Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: Ben on October 06, 2018, 09:25:43 AM
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I'm really curious as to how it will go. We know what the historic probability is, but this time around, I'm not sure it will hold. I see it as a couple of generalized scenarios:
Kavanaugh's confirmation satisfies the right, so they slack off, because voting is still a month away. It fires up the left, and they stay hot through election time. Had Kavanaugh not been confirmed, it would have been the opposite.
Or:
As I presumed elsewhere, this has all been about more than Kavanaugh (at least for the right and even the center, and even some moderate dems). This has been about a very ugly attack - including by senators who took an oath - on our system of justice that is enshrined in "innocent until proven guilty". Kavanaugh's situation has, I think, scared a lot of people because he represents not a Supreme Court appointee, but a citizen getting the mob shaft and the Kafka treatment.
If the latter holds true, and the left continues their nutiness about attacking politicians in elevators, restaurants, following them home, etc., and if their celebrity useful idiots continue to attack the country, I think the right through center remains fired up for the next month and that "blue wave" doesn't happen. I don't expect a big "red wave", but I expect a status quo or even a couple of seats gained.
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I think we are going to see a small blue wave in state level elections in the swing states. People are pissed, like here in Iowa, the GOP have had both houses and the governor since 2016 (governor since 2010), they passed a lot of legislation and policies that really haven't worked out and the result has been anger with folks who use the services, one being the privatization of Medicare. The program is ending up costing more than when the state ran it and folks are being denied services.
Also property and income tax breaks for attracting businesses, Apple was given a sweetheart deal for $208,000,000 in tax savings to build a data center in Iowa, after the construction is done they total permanent job gain is about 50 jobs. Numerous papers have shown even the payroll taxes and money spent for room and board locally by the construction workers don't even come close to recuperating the $208M.
People are also pissed about the large confined animal feeding operations and lack over regulations on manure handing and odor control.
Also paychecks haven't been going up much in the "growing economy" so people are pissed there.
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The conventional wisdom, at least on the right, seems to be that the Kavanaugh smear campaign has dampened support for Democrats, and united Republicans (pro and anti-Trump) in a determination to see that Democrats are not rewarded for their behavior.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/36798/kavanaugh-will-join-supreme-court-and-republicans-ben-shapiro
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I'm really curious as to how it will go. We know what the historic probability is, but this time around, I'm not sure it will hold. I see it as a couple of generalized scenarios:
Kavanaugh's confirmation satisfies the right, so they slack off, because voting is still a month away. It fires up the left, and they stay hot through election time. Had Kavanaugh not been confirmed, it would have been the opposite.
Or:
As I presumed elsewhere, this has all been about more than Kavanaugh (at least for the right and even the center, and even some moderate dems). This has been about a very ugly attack - including by senators who took an oath - on our system of justice that is enshrined in "innocent until proven guilty". Kavanaugh's situation has, I think, scared a lot of people because he represents not a Supreme Court appointee, but a citizen getting the mob shaft and the Kafka treatment.
If the latter holds true, and the left continues their nutiness about attacking politicians in elevators, restaurants, following them home, etc., and if their celebrity useful idiots continue to attack the country, I think the right through center remains fired up for the next month and that "blue wave" doesn't happen. I don't expect a big "red wave", but I expect a status quo or even a couple of seats gained.
I'm at the point of never ever voting for someone with a D. behind their name, ever again. But that's just me.
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I think we are going to see a small blue wave in state level elections in the swing states. People are pissed, like here in Iowa, the GOP have had both houses and the governor since 2016 (governor since 2010), they passed a lot of legislation and policies that really haven't worked out and the result has been anger with folks who use the services, one being the privatization of Medicare. The program is ending up costing more than when the state ran it and folks are being denied services.
Also property and income tax breaks for attracting businesses, Apple was given a sweetheart deal for $208,000,000 in tax savings to build a data center in Iowa, after the construction is done they total permanent job gain is about 50 jobs. Numerous papers have shown even the payroll taxes and money spent for room and board locally by the construction workers don't even come close to recuperating the $208M.
People are also pissed about the large confined animal feeding operations and lack over regulations on manure handing and odor control.
Also paychecks haven't been going up much in the "growing economy" so people are pissed there.
I'd be pissed if I had to live in Iowa again too. =D
As for the red or blue wave?
I'm not particularly optimistic.
Things will get shittier either way though.
