War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....

[MechAg94]

And a lot of that leaves out the fact that Taiwan has their own military with tanks and weapons and jets that might dispute the matter with China regardless of what happens to us. 


And it still doesn't address what would happen to China afterward.  The US and the rest of the world can live without China a lot easier than China can survive without the rest of the world. 

[sumpnz]

China completely collapses without trade.  Their terminal demography means they can’t sustain themselves via domestic consumption.  Even if every Chinese woman of childbearing age committed immediately to popping out as many babies as possible it wouldn’t markedly alter their economic trajectory for 20 years.  And it would be another 20 years before they became a major player again.  And they won’t en mass make a big cultural shift to large numbers of children anytime soon. 

A war that, between combat losses and famine kills half (give or take) of their current population might trigger a baby boom of sorts.   It’s entirely plausible that China could, by 2030 if they go to war with Taiwan/USA they could be back to pre-1950 population levels.  And economic impact on the world.

[WLJ]

Not saying they would succeed if they tried just that you really can't compare Taiwan directly to what's happening in Ukraine. They have some advantages in this that Russia doesn't

[MechAg94]

Taiwan is likely better prepared than Ukraine.  They have 4 diesel electric submarines as well. 

[RocketMan]

Most China watchers expect that the strategy for an invasion of Taiwan will start by hitting as much of the USN as is in range of non-nuclear weapons.  Then invade and conquer Taiwan before the US pacific fleet can respond (it’s like 6 weeks to sail from the west coast to China, probably 2-3 weeks from Hawaii).  The idea being to take the USN out of the fight before it starts and by the time they can get back in the fight it would be over.

Cranked up to about 30 knots, a fleet could make the Taiwan area in about eight days.  Call it seven days because they would hold off a day's sailing or so west of Taiwan to launch strikes.  Oilers and supply ships would have to trail behind some.  Make it 16-17 days if you wait for them.

[RoadKingLarry]

Not seeing any mention of the 7th Fleet assets forward deployed at Yokosuka and Sasebo, Japan. They are (on paper) significant. I'd also bet good money that we have several submarines in the area including SSNs and SSGNs, though the SSGNs were developed since I got out so I'm not educated on their missions and capabilities.
IF we had the "want-to" I think we could pretty well put a stop to any amphibious invasion fleet headed to Taiwan before they made landfall.

[WLJ]

Not seeing any mention of the 7th Fleet assets forward deployed at Yokosuka and Sasebo, Japan. They are (on paper) significant. I'd also bet good money that we have several submarines in the area including SSNs and SSGNs, though the SSGNs were developed since I got out so I'm not educated on their missions and capabilities.
IF we had the "want-to" I think we could pretty well put a stop to any amphibious invasion fleet headed to Taiwan before they made landfall.

And speaking of Japan, many forget about them. They've been rather quietly building up their naval capability

[Ben]

Ha ha - Time really thought they had something here. 

How Ukraine's dam collapse could become the country's 'Chernobyl'

https://twitchy.com/sarahd/2023/06/12/time-gets-smacked-around-for-historically-and-geographically-challenged-headline-on-ukraines-kakhovka-dam-n2384444

[WLJ]

Ha ha - Time really thought they had something here. 

    How Ukraine's dam collapse could become the country's 'Chernobyl'

https://twitchy.com/sarahd/2023/06/12/time-gets-smacked-around-for-historically-and-geographically-challenged-headline-on-ukraines-kakhovka-dam-n2384444

And the dam "collapsed"

But what do expect when the people writing the articles think anything pre 2000 is ancient history. You know, pre smart phone, aka the stone age, when people thought there were only two genders.

[K Frame]

"IF we had the "want-to" I think we could pretty well put a stop to any amphibious invasion fleet headed to Taiwan before they made landfall."

As I said earlier...

Our biggest enemy in an all out war with China?

It's not China.

It's our own Government. As in Joe Biden, Kamela Harris, AOC and her squad of America haters.

If the US were to really hope to win a war against China, those elements would have to be marginalized and minimized quickly and effectively, or as active lovers of all things Chinese they could quickly derail any effective response to Chinese aggression.


Only it would be Afghanistan in spades...

MR PRESIDENT! THERE'S A CHICOM INVASION FLEET HEADING TOWARDS TAIWAN!

Uh... what? Who? Uh... (trips and falls over...)

Secretary of Communism AOC? How do you advise?

The Glorious People's Republic will cast out the imperialist capitalist oppressors and liberate their suffering brethren of Taiwan! Reunification is now a historical inevitability! Death to the oppressor!

Uh, Mr. President? What orders, sir?

You heard the Secretary of Communism... ABANDON JAPAN! ABANDON SOUTH KOREA! PULL EVERYONE OUT, BUT LEAVE EVERYTHING THERE!

[WLJ]

Speaking of Chernobyl
Remember when you could still buy surplus ammo? Pepperidge Farm remembers

[K Frame]

Just read a short article that as the waters in the lake behind the blow dam have dropped, skeletons are appearing...

At least one was still wearing a German WW II era stahlhelm; others were wearing Soviet-era helmets.

[Hawkmoon]

Just read a short article that as the waters in the lake behind the blow dam have dropped, skeletons are appearing...

