Author Topic: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences  (Read 24625 times)

Firethorn

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #100 on: July 23, 2007, 10:29:10 AM »
I drove by the ethanol plant yesterday in Nevada, IA, they are paying a spot price of $2.98 a bushell for corn. Before all the ethanol bruhaha corn usually sold for around $1.75-$2.00 a bushell.

Maybe the prices are coming down on corn, but I did see futures trading at $3.43 for March 08 corn.

Youch....

Still, speculators do lose their shirts on occasion.  In this case it could happen since there is a point that ethanol producers, even with subsidies, won't be able to operate on a profit and will shut down/reduce production if the price goes high enough.  I also think that there's going to be a huge increase in corn production., to the point of making other grains more expensive because so many farmers switched over.

Thor

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #101 on: July 23, 2007, 12:44:19 PM »
  I also think that there's going to be a huge increase in corn production., to the point of making other grains more expensive because so many farmers switched over.

Yep, more unintended consequences. One of the farmers I know has planted ALL of his acreage in corn, vs the other mix of stuff he normally plants. I hope it works out for him.
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Gewehr98

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #102 on: July 23, 2007, 01:07:05 PM »
I'm trying to figure out which alternative motor fuel doesn't have unintended consequences.  In other words, everything has a ripple effect, as we plod along down the fossil fuel path waiting for the end to come. The petroleum infrastructure had consequences, too, but they're glossed over because society has accepted them over time, building an entire world economy around that particular product.  We've grown dependent on the stuff, and anything that deviates from that oil well-to-tailpipe dependency creates shock waves nowadays. 

We have lots of coal, but making a clean-burning steam locomotive is still out of our reach, and so the EPA and other environmental agencies would nip that one in the bud - no big 4-6-6-4 Challenger articulated locos going cross country again. Hell, bicycling would be a good idea, but it'll cost petroleum to make all those bikes, and to ship all the extra food to satisfy the calorie requirements of all the bicyclists. Then those hard-working bicyclists will add to the greenhouse gas methane burden as they process their enchilada fuel while riding to work.  Soccer mommies aren't going to want to haul their precious cargoes to and from Tumblebugs on a multi-person bike, either.  Manedwolf is decidedly anti-social, and he has kin out there, I'm sure. Oh, the horror.  Where does it all end?    shocked
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Thor

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #103 on: July 23, 2007, 02:02:25 PM »
I STILL would like to know when they are going to take advantage of that huge oil find in the Gulf of Mexico. Sure seems like folks are dragging their feet on that one. Enough oil to last this country some 500 years(?) or some long period of time.
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Firethorn

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #104 on: July 23, 2007, 06:05:51 PM »
I'm trying to figure out which alternative motor fuel doesn't have unintended consequences.

Everything in our economy today is cross-connected.  Reduce oil production, and ripples spread.  Make oil expensive, ripples spread.  Make cedar more expensive and it'll have an effect on the price of milk.

The trick is to not worry about this stuff too much, it'll all balance out in the end.  Part of the reason I dislike the government interfering too much, it creates uneconomical distortions.  With the possible exemption of food, where you can't afford big ripples because people starve to death on the low end, and supplies necessary to military operations I think that not much should be subsidized or taxed heavily*.

I like the idea of keeping the government out of it because stuff like this happens - subsidies and requirements(some states require all gasoline sold to be mixed with 10% ethanol) have the effect of making ethanol profitable in situations where it really shouldn't, costing us more in taxes and other consequences.

*A small to moderate tax to pay for things like military, police, fire, courts, care for the truly disabled(like true retardation and/or severe physical handicap).

Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #105 on: July 23, 2007, 07:58:40 PM »
Firethorn is right.  Any change in the current economic equilibrium will result in fluctuations, at least for a while.  But a new equilibrium will be reached eventually.  It is inevitable (assuming the gov doesn't interfere too much), and it will occur naturally.  That's what free markets do.  That's what we're seeing right now.

Corn is cheap and in high supply, and fuel is expensive and in short supply.  The market is correcting itself, balancing out the overabundance of corn with the underabundance of fuel.  It will continue to adjust and adapt, until a new equilibrium is reached.  This is a good thing!

Many of you seem to be operating under the impression that the market could somehow divert too much food production into fuel production.  When push comes to shove, people will choose having enough food over having enough vehicle fuel, and the market will accommodate them.  The ethanol plants will shut down lickity split if people start going hungry.  Count on it.  So long as the market remains nominally free, the unintended consequences will work themselves out.