If the Dems make big gains and control either or both houses we'll see a hard socialist push to the left undoing as many of Trump's accomplishments as possible , we'll also likely see even more partisan fueled investigations of Trump, Kavanaugh and anyone else they cab railroad to impeachment. Also a Dne victory will result in even more violent attacks against anyone opposed to their agenda.
If the Rs win we'll see a major upswing in hateful rhetoric from the left and even more violent attacks against anyone opposed to their agenda.
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I'm at the point of never ever voting for someone with a D. behind their name, ever again. But that's just me.
I made that decision nearly a decade ago.
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Hard to tell here in the Chicago suburbs.
It is still not safe to say anything positive about Trump in polite company, even though a lot of folks voted for him around here.
They have imported a lot of city folks over the last decade, they are aligned with the white liberal minority out here and that is trending a solid R county closer to 50/50.
The SWPL crowd are herd animals who don’t want the social status hit of being pro Trump pro Republican even if they lean to the right.
As always, who will turnout will be the deciding factor.
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I don't know if I think a wave will happen either direction. I think Republicans don't lose which is a big enough change from the norm. I would love to see a red wave, but I fear that is just wishful thinking.
If very little had happened leading up to the election, I think it might be a toss up, but I think recent events just reminded people why they voted for Trump. We will see.
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If the blue wave proves illusory, and Republicans retain bicameral control, expect Big Media to spin it as a moral victory for the Left. "It was so close in Texas!" etc.
If there's a red wave bigger than 2010 and 1994 combined, they'll push the White-lash narrative like no tomorrow.
If Dems take the House, they'll tell us it's an unprecedented rejection of TrumpHitler, and no president has ever lost his House majority before.
In neither case will Big Media point out that the minority party can be expected to win, if the other guys have the White House. No, it has to be about Trump.
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I'm at the point of never ever voting for someone with a D. behind their name, ever again. But that's just me.
And me too.
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I think in terms of national politics (Congress), it will be a slight Democratic gain in seats. I hope that is not the case. It will be up to the Republicans to keep drilling in the unjustness of the Senate approval process for Kavanaugh.
I have seen a number of surveys concerning present views and participated in one. I generally do not favor any party over the other in local politics, have a slight tilt towards Republicans statewide, an a big lean toward Republicans for national seats (Congress).
In Tennessee, we have a big and important race to replace Bob Corker in the Senate. Bredison is a former governor and popular especially in Middle TN (Nashville area).
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Here in Illinois we're going to end up with complete D control of the state (Gov, Senate, House), but hopefully will remain status quo at the federal level. (No senate races this year).
I do think that the R's will pick up at least 3 senate seats and maybe as many as 5 or 6.
The House may be a toss-up. Given some re-districting shenanigans in PA and other states, along with key retirements of R's. I'm hopeful for the R's to retain control of the house.
I do think the Kavanaugh circus has really fired up the Right and Center against the D's to and extent that will come as a surprise to the left and media on 6 Nov.
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I think slight gain in house for Dems and one or two seat gain in the Senate for the GOP. I don’t see a real Blue wave, and there probably won’t be a Red one.
However there may be a possibility of more GOP wins because of gains Trump has actually made in popularity among minorities that I’m not sure the polls are capturing. Also same due to economic gains among minorities. If those voters show up for a mid term election and vote Trump it may seriously erode Dem expected totals.
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If a lot of people don't bother to vote R because they feel it is a party of spineless losers and therefore there is no point in electing them, then the Rs brave stand and win against tactics that usually lead to an easy win for Ds may just energize those folks to come out and reward the Rs.
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Yes, and as I have long held that most polls favor D's by about 5% from actual voting results. There are several reasons why.
1. Most R's are at work during the day so they end up with more D respondents.
2. Even if they aren't intentionally designed to poll more D's then R's. (Push-polling)
3. Push-polling. To enerige one side and demoralize the other. (Which failed in 2016.)
4. Most polls are state/nationwide and not local enough. (again, most 2016 polls.)
Anyway if you go back and examine polls from the past 20-30 years you will find that ~5% margin between polls and results.
One other thing that has many folks energized to vote, besides the whole guilty until proven innocent thing is simply the appalling behavior of the left. From the various smears, to the protests, to the threats against Senators and other in the Administration, to complete lack of decorum. Yes, you have the right to petition your grievances, but show a little courtesy and respect. The Kavanaugh protests have come off as nothing more then a giant, childish, temper tantrum.
