Author Topic: Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy  (Read 1587 times)

RadioFreeSeaLab

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Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy
« on: February 20, 2007, 09:10:28 AM »

http://www.lewrockwell.com/paul/paul370.html

Statement at Hearing of the House Financial Services Committee, February 15, 2007


Transparency in monetary policy is a goal we should all support.  I've often wondered why Congress so willingly has given up its prerogative over monetary policy.  Astonishingly, Congress in essence has ceded total control over the value of our money to a secretive central bank.

Congress created the Federal Reserve, yet it had no constitutional authority to do so.  We forget that those powers not explicitly granted to Congress by the Constitution are inherently denied to Congress  and thus the authority to establish a central bank never was given.  Of course Jefferson and Hamilton had that debate early on, a debate seemingly settled in 1913.

But transparency and oversight are something else, and they're worth considering.  Congress, although not by law, essentially has given up all its oversight responsibility over the Federal Reserve.  There are no true audits, and Congress knows nothing of the conversations, plans, and actions taken in concert with other central banks.  We get less and less information regarding the money supply each year, especially now that M3 is no longer reported.

The role the Fed plays in the President's secretive Working Group on Financial Markets goes unnoticed by members of Congress.  The Federal Reserve shows no willingness to inform Congress voluntarily about how often the Working Group meets, what actions it takes that affect the financial markets, or why it takes those actions.

But these actions, directed by the Federal Reserve, alter the purchasing power of our money.  And that purchasing power is always reduced.  The dollar today is worth only four cents compared to the dollar in 1913, when the Federal Reserve started.  This has profound consequences for our economy and our political stability.  All paper currencies are vulnerable to collapse, and history is replete with examples of great suffering caused by such collapses, especially to a nation's poor and middle class.  This leads to political turmoil.

Even before a currency collapse occurs, the damage done by a fiat system is significant.  Our monetary system insidiously transfers wealth from the poor and middle class to the privileged rich.  Wages never keep up with the profits of Wall Street and the banks, thus sowing the seeds of class discontent.  When economic trouble hits, free markets and free trade often are blamed, while the harmful effects of a fiat monetary system are ignored. We deceive ourselves that all is well with the economy, and ignore the fundamental flaws that are a source of growing discontent among those who have not shared in the abundance of recent years.

Few understand that our consumption and apparent wealth is dependent on a current account deficit of $800 billion per year.  This deficit shows that much of our prosperity is based on borrowing rather than a true increase in production.  Statistics show year after year that our productive manufacturing jobs continue to go overseas.  This phenomenon is not seen as a consequence of the international fiat monetary system, where the United States government benefits as the issuer of the world's reserve currency.

Government officials consistently claim that inflation is in check at barely 2%, but middle class Americans know that their purchasing power  especially when it comes to housing, energy, medical care, and school tuition  is shrinking much faster than 2% each year.

Even if prices were held in check, in spite of our monetary inflation, concentrating on CPI distracts from the real issue.  We must address the important consequences of Fed manipulation of interest rates. When interest rates are artificially low, below market rates, insidious mal-investment and excessive indebtedness inevitably bring about the economic downturn that everyone dreads.

We look at GDP numbers to reassure ourselves that all is well, yet a growing number of Americans still do not enjoy the higher standard of living that monetary inflation brings to the privileged few.  Those few have access to the newly created money first, before its value is diluted.

For example:  Before the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, CEO income was about 30 times the average worker's pay.  Today, it's closer to 500 times.  It's hard to explain this simply by market forces and increases in productivity.  One Wall Street firm last year gave out bonuses totaling $16.5 billion.  There's little evidence that this represents free market capitalism.

In 2006 dollars, the minimum wage was $9.50 before the 1971 breakdown of Bretton Woods.  Today that dollar is worth $5.15.  Congress congratulates itself for raising the minimum wage by mandate, but in reality it has lowered the minimum wage by allowing the Fed to devalue the dollar.  We must consider how the growing inequalities created by our monetary system will lead to social discord.

