War in Eastern Europe, what's it good for ....

[cordex]

Ron, whose fault is the Ukraine war?  I’ve seen several implications that you seem to think it is anyone except Russia’s.

[dogmush]

Let us not pretend that the current borders of Eastern Europe are somehow rooted in history or that they have some specific claim to legitimacy.

NATO, Russia, and the government of the Ukraine all did their part to kick this particular conflict off.

[WLJ]

Let us not pretend that the current borders of Eastern Europe are somehow rooted in history or that they have some specific claim to legitimacy.

NATO, Russia, and the government of the Ukraine all did their part to kick this particular conflict off.

Can't ignore history in this, we're dealing with people with 1,000 year memories, their decisions always have one eye on history legitimate or not. It colors their thinking while we can't seem to see no further back than last week. One of the reasons we keep screwing up in the middle east.

[Ron]

Ron, whose fault is the Ukraine war?  I’ve seen several implications that you seem to think it is anyone except Russia’s.

dogmush beat me to it.
 
Our foreign policy establishment has been bad for a while but it has really been a nightmare since 9/11.

We continually make decisions that make us weaker. All in supposed shows of strength. 

We all got high smoking desert shield and all of a sudden thought we were invincible, calling the shots around the globe.

[sumpnz]

Let us not pretend that the current borders of Eastern Europe are somehow rooted in history or that they have some specific claim to legitimacy.

NATO, Russia, and the government of the Ukraine all did their part to kick this particular conflict off.

I’ve said from the beginning that there are no good guys there.  Ukraine was the hub of money laundering and corruption.  Russia is a genocidal bully.  NATO has been a bully as well.

[Ron]

I’ve said from the beginning that there are no good guys there.  Ukraine was the hub of money laundering and corruption.  Russia is a genocidal bully.  NATO has been a bully as well.

We can be confident the bad guys will end up running Ukraine.

[Ron]

Ron, whose fault is the Ukraine war?  I’ve seen several implications that you seem to think it is anyone except Russia’s.

To elaborate a little further. I'm the one that posted the John Mearsheimer lecture earlier in this thread. Nothing I've read or run across since then dissuades me from agreeing with his take on the subject. The USA has been zero compromise on absorbing Ukraine into the western orbit, Russia actually tried diplomacy for a compromise only to be completely snubbed. Arrogant short sighted foreign policy bullies created this mess.

If you're insinuating I have some admiration for Russia or Putin. I'm German and Polish and have no natural affection for the Russians. I grew up during the cold war for goodness sake. I haven't met very many Russians IRL but the ones I have dealt with in the retail environment were insufferable. Putin was head of the KGB, why would one like or trust him? He's a spook who viewed/views us as the enemy.

 

[dogmush]

He's a spook who viewed/views us as the enemy.

He should.  We clearly view his country as an enemy.

I was in Russia in  '95. It was actually  really cool. 99% of the Russians I met were awesome people, and culturally very similar  to the US. (At least to where we were in the 90's).

I have often said if our two governments ever got out of the way enough for Americans and Russians to figure out how much we had in common we'd take over the world.

For better or worse that seems unlikely.

[K Frame]

We can be confident the bad guys will end up running Ukraine.

The bad guys end up running every place.

[Nick1911]

Counterpoint: Ukraine is a sovereign nation.  As such, their government is entitled to enter into whatever treaties or alliances it sees fit.  They were seeking entry into NATO.

Should NATO have hard declined them because it would cause too many problems?  Doesn't NATO entertain any country joining, if an agreement can be reached?

Arguments that this is NATO's fault seem to lean heavily on this idea that Ukraine doesn't have free agency.

[Ron]

Counterpoint: Ukraine is a sovereign nation.  As such, their government is entitled to enter into whatever treaties or alliances it sees fit.  They were seeking entry into NATO.

Should NATO have hard declined them because it would cause too many problems?  Doesn't NATO entertain any country joining, if an agreement can be reached?

Arguments that this is NATO's fault seem to lean heavily on this idea that Ukraine doesn't have free agency.

Their elections are even more suspect than ours. Ukraine is/was the playground of multiple intelligence agencies.

The retarded amount of money and materials we've shipped and supported them with makes one wonder whose side our government is on. Particularly when you consider the amount of money not spent on domestic concerns and the reported questionable levels of our ammunition stockpiles. Nothing about it looks pro America to me at all. Is there a military conflict we've engaged in since desert shield that has left us in a better geopolitical position and stronger as a nation?

