War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....

[WLJ]

Internet size grain of salt mode on

Some people on facebook are posting Lukashenko is fleeing or has fled Belarus

Internet size grain of salt mode off

[WLJ]

Internet size grain of salt mode on

Dmitri Alperovitch
@DAlperovitch
Wagner claims to have taken Southern Military District HQ, regional FSB office and the Rostov city administration building

*No official confirmations available yet*

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1672431878626766851?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

What's going on in this video?
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672429395930411010

Internet size grain of salt mode off

[MechAg94]

Internet size grain of salt mode on

Some people on facebook are posting Lukashenko is fleeing or has fled Belarus

Internet size grain of salt mode off

I saw a Telegram post reportedly showing his jet was over Turkey. 

[WLJ]

Igor Sushko
@igorsushko
🚨FSB offices are being evacuated in Voronezh and Lipetsk regions. They are on Prigozhin's path to Moscow from Rostov.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672435559011328000

[WLJ]

Igor Sushko
@igorsushko
Russia: This woman approached the soldiers in downtown Rostov and asked if they're Wagner. They confirmed. I can hear the Kremlin trolls' heads explode.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672440281814417408

[WLJ]

Dmitri Alperovitch Retweeted
Liveuamap
@Liveuamap
Good Morning from Rostov

https://twitter.com/Liveuamap/status/1672436322017988609

[WLJ]

Anti-terror measures in Moscow - mayor

Moscow's mayor has announced anti-terrorist measures are being taken to reinforce security in the capital city.

Writing on Telegram Sergey Sobyanin wrote: "In connection with the incoming information, anti-terrorist measures are being taken in Moscow aimed at strengthening security measures.

"Additional control on the roads has been introduced.

"It is possible to limit the holding of public events. Please consider the measures taken with understanding."

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=64965e871babaa614a47310f%26Anti-terror%20measures%20in%20Moscow%20-%20mayor%262023-06-24T03%3A11%3A33.210Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:2542ec39-27ed-4f81-9afa-b2cdd49b92ef&pinned_post_asset_id=64965e871babaa614a47310f&pinned_post_type=share

[WLJ]

Igor Sushko
@igorsushko
🚨 Russia: Military columns rushing from Azov to Rostov-on-Don. These are likely Russian units that switched to Prigozhin's side.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672442517252603904

[WLJ]

[WLJ]

Even if this fails it's going to have a huge effect on the war. We could see a total collapse of the Russian frontlines coming soon. What worries me the most about that is how Putin will react. Mushroom cloud over Kyiv? Don't know if I would put it pass him.

[WLJ]

Igor Sushko
@igorsushko
"Special Rossiya air squadron flew over Moscow last night: Two presidential helicopters were spotted over the Simferopol highway, the Moscow Ring, and flying toward Putin's residence in Novo-Ogarevo. (outside Moscow near Rublevka)"
This might mean Putin has fled Moscow.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672449198615310336

[WLJ]

BTW: I'm taking most of this with a grain of salt

[MechAg94]

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672442517252603904

That would be a question about all this.  Would a portion of the Russian military join him? 

All speculation so far and I fully expect a lot of what I see to be false or misinformation (just like the war so far I guess).

[WLJ]

That would be a question about all this.  Would a portion of the Russian military join him? 

All speculation so far and I fully expect a lot of what I see to be false or misinformation (just like the war so far I guess).

Don't know but like I said in an earlier post they've got to be fed up with this *expletive deleted*it show. If any of the above is true some are joining.

Don't trust what anyone is reporting just relaying what is being said.

[WLJ]

Highway to Moscow closed - regional governor
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=649667a5523d5b1261708415%26Highway%20to%20Moscow%20closed%20-%20regional%20governor%262023-06-24T03%3A54%3A37.149Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:272be574-d84d-4dc1-9cd4-c9a29be2c2b6&pinned_post_asset_id=649667a5523d5b1261708415&pinned_post_type=share

[WLJ]

"Don't trust what anyone is reporting just relaying what is being said."

Case in point

Igor Sushko
@igorsushko
Prigozhin says half of the Russian army is ready to join him.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1672456671678038016

[WLJ]

 

[WLJ]

I give him a 20% chance.

But like I said before even if this fails it's going to have a huge effect on the war. We could see a total collapse of the Russian frontlines coming soon.

Edit: 10%.

[WLJ]

One thing that must not be lost sight of is that he has stated his beef isn't with Putin but with the defense ministry whom he blames for the war and it's conduct and turning on him.

I think the Russians will more than likely will crush him but this will greatly weaken their war effort. BUT if he can get enough Russian soldiers to come to his side all bets are off.

Will see how things look in the morning. Could swing one way or the other.

[Viking]

One thing that must not be lost sight of is that he has stated his beef isn't with Putin but with the defense ministry whom he blames for the war and it's conduct and turning on him.

I think the Russians will more than likely will crush him but this will greatly weaken their war effort. BUT if he can get enough Russian soldiers to come to his side all bets are off.

Will see how things look in the morning. Could swing one way or the other.

My guess is that's just a cover story. He can't aim at the king, not quite yet. He must strike against the king's evil and/or incompetent advisors first. Iirc he has referred to Putin as "senile old man that hides in a bunker like a rat".

[HankB]

Sounds like a 1930s gang war in Chicago, except on a much larger scale.

As for the veracity of whats coming out, taking it with a very large grain of salt (as already noted) is indicated. One shouldn't accept something as true just because it matches one's wishful thinking.

[K Frame]

Zeihan makes an interesting point...

This could, and I expect it will, lead to regional uprisings in Georgia and other places. This is going to lead to a lot of unstability across the whole Federation.

Unless the Wagner group is decisively defeated. And I don't see that happening at all.

[WLJ]

My guess is that's just a cover story. He can't aim at the king, not quite yet. He must strike against the king's evil and/or incompetent advisors first. Iirc he has referred to Putin as "senile old man that hides in a bunker like a rat".

Except he's been saying it for probably over a year now. But things change rapidly in war, we'll see. Putin in my estimation will probably give him no choice but to go all the way or die.

Edit: Based on a speech Putin gave it's all or nothing now.

[WLJ]

Sounds like a 1930s gang war in Chicago, except on a much larger scale.

Not surpring

My comment to the Ed Nash video back in 2549 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_K3qDoqSmIE

"Gives some insight at just how screwed up things are in Russia and how it's more like the Mafia on steroids"

[WLJ]

Reports they're in Voronezh, that's about halfway between Rostov and Moscow.
Confirmed by the BBC

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6496d2b81babaa614a473187%26Video%20shows%20huge%20explosion%20near%20Voronezh%262023-06-24T11%3A56%3A06.742Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:638c9f7f-e39e-4160-b0f9-82d523cfe0f2&pinned_post_asset_id=6496d2b81babaa614a473187&pinned_post_type=share

Also reported seen on the highway headed towards Moscow

Again confirmed by the BBC

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=6496d782523d5b1261708497%26Wagner%20convoy%20seen%20in%20region%20south%20of%20Moscow%262023-06-24T12%3A13%3A31.989Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:4de0773e-1e2e-4915-9385-9e350a6c3565&pinned_post_asset_id=6496d782523d5b1261708497&pinned_post_type=share