GDP purportedly is now growing at 3.5%, and everyone seems pleased.  What we fail to understand is how much government entitlement spending contributes to the increase in the GDP.  Rebuilding infrastructure destroyed by hurricanes, which simply gets us back to even, is considered part of GDP growth.  Wall Street profits and salaries, pumped up by the Fed's increase in money, also contribute to GDP statistical growth.  Just buying military weapons that contribute nothing to the well being of our citizens, sending money down a rat hole, contributes to GDP growth!  Simple price increases caused by Fed monetary inflation contribute to nominal GDP growth.  None of these factors represent any kind of real increases in economic output.  So we should not carelessly cite misleading GDP figures which don't truly reflect what is happening in the economy.  Bogus GDP figures explain in part why so many people are feeling squeezed despite our supposedly booming economy.

But since our fiat dollar system is not going away anytime soon, it would benefit Congress and the American people to bring more transparency to how and why Fed monetary policy functions.

For starters, the Federal Reserve should:

Begin publishing the M3 statistics again.  Let us see the numbers that most accurately reveal how much new money the Fed is pumping into the world economy.
Tell us exactly what the President's Working Group on Financial Markets does and why.
Explain how interest rates are set.  Conservatives profess to support free markets, without wage and price controls.  Yet the most important price of all, the price of money as determined by interest rates, is set arbitrarily in secret by the Fed rather than by markets!  Why is this policy written in stone? Why is there no congressional input at least?
Change legal tender laws to allow constitutional legal tender (commodity money) to compete domestically with the dollar.
How can a policy of steadily debasing our currency be defended morally, knowing what harm it causes to those who still believe in saving money and assuming responsibility for themselves in their retirement years?  Is it any wonder we are a nation of debtors rather than savers?

We need more transparency in how the Federal Reserve carries out monetary policy, and we need it soon.

February 17, 2007

Dr. Ron Paul is a Republican member of Congress from Texas.

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richyoung

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Re: Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy
« Reply #1 on: February 20, 2007, 10:53:09 AM »
+1
Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't...

Eleven Mike

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Re: Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy
« Reply #2 on: February 20, 2007, 10:54:52 AM »
Yeah, because that horse hasn't been beaten to a fine pulp recently.   rolleyes

cosine

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Re: Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy
« Reply #3 on: February 20, 2007, 11:12:54 AM »
Yeah, because that horse hasn't been beaten to a fine pulp recently.   rolleyes

Eh, we're about due for our monthly money thread... Wink grin
Andy

Matthew Carberry

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Re: Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy
« Reply #4 on: February 20, 2007, 11:16:16 AM »
Quote
Just buying military weapons that contribute nothing to the well being of our citizens, sending money down a rat hole, contributes to GDP growth!  


This is not a true statement, it is too broad.  The indirect benefits of security are very real contributions to citizen personal and economic well-being.

These kind of overly broad strokes, while they play well rhetorically, in the end diminish the credibility of the speaker as they are pointed out and dissected.  While there often isn't time for explicit detail on every point, a more nuanced statement is usually preferable and denies an opponant an easy contradiction to bring up and confuse the larger issue.

For example: "Buying military weapons, which may or may not directly contribute to the well-being of our citizens, always contributes to GDP growth."

Now if some obstructionist wants to try and attack Doc Paul on this point he can simply say, "The details of what constitute appropriate military expenditures belong to another discussion, what is important here is the role of fiat money in general...  etc."
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jnojr

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Re: Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy
« Reply #5 on: February 20, 2007, 03:12:09 PM »
Read "The Creature from Jekyll Island".  It's very interesting and engrossing.  It's a little whacky... the basic premise is the rich New York bankers are part of a worldwide conspiracy to wreck the US and create a Socialist one-world government, there are secret cabals that run everything, etc.  I think the author found grains of truth and then blew them out of proportion.  But there are a lot of facts, too.  Read past the conspiracy shadings, and you find out a lot about the path that led us to where we are today.

Unfortunately, we're extremely unlikely to get rid of the Fed.  And we're far less likely to return to a true, free, open market.  Not because The Illuminati run everything, but because a market correction causes real problems for real people, and (supposedly) democratically-elected politicians can win more years at the trough for "doing something".  We love it when the market goes up, but when it starts to correct downwards, we must stop that at all costs.

I do believe that economic instability will, at some point, overtake the Fed, just as it has every central bank, at some point.  I also believe that we will recover, just as markets have always recovered from even the worst crashes.

