War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....

[WLJ]

Could also mean he went underground realizing he is not safe. 

Which also makes me wonder why he stopped when he did.  I can guess at potential reasons, but seems odd to go that far and then get cold feet.

Or already dead or maybe just staying out of the limelight. Could even be plotting his next move.

As far as why he stopped.
My guess even if he reached Moscow, and there was no guarantee of even that happening, then what?  Just putting his feet up on Putin's desk wasn't going to make him "Czar" without most of the higher ups and troops flocking to his side, they're weren't, and nabbing Putin.

Of course there's always the possibility he just wanted to send Putin a message. He's been quite vocal about the conduct of the war and the generals in charge.

It's a funny relationship between Prigozhin and Putin. Heck they could be sharing a bottle of vodka right now laughing their asres off about it.

[MechAg94]

If he was just sending a message, I would have expected him to stop at taking over the local military district.  But yeah, lots of possibilities.  Maybe later on down the road, we might even learn the truth.

[WLJ]

If he was just sending a message, I would have expected him to stop at taking over the local military district.  But yeah, lots of possibilities.  Maybe later on down the road, we might even learn the truth.

Putting the scare on Moscow would send a far stronger message than just sitting in Rostov slipping vodka. Just sitting in Rostov would have made it easy for the Russians to claim it was just a minor local dispute while they put a bullet in his head. By driving on Moscow he made sure they can't spin it that way and just bury it and him. He wanted to make sure all of Russia knew about it.

Not saying that was his intent just exploring possibilities. We may never know for sure what was going through his mind.

[HankB]

Wonder what the Wagner mercenaries are going to do now . . . I doubt Russia is going to continue bankrolling them. And as for joining the Russian military, I doubt they'll follow orders and fight for considerably less money than they were getting before. Especially since a lot of them are reputedly regular (not political) criminals.

[sumpnz]

Wonder what the Wagner mercenaries are going to do now . . . I doubt Russia is going to continue bankrolling them. And as for joining the Russian military, I doubt they'll follow orders and fight for considerably less money than they were getting before. Especially since a lot of them are reputedly regular (not political) criminals.

Better lower pay than a bullet behind the ear.  But they can probably assume they’ll be in the cannon fodder divisions regardless.

[HankB]

Better lower pay than a bullet behind the ear.  But they can probably assume they’ll be in the cannon fodder divisions regardless.

True dat.

But unless they're marched forward, unarmed, at gunpoint (bayonet point?) by some reliably loyal group like Russian special forces or whatever has replaced the KGB, you can pretty much count on them to turn on their kommisars and zampolits if ordered forward on a suicide mission.

[MechAg94]

I heard someone point out there are Wagner mercenaries working in several other countries.  Now they are without a boss unless the Russian Army steps in.  I figure they will, but that also means more direct Russian involvement where previously they had the fiction of being a step away.

[WLJ]

Wonder how the purge is going? Saw something about at least one general has gone missing.

[WLJ]

An awful lot of people fall off balconies in Russia

Kristina was at her apartment on the eleventh floor with her friend, 34-year-old Andrei.

He told authorities Kristina invited him for a drink and chat but at some point, around 3am she went out to the balcony and fell out of the window.

DEATH FALL Russian bank vice-president Kristina Baikova, 28, dies in mystery plunge from window of her Moscow apartment
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/22856405/russian-bank-vice-president-dies-mystery-plunge/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sunyoutubestories

[Hawkmoon]

Wonder how the purge is going? Saw something about at least one general has gone missing.

This general?

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/22838478/general-armageddon-vanishes-wagner-mutiny-kremlin-purge/

[MechAg94]

There were assertions earlier that Russia was saying there would be no more Wagner forces fighting in Ukraine.  I don't know if that means they got rid of them or if they conscripted them into the Russian army.  I assume the latter. 

[Ron]

Believing anything in the media is nutz.
The Russians were out of missiles. Except they weren’t. The Russians were out of artillery rounds. Except they weren’t. The Russian population was turning against Putin. Except it wasn’t. Russia was retreating before the Ukrainians. Except they weren’t.
I've stopped posting here in my own thread mostly because all I see is fog.
Are the Russians really demoralized, poorly trained conscripts with inferior weapons or is that just whistling past the graveyard?

[cordex]

Ron, you are correct that we can’t trust much of what we are fed, but the simple fact that the war is ongoing a year and a half later after months and months of near stalemate tells us something pretty concrete about Russia’s capacity for conventional warfare.

It is hard to imagine a much better scenario for Russian advantage but they didn’t win in weeks or months.  That is likely not pure propaganda.

[Ron]

Ron, you are correct that we can’t trust much of what we are fed, but the simple fact that the war is ongoing a year and a half later after months and months of near stalemate tells us something pretty concrete about Russia’s capacity for conventional warfare.

It is hard to imagine a much better scenario for Russian advantage but they didn’t win in weeks or months.  That is likely not pure propaganda.

Is this a purely conventional conflict with the clearly defined goals of a conventional conflict?

[cordex]

Is this a purely conventional conflict with the clearly defined goals of a conventional conflict?

As opposed to a nuclear exchange?  I haven’t been made aware of any nuclear component.

There have been plenty of conventional conflicts without clearly defined coals, especially at the outset.