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One other thing that has many folks energized to vote, besides the whole guilty until proven innocent thing is simply the appalling behavior of the left. From the various smears, to the protests, to the threats against Senators and other in the Administration, to complete lack of decorum. Yes, you have the right to petition your grievances, but show a little courtesy and respect. The Kavanaugh protests have come off as nothing more then a giant, childish, temper tantrum.
To expand on that, also their absolutely psychotic binary lumping of groups. That is, either you hate Trump and want him tortured to death, and then you're a real American resistance soldier, or else you have any other opinion, from liking Trump to disliking him, but "meh, I can hold out", and then you're a supremacist evil racist devil, full stop.
That moderate right (or left) insurance salesman in Kansas who goes to church every Sunday, minds his own business, and tries to be a regular Joe, begins to think about things when, because he doesn't loathe Trump, he's called a racist or some other derogatory term and labeled as worthless.
I think people have also had it up to here with Hollywood lecturing them on this stuff as well.
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To expand on that, also their absolutely psychotic binary lumping of groups. That is, either you hate Trump and want him tortured to death, and then you're a real American resistance soldier, or else you have any other opinion, from liking Trump to disliking him, but "meh, I can hold out", and then you're a supremacist evil racist devil, full stop.
That moderate right (or left) insurance salesman in Kansas who goes to church every Sunday, minds his own business, and tries to be a regular Joe, begins to think about things when, because he doesn't loathe Trump, he's called a racist or some other derogatory term and labeled as worthless. deplorable.
I think people have also had it up to here with Hollywood lecturing them on this stuff as well.
FTFY.
But, yes the left has become "If you are not 100% with us, then you are against us, and we'll do whatever it takes to destroy you." And that scares the hell out of people. To the point they look around and say "They must be stopped."
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The Stupid Party is expert at snatching defeat out of the jaws of victory. They have multitudes of positive things with which to bombard the electorate as well as the Kavanaugh debacle. My money is on they roll over and play dead as usual.
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Pelosi has vowed to pursue the Kavanaugh thing further and bring up impeachment ;/.
After this win and the resulting tantrums, I'm thinking the R's might actually retain control. The opposition is just that crazy.
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The more the Dems keep digging, the more hopeful I get. Apparently, prediction markets have moved in the R’s direction during the Kavanaugh confirmation process.
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It's been suggested the Senate may turn up some dirt on the accusers, before election day, exposing another (attempted) "soft coup."
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It's been suggested the Senate may turn up some dirt on the accusers, before election day, exposing another (attempted) "soft coup."
It would be epic if the Rs could come up with enough to nail Dr. Ford for perjury.
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Pelosi has vowed to pursue the Kavanaugh thing further and bring up impeachment ;/.
After this win and the resulting tantrums, I'm thinking the R's might actually retain control. The opposition is just that crazy.
I saw that. I hope she escalates things over the next month.
On the other side, I saw some liberal groups started a gofundme or something that has raised over $3mil for "an unnamed politician" to run against Collins in Maine. I know little about Maine, so have no idea how likely it is for a dem to replace her.
It's been suggested the Senate may turn up some dirt on the accusers, before election day, exposing another (attempted) "soft coup."
I don't know that I'd be happy about it from the moral perspective, but from the "How do you like it?" perspective, I'd really like people to start going through the yearbooks of all dems in the senate and congress. Also all their spring break activities in college.
They still seem to be pushing "accused" as a viable argument, so that should go for their youth activities as well. Of course that would clear out both houses in a hurry. :)
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The perjury thing should be pursued somewhat relative to the Kavanaugh testimony(s) of the accusers. Somebody needs to put a stop to arbitrary accusations against people. It was primarily done for political purposes in hopes Kavanaugh would drop out or Trump would ask he drop out. The Democratic Senators need to be censured somehow as well. Making stuff up is just not cool as are wild accusations of unproved criminal behavior. Ford may well have experienced what she claims, so have a lot of women at one point or other, but I don't think it was a young Kavanaugh.
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Somebody needs to put a stop to arbitrary accusations against people.
Indeed. I saw the latest tactic is, "No one accused of sexual assault should be on the supreme court!"
I guess the way we do things now is just accuse everyone of everything. Then everyone can do and be nothing.
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I'm at the point of never ever voting for someone with a D. behind their name, ever again. But that's just me.
Obamacare - a 100% D program - has hurt me and is still hurting me. And I mean in real, tangible ways, not just in the abstract.