Waitone

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Re: Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy
« Reply #6 on: February 20, 2007, 03:18:19 PM »
HR 2778 was dropped into the hopper.  It is a bill to abolish the FED and return banking to the control of the US government and not a private international consortium. 

http://thomas.loc.gov/ search for HR2778 renders "The text of HR2778 has not yet been received from GPO"  3 weeks the GPO has failed to provide the text.  Interesting comment since GPO gets the text electronically.

All central banks will at some point fail and take their host country with them.  The other wing of the plane is the income tax.  Getting rid of the fed will accomplish nothing if the income tax remains.  Both have to be pulled out by the roots for freedom to surface.
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jnojr

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Re: Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy
« Reply #7 on: February 20, 2007, 03:24:32 PM »
HR 2778 was dropped into the hopper.  It is a bill to abolish the FED and return banking to the control of the US government and not a private international consortium.

That just isn't going to happen.  For one thing, inflation is a great way to pay for future debt without actually raising taxes.  And being able to whip up a bunch of cash at a moment's notice isn't an ability any politician is going to willingly give up.

Quote
All central banks will at some point fail and take their host country with them.  The other wing of the plane is the income tax.  Getting rid of the fed will accomplish nothing if the income tax remains.  Both have to be pulled out by the roots for freedom to surface.

Agreed, but again...

I'm afraid the only way we're going to get rid of the crap is via a monumental collapse.  Anything short of a TEOTWAWKI event will have the powers that be doing as they've always done... trying to "manage" the economy into recovery.

HankB

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Re: Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy
« Reply #8 on: February 21, 2007, 03:40:36 AM »
Quote
Few understand that our consumption and apparent wealth is dependent on a current account deficit of $800 billion per year.
Wrong. An awful lot of government spending does NOTHING to enhance the wealth of the nation - it's simply a matter of transfer payments whereby the government robs Peter to pay Paul in order to get Paul's votes.
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Perd Hapley

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Re: Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy
« Reply #9 on: February 21, 2007, 03:44:46 AM »
the government robs Peter to pay Paul in order to get Paul's votes.

Ron Paul is taking stolen money in return for his vote?  I knew that guy was dirty!
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Matthew Carberry

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Re: Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy
« Reply #10 on: February 21, 2007, 08:07:08 AM »
What about the Peters fistful?  Why don't you care about the Peters?
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Perd Hapley

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Re: Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy
« Reply #11 on: February 21, 2007, 10:05:41 AM »
Carebear, I'm not going there.   cheesy
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jnojr

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Re: Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy
« Reply #12 on: February 21, 2007, 10:24:53 AM »
Quote
Few understand that our consumption and apparent wealth is dependent on a current account deficit of $800 billion per year.
Wrong. An awful lot of government spending does NOTHING to enhance the wealth of the nation - it's simply a matter of transfer payments whereby the government robs Peter to pay Paul in order to get Paul's votes.

What you say is true.  Our goverment debt is certainly not a source of "wealth", but it is the basis for our money supply.  The Federal government "sells" debt to the Fed, which creates money to "pay for" that debt.  That money then enters circulation (sometimes as printed currency, more often as bank loans), and then we get to pay the actual bill via inflation.

If we were to pay off all government debt, our money supply would pretty much disappear.  In The Creature From Jekyll Island, the author claims that all of it would disappear.  That's an interesting and really weird idea  smiley

Matthew Carberry

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Re: Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy
« Reply #13 on: February 21, 2007, 04:32:07 PM »
I'll have to read that.

In the end a treasury note is only redeemable to the Fed.  If they aren't buying stuff from others (creating debt) and all outstanding notes are redeemed for other things of value, there wouldn't be any greenbacks around.

Back to barter or private currencies.
"Not all unwise laws are unconstitutional laws, even where constitutional rights are potentially involved." - Eugene Volokh

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Art Eatman

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Re: Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy
« Reply #14 on: February 21, 2007, 08:00:46 PM »
Secretive?  Bernanke testifies almost weekly, as did Greenspan.  Of course, nobody ever could understand what Greenspan was saying.  Bernanke mostly tells Congress that we live in the Best Of All Possible Worlds, except that he's worried about inflation--when he's not worried about deflation.   He reports, you decide.

The drawback to the FRB system is that like all fiat-currency systems, the value of the currency declines over time.  Too much money is printed.  Right now, I hear they're hiring Lube Boys to keep the presses from burning up.

But, same is true world-wide.