How one can have followed the local, national and global news the last couple decades and still believe anything the lying deceivers at the top of the food chain report is beyond me. There is no foreign policy, just gunboat diplomacy.

I'm afraid we won't see a truly representative government in America until sometime after the US empire collapses under the weight of its own absurdity and incompetence.

 

[Ben]

Apropos of nothing but Ben's interest in his own opinion, I spent the time to browse the currently 113 pages of this thread. At the beginning, I was pro-Ukraine. Around page 45 I started to question things, and around page 70, I decided that Ukraine was at least as bad as Russia, and was certainly not a democracy, regardless of what they call themselves.

The only high road Ukraine has (IMO) is that they were the ones invaded. Other than that, at this point I don't really GAF who "wins", because it looks like we're all losers in this.

[MillCreek]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/23/world/europe/eu-ukraine-war-ammunition.html

Manufacturing 155 mm artillery shells is not as simple as flipping a switch.

[sumpnz]

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/23/world/europe/eu-ukraine-war-ammunition.html

Manufacturing 155 mm artillery shells is not as simple as flipping a switch.

https://youtu.be/lJKcdlj-Uiw?si=N4YMhYr3EuHdGL1P

[Ben]

https://youtu.be/lJKcdlj-Uiw?si=N4YMhYr3EuHdGL1P

I KNEW that would be the clip! 

[Ben]

Looks like Poland is getting tired of Zelensky:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66873495

[Nick1911]

Apropos of nothing but Ben's interest in his own opinion, I spent the time to browse the currently 113 pages of this thread. At the beginning, I was pro-Ukraine. Around page 45 I started to question things, and around page 70, I decided that Ukraine was at least as bad as Russia, and was certainly not a democracy, regardless of what they call themselves.

The only high road Ukraine has (IMO) is that they were the ones invaded. Other than that, at this point I don't really GAF who "wins", because it looks like we're all losers in this.

The united states has spent less than 1.5% in Ukraine what it did in the 20 year long wars on terror.  Considering how much Russian equipment has been wiped off the board for it, one could argue that it's comparative good value.  Additionally it gets to be done from a position of righteousness, and without the objections that come from having US servicemen dying in foreign wars.

Their elections are even more suspect than ours. Ukraine is/was the playground of multiple intelligence agencies.

The retarded amount of money and materials we've shipped and supported them with makes one wonder whose side our government is on. Particularly when you consider the amount of money not spent on domestic concerns and the reported questionable levels of our ammunition stockpiles. Nothing about it looks pro America to me at all. Is there a military conflict we've engaged in since desert shield that has left us in a better geopolitical position and stronger as a nation?

How one can have followed the local, national and global news the last couple decades and still believe anything the lying deceivers at the top of the food chain report is beyond me. There is no foreign policy, just gunboat diplomacy.

I'm afraid we won't see a truly representative government in America until sometime after the US empire collapses under the weight of its own absurdity and incompetence. 

If your position is that the truths are unknowable, then how can you have an opinion on events - one way or the other?

[Ben]

Additionally it gets to be done from a position of righteousness, and without the objections that come from having US servicemen dying in foreign wars.

But is it righteousness to side with one dictatorship full of corrupt oligarchs over another dictatorship full of corrupt oligarchs?

This is what has changed my opinion on Ukraine the most over the 113 pages of the thread. I'm not crazy about the US supporting a regime that imprisons the opposing political party, bans religions it does not like, takes over the news media, now decides to "postpone" their presidential elections, and though there's no proof of this last one, it seems they're kinetically targeting individuals not even from Ukraine who are speaking out against Ukraine.

I have to agree with Travis Hailey - this is some bullshit war.

[Nick1911]

But is it righteousness to side with one dictatorship full of corrupt oligarchs over another dictatorship full of corrupt oligarchs?

This is what has changed my opinion on Ukraine the most over the 113 pages of the thread. I'm not crazy about the US supporting a regime that imprisons the opposing political party, bans religions it does not like, takes over the news media, now decides to "postpone" their presidential elections, and though there's no proof of this last one, it seems they're kinetically targeting individuals not even from Ukraine who are speaking out against Ukraine.

I have to agree with Travis Hailey - this is some bullshit war.

