What happened with Iceland anyway?

[MillCreek]

^^^ I would be surprised if there has been a mortality increase.  Iceland was and is a First World country with a typical Nordic social welfare net. 

[MicroBalrog]

People are still dying, tho.  It may not be violence and catastrophe and mayhem, it's not stuff that makes headlines, but the defaults and resulting economic collapse still takes a toll in human lives.

Sure. But being unemployed in America sucks amazingly less hard than being unemployed in Russia, and being unemployed in Russia sucks FAR less than being unemployed in India.

You'll die from poor nutrition, overexertion, dangerous and ill-paying work, and inaccessible medical care. Maybe. Death rates will rise, no doubt. But not by catastrophic amounts.

At some point there will come a moment where American politicians will need to contemplate a default.

I do not know what will happen. MAybe spending will get cut drastically, balancing the budget, and Americans reconsider the role of government in their lives. Such a cut will ALSO cause an economic upheaval and many people will suffer.

I don't presume to know what will happen. But when people decided to create a massive government structure propped up by borrowing, they pretty much guaranteed one of two outcomes - either the structure would be cut, and the people who came to depend on it would be hurt, or there would be a default.

[MicroBalrog]

But that said, I don't believe either of those would be Argentina-grade bad.

America has accumulated, over  the years, massive amounts of wealth. Some of it is in people's dollars - and that can be wiped out by either of these disasters. Others forms of wealth, more subtle ones, will protect people from at least some of the fallout.

[Balog]

^^^ I would be surprised if there has been a mortality increase.  Iceland was and is a First World country with a typical Nordic social welfare net.  

When your .gov is bankrupt and its currency is worthless, how would "social welfare nets" help? I'm honestly confused by this statement.

[HankB]

. . . At some point there will come a moment where American politicians will need to contemplate a default.

They're already considering it in regard to the securities held by Social Security - only they're calling it "Entitlement Reform."

[AJ Dual]

When your .gov is bankrupt and its currency is worthless, how would "social welfare nets" help? I'm honestly confused by this statement.

If the .gov fiat money still has enough "faith and credit" internally, things can keep on moving.

It's where that currency, having no, or greatly diminished value, meets the international market for things that can't be produced domestically/internally, that things get dicey.

Say going to the doctor costs 150ISK (Icelandic Krona). If the doctor accepts the 150ISK from you, or the socialist .gov on your behalf, and then that 150ISK will still buy some semblance of sufficient groceries for that doctor and his family at an Icelandic grocery store, things will more or less be okay in the internal micro-economy.

When that 150ISK is worthless to buy imported oil from UK north sea platforms, which is needed to get the doctor from his house to the clinic in his car, or the grocery truck from Icelandic farms (assuming there are any, and that food isn't imported..) to the store, or buy drugs, and medical supplies for the clinic that aren't produced in Iceland... then you start to run into trouble.

However, if the Icelandic .gov has some sort of hard currency reserves from some other nation's issuing bank that still has respected value, they might be able to fudge the necessities.

Or they don't, and stuff starts going Tango-Uniform.

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

Has there actually been a sharp increase in overall mortality rate since their financial meltdown? I haven't seen stats.

There are strong correlations between poverty (however defined) vs mortality.  This is one of the few solid, reliable, "scientific" relationships that have been established by sociologists.  Plenty of data, analysis, and studies out there for the taking, if you're interested.

I haven't seen any specific stats from Iceland since the collapse, and I'm not sure that any exist yet.  But it stands to reason that this is what we'd see, all else equal.  Iceland is not special, there's no reason to think the rules don't apply to them.

I have anecdotal firsthand accounts from an Icelander who immigrated shortly after the crash.  He knows of people who are having health problems as a result of the collapse, health problems that could have been addressed before the collapse hit. 

[Balog]

There are strong correlations between poverty (however defined) vs mortality.  This is one of the few solid, reliable, "scientific" relationships that have been established by sociologists.  Plenty of data, analysis, and studies out there for the taking, if you're interested.

I haven't seen any specific stats from Iceland since the collapse, and I'm not sure that any exist yet.  But it stands to reason that this is what we'd see, all else equal.  Iceland is not special, there's no reason to think the rules don't apply to them.

I have anecdotal firsthand accounts from an Icelander who immigrated shortly after the crash.  He knows of people who are having health problems as a result of the collapse, health problems that could have been addressed before the collapse hit. 

I'm sure there will be an increase in preventable deaths. There is an increase in preventable deaths every year the East Coast has unusually high sustained temps. The question is, how much of a change, and how quickly will it occur? Will it be statistically significant? Hence my asking for stats.

[Tallpine]

being unemployed in America sucks amazingly less hard than being unemployed in Russia, and being unemployed in Russia sucks FAR less than being unemployed in India.

The worst is being unemployed in Greenland 

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

I'm sure there will be an increase in preventable deaths. There is an increase in preventable deaths every year the East Coast has unusually high sustained temps. The question is, how much of a change, and how quickly will it occur? Will it be statistically significant? Hence my asking for stats.

I dunno.  This kinda thing is hard to measure in real time.  It's usually only clear after the fact.

You could  dig into the body of research on the poverty vs life correlation.  From that, you could compare the economic losses in Iceland to get a prediction of what the loss of life and suffering should be based on all of the other past data from around the world.  It would take some legwork, and it'd only be a model or prediction, but it should give you a good approximation for the answer you're looking for.

That's more homework than I want to do, so you're on your own.   

[AJ Dual]

I dunno.  This kinda thing is hard to measure in real time.  It's usually only clear after the fact.

Exactly.

And on top of that is the issue of the public's perception of those deaths, the people doing the dying, and their circle of family and friends. Is it just going to be random "Ah crap, I'm dying!" sentiment? Or is it "HOLY HELL! I'M DYING BECAUSE OF SOMETHING DUMB AND PREVENTABLE DUE TO THE ECONOMIC COLLAPSE, ZOMGWTFBBQ! WHY? WHY WHY?"

How many had relatives here that died during the American Great Depression, and their family was bitter because the "Death was preventable, IF society and .gov at large had adopted THESE specific policies instead."