Keep "Current Account Deficit" separate from federal budget deficit.  The former is the difference between what your daddy makes and exports, and what your momma buys as imports.  We buy from overseas more than we sell to overseas, by, yeah, just under $800 billion a year.  Yet, the US is the world's biggest exporter. :-)  Just less than in the past.

The biggest money problem is the unfunded liabilities deal for Social Insecurity, Medicare and Medicaid.  Forty trillion?  Something like that.

The big question is a What If:  What if those folks who've been accumulating the dollars decide they'd rather have a different currency, or gold, or US properties?  They go to spending and selling dollars and the dollar fairly suddenly becomes worth a good bit less.  Foreign goods cost more, but we don't have domestic-production capability any longer.

Interesting times.

Art
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jnojr

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Re: Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy
« Reply #15 on: February 22, 2007, 10:13:56 AM »
Secretive?  Bernanke testifies almost weekly, as did Greenspan.  Of course, nobody ever could understand what Greenspan was saying.  Bernanke mostly tells Congress that we live in the Best Of All Possible Worlds, except that he's worried about inflation--when he's not worried about deflation.

He's made it clear that deflation is the dragon that must be slain.  The Fed simply will not allow any deflation... they've stated very clearly that they will create money until the deflation turns back into inflation.  Oh, and they also believe that "some" inflation is "good for the economy".

Quote
The drawback to the FRB system is that like all fiat-currency systems, the value of the currency declines over time.  Too much money is printed.  Right now, I hear they're hiring Lube Boys to keep the presses from burning up.

Yup.  I love how they stopped reporting M3 figures.  The guesstimates about what it probably is that I saw a while back were pretty scary.  But, it's easy for them to poo-poo those figures and say, "Oh, those guys don't know what they're talking about, they don't have the facts".  Uh, yeah... because you're withholding the facts!!!

Quote
Keep "Current Account Deficit" separate from federal budget deficit.  The former is the difference between what your daddy makes and exports, and what your momma buys as imports.  We buy from overseas more than we sell to overseas, by, yeah, just under $800 billion a year.  Yet, the US is the world's biggest exporter. :-)  Just less than in the past.

I just went through a gamut of books looking at current and future economic and financial issues for us.  One addressed the trade deficit.  It was a good read until I got to the last chapter about "what we should do".  The author's suggestion was a global minimum wage and other pie-in-the-sky Socialist ideas about levelling the standard of living around the world.

Quote
The biggest money problem is the unfunded liabilities deal for Social Insecurity, Medicare and Medicaid.  Forty trillion?  Something like that.

The Coming Generational Storm addresses this.  Very scary read.

Quote
The big question is a What If:  What if those folks who've been accumulating the dollars decide they'd rather have a different currency, or gold, or US properties?  They go to spending and selling dollars and the dollar fairly suddenly becomes worth a good bit less.  Foreign goods cost more, but we don't have domestic-production capability any longer.

One of the points made in at least one of my recent selections was how all of the dollars that have gone overseas are a temporary economic benefit to us... we bought real goods, and paid with fiat dollars.  But the people who accepted those dollars use them to buy up property, stocks, businesses, etc.  And then there's the problem where, if a bunch of foreign dollar holders decide that the dollar is weakening, or is likely to lose its' status as the predominant world trade currency, they will start dumping their huge holdings, which will exacerbate our problems even more.

I have to admit to being completely entranced with macroeconomics right now.  I'm reading everything I can get my hands on Smiley

RadioFreeSeaLab

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Re: Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy
« Reply #16 on: February 23, 2007, 07:37:54 AM »
Here's a video of this speech, or one almost exactly like it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A4kxTkhwR_Q

RJMcElwain

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Re: Monetary Policy and the State of the Economy
« Reply #17 on: February 25, 2007, 05:21:51 PM »
A very brief comment on the original premise, that Congress should banish the Fed and take over the Central Banking duties. Periodically, the Fed reports to Congress and, each time, Congress proves, especially through the words of Barney Frank, why they are totally incapable of managing the money system.

Until Congress can be more transparent in the budgeting process and show both the entire budget in detail plus all that is spent "off-budget", I don't want them touching the money system or any other part of banking.

And since we've never had any long term experience with deflation, all we have are theories as to how bad it would be. Exactly what would happen if we had a couple of decades of very mild deflation? I've yet to hear any reasonable prophecy.

Bob
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