Undo Optimism?

[SteveT]

I've been reading here and posted on other similar sites analysis suggesting an inevitable "bloodbath" of Dems in 2010.

Looking at polls however, I see Obama's approval at ~ 47% - 47%, and Dems in Congress slightly ahead of Reps (although BOTH are hated to be sure).

Ergo, I'm wondering if all the bloodbath talk is just wishful thinking?  

[Boomhauer]

I am one of the few who has been saying that the Dems are NOT going to take a beating.

I predict that even if Dems loose some power, they will regain it before too long...

[Jamisjockey]

I've been reading here and posted on other similar sites analysis suggesting an evitable "bloodbath" of Dems in 2010.

Looking at polls however, I see Obama's approval at ~ 47% - 47%, and Dems in Congress slightly ahead of Reps (although BOTH are hated to be sure).

Ergo, I'm wondering if all the bloodbath talk is just wishful thinking? 

I don't.  The novelty wore off.  Obama was elected on a combination of the sheer novelty of voting for the first Black President, anti Bush sentiment, and then the standard Democratic base voters.  The novelty is gone, people have almost forgotten who Bush is, and the Democratic base is starting to fracture.  

[alex_trebek]

Being optimistic implies a belief that replacing dems with reps will help. Few people have forgotten reps' role in the recent past (and thanks to the dems and media, most overcredit reps role).

I think that most people know better than to blindly trust reps. By election time the HCR law will be old news, which was the main driving force to vote out dems.

Dems will lose seats, this frequently happens to the president's party in the midterm elections. I doubt it will be the bloodbath foxnews is predicting. I think that is attempting forced self-fullfilling prophecy.

Then again, I don't really care who wins or loses, because I don't believe it will matter. This view could be skewing my interpretation of the facts.


I will say that Bush is helping by keeping his mouth shut. I think he is intentionally doing so, hoping the focus will be on Obama. If only Cheney would follow suit.

[makattak]

Yes, I do think the Democrats have done everything to undo optimism.

As for our side, I seriously doubt there is undue optimism, I am rightfully afraid of what will happen even if we DO take back the house and senate.

[HankB]

I am rightfully afraid of what will happen even if we DO take back the house and senate. 

I'll go out on a limb and predict that in 2012, the Tea Party will be directing a fair portion of its ire at RINOs in the GOP.

[RocketMan]

I predict the GOP will take a few seats in the House, and maybe one or two in the Senate.  The GOP will not gain control of either house. 
Given that the economy is improving (or at least we are being told that it is), that will garner the Dems some credit that they can spend in the 2010 election cycle.
It will not be the 'bloodbath' that so many on the right have been predicting.

[Fjolnirsson]

I predict the GOP will take a few seats in the House, and maybe one or two in the Senate.  The GOP will not gain control of either house.  
Given that the economy is improving (or at least we are being told that it is), that will garner the Dems some credit that they can spend in the 2010 election cycle.
It will not be the 'bloodbath' that so many on the right have been predicting.

Pretty much how I feel about things. It seems to me as though the anger over Health Care has peaked, and people are settling back into routine, with day to day life taking precedence over affairs of government that we have no real control over. By the time the elections are here, people will be fat, dumb and happy once more. The Dems may lose a few seats here and there, but they will be filled by Republicans, who will then say they don't have enough seats to do anything about Health Care. Obama will keep his seat through a second term.

I could be wrong. I hope I am wrong. I hope the Tea Party anger and voter dissatisfaction wipes out every seat in congress, Republicans included, so that we have an entirely new group of people in D.C.. I hope Obama is sent packing in 2012, replaced by a young, Constitutionally minded challenger with fire in his/her belly, someone who will apply pressure to put things right in D.C.

I have learned never to underestimate the stupidity/complacency of voters. I believe our government will collapse under it's own weight in our lifetime, and if history can be relied upon, what replaces our Republic will be far worse than any of us can imagine.

Geez, that turned pretty grim, didn't it? Ah well, I call things as I see them. No reason to get down about it. all we can do is live our lives and provide for our families as best we can, so long as the train stays on the track.

[AJ Dual]

IMO, "approval"-ratings does not automatically translate into get off your butt and vote. RINO's are definitely a "problem" however the Tea Party movement is potentially good to act as an outside source to push both parties back to the right. My gut feeling is that 51% of the electorate knows the polish is off the apple, and has a general sense the Democrats/Obama are making things "worse" not better.

I think the Republicans will do better than the polling suggests due to the ferocity and drive of the backlash right now, but it will still probably fall well short of what's needed for a takeover. There's district and electoral math that's nearly insurmountable working against them.

OTOH, keep in mind NOBODY predicted how big the Republican landslide in '94 would be. It was a shock to both sides. And I think most would agree that people are even more fired up than they were after the first 1.75 years of the Clinton Administration. And some of the dissatisfaction with the Republicans in '06 and '08 was due to them having six years of full control, and not doing enough.

Unlike the Democrat double-think mantra that "people are actually mad we haven't passed health care yet", people actually were angry with the GOP for not making tax cuts permanent, "going nuclear" on the Fannie/Freddie/Mortgage reforms they'd been trying to pass, privatizing Social Security etc.

People tend not to punish their party for much more than one or two election cycles. Because the cutting off your nose to spite your face factor gets to be too much.

[209]

I hope we can keep the movement going.  However, I also know people have a very short attention span. They will forget some of the issues.  Hardly anyone still talks about the various bills passed for the "stimulus" and "bail-out" maneuvers foisted on us by the current crop down there in DC.

Right now, it's the healthcare bill.  In time (probably a few months from now), the outrage will diminish.  After all, I just bought a truck and I've had several people inquire why I bought a Ford (I've owned Chevys for years).  When I explained that not buying a Chevy was a political statement, they asked what I meant.  People have forgotten and moved on.  But there are some big issues on the block that will (again hopefully) cause people to become engaged. 

The cap "n trade bill comes to mind. 

Immigration Reform.   

Some new bill about regulating financial corporations which I haven't looked at yet.

Any new FCC regulations regarding the internet

And even the NAIS which hit the news as an aside in an article concerning Mexico turning away meat from the US. 

The issue of giving the DC Reps in the House a voting position.  That is already decided by the courts as unconstitutional. 

I'm seeing all of that come up in the news and I think it's all being used to passed a certain agenda.  Is it disinformation prompted by a certain group to get us going too many different ways?  Or am I overestimating their intelligence and capabilities and do I need a new hat?  After all, I have a new box of Reynold's Wrap in the drawer. 

There are so many issues coming up, I'd like to think the average American will continue to focus on them.  But maybe there are so many, we will become so diverse that we lose a voice and splinter into groups too small to achieve a change.

[makattak]

I hope we can keep the movement going.  However, I also know people have a very short attention span. They will forget some of the issues.  Hardly anyone still talks about the various bills passed for the "stimulus" and "bail-out" maneuvers foisted on us by the current crop down there in DC.

Right now, it's the healthcare bill.  In time (probably a few months from now), the outrage will diminish.  After all, I just bought a truck and I've had several people inquire why I bought a Ford (I've owned Chevys for years).  When I explained that not buying a Chevy was a political statement, they asked what I meant.  People have forgotten and moved on.  But there are some big issues on the block that will (again hopefully) cause people to become engaged. 

The cap "n trade bill comes to mind. 

Immigration Reform.   

Some new bill about regulating financial corporations which I haven't looked at yet.

Any new FCC regulations regarding the internet

And even the NAIS which hit the news as an aside in an article concerning Mexico turning away meat from the US. 

The issue of giving the DC Reps in the House a voting position.  That is already decided by the courts as unconstitutional. 

