I like the idea of a peacefull secession, and the original topic of the snowball effect that would be sure to follow is even more interesting, since it would seem like states most likely to join would split the country in half from TX to MT. TX really is the key, since the interior States would be landlocked if they attempted it alone.
And that the United States government would be capable of carrying out what is essentially a conspiracy worthy of Alex Jones, and nobody would find out?
It's not that nobody would find out, it's that nobody would do anything if they did. See previous arguments about branch davidians etc.
But they'd have to do it outside the law and when the populace inevitably discovered what they were doing I don't imagine that being a fed anywhere anytime would be a particularly safe thing to be.
Texans are great and tewibble, sure. But most Americans are not Texans. There seems to be sentiment that if the American People found out that Texan secessionists were being retaliated against, they would be outraged at the feds and support Texas. The people expressing these sentiments may not spend as much time on college campuses as I do, but my perception is that America(TM) looks to mommy Federal Government to see what is legal/ok/allowed/right, and thus the rebels would be Bad People(TM) to those outside of Texas, or aloyal to Texas. I'd wager that most Americans consider secession to be a criminal or at least an anti-social thing to do, and immediately feel that it is legally appropriate for the Federales to take significant millitary action to prevent it. If this escalated to the point of serious conflict with civilians in the crossfire, then people might start to lose their stomach for it. But the smart bet is on it NOT escalating that far because as soon as a the few most brazen rebels/dissenters/insurgents/terrorists are killed, the Texas population will back down in the face of the black helicopters and other military hardware in their backyards. I would expect the Feds to bet on this outcome as well, and thus go forth with the whole thing. So in this completely hypothetical scenario that I envision as most likely, a peaceful secession is not likely.
This reminds me of the scene in Gone with the Wind when Rhett Butler gives his unpopular advice at the meeting of plantation owners at the outbreak of the War Between the States (v.1)
RHETT BUTLER
I think it's hard winning a war with words,
gentlemen.
CHARLES
What do you mean, sir?
RHETT
I mean, Mr. Hamilton, there's not a cannon factory in
the whole South.
MAN
What difference does that make, sir, to a gentleman?
RHETT
I'm afraid it's going to make a great deal of
difference to a great many gentlemen, sir.
CHARLES
Are you hinting, Mr. Butler, that the Yankees can
lick us?
RHETT
No, I'm not hinting. I'm saying very plainly that the
Yankees are better equipped than we. They've got
factories, shipyards, coal-mines... and a fleet to
bottle up our harbors and starve us to death. All
we've got is cotton, and slaves and ...arrogance.
MAN
That's treacherous!
CHARLES
I refuse to listen to any renegade talk!
RHETT
Well, I'm sorry if the truth offends you.
CHARLES
Apologies aren't enough sir. I hear you were turned
out of West Point Mr. Rhett Butler. And that you
aren't received in an decent family in Charleston.
Not even
your own.
RHETT
I apologize again for all my shortcomings. Mr.
Wilkes, Perhaps you won't mind if I walk about and
look ver your place. I seem to be spoiling
everybody's brandy and cigars and...dreams of
victory.
So while we are talking about all this in completely hypothetical terms, for the speculative fiction that we are all interested in as fans of speculative fiction, and nothing more, just what kind of military hardware does TX have? Does it have a fleet? Air power? Ground power for that matter?
