SCOTUS to rule on Obamacare.

[MicroBalrog]

WASHINGTON—The long-awaited Supreme Court showdown over the Obama administration's health-care overhaul formally began Monday as the justices agreed to consider a high-profile challenge to the law.

source


Ladies and gentlemen, as per the tradition of APS, I suggest each of us should make a falsifiable prediction as to the outcome.

I will go first:

1. The challenge will be thrown out.

2. It will be thrown out at 6-3 or worse. Scalia, and possible other conservatives, will vote with the majority.

[AZRedhawk44]

1.  Obamacare will be ruled Constitutional by SCOTUS.  5-4.  Alito/Scalia/Thomas/Roberts on the losing side.

2.  This will ENRAGE the conservative voting bloc and put more conservatives into the Senate and House, and the legislative bodies will attempt repeal via Legislative Edict.  However, Obama will win re-election and will veto the attempts.  Unsure if a 66% percent will exist in both Houses to support an override.  Probably not.  It will survive until 2017 and a new POTUS.

[roo_ster]

Thomas votes to overturn it.

I, too, share your doubt that a majority of the SCOTUS will remember their oaths.

[S. Williamson]

Obamacare will be ruled Constitutional by SCOTUS.  5-4.  Alito/Scalia/Thomas/Roberts on the losing side.  This will ENRAGE the conservative voting bloc and put more conservatives into the Senate and House, and the legislative bodies will attempt repeal via Legislative Edict.  However, Obama will win re-election and will veto the attempts.  Unsure if a 66% percent will exist in both Houses to support an override.  Probably not.  It will survive until 2017 and a new POTUS. beyond.

My opinion - we haven't reformed/ removed Social Security or the NFA.  This won't go away, either.

[sumpnz]

I'm going to hope for a 5-4 decision to throw out the mandate.  I think the rest will probably survive by a 5-4 vote.  Kennedy being the swing on both counts.

I think they'll also rule that severability is not a block to the rest of the legislation remaining standing after striking down the mandate.

This will make 0-care a toothless bill in most respects. 

[Waitone]

5-4 in favor of Obamacare.  Kagen will not recuse herself in spite of having worked for implementation of Obamacare before nomination to the court. 

Obamacare is to control of the individual as the Federal Reserve Act was to control of the financial system.  Government medical control will happen.

[HankB]

IANAL . . . but if SCOTUS issues a mixed ruling - nixing the purchase mandate but allowing severability by letting the rest stand - doesn't that pretty much negate the rule of law, since it was my understanding that severability was specifically NOT a part of the legislation?

(Oops, silly me . . . forgot myself by assuming that the law actually matters any more.)

[longeyes]

If Kagan doesn't recuse herself, who cares what SCOTUS rules?

As for the meat of the decision...any ruling that continues the abuse of the Interstate Commerce Act to give gov't plenary power over every action we take is a farce on the face.

[geronimotwo]

IANAL . . . but if SCOTUS issues a mixed ruling - nixing the purchase mandate but allowing severability by letting the rest stand - doesn't that pretty much negate the rule of law, since it was my understanding that severability was specifically NOT a part of the legislation?

(Oops, silly me . . . forgot myself by assuming that the law actually matters any more.)

that was my understanding.  in order to get added support while passing it, an addendum was put in that if any part of the health care bill was ruled unconstitutional, that the whole bill would be thrown out. 

i personnally think the challenge will be upheld,  and i'm not one of the "evil obamacare" signholders.

[Nick1911]

My opinion - we haven't reformed/ removed Social Security or the NFA.  This won't go away, either.

This.  We've got it now, it's not going away.  The next thing that changes it will strengthen and enhance it.

[brimic]

5-4 Obamacare goes down.

[Nightfall]

If Kagan doesn't recuse herself, who cares what SCOTUS rules?

This pretty much sums up my current feelings on the issue.

[Waitone]

http://spectator.org/archives/2011/11/15/supreme-court-agrees-to-hear-f

Good summary of the four questions the court will address.

[charby]

5-4 Obamacare goes down.

Since Kagen is sitting out, I'm thinking 5-3

[SADShooter]

Is she actually recusing herself? I haven't heard that.

[Waitone]

Since Kagen is sitting out, I'm thinking 5-3

Huh?  Not heard it.  Got a source?

Kagan is to Obamacare as Jamie Gorelick was to the 911 commission.  Steer the results in a predetermined direction.

[RocketMan]

Kagan is not recusing herself.
Obamacare is upheld, 5-4, by the usual suspects.

[kgbsquirrel]

Dumb question moment, but can't a Judge, even a SCOTUS Judge, get censured for failing to recuse themselves when necessary? If so, what is the process?

[sumpnz]

Dumb question moment, but can't a Judge, even a SCOTUS Judge, get censured for failing to recuse themselves when necessary? If so, what is the process?

AFAIK SCOTUS makes their own rules, or at least they only rule on whether they've followed the rules.  Read somewhere that included a USC citation that indicated she would be breaking the law by not recusing herself, but there's no way to enforce that.  Short, perhaps, of impeaching her, I don't know what could really be done.  And lets face it that impeachment ain't gonna happen.  Hell, it would be deserved even without the recusal issue (perjury in confirmation testimony), but it still would never happen.

For that matter, even if video evidence came out showing Stanley Ann squeezing baby Barak out under a sign that read "Nairobi General Hospital" along with video of him renouncing his US citizinship to the Indonesian/Pakistani government I seriously doubt impeachment proceedings against Obama would succeed.

[longeyes]

What will happen is the discrediting of the rule of law.  No small thing.

[brimic]

Since Kagen is sitting out, I'm thinking 5-3

A socialist following laws and ethics? I'll hhave what your smoking.

[longeyes]

Or ObamaCare, like ACORN, will proceed under a different name...?   We are talking about the socialists' victory flag here; to believe they are going to just let a "politically charged" SCOTUS decision--should that happen--end their project is naive.  They've been working on this for decades.

I believe that if Kagan does not recuse herself the Court is permanently tainted, which is also part of The Plan.  For SCOTUS to decide, by itself, on recusal rules and procedures is itself a cruel joke.  The Law should not be outside The Law.  This is not Kafka's America, not quite yet.