One important consideration seems to be overlooked in all of the preceding discussions: we have gobs of corn, we want gobs of vehicle fuel.  Regardless of how inefficient and clumsy corn ethanol is, it allows us to transform something we don't need into something we do.  Until that changes, entrepreneurs and/or govninnies will continue to dabble in corn ethanol, at least to some extent.

roo_ster

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #106 on: July 24, 2007, 01:39:34 AM »
HTG:

You are missing Firethorn's point.  Whatever sort of equilibrium we get to, it won't be natural.  It will be an artificial, bloated distorted false-equilibrium.  False, because if any of the gooberment props (subsidy, mandates, etc) are kicked out from under it, the mess will come crashing down because ethanol from corn sugar grown in the USA is not viable.  It is not a rational choice, economically, without gooberment forcing it down our throats and giving it to us in the poop chute.

It doesn't really matter how "cheap" corn is in the absolute sense.  It is still much more costly to turn it into fuel relative to petroleum.

Also, we have gobs of corn if we use it for food.  If we use it for fuel, we have very little and only a small fraction of what we would need to fuel our fleet of automobiles.  I did the math earlier in the thread and I am not the first. 

If, for some reason ethanol ends up being THE ANSWER after duelling it out with petroleum and other options in the market, I would be fine with that.  I am not fine with subsidy and mandates forcing a non-solution on us that anybody with an internet connection and math-literacy can debunk.
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Gewehr98

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #107 on: July 24, 2007, 04:38:30 AM »
Debunking is such a funny word, because it implies that it's the last word on the topic.

I dunno.  Depends who you ask, I guess. SUppose these guys have cranial-rectal inversion syndrome, too?

http://www.e85fuel.com/news/072007/cfdc_issue_brief.pdf
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roo_ster

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #108 on: July 24, 2007, 05:08:45 AM »
G98:

You don't have to take anybody's word for anything.

If you don't believe me, look up the US Gov't's estimated amount of cropland currently devoted to corn & other staples, the avg yield/acre of corn, the amt of Eth one can distill form corn sugars, the energy content of Eth & petroleum products and DO THE MATH.

Even assuming faeries provide the energy to distill the Eth for free, ieth from sugar produced in the USA is not a solution.
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roo_ster

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Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #109 on: July 24, 2007, 07:44:21 AM »
I don't think anyone is claiming ethanol is a final solution, or even that it is viable outside of some very specific conditions.

My claim (and I believe Firethorn's as well) is that what we're seeing is the market adapting itself.  This will inevitably result in changes in the economic equilibrium that effect a wide swatch of the economy.  This isn't a manifestation of "unintended consequences", it's the natural result of the market at work.

The government has been meddling with both crop production and fuel production for decades.  Government subsidies and regulations and suchlike may be artificial, but they're still real, they still exist, and they still affect the market.  The market will adapt to them as readily as to any other aspect of the economic situation. 

The fact is that government regulations do exist, and they do make ethanol a viable and profitable use of corn.  Don't be surprised or alarmed that the market is responding.

Firethorn

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #110 on: July 24, 2007, 07:46:22 AM »
the amt of Eth one can distill form corn sugars, the energy content of Eth & petroleum products and DO THE MATH.

Even assuming faeries provide the energy to distill the Eth for free, ieth from sugar produced in the USA is not a solution.

What's all this about sugars?  Ethanol for fuels is made mostly from starches - minor nitpick I know, but important.  You don't make ethanol out of corn syrup, you make it out of whole kernels.  The cellulose and other things that can't be broken down end up as silage.

Ethanol from corn kernals will always be a nich market, but there are alternatives out there that can be a major alternative - such as biofuel from algae where you can get the necessary biomass and don't need major amounts of effort.

Quote
The fact is that government regulations do exist, and they do make ethanol a viable and profitable use of corn.  Don't be surprised or alarmed that the market is responding.

Agreed.

Gewehr98

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #111 on: July 24, 2007, 09:14:05 AM »
That's why I have a hard time believing Jfruser's argument - he's saying it's the corn sugars that are being converted into alcohol.  Not hardly, and whatever source he's read that states that particular tidbit makes me really wonder with respect to their (his?) accuracy.  undecided
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Thor

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #112 on: July 24, 2007, 10:05:09 AM »
My Father in law used to get corn silage for his cattle. After a while of sitting around, especially in the warm weather, it would start to smell just like alcohol. More like a moldy alcohol, but alcohol just the same.
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charby

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #113 on: July 24, 2007, 10:13:03 AM »
My Father in law used to get corn silage for his cattle. After a while of sitting around, especially in the warm weather, it would start to smell just like alcohol. More like a moldy alcohol, but alcohol just the same.

There is and starches sugars  in the stalks and leaves, just less of a concentration then in the kernels. Starches will break down to sugars with heat, also silage in an anaerobic environment and fermentation occurs quite easily. I don't have enough time to explain the process.

