Watch out "Global Warming", here comes the, "Mini Ice Age"

[Desertdog]

Scientist predicts 'mini Ice Age'
http://upi.com/NewsTrack/view.php?StoryID=20060207-041447-2345r

ST. PETERSBURG, Russia, Feb. 7 (UPI) -- A Russian astronomer has predicted that Earth will experience a "mini Ice Age" in the middle of this century, caused by low solar activity.

Khabibullo Abdusamatov of the Pulkovo Astronomic Observatory in St. Petersburg said Monday that temperatures will begin falling six or seven years from now, when global warming caused by increased solar activity in the 20th century reaches its peak, RIA Novosti reported.

The coldest period will occur 15 to 20 years after a major solar output decline between 2035 and 2045, Abdusamatov said.

Dramatic changes in the earth's surface temperatures are an ordinary phenomenon, not an anomaly, he said, and result from variations in the sun's energy output and ultraviolet radiation.

The Northern Hemisphere's most recent cool-down period occurred between 1645 and 1705. The resulting period, known as the Little Ice Age, left canals in the Netherlands frozen solid and forced people in Greenland to abandon their houses to glaciers, the scientist said.

[Dave Markowitz]

Time to get the wooly mammoth cloning project into high gear.

What's the best gun for mammoth?  

[Brad Johnson]

My prediction is that we may have fluctuations in the weather outside the established norms that could affect some forms of plant and animal life.

Or not.

Brad

[onions!]

O.K.
Everyone move to Florida & push the old people into the ocean.
Solves both the mini ice age & Social Security problems @ once.

A "twofer"-if you like.

[Lennyjoe]

That's about the time that I will move to florida as I will reach the ripe age of 69.

Hell, I'd be happy to still be alive to see the mini ice age.

[Sindawe]

I hate "News" articles like the one posted above.  They give NO links to the original source, or background information, such as this about the Little Ice Age http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age.  Unfortunately the Pulkovo Observatory site is not very quick, and the solar activity page is still "Under Construction".  I can't even find this Khabibullo Abdusamatov listed on their staff.  Sounds like bunk to me.

NCAR (http://www.ncar.ucar.edu/) does have solar activity data here: http://www.windows.ucar.edu/sun/images/sunspot_num_graph_big_jpg_image.html which shows very few sunspots during the middle of the Little Ice Age, but I don't see how one would forcast a drop off of activity this century.

Of course, I'm not a solar physicist,

[stevelyn]

WTF? You mean warmer temperatures are a result of increased solar activity? That "pollution", "greenhouse gases" bovine flatulence and republicans aren't responsible? And that we're going to experience a cooling trend due to decreases in solar activity?
 Do effing tell.

[Standing Wolf]

I'd prefer global warming, thanks all the same. I was born cold. I've been cold most of my life. I'm cold at the moment.

[Harold Tuttle]

guess where the ice comes from?

the oceans

hello land bridges and a farmable sahara

to bad about those mile thick ice sheets grinding New York City into a dump heap

[K Frame]

Frye: "Didn't you guys have global warming?"

Leela: "Yes, but thank God nuclear winter cancelled it out."

[Phyphor]

Huh??


um, could someone, maybe versed somewhat in physics, explain to me just how Sol, which is just a honkin' big fusion reaction burning hydrogen to helium (and later, onward) can tamp down its reaction, randomly?

I know there's going to be minor variants, but how the hell do you predict it like that?

[280plus]

It amazes me that with all the cockamamie theories bantered about by all these experts that NOONE ever mentionsthe precession in the earth's rotation. In Earth Sci 101 I was taught that the long term variances in the Earth's climate were caused by this little wobble. Think of a top spinning. You know how the top will begin to wobble as it's speed starts to degrade? The little wobble is called "precession". The Earth does the same thing. It has, IIRC, about 3 degrees of precession. This causes the line that represents the suns strongest rays (Equator)to vary up and down the 3 degrees over one cycle of precession.It takes about 60,000 years for the Earth to complete one cycle of this precession. Hence every 30,000 years there is an "ice age" and 30,000 years later a "warm period. The rest of the time is spent getting from one to another. Right now we are in the process of leaving the last ice age which ended about 10,000 - 12,000 years ago and working our way to the next warm period in the cycle. As far as the oceans rising after all the ice melts. I've heard that that is bunk also. Remember, the same volume of water expands and occupies more space when it freezes and less again when it melts. So yes the ice may melt but it will occupy less space as water than it did as ice. Therefore the level of the ocean might actually DROP as all this ice melts.

Try an experiment. Put a bunch of ice in a glass and then fill it with water to cover the ice or so the ice is floating. Mark the waterline with a rubber band. See if the waterline goes up or down as the ice melts. I don't know myself how it will go. It might even stay the same.

[cordex]

to bad about those mile thick ice sheets grinding New York City into a dump heap

You made a couple of typos ...
You said "to" instead of "Too" and "grinding" instead of "improving".

[K Frame]

Pyphor,

It's been a long time since I've had any astronomy classes, but stars can apparently vary their output considerably over long, or even short, periods of time.

At the time I took astronomy, the process by which this happened simply wasn't known, and it's probably still the case.

Probably the best know of these critters are the Cepheid Variables.

Here's a page that will give you some information...

http://www.aavso.org/vstar/types.shtml

[Brad Johnson]

I know there's going to be minor variants, but how the hell do you predict it like that?

Never underestimate the power of insanity.