As long as it continues to do so, I won't vote D. I wouldn't even vote for a blood relative running for third assistant dog catcher if he or she had a D behind their name.
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I am thinking the Republicans are in much the same place they were prior to Trump's election. Internal polling and sentiment showed then that they were in trouble, and yet Trump won the election.
Internal polling and leadership sentiment show the Republicans are in trouble now. Lots of indicators that they will lose the House and possibly the Senate. And pre-Kavanaugh that is exactly what I was expecting to happen.
But the whole Kavanaugh debacle has energized a lot of Republicans, and I believe quite a few more will turn out to vote than would have otherwise. However, the recent fun and games has also energized the Democrats, possibly moreso than the Republicans. At this point I don't think anyone can accurately predict what will happen and we will just have to wait and see.
My gut tells me the Republicans will lose seats in the House, but barely retain control, and that the Senate is up for grabs.
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My money would be on enough of a blue wave in the house for the Dems to take control there and cause some problems (endless investigations). The senate will stay about the same though.
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Obamacare - a 100% D program - has hurt me and is still hurting me. And I mean in real, tangible ways, not just in the abstract.
As long as it continues to do so, I won't vote D. I wouldn't even vote for a blood relative running for third assistant dog catcher if he or she had a D behind their name.
I heard more or less the same thing on Gun Talk Radio yesterday. At this point, there is not really any such thing as a "good" Democrat. Even if they are themselves not anti-gun, they caucus with Democrats and contribute to the power of people like Pelosi and Schumer who make sure pro-gun bills get no where. Not to mention they vote to confirm leftist judges who will be anti-gun.
And before one of you bring it up, yes, I know the other side isn't exactly pro-gun. They are just the best choice. There is no such thing as a perfect candidate in politics.
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I guess I would say I don't think a blue wave will happen in Texas. I have no idea what will happen elsewhere.
Mainly I wonder how much of the "Blue Wave" is real and how much is Democrat funded wishful thinking trying to discourage the opposition.
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One thing I heard on the radio today was about Mueller. He and his buddies will likely put something in the next month to affect the midterm elections. What that might be could be interesting. Doesn't matter if it is true.
What other Leftist groups may be planning October surprise releases?
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What other Leftist groups may be planning October surprise releases?
All of them.
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I think Iowa is going to have a Democrat governor, at least he is a retired businessman and not progressive.
I think we are going to be 2 and 2 on our Representatives, maybe 3-1 Democrats. Dipshit King will get reelected by a huge margin when the Dutch reformed folks show up in the polls.
I'm not sure about the state senate or state house, I think it is anyone's guess, people are pissed at the status quo which is GOP controlled, so people may vote Democrat just to get back at them.
Rest of the executive elected officials (including my boss) should stay the same, both parties seem to be fairly neutral and serve all constituents well in those offices.
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One thing I heard on the radio today was about Mueller. He and his buddies will likely put something in the next month to affect the midterm elections. What that might be could be interesting. Doesn't matter if it is true.
Considering he's likely got bupkis and would like to maximize the effect of what little he's got, this would not surprise me.
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I think we are going to see a small blue wave in state level elections in the swing states. People are pissed, like here in Iowa, the GOP have had both houses and the governor since 2016 (governor since 2010), they passed a lot of legislation and policies that really haven't worked out and the result has been anger with folks who use the services, one being the privatization of Medicare. The program is ending up costing more than when the state ran it and folks are being denied services.
Also property and income tax breaks for attracting businesses, Apple was given a sweetheart deal for $208,000,000 in tax savings to build a data center in Iowa, after the construction is done they total permanent job gain is about 50 jobs. Numerous papers have shown even the payroll taxes and money spent for room and board locally by the construction workers don't even come close to recuperating the $208M.
People are also pissed about the large confined animal feeding operations and lack over regulations on manure handing and odor control.
Also paychecks haven't been going up much in the "growing economy" so people are pissed there.
TIF=/= giveaway.
The left is making the same erroneous arguments (to put it nicely) against the Foxconn project in WI. They are claiming that the state is giving away billions in 'taxpayer' money on land that was only generating a few thousand dollars/year in property tax to start with.
Of course its worse and far more dishonest here in WI - 'giveaway' claim also involves around 13,000 high paying jobs.
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here in WI - 'giveaway' claim also involves around 13,000 high paying jobs.
If that was the case, no one would care about the Apple deal.