I think assisting a country that's been invaded by its neighbor is a pretty easy PR line to sell.

Also, most every country including the US have implemented pretty eyebrow raising domestic control policies in wartime.

[WLJ]

Just saw something about France sending Mirage 2000Ds

[Pb]

I'm not crazy about the US supporting a regime that imprisons the opposing political party, bans religions it does not like, takes over the news media, now decides to "postpone" their presidential elections, and though there's no proof of this last one, it seems they're kinetically targeting individuals not even from Ukraine who are speaking out against Ukraine.

The USA has done pretty much done the things in red during some of its wars.  We banned the Communist Party.  It is still an illegal party.  Britian imprisoned the leadership of the British Union of Fascists during the Second World War (it was being funded by the Nazi Party).  Banning enemy-aligned political parties is standard procedure during wartime. 

The USA has engaged in heavy wartime media censorship.  During the first World War, a film director was imprisoned for making a movie about the Revolutionary War that portrayed the British as the bad guys (because they were our allies now!).  Once again, SOP.

Bill Clinton bombed a TV station for broadcasting Serbian propaganda during the Yugoslav War... killing people.  SOP.

None of the things Ukraine is doing are unusual, even for a "democracy", though perhaps many people would consider these things bad.  I have zero doubt the USA would be doing all of these things if our territory was being occupied by hostile party.  Ukraine is fighting against a power that has genocided millions of its citizens in the past.  No one should be surprised at what they are willing to do.

[cordex]

I’ve heard the excuses, but I’m unconvinced that there exist any justifications for the Russian invasion that hold water outside a Russian lens. Moreover, most of the justifications I see Americans pitching require discarding what Putin himself claims and saying “… but his real reason is __X__.”

I am pretty close to some Ukrainians so I’m sure that impacts my perspective too, but in general I’m more likely to empathize with the invaded country, especially given the treatment of civilians and civilian infrastructure by the Russians.

I’m not under any illusions about the Ukrainian government being particularly freedom oriented, honest, or free of corruption, but I also don’t think that any of those things are likely to be improved in any respect by a Russian invasion. The Russians aren’t looking to improve freedom of religion, reduce corruption, expand transparency, etc.

[Ben]

I’ve heard the excuses, but I’m unconvinced that there exist any justifications for the Russian invasion that hold water outside a Russian lens.

To be clear, I'm not justifying the Russian invasion. The invasion was wrong, the Russians are at fault. The veil that made the Ukrainians the good guys has simply fallen from my face. There are no good guys here. I repeat, it is IMO, a bullshit war. And to bring Travis Hailey back into it, I'm finding it interesting that the vast majority of retired Tier 1 guys who are on the social media are calling this war bullshit and are not fans of either the Russians or the Ukrainians. These are not cowards. These are the guys who would first die were we to get kinetically involved in this war. I find their opinions worth listening to. Again, JMO.

I too, have a very good friend who is Ukrainian, but I can't close my eyes to what the Ukrainian government is doing, nor will I conform to "But the United States did the same thing and would do it again." We have been living down Japanese Internment for over 80 years now. The things the US did are absolutely not "SOP". They are unconstitutional and close to, if not actually, war crimes. And would have been war crimes if we were the losers.

[Ron]

If your position is that the truths are unknowable, then how can you have an opinion on events - one way or the other?

I didn't say truths are unknowable.

After two decades of seeing reality playing out and not matching the narrative(s) we were misled with, we should be very careful believing our official sources of information. I'd add skepticism of alternative sources of information also.

My position is actually a radical commitment to truth, it's so out there that I drop support or stop listening to any source that I perceive is peddling narratives, stories or "information" I am confident are false. If they've lied to me in the past I no longer trust them at all. I don't countenance liars in my life, I limit all interaction and purge them if possible. Why should my media consumption or politicians I support be held to a lower standard than I have for personal interaction?

Whatever is going on with our government it is patently obvious that the republic, constitution and peoples will have so little impact on policy that we can say it's pretty much all over. It's just a matter of when the collapse happens not if it happens, barring a miracle.

[dogmush]

It occured to me today as I was reading some OSINT on the less savory units the Ukraine ihas been forced to turn loose in the east that this is not the first time the US has armed and trained some political extremists in an invaded country to help with a proxy war against the Russians.

Hopefully this doesn't come home to roost the way the Mujahedeen did.