvious.

A Nork would nuke as much nuke as a Nork would nuke if a Nork could nuke New York.

[Scout26]

I am so hoping that the PRC decides to put down the rabid pitbull in their backyard and get a new puppy that they can train better and get housebroken.


I'd much rather see the PRC do the Disarm and Decapitate strike.  I think we'd be best if we signaled that to the PRC.   No US Troops north of the current DMZ (ever), but get rid of the Kim's and put in someone you can control better.


I also think, that the next missile the Nork's launch will be taken out by one the ABMDS ships (I think we have a few in Pacific).

[AJ Dual]

I'm sure it's been a standing request/offer from the U.S. and ROK to China for probably more than a decade now that if China were to take them over we'd be cool with it.

We've probably also been floating overtures that if we preemptively took out the DPRK's nuclear capability, and Kim, that we'd let China have a new puppet state in exchange for not interfering, because they want the buffer so badly.

Meanwhile Kim and the DPRK are probably desperately threatening the PRC with whatever he can, refugee flood, flood of illegal narcotics, counterfeit Yuan bills, all of the above... whatever, if they don't keep backing him. And a chunk of China has been in range of even their earlier nuclear capabilities as much as the ROK is.

China has certainly been willing to mix it up with other Communist countries if they thought it was in their interests. They had that nasty little skirmish/border war/invasion of Vietnam in '79, in retaliation for them invading Cambodia and overturning the Khmer Rouge. Although times are a bit different, that was when China still had had some semblance of a Maoist ideological orientation, and they saw Vietnam's involvement in Cambodia as an attempt at Soviet meddling/hegemony in SE Asia.

Didn't work, seeing as Vietnam occupied Cambodia up until '89. Total non sequitur, but crap has to be pretty bad for a Communist Vietnamese occupation to be a significant improvement in your political situation.  

[Scout26]

I wonder if the fat kid got the message...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-warns-north-korea-youre-on-your-own-if-you-go-after-the-us/2017/08/11/a01a4396-7e68-11e7-9026-4a0a64977c92_story.html?utm_term=.453fe697334e

[Hawkmoon]

I was at the VA hospital this morning for a session of physical therapy. I skipped breakfast to make it to my appointment so, after the session, I headed to the cafeteria for breakfast. The veteran in the line behind me looked at me and volunteered, "Well, we're going to war next week."

I guess I looked puzzled, because then he followed up with, "North Korea. I figure it'll start next week -- if not sooner."

I dunno. I hope he's wrong. In all honesty, though, I do think we're going to be at war with North Korea before it's all settled. I don't think it will happen by next week, but it could happen by the end of this year. And I'm certainly glad I don't live on Guam.

[AJ Dual]

Meh. Slow boil.

Figure 40% of it is MSM fearmongering/FUD/and issue inflation. And it's an anti-Trump angle, much like how the bleating was nearly constant for eight years that Reagan was going to get us into WWIII with the USSR etc.

20% of it is the Nork's don't have a re-entry heatshield/guidance package to put the bomb in yet.

20% of it is the Nork's don't actually have their new rockets to the point they can reach CONUS, Hawaii and AK is still a stretch for them.

10% of it is we recently found out that the Nork's were getting their rocket engines from Ukraine. We have a bit of leverage with Ukraine in terms of if they want help economically, politically, or militarily to keep Russia from taking more of their territory etc. Maybe they got enough ahead of time from Ukraine, maybe they didn't. Either way, it's unlikely they'll be getting more from there.

And after all that, I figure 10% of the threat is "real" and flipping a coin as to whether Kim wants nukes for regional MAD and to ensure his reign, or if he's a non-rational player and wants to actually use it.

A 50/50 chance on a 10% chance where nukes are involved is not something anybody wants, but then I don't think it's "hot" enough we're going to preemptively strike them either. At least not yet.

I think the most likely escalation that will come next is a test on their part, and in response we try to shoot it down. Lesser possibility something overflies or comes too close to Japan, and their own systems take a shot at it.

[Scout26]

The Fat Kid did get the message...


https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/14/in-north-korea-crisis-china-hands-trump-a-win-commentary.html

[Hawkmoon]

The Fat Kid did get the message...

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/14/in-north-korea-crisis-china-hands-trump-a-win-commentary.html

China hands Trump a win on North Korea crisis

The media must be engaging in wholesale weeping and gnashing of teeth.

[Scout26]

The media must be engaging in wholesale weeping and gnashing of teeth.

One word, Charlottesville...

[Hawkmoon]

Maybe the fat midget didn't get the message after all:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/20/asia/north-korea-south-korea-us-military-drills/index.html

I'm glad I don't live in Guam or Hawaii.

[zahc]

Is it bad that I sort of agree with China that conducting the drills seems a bit provacative?

[Hawkmoon]

Is it bad that I sort of agree with China that conducting the drills seems a bit provacative?

Well, they are -- and they aren't. It's an annual exercise, that has been conducted every year for many years. The south hasn't attacked the north yet as a result of the exercises, which I believe are defensive in nature. And this year the U.S. will have 30 percent fewer troops involved than last year.

Beyond that, with all the saber-rattling NK has been engaging in recently, how can they legitimately call a defensive exercise "provocative"? And as for Russia and China making that claim? That's the pot calling the kettle black -- China is building those artificial islands in disputed territory and militarizing them, Russia has invaded both Ukraine and Georgia in recent years -- they have no moral high ground to be accusing anyone of being "provocative."

The only thing any of those clowns understand is strength. If the U.S. and South Korea were to cancel a planned, annual exercise now because the midget uttered harsh words, I'm sure it would be interpreted by North Korea, China, and Russia as a sign of weakness. And that would only lead to further provocations by all three of the above-named suspects.

[French G.]

China ought to pull a twofer. Invade NK and ROC simultaneously. Dare anyone to say anything.