War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....

[RocketMan]

It wouldn't surprise me if any specialized tooling for Stinger production has been tossed, as well.  We have a history of doing stuff like that with effective weapons systems.  As soon as productions lines are shuttered, some politician says we won't need the tooling anymore (because they want to make sure something new and more expensive is developed in their district).

[K Frame]

I think that without solid information on Ukrainian force strength, augmentation, and how much equipment and ammo they are receiving and going through, as well as how much access they have to advanced ISR, which you don't have, it's hard to make very concrete assumptions on the Red Army's capabilities.

Certainly they had real logistics issue early on which allowed Ukrainian defenses to get set, but after that it gets fuzzy on both sides.

The Russian army stalled long before the Ukrainians began receiving any substantial assistance from the west.

Equipment wise the two forces were similarly equipped on an individual level. The disparity in equipment, in quantity and alleged quality, became a lot wider as it became more complex (trucks, tanks, anti-air systems, etc.) But even that didn't help the Russian army roll over the Ukrainians.

There have been a lot of comparisons drawn between the Russian army's performance in Ukraine with the Red Army's performance in Finland in the Winter War.

Poorly led, poorly equipped Russian troops were slaughtered by a much smaller Finnish army with both sides quickly becoming exhausted and agreeing to a peace treaty in March 1940.

Obviously the world situation is far different now than it was in March 1940, and in a lot of ways that doesn't bode well for Russia. Instead of receiving massive infusions of western aid, Russia is now cut off from a lot of the technology it needs to develop and build its more complex weapons.

The amount of corruption rotting away at the core of Russia is just staggering, and a lot of it has been centered around its military procurement and development programs.

I wish I could find it again, but several weeks ago I read a very interesting article that made some very interesting points about Russian military capabilities... the Russians essentially traded actual military strength under the Soviets for a facade of strength, and now that illusion has been shattered.

[K Frame]

That is true of everyone.  We only make so many advanced weapons, which is why re run the lines all the time and stockpile weapons.

What do you think the US's Javelin and Stinger inventories look like right now?  Or our stock of replacement vehicles and guns?

Very true. And that, to a degree, has always been true.

Case in point, World War I and French production of shells for the famed 75 mm field gun.

The French were producing, and maintained stocks, of shells that they thought would be adequate for a war that would last for 3 to 5 years.

Except... in the first 4 months they chewed through their entire stock of shells and paid hell trying to bring more capacity online.

Even when you do have the production capacity you can still have problems, as the United States found out in 1943 and early 1944. We had the ability to make the shells and cartridges the troops needed but there was one fly in the ointment...

Copper.

Copper was perhaps the single most vital non-ferrous metal there was during World War II. Copper consumption was astronomical, and even though the US had (and has) some of the world's largest copper or reserves, the demand for it outstripped the ability to get it out of the ground and refined into a usable metal.

What's that old saying? Your war plans survive intact only until first contact with the enemy?

[K Frame]

It wouldn't surprise me if any specialized tooling for Stinger production has been tossed, as well.  We have a history of doing stuff like that with effective weapons systems.  As soon as productions lines are shuttered, some politician says we won't need the tooling anymore (because they want to make sure something new and more expensive is developed in their district).

One more example of politicians saying "scrap it! War's over!" and someone having other thoughts...

Birmingham Small Arms.

After World War I, the "War to End All Wars!" much of Britain's arms industry was shuttered and scrapped.

The management at BSA, at the company's expense, mothballed the military small arms production lines, and kept them that way.

In the late 1930s, when British politicans were running around flapping their arms and trying to figure out how to arm the newly reconstituted British army because the War to End All Wars.... hadn't... BSA was able to quickly pivot and ramp up production at a time when Britain needed weapons desperately.

It was BSA that helped reconstitute much of the small arms that had been lost in the retreat from France.

[dogmush]

The Russian army stalled long before the Ukrainians began receiving any substantial assistance from the west.

That is untrue.