IIRC, the sugar in the kernels have turned to starches long before they harvest dent corn.

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roo_ster

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If You Get Ethanol From It, It Is MOst Likely A Sugar
« Reply #114 on: July 24, 2007, 10:23:13 AM »
For.  The.  Love.  Of.  Pete.

I used to brew beer, sometimes even going to the effort of malting barley myself.  That is where I get most of my terminology for such processes.  For instance:
Malted Barley: A form of raw barley processed in a controlled environment (to let the grain germinate and sprout partially), then dried. The chief purpose of this process is to naturally create sugar and soluble starches, which are needed to brew beer

Malted grain is used to make beer, whisky, and malt vinegar. Malting grains develops the enzymes that are required to modify the grain's starches into sugars, principally maltose. Barley is the most common malt because of its high diastatic power or enzyme content. Other grains may be malted, although the resulting malt may not have sufficient enzymatic content to convert its own starch content fully and efficiently.

The malt is crushed to break apart the grain kernels, increase their surface area, and separate the smaller pieces from the husks. The resulting grist is mixed with heated water in a vat called a "mash tun" for a process known as "mashing". During this process, natural enzymes within the malt break down much of the starch into sugars which play a vital part in the fermentation process. Mashing usually takes 1 to 2 hours, and during this time various temperature rests (waiting periods) activate different enzymes depending upon the type of malt being used, its modification level, and the desires of the brewmaster. The activity of these enzymes convert the starches of the grains to dextrines and then to fermentable sugars such as maltose. The mash tun generally contains a slotted "false bottom" or other form of manifold which acts as a strainer allowing for the separation of the liquid from the grain.

[Beer Tangent: The most common ingredient used in home brewing is corn sugar, dextrose obtained from corn starch.  Sometimes added during the fermentation process to give the saccharomyces cerevisiae more to chow down on & create more ethyl alcohol, sometimes added right before bottling to produce carbonation.]

So, the brewer & then distiller views it all as sugar and every one I ever spoke with in that culture referred to it as such.  Some of the carbohydrates may start out as starches, but it is going to be worked on by enzymes into sugars if you expect it to be consumed by the yeast and transformed into CO2* & ethyl alcohol.

If the ethanol production facilities using corn to produce ethanol are using a different process NOT involving malt/mash/enzymes/yeast, I would be interested.  There are other ways, but getting little microorganisms to do the work for you has been the means of choice for millenia.

Answered my own question:
Conventional ethanol and cellulosic ethanol are the same product, but are produced utilizing different feedstocks and processes. Conventional ethanol is derived from grains such as corn and wheat or soybeans. Corn, the predominant feedstock, is converted to ethanol in either a dry or wet milling process. In dry milling operations, liquefied corn starch is produced by heating corn meal with water and enzymes. A second enzyme converts the liquefied starch to sugars, which are fermented by yeast into ethanol and carbon dioxide. Wet milling operations separate the fiber, germ (oil), and protein from the starch before it is fermented into ethanol.
Same thing I used to do and humans have done since the Egyptians.

In the end, terminology does not matter , as the BTU content of ethyl alcohol is what it is, no matter how it is obtained.  Also, corn yield per acre does fluctuate, but mean yields and acreage devoted to corn & other ag foodstuffs, and the amount of ethanol produced from a given amount of corn can be determined. 

* [enviro_squeal]Eek! CO2 is a byproduct of ethanol production?!  How are they getting the energy to heat up the mash?!  Coal-fired plants, maybe?![/enviro_squeal]  It does look like there is no such thing as a free lunch, free beer, or internal combustion engines running on carbon-heavy compounds that don't produce CO2 somewhere in the mix.  Or wort.
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roo_ster

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roo_ster

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #115 on: July 24, 2007, 10:32:47 AM »
G98:

An Iowa State U report on the wonderfulness of ethanol as a fuel*?  Whodda thunk it?  I think that is one of the few topics on which Iowa State & U of Iowa alumni can agree.

Of course, they address only a small part of the deal, leaving out such elephants as the extra complexity of transporting ethanol, as it can not be shipped via pipelines, requiring trucks that burn diesel to move it about.  I do like the chart on increasing yields per acre, though.  Could increased use of fertilizer be a factor?

* Which poster wondered just who funded an ethanol study I cited previously?
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Thor

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Re: Ethanol & The Law of Unintended Consequences
« Reply #116 on: July 24, 2007, 12:56:39 PM »
jfruser, I concur that it's the fermentation process that obtains the alcohol. I have to wonder where all of that excess CO2 is going to go?? As we ALL know, CO2 IS a greenhouse gas.  rolleyes
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