Some thoughts about Obama

[Monkeyleg]

It seems like every poll that's been released in the last few months shows the public upset about everything: gas prices, the overall economy, unemployment, foreign policy, progress in Afghanistan, the Middle East in general, unemployment, energy, the debt, deficit spending, unemployment, race (or the use of race as a bludgeon), and more.

If this were any president other than Obama, his poll numbers would be in the 30's, or maybe even lower. But, according to the polls, Obama's personal numbers are still high, even as people express disappointment with aspects of his job performance.

I really think that his numbers are far lower, and that people are afraid to say they disapprove of Obama out of fear of being perceived as racist.

If I'm right, the pundits, the Republicans, and the Obama campaign may be seeing numbers that are out of whack, and Obama is very vulnerable next year, provided the Republicans run a good candidate who does a good job campaigning.

One can only hope.

[RevDisk]

Some of us don't blame the President for everything that sucks.


Plenty of things to dislike the man over.  But I only do so for the things he either directly does or should do according to the Constitution.  Everything else, not his problem in my mind.  

[Perd Hapley]

If I'm right, the pundits, the Republicans, and the Obama campaign may be seeing numbers that are out of whack, and Obama is very vulnerable next year, provided the Republicans run a good candidate who does a good job campaigning.

Such a candidate could beat Obama, even if you are wrong about the numbers. But will we find such a candidate?

[SteveT]

Obama won the election 53-47% so it wasn't just what people were afraid of being perceived as.   At that time, of course.

Unemployment is 9% plus all those other things ML mentioned.   He should be wildly unpopular.

People don't like two things:   The Republican candidates, the Republican message (i.e. The Ryan Plan or Budget)

[longeyes]

You need to factor in the percentage of the population that remains unaffected by Obama's policies or actually benefits from them.  It's large enough to turn all economic long-term logic on its head.

[bedlamite]

provided the Republicans run a good candidate who does a good job campaigning.

 

[Blakenzy]

Obama at AIPAC: "Despite tough fiscal times, we've increased foreign military financing to record levels!!!"

  m'kay...

Maybe he should get re-elected, that way he gets to go down in history as the Administration that took the Republic over the brink.

[Monkeyleg]

Some of us don't blame the President for everything that sucks.

Quite right, but that didn't stop half the country from blaming Bush for Hurricane Katrina (and a zillion other things).

Unemployment is 9% plus all those other things ML mentioned.   He should be wildly unpopular.

You need to factor in the percentage of the population that remains unaffected by Obama's policies or actually benefits from them.

I believe he is unpopular, or at least much more so than the polls show. Also, there's a lot more people hurting from Obama's policies than benefitting.

We'll see in a year and a half if my hunch is right.

[birdman]

Obama at AIPAC: "Despite tough fiscal times, we've increased foreign military financing to record levels!!!"

  m'kay...

Maybe he should get re-elected, that way he gets to go down in history as the Administration that took the Republic over the brink.

Or he's following his role model Saul: first make things worse...

[MillCreek]

Some of us don't blame the President for everything that sucks.


Plenty of things to dislike the man over.  But I only do so for the things he either directly does or should do according to the Constitution.  Everything else, not his problem in my mind.  

Ditto. And regardless of whom is filling the position at the time, I always respect the Office of the President.

[longeyes]

Too bad "The Office" doesn't make decisions that can make or break The Republic.

He's the head of the Executive Branch, no more, no less.  In the days before the American Empire not that big a deal, you know.

[Boomhauer]

Maybe he should get re-elected, that way he gets to go down in history as the Administration that took the Republic over the brink.

Unless there is very radical change in the political scene, and by that I mean a strongly conservative president is elected along with both the House and Senate controlled by actual, real conservatives, and those people all push for drastic changes to curb the federal government, loosen the chokehold on the economy, and so forth, the Republic will fail. It's only a matter of time, and I fear that choice is "soon or sooner".

The election of truly conservative politicians who actually care about the fate of the nation, however, is in my book VERY UNLIKELY. The Dems will be gunning for them from the outset and the RINOs will be trying to suppress them so they can stay in their coveted positions of power.

[RevDisk]

provided the Republicans run a good candidate who does a good job campaigning.

Erm.  Isn't one of the leading Republicans running the guy that got his wife to sign divorce papers while in the hospital to marry the woman with whom he was having an affair?  And then cheated on that wife with another lady, while roasting Clinton for having an affair and playing the Family/Christian Values card? 

Seriously.  Not a good sign. 