It discounts the significant amount of Western weapons sold at sweetheart prices to the Ukraine from 2014-2021 that allowed them to, among other things, *expletive deleted*ck up armored columns without tanks and deny Russia Air superiority.  It also neglects western ISR assets. We were feeding Ukraine ISR on day one.  (Probably actually before day 1)

I'm not saying that the Red Army is a big scary Bear, and comparisons to the Winter War are apt in many ways.  I'm just saying that we don't really have the data to say they were/are completely inept, and we also don't really know what near-pear engagements look like in the real world, so dismissing them as feckless may be a little premature.

[MechAg94]

I recall hearing that Western trainers were helping Ukraine prepare for the eventual Russian invasion ever since they took the Crimea.  You saw some of that at the beginning.  Instead of some sort of tank battle, the Ukraine had forces ambushing Russian columns trying to move in across the border, taking out tanks and trucks.  It didn't stop Russia, but it did slow them down and force them into a slow invasion rather than a quick take over, which initially they were winning. 

I am trying to remember what stopped Russia from continuing that slow slog of an invasion.  They were pushing in from all directions and gaining ground.  I think that is where Western weapons and supplies helped a lot.  I don't know how much effect Western volunteers have had.

[WLJ]

And another
May be a heart attack though

DEAD IN THE WATER Russian chief prosecutor found dead in river but ‘didn’t drown’ in latest mystery death hitting Putin’s cronies
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/22906323/russian-chief-prosecutor-dead-river-mystery-death-putin-cronies/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sunyoutubestories

[sumpnz]

And another
May be a heart attack though

DEAD IN THE WATER Russian chief prosecutor found dead in river but ‘didn’t drown’ in latest mystery death hitting Putin’s cronies
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/22906323/russian-chief-prosecutor-dead-river-mystery-death-putin-cronies/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sunyoutubestories

Maybe he slipped and fell on some bullets?

[WLJ]

Must be a day that ends in Y

This is the second sudden unexplained death of Lukashenko's officials in a year - in November, Belarusian foreign minister Vladimir Makei dropped dead.

Makei had formerly vowed that his nation - widely seen now as a controlled puppet regime - would not allow Vladimir Putin's troops to use it as a staging area for attacking Ukraine.

DEATH RIDDLE Putin ally’s minister Aleksey Avramenko dies suddenly in latest mystery death to hit Russia’s cronies in Belarus
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/22931994/putin-ally-belarus-lukashenko-death-mystery-crony/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sunyoutubestories

[WLJ]

Meanwhile coming soon to a milk carton in Russia

General Sergey Surovikin - renowned for his merciless manoeuvres - vanished in the fallout of Yevgeny Prigozhin's aborted "coup" after speculation he knew of the Wagner chief's plans.

The former commander of Russia's forces in Ukraine has been feared dead for weeks after disappearing from sight, while the Kremlin remains tight-lipped about his whereabouts.

MISSING IN ACTION Fears Putin’s ‘General Armageddon’ has been PURGED after vanishing for 2 weeks & missing wife’s birthday party
https://www.the-sun.com/news/8543280/fears-putin-general-armageddon-purged-vanished-2-weeks/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sunyoutubestories

[K Frame]

That is untrue.

It discounts the significant amount of Western weapons sold at sweetheart prices to the Ukraine from 2014-2021 that allowed them to, among other things, *expletive deleted*ck up armored columns without tanks and deny Russia Air superiority.  It also neglects western ISR assets. We were feeding Ukraine ISR on day one.  (Probably actually before day 1)

I'm not saying that the Red Army is a big scary Bear, and comparisons to the Winter War are apt in many ways.  I'm just saying that we don't really have the data to say they were/are completely inept, and we also don't really know what near-pear engagements look like in the real world, so dismissing them as feckless may be a little premature.

No, it's not untrue.

Purchasing on the open market prior to war means you have stockpiles.

Stockpiles that start to deplete quickly.

The AID, as in HERE'S $5 BILLION IN ALL SORTS OF WEAPONS FREE!" didn't start flowing until several months AFTER the Ukrainians stalled the Russians on multiple fronts.