At least one was still wearing a German WW II era stahlhelm; others were wearing Soviet-era helmets.

Wow!

When was the dam built?

[cordex]

When was the dam built?

Construction ran from 1950-1956

[HankB]

Most China watchers expect that the strategy for an invasion of Taiwan will start by hitting as much of the USN as is in range of non-nuclear weapons. Then invade and conquer Taiwan before the US pacific fleet can respond (it’s like 6 weeks to sail from the west coast to China, probably 2-3 weeks from Hawaii).  The idea being to take the USN out of the fight before it starts and by the time they can get back in the fight it would be over. 

In this scenario, the fight for Taiwan might be over . . . just like the fight for the Philippines was over before the USN could recover from Pearl Harbor.

But it sure as hell wouldn't be the end of war with the USA. And if Biden tried to stop war after the Chicoms attacked the USN - he'd soon be ex-POTUS.

(One big question - how many Chicom sleeper agents are in CONUS right now, ready to hit refineries, pipelines, the electrical grid, and other places as a distraction?)

[WLJ]

Meanwhile
Could be a BS story, don't know, but something is going on in the video

A shocking video has shown Russian barrier troops appearing to execute their fellow soldiers as they attempt to flee the field of battle, Ukrainian sources have claimed.

Captured by a Ukrainian drone and posted to online messaging platform Telegram, the footage shows three Russian soldiers aiming weapons in the direction of at least seven comrades, and seemingly firing off rounds.

Return of Blocking Units?

Shocking drone footage shows 'Russian deserters being stopped by Putin's forces and shot as they try to flee', in scenes reminiscent of Stalin's 'No One Turn Back', Ukrainian sources claim
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12189359/Ukrainian-sources-say-shocking-footage-appears-Putins-forces-shot-try-flee.html

[MillCreek]

In this scenario, the fight for Taiwan might be over . . . just like the fight for the Philippines was over before the USN could recover from Pearl Harbor.

But it sure as hell wouldn't be the end of war with the USA. And if Biden tried to stop war after the Chicoms attacked the USN - he'd soon be ex-POTUS.

My concern is if any such conflict would remain limited, or is the next step the computer asking if we would like to play a game, and then Global Thermonuclear War.

[sumpnz]

In this scenario, the fight for Taiwan might be over . . . just like the fight for the Philippines was over before the USN could recover from Pearl Harbor.

But it sure as hell wouldn't be the end of war with the USA. And if Biden tried to stop war after the Chicoms attacked the USN - he'd soon be ex-POTUS.

(One big question - how many Chicom sleeper agents are in CONUS right now, ready to hit refineries, pipelines, the electrical grid, and other places as a distraction?)

Our immigration policy has allowed a lot of migrants from China, especially college/grad school students.  I fully expect a significant amount of them are expected to respond and engage in sabotage when instructed to do so.  How effectively trained they are to do that is another question.  And how they plan to supply the saboteurs with weapons and demolition materials is also another question.

[cordex]

My concern is if any such conflict would remain limited, or is the next step the computer asking if we would like to play a game, and then Global Thermonuclear War.

I agree, but then again I was worried that our intervention with Russia in Ukraine could spur a nuclear exchange and so far it hasn't.

[HeroHog]

Notice that no one's tried to "force an early exit" on biden?

[RocketMan]

Our immigration policy has allowed a lot of migrants from China, especially college/grad school students.  I fully expect a significant amount of them are expected to respond and engage in sabotage when instructed to do so.  How effectively trained they are to do that is another question.  And how they plan to supply the saboteurs with weapons and demolition materials is also another question.

Record numbers of unaccompanied Chinese males of military age have been coming across the border.  Makes me think something is up.  Maybe Xi is waiting until he has enough sleepers in place here before invading Taiwan.

[WLJ]

And another one bites the dust

May have been killed by his gardener

DEATH MYSTERY Pro-Putin deputy ‘found stabbed to death and buried in basement under his house’ in latest mysterious death in Russia
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/22672729/pro-putin-deputy-stabbed-buried-basement-russia/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sunyoutubestories

[MechAg94]

Biden Administration Set to Supply Depleted Uranium Rounds to Ukraine: Report
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2023/06/13/biden-administration-set-to-supply-depleted-uranium-rounds-to-ukraine-report/

The Biden administration is reportedly set to follow Britain’s lead in supplying Ukraine with depleted uranium rounds to arm a swath of American tanks planned to be delivered to Kyiv in the Autumn.

[K Frame]

Looks like the Russians have lost yet another top general in combat.

So sad...

https://www.ibtimes.com/best-russian-general-killed-during-ukraine-counteroffensive-3699744


So far the Russians have confirmed the deaths of 5 of their Generals in combat, and the Ukrainians have claimed another 4.

Add to that the deaths of dozens, if not hundreds, of colonels and majors and even more lesser officers. No wonder the Russians basically can't do anything. Their troops are poorly trained and their leaders keep getting killed.

[WLJ]

Ed Nash looks at the head of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Gives some insight at just how screwed up things are in Russia and how it's more like the Mafia on steroids

Who is Prigozhin?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_K3qDoqSmIE