Speculators wouldn't buy oil futures (demand for oil futures drives up their price, and since commodity usage is driven by replacement rather than purchase price, this drives up current prices) if there wasn't a trend toward higher prices to follow. One buys futures if one thinks the price will increase (thereby locking in a delivery price and enabling a profit on the futures contract if the price increases, after which either the commodity or the contract can be sold). The trend is seen in this case as inexorable due to bth the fed policy, (enabled by the treasury policies) and rising demand with lower supply increases seen IN THE FUTURE. Since oil contracts can and are long term priced, increasing FUTURE production or even increasing the probability of future production through increased permitting, drilling, etc decreases the potential price increases, and results in lower demand for high (current price) futures. The net effect is a reduction in replacement cost, and a reduction in current product prices. This multi-level linkage is hinted at in that article (why monetary policy has an effect, as if then year dollars are worth less due to higher liquidity and base money, current dollar lock-in on a contract is easy profit from a hedge perspective) but rarely addressed in popular "blame someone" media.
Does "speculation" have an effect, of course, I say that directly, however, it's a very useful tool (for actual product users and sellers) to mitigate fluctuations, and as its based on PREDICTIONS of supply/demand/international politics and monEtary policy, it is easily influenced by the cabinet departments, which was my whole point.
Making a profit off "betting" that a commodity price will go up is not the cause...it is the effect. If, hypothetically, a new "Saudi level" oil resource was discovered, futures prices (and current product prices) would IMMEDIATELY drop, even if the actual supply impact were years away, simply because it would depress the demand for higher priced long term options, as it is likely the future supply/demand ratio would be increased,myielding a lower point.