Yes, Ukraine was receiving western aid prior to the start of the war, but much of it wasn't in hard goods of the kind that will kill a T-90. That stuff the Ukrainians largely had to purchase because the US has always had something of a weirdness about providing those kinds of arms to... "friends..." especially after US Stingers and LAWS rockets provided to the Afghanis started showing up in... unexpected... places

ISR is wonderful stuff. But it doesn't actually stop/deny/kill ground or air assets.

[K Frame]

"I'm not saying that the Red Army is a big scary Bear, and comparisons to the Winter War are apt in many ways.  I'm just saying that we don't really have the data to say they were/are completely inept, and we also don't really know what near-pear engagements look like in the real world, so dismissing them as feckless may be a little premature."

Nowhere have I dismissed the Russian military as feckless.

What they are is shockingly poorly led, poorly trained, poorly equipped... there's a shitpot load of more poorly descriptors that are appropriate.

And I'm sorry, but we have more than enough data at this point to say that the Russian Army is ineffective to a degree that the west simply didn't anticipate.

At this moment in time it would appear that the only thing truly holding the Russian Army in Ukraine is sheer weight of numbers compared to the Ukrainian forces arrayed against them-- warm bodies. God knows it's not their military prowess.

[K Frame]

I recall hearing that Western trainers were helping Ukraine prepare for the eventual Russian invasion ever since they took the Crimea.  You saw some of that at the beginning.  Instead of some sort of tank battle, the Ukraine had forces ambushing Russian columns trying to move in across the border, taking out tanks and trucks.  It didn't stop Russia, but it did slow them down and force them into a slow invasion rather than a quick take over, which initially they were winning. 

I am trying to remember what stopped Russia from continuing that slow slog of an invasion.  They were pushing in from all directions and gaining ground.  I think that is where Western weapons and supplies helped a lot.  I don't know how much effect Western volunteers have had.

Yes. The US provided significant training to Ukrainian forces between 2014 and the start of the current conflict.

But, again, that aid didn't (from what I can tell) an unlimited stream of anti-tank rockets, HIMARS assets, etc.

The Ukrainians started the conflict with stocks of Javelins and other anti-tank munitions, but were chewing through the stocks of what they had purchased, not been given, and used them to help grind the Russians to a halt before the western taps fully opened.

Had the west NOT stepped up to provide more munitions to replace what was being used, the situation on the ground today could well be a lot different.

[dogmush]

The AID, as in HERE'S $5 BILLION IN ALL SORTS OF WEAPONS FREE!" didn't start flowing until several months AFTER the Ukrainians stalled the Russians on multiple fronts.

This is untrue.  Repeating it doesn't make it more true.

And I'm sorry, but we have more than enough data at this point to say that the Russian Army is ineffective to a degree that the west simply didn't anticipate.

This is only partially true, at best.  Indeed I think we were all shocked their logistics capabilities were as poor as they turned out to be.  You can see my surprise at that earlier in this thread.  As far as their combat abilities, no, they are pretty spot on to pre-war estimates, and observed experience in Syria.  They are currently going through that phase where lots of folks are dying, but the ones that survive are veterans, and tougher for it.  That is, I suspect, one of the reasons this Springs Ukrainian offensive is having issues. Last year the Ukrainians were veterans, and the Russians were not, where as now both sides are blooded.

Had the west NOT stepped up to provide more munitions to replace what was being used, the situation on the ground today could well be a lot different.

THIS on the other hand is true.

[K Frame]

I've already explained the progression of aid to Ukraine.

You say it's not true.

Please provide a timeline to prove that what I'm saying isn't true.

So, essentially you're saying Russia invades day 1, day 2 Ukraine gets HIMARS, unlimited anti-tank weapons, and so forth and so on.
Just so we're on the same plane, Ukraine didn't receive its first HIMARS until mid to late June of last year, roughly 4 months after the invasion. As best I can tell, no European equivalent MLRS arrived much before that. And the Ukrainians didn't employ the HIMARS or European MLRS assets until a few weeks after that.