[Ron]

I was thinking more economic and other types of unconventional means. We will probably see a lot more economic and conventional conflict before it escalates to bottled sunshine Molotovs.

 

[cordex]

I was thinking more economic and other types of unconventional means. We will probably see a lot more economic and conventional conflict before it escalates to bottled sunshine Molotovs.

Why would you say that economic conflict is not part of conventional war?  I have always used the term “conventional war” to refer to non-nuclear war which has historically included everything from economic, electronic, propaganda, and a variety of other off-battlefield elements. I guess I’m just not seeing the distinction you are trying to draw.

[Ron]

Not being a military buff or historian I'm probably not using correct terminology. 

[K Frame]

Believing anything in the media is nutz.
The Russians were out of missiles. Except they weren’t. The Russians were out of artillery rounds. Except they weren’t. The Russian population was turning against Putin. Except it wasn’t. Russia was retreating before the Ukrainians. Except they weren’t.
I've stopped posting here in my own thread mostly because all I see is fog.
Are the Russians really demoralized, poorly trained conscripts with inferior weapons or is that just whistling past the graveyard?

The Russians aren't exactly forthcoming about, well, anything, so a lot of what you see in the media is analysis and estimation.

But, the results of the last 18 or so months speak for themselves. Russia has met virtually none of the goals that it stated at the outset of the fighting. What goals it did meet have been largely nullified. The issues with their equipment have been well documented.

Russia's Army is roughly 3 times the size of Ukraine's, yet the Ukrainians have fought them to a near standstill and inflicted an incredible level of equipment and personnel casualties.

Most observers expected Ukraine to fall in a matter of months, if not weeks. Yet here we are, in a war of attrition that Ukraine may well be winning.

So yeah, it might be whistling past the graveyard, but it's a graveyard full of dead Russian soldiers and equipment. 

[dogmush]

I think that without solid information on Ukrainian force strength, augmentation, and how much equipment and ammo they are receiving and going through, as well as how much access they have to advanced ISR, which you don't have, it's hard to make very concrete assumptions on the Red Army's capabilities.

Certainly they had real logistics issue early on which allowed Ukrainian defenses to get set, but after that it gets fuzzy on both sides.

[MechAg94]

I recall seeing comments previously that Russia has a fixed production capacity for the supersonic missiles and artillery shells.  They can't keep up with a heavy bombardment and have no stockpile left, but are making new ones at a slow rate.  So someone saying they were out or low on missiles one week might be right, but the next week they have a few more to use. 

[dogmush]

I recall seeing comments previously that Russia has a fixed production capacity for the supersonic missiles and artillery shells.  They can't keep up with a heavy bombardment and have no stockpile left, but are making new ones at a slow rate.  So someone saying they were out or low on missiles one week might be right, but the next week they have a few more to use.

That is true of everyone.  We only make so many advanced weapons, which is why re run the lines all the time and stockpile weapons.

What do you think the US's Javelin and Stinger inventories look like right now?  Or our stock of replacement vehicles and guns?

[HankB]

. . .
What do you think the US's Javelin and Stinger inventories look like right now?  Or our stock of replacement vehicles and guns?

Maybe current levels are enough to make the Chicoms smile?

Now, if they could only engineer something to make us use up naval ordnance too . . .

[MechAg94]

Funny that you mention Stingers.  I saw this article earlier today.  Gives me all the warm and fuzzies about our military preparedness (or at least there are wide gaps).

Raytheon Calls in Retirees to Help Restart Stinger Missile Production
https://www.defenseone.com/business/2023/06/raytheon-calls-retirees-help-restart-stinger-missile-production/388067/

“Stinger's been out of production for 20 years, and all of a sudden in the first 48 hours [of the war], it's the star of the show and everybody wants more,” Wes Kremer, the president of RTX’s Raytheon division, said during an interview last week at the Paris Air Show.

The United States has sent nearly 2,000 of the heat-seeking missiles to Ukraine, which has used them to shoot down Russian aircraft. All of those missiles have come from U.S. military stockpiles. And the Biden administration said this week it will send even more Stingers to Ukraine.

When the U.S. Army placed an order for 1,700 Stingers in May 2022, the Pentagon said the missiles wouldn’t be delivered until 2026. Kremer said it will take about 30 months for Stingers to start rolling off of the production line largely because of the time it takes to set up the factory and train its employees.

I don't know the history on this.  Did we stockpile missiles and sit on them while not ordering any more?  Did we ever develop newer and better manpads weapons?  Seems like we should have been doling out some for training every year and buying enough to keep production current.  Not to mention:  Why hasn't Ratheon been designing shiny new Stinger II missiles to sell to the Govt?  Seems like a missed opportunity.  I guess it is yet another reason added to the list for not getting into 20 year military occupations in worthless (to us) parts of the world. 

[dogmush]

The short version is that we spent 20 years in a war with 100% air superiority, and no one wanted to spend money on MANPADS.  Last I heard a whole bunch of the Air Defense Artillery units had been stood down, and their people moved to other units.  We still have Patriots, but who wants to spend a carrier driving Avengers around when the enemy has no aircraft?

I don't know for sure, But I'd bet Stinger training is like other expensive ordnance and 90% of it is sims with very few expensive warshots going down range.  Hell it's hard to get a real AT-4 for training, and that's way cheaper than a Stinger warshot.