Brad

[CatsDieNow]

It's related to the sunspot cycle.  They believe that high sunspot activity causes more energy to be spit our way.  Kinda like how sticking your finger over the end of a hose increases the velocity of the water coming out.

We are currently in a low sunspot phase, less energy our direction, colder temperatures...except here in Texas, apparently.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum

[El Tejon]

Cool!  Maybe we'll have those short-faced bears around here again.

Finally, real bears to be worried about.  Peter Panners of THR take heart!:D

[Iapetus]

As far as the oceans rising after all the ice melts. I've heard that that is bunk also. Remember, the same volume of water expands and occupies more space when it freezes and less again when it melts. So yes the ice may melt but it will occupy less space as water than it did as ice. Therefore the level of the ocean might actually DROP as all this ice melts.

Try an experiment. Put a bunch of ice in a glass and then fill it with water to cover the ice or so the ice is floating. Mark the waterline with a rubber band. See if the waterline goes up or down as the ice melts. I don't know myself how it will go. It might even stay the same.

Ice in the sea melting doesn't do anything to sea level for that reason, but ice on land (mostly on Antarctica, some on Greenland, a few bits elsewhere) melting means lots of extra water going into the sea.

Sea levels were a lot lower during the last ice age, due to all the water locked up in glaciers on land.  If the present ice caps melted, sea level would rise further.  (I can't remember how much off hand.  It would be less than implied by just working out the extra volume, as the extra weight will actually depress the ocea floor, making more room for it, but it would still be enough to drown most of the worlds coastal regions for many miles inland).

Also, as the seas warm up, the water itself would expand, further raising sea levels.

[Scout26]

So, do I need to buy a new parka or swim trunks ?

[280plus]

I don't know, I get the feeling the remaining ice on land is reallly not much more than a "drop in the bucket". We'll just have to wait and sea, uh, I mean see...

[Sindawe]

So, do I need to buy a new parka or swim trunks ?

I suggest both.  That way you're good to go now matter WHAT happens.

With respect to the change in sea levels if the ice melts, Wikipedia article states:

If all glaciers and ice caps melt, the projected rise in sea-level will be around 0.5 m. If the melting includes the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (both of which contain ice above sea level), then the rise is a more drastic 68.8 m. [4]

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise

A 0.5 meter increase would cause lots of problems, but nothing insurmountable for most people.  60 some meter rise on the other hand....  It won't be Waterworld, but you can say good-bye to a lot of the worlds major cities.

Oh, and I read a paper this week about how two of the Greenlands glaciers seperated by 300 kms have suddenly begun to accelerate down their valleys and retreat from their faces on the sea.  Their terminal ends are moving in the range of 20-30 meters/day.

We live in such INTERESTING times, do we not?

[280plus]

I'll believe it when I see it...



OK, I did a little reasearch of my own. It seems I WAS WRONG!! . hard to believe, I know.

The earth does not precess on a 60,000 year cycle it does so on a 26,000
year cycle.
This means that if the last ice age ended about 10,000 to 12,000 years ago we are very nearly approaching the warmest point of the precession cycle. This means we shouldn't have much more warming to go before we  cross the point at which the earth is warmed highest up its latitudes and start the descent back downinto another ice age. So if the precession theory is correct, the ice poles should NEVER completely melt.

Unfortunately there is another theory out there that even though the line of strongest sun DOES move up and down the latitudes due to this precession, the Earth STILL takes, or receives or "pulls" the exact same amount of energy so this precession theory concerning the ice age vs warm period cannot be reliably proven.

I did some more reading. Here is a link...

http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnature/050330_earth_tilt.html

[Ben]

The earth does not precess on a 60,000 year cycle it does so on a 26,000
year cycle.

You must be an old fart like me, and got your science education before a degree in basketweaving was required to "really understand the feelings of the Earth". There are also ~300k year orbital peturbation cycles within which the axial tilting goes on. You get a really good Ice Age whenever wobble and peturbation coincide at their farthest points.

I view sunspots more as a meteorological scale event rather than a climatological event. Nevertheless, I pay more attention to someone talking about climate change if they're an astronomer, astrophysicist, paleontologist, or other hard science individual. They understand timescales and recognize that climate change humans will see in the entire history of the human race are barely above statistical noise in changes that occur over billions of years. Too many "climate experts" have life science degrees and and talk about climate change in human, rather than planetary, timeframes.

It doesn't take a scientist however. When I was 8 years old, my friends and I climbed  the 2000 foot high hills behind my house to look for seashells.  Hills + seashells + a little common sense will tell you much of what you need to know about global climate variations, and how much humans have to do with them.

[280plus]

Yea, I was a little tossed off line when I read that Ice Ages only occur ~ 100,000 years. But you're right, according to what I read there are other cycles that intermingle with this one and when they all line up just right...

I had a friend who was a pretty advanced geologist and he used to rail on and on how the puny humans are just arrogant thinking they could somehow alter the climate, planet etc etc. He said the Earth would simply shrug off the humans and in a very short time in geological terms "forget" that they were ever here.

[Art Eatman]

Some strange creature who was all eat up with self-hatred and hatred for the evil US of A was ragging on me about how we're responsible for all this CO2 and the ensuing globular worming.  I pointed out how, since the science boffins tell us the warming is mostly a raising of night-time low temperatures, the warming is actually a Good Thing:  It will extend the areas for the growing of food grains.

More grain means less starving in Ethiopia.

It's for the children.

For some reason, I did not receive a look of approval for this view.

I'm saddened thereby.

Art