As I also said, Ukraine first received Javelin anti-tank missile systems as part of an arms PURCHASE in 2018. Other European anti-tank weapons, not sure.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-jevelin/ukraine-receives-u-s-javelin-systems-poroshenko-idUSKBN1I11ZY

By the time US replacements were introduced as part of straight military aid packages after the start of the war. Being far more portable, those were able to get to the Ukrainians far faster. But prior to those shipments hitting Ukrainian soil starting around late March or early April, Ukraine had burned through much of what they had purchased.

[dogmush]

The US Provided military AID to Ukraine under the Ukrainian Security Assistance Initiative from FY16 on.  More than a billion dollar prior to FY 22.  That aid included Javelins, as well as Anti Drone capabilities, ISR assets, counterbattery radars, and sniper rifles.  All systems that were critical to stopping the Russian advance.  We increased those aid packages in 2020 and again in late 2021, pulling anti armor systems out of CENTCOM and either directly giving them to Ukraine under USAI, or dumping them into the Foreign Military Sales program, where we "sold" them to Ukraine for zero down and no payments under the Foreign Military Financing program.  "Loans" that were later wiped out in aid packages with no money every changing hands.  FMF equipment "sold" in FY20 and FY 21 more Anti Armor systems, MANPADS, and Mark VI patrol boats.

After the the Russians crossed the border on 24 Feb 2022, we stepped up the urgency of the aid and pulled from existing war stocks in EUCOM.  The first ammo replenishment crossed the border from Poland the second week of March, 2022.  I apologize that I don't remember the exact date, but this isn't a Discord server, and I didn't take pictures of any slides.  (this is all unclass anyway)

So Ukraine was getting US military aid for years prior to the invasion, aid packages that were tailored to the observed Russian Capabilities from Crimea, Georgia, and Syria.  That aid stepped up in quantity and variety in early 2020 as Putin started saber rattling, and again in late 2021 as Russian troops started massing on the Russian and Belarussian borders, nad the restocking of munitions used to stop the initial advance happened in weeks, not months.

As I said the state of Russian logistics did surprise the west, and that contributed to the ease Ukraine had in stopping the advances, but to say "The Ukrainians started the conflict with stocks of Javelins and other anti-tank munitions, but were chewing through the stocks of what they had purchased, not been given, and used them to help grind the Russians to a halt before the western taps fully opened" is just untrue.  That's not what happened.

[Ben]

So I guess because both Ukraine and us are running out of spare conventional weapons, we're now sending them cluster bombs. The use of being something that we, last year, called a war crime.

[HankB]

So I guess because both Ukraine and us are running out of spare conventional weapons, we're now sending them cluster bombs. The use of being something that we, last year, called a war crime.

Bombs are bombs. You know, 'splodey things that go BOOM. Cluster bombs & rockets cover 5x the area of conventional single warhead munitions, so they're useful in clearing Russian trench lines.

The only legitimate objections are that a significant fraction of the bomblets are duds - they don't go off when they're supposed to, but they MIGHT explode when disturbed later on. It's not that much of a problem in Ukraine because once the territory is reclaimed from the Russian invaders they're going to have to send in minesweeping teams anyway since the Russkies are in the habit of mining and booby trapping territory they withdraw from.

One of the talking head military advisers I saw being interviewed on TV (disclaimer - that's where I got the above info) said we've improved cluster bombs so we get very few duds now, but we're not going to scrap the current inventory - he claimed we had something like 3,000,000 cluster munitions of various types in inventory, and we're probably going to start shipping old stock to Ukraine.

[Ben]

FTR, I wasn't giving my opinion, one way or the other, on if cluster bomb use is a war crime. It was what the Biden administration said last year, when the ruskies were using them. When we use them, they are apparently acceptable.