Ideal situation is that the current Republican candidates wipe themselves out early on.  Then someone sane and/or a relatively decent human steps in.  Christie would be nice. 

[Perd Hapley]

Erm.  Isn't one of the leading Republicans running the guy that...

Not anymore.

[birdman]

You need to factor in the percentage of the population that remains unaffected by Obama's policies or actually benefits from them.  It's large enough to turn all economic long-term logic on its head.

I think the dominant reason why Obama (and most status quo pols) remain popular is people don't like confronting reality... They would rather assume it's being taken care of, or "things aren't that bad", than realize and make changes.  Well, and people are bad at math, have little understanding of how government, the economy, and most things work.  You see it in people's personal finances, and it easily extends to politics.  My fear is we have become a dependent, bread and circus nation, and those who get elected do so on the platform of keeping things the way they are (or better), rather than thinking long term.  American businesses turned around in the 80's and 90's by adopting more long term views, and planning accordingly, but that thought process has not trickled down into the population, or, because the population is who votes, up into the government.

[makattak]

Also, there's a lot more people hurting from Obama's policies than benefitting.

Those who are hurting the worst from his policies will vote for him at a 90+% rate.

Black men are suffering the worst in this recession.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=129106616

http://westorlandonews.com/2009/08/24/inner-city-black-male-unemployment-at-50-percent/

They can't, or won't, see the connection between his policies and their suffering, though.

[KD5NRH]

Ditto. And regardless of whom is filling the position at the time, I always respect the Office of the President.

If only the current occupant felt the same way...

[HankB]

The election of truly conservative politicians who actually care about the fate of the nation, however, is in my book VERY UNLIKELY. The Dems will be gunning for them from the outset and the RINOs will be trying to suppress them so they can stay in their coveted positions of power.

Not to mention major media doing their best to pillory them (remember the CBS anchor's use of forged documents from a dead man) and a substantial portion of the population - the parasitic eaters - who contribute nothing but can still vote, and WANT a leftist in power so they can stay on the dole. 

[Boomhauer]

Not to mention major media doing their best to pillory them

I would have mentioned the MSM but I already mentioned the Democrats and I thought it would be redundant.

Those who are hurting the worst from his policies will vote for him at a 90+% rate.

Black men are suffering the worst in this recession.

It is the damndest thing I have ever seen in my life. Blacks, if they vote, they vote consistently for the Democrats. Yet, what's the party that keeps them on welfare? What's the party that plays them like a piano? What's the really racist party? What's the party that used to keep them from participating in politics and kept them second class citizens for years?


Yeah, that's right, the Democrats.

[longeyes]

Pragmatism points to one thing: divorce.  The brutal logic of this will be obvious enough after 2012.

[MechAg94]

I heard that at least one network threw out a fairly high Obama approval rating.  Come to find out they had something like 70% Democrat likely voters answering the poll.

Every single one of these polls has all sorts of adjustments buried in the numbers.  IMO, none of them should be trusted completely.  

I remember Rush pointing out during the Presidential election that the only election poll that you can count on as really accurate is the one right before the election.  They all want to be right.  Before that, the only thing they have to worry about is how they compare with other polls. 

[longeyes]

That, I believe, was the AP poll, which was skewed toward the Dems.  Polls have become instruments of propaganda.  They resemble the tendentiousness of numerous academic "studies" that plague our culture.  If we want to know what's going we are best advised to do our research, upclose, personal, and in depth.

[Waitone]

Polls this far out do not measure popular sentiment (at least the polls the general public gets to see).  No, early polls are a feedback mechanism designed to provide correction to policy pitch.  In other words they measure the effectiveness of spin.

I think the deep poll numbers show an uphill climb for Obama because the campaign and related sycophants have broken out the "inevitability" argument of his re-election.  Hillary did the same thing in the democrat primary and Obama eventually beat the Clinton machine (which has not been forgotten or forgiven).

[Pb]

Look at the Ramussen polls.

He's a conservative pollster, and he generally finds the president with an approval rating of around 47-50%.  He rates higher than pretty much every potential republican challenger.
If you think the polls don't show he's the favorite for re-election, you are foolin yourselves.

One reason it might appear like he should be more unpopular than he is, is that quite a lot more people hate him that love him- still, about half of america "somewhat approves".  And this is before the media has been unleased on the Republican nominee...

[Perd Hapley]

Polls this far out do not measure popular sentiment (at least the polls the general public gets to see).  No, early polls are a feedback mechanism designed to provide correction to policy pitch.  In other words they measure the effectiveness of spin.

So true.