[K Frame]

The US Provided military AID to Ukraine under the Ukrainian Security Assistance Initiative from FY16 on.  More than a billion dollar prior to FY 22.  That aid included Javelins, as well as Anti Drone capabilities, ISR assets, counterbattery radars, and sniper rifles.  All systems that were critical to stopping the Russian advance.  We increased those aid packages in 2020 and again in late 2021, pulling anti armor systems out of CENTCOM and either directly giving them to Ukraine under USAI, or dumping them into the Foreign Military Sales program, where we "sold" them to Ukraine for zero down and no payments under the Foreign Military Financing program.  "Loans" that were later wiped out in aid packages with no money every changing hands.  FMF equipment "sold" in FY20 and FY 21 more Anti Armor systems, MANPADS, and Mark VI patrol boats.

After the the Russians crossed the border on 24 Feb 2022, we stepped up the urgency of the aid and pulled from existing war stocks in EUCOM.  The first ammo replenishment crossed the border from Poland the second week of March, 2022.  I apologize that I don't remember the exact date, but this isn't a Discord server, and I didn't take pictures of any slides.  (this is all unclass anyway)

So Ukraine was getting US military aid for years prior to the invasion, aid packages that were tailored to the observed Russian Capabilities from Crimea, Georgia, and Syria.  That aid stepped up in quantity and variety in early 2020 as Putin started saber rattling, and again in late 2021 as Russian troops started massing on the Russian and Belarussian borders, nad the restocking of munitions used to stop the initial advance happened in weeks, not months.

As I said the state of Russian logistics did surprise the west, and that contributed to the ease Ukraine had in stopping the advances, but to say "The Ukrainians started the conflict with stocks of Javelins and other anti-tank munitions, but were chewing through the stocks of what they had purchased, not been given, and used them to help grind the Russians to a halt before the western taps fully opened" is just untrue.  That's not what happened.

I've already said that the US provided aid to the Ukrainians before the invasion. A LOT of aid. And I've even said that yes, it was multi-layered aid. But it wasn't even remotely "Here, have enough free Javelins to stop every Russian armored vehicle 5 times over. And give a few to the wife and kids!"

The best numbers I've been able to find for direct "free *expletive deleted*it" aid Javeline shipments to Ukraine prior to 2018 was fewer than 500, primarily for training and evaluation use.

In 2018 Ukraine was allowed to start purchasing, directly, Javelins from the US and those purchases https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2018/03/01/ukraine-officially-cleared-to-buy-javelin-weapons/

At best, the number of missiles actually given to Ukraine as direct military aid, vs those purchased, prior to the conflict's start would have been a drop in the bucket in the face of what the Russians sent across the border.

Ukrainian purchases of the Javeline, combined with their acquisition of Carl Gustav and Panzerfaust 3 (not sure how they acquired those weapons, but I suspect direct purchases and not military aide) gave them the ability to stall the Russians before aid taps really turned on.

2 months into the conflict and the US had shipped, or was in the process of shipping, nearly 7,000 Javelins to Ukraine as direct military aid.

[K Frame]

So I guess because both Ukraine and us are running out of spare conventional weapons, we're now sending them cluster bombs. The use of being something that we, last year, called a war crime.

Good. CBUs are quite effective weapons.

"ooh, but they're so hurty and lingery!"

Yeah, so *expletive deleted*ing what? War of any kind has lingering effects.

[Jim147]

FTR, I wasn't giving my opinion, one way or the other, on if cluster bomb use is a war crime. It was what the Biden administration said last year, when the ruskies were using them. When we use them, they are apparently acceptable.

It's (D)ifferent when they do it.

[dogmush]

I've already said that the US provided aid to the Ukrainians before the invasion. A LOT of aid. And I've even said that yes, it was multi-layered aid. But it wasn't even remotely "Here, have enough free Javelins to stop every Russian armored vehicle 5 times over. And give a few to the wife and kids!"

The best numbers I've been able to find for direct "free *expletive deleted*it" aid Javeline shipments to Ukraine prior to 2018 was fewer than 500, primarily for training and evaluation use.

In 2018 Ukraine was allowed to start purchasing, directly, Javelins from the US and those purchases https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2018/03/01/ukraine-officially-cleared-to-buy-javelin-weapons/

At best, the number of missiles actually given to Ukraine as direct military aid, vs those purchased, prior to the conflict's start would have been a drop in the bucket in the face of what the Russians sent across the border.

Ukrainian purchases of the Javeline, combined with their acquisition of Carl Gustav and Panzerfaust 3 (not sure how they acquired those weapons, but I suspect direct purchases and not military aide) gave them the ability to stall the Russians before aid taps really turned on.

2 months into the conflict and the US had shipped, or was in the process of shipping, nearly 7,000 Javelins to Ukraine as direct military aid.

So now we're moving the goalposts to "prior to 2018"?  BS.

What you said was:

The Russian army stalled long before the Ukrainians began receiving any substantial assistance from the west.

and

The AID, as in HERE'S $5 BILLION IN ALL SORTS OF WEAPONS FREE!" didn't start flowing until several months AFTER the Ukrainians stalled the Russians on multiple fronts.

Both of which are untrue.  You can start adding qualifiers all you want, but the Russian Army did not stall long before substantial assistance from the west.  They didn't even INVADE long before substantial assistance from the west, and the resupply of NATO ordinance and ammo did not take several months after the invasion to start.  It took a couple weeks.  In addition to there being records available, i was personally involved in moving equipment and munitions from US stockpiles to Europe for onward aid packages to Ukraine.

At best, the number of missiles actually given to Ukraine as direct military aid, vs those purchased, prior to the conflict's start would have been a drop in the bucket in the face of what the Russians sent across the border.

This is just fantasy on your part because you don't know how many anti-armor systems were provided, and I'd bet a decent bottle of scotch you don't know how many tanks (or BTRs, or BMPs) were in Ukraine in Feb 2022.  It's my job to know, and I don't even know for sure.  I know how many they were supposed to have in each BTG,  but how many actually rolled, combat ready, to get shot at by the defenders?


I'm going to tell you again, then I'm going to let it lie, you are incorrect about when, and how much aid NATO supplied Ukraine in the end of 2021, and through March of 2022.  It is fantasy to think that the Ukrainian military stopped the invasion without substantial material aid from NATO.  The Russians didn't even invade before Ukraine received substantial military aid from NATO, and after the start of hostilities that aid accelerated within weeks, not months. 

[MechAg94]

This is untrue.  Repeating it doesn't make it more true.

This is only partially true, at best.  Indeed I think we were all shocked their logistics capabilities were as poor as they turned out to be.  You can see my surprise at that earlier in this thread.  As far as their combat abilities, no, they are pretty spot on to pre-war estimates, and observed experience in Syria.  They are currently going through that phase where lots of folks are dying, but the ones that survive are veterans, and tougher for it.  That is, I suspect, one of the reasons this Springs Ukrainian offensive is having issues. Last year the Ukrainians were veterans, and the Russians were not, where as now both sides are blooded.

THIS on the other hand is true.

You might be right about the "blooded" part, but I get the impression the Russian defensive lines now are multi-layered with lots of mines.  I imagine that has to be tough to punch through.   

[K Frame]

"So now we're moving the goalposts to "prior to 2018"?  BS."

I didn't set any goalposts. I've said MULTIPLE times that the US had been providing aid to Ukraine for years prior to the invasion - I'm not sure why you're not able to see/comprehend that.

I said 2018 is when Ukraine was approved for direct purchase of Javelins. That's not a goalpost, that's a fact.

You're not the only one in this discussion with intelligence community insight into the particulars of this topic. That's part and parcel to my job, too.

You somehow seem to think I'm claiming that Ukraine didn't receive a drop of anything at all from anyone prior to February 2022.

Go back and read my posts again. I'm not.

And yes, fighting Russia to a standstill is an oversimplification. But, fact is, by early April, Ukrainian forces had forced the Russians back in the North, and had stalled them outside of Donbas. The war in the south was a different matter, not to mention denying numerous attempts to seize Kyiv. So, my contention remains... Ukraine is punching FAR above its weight class, and was doing so prior to NATO and US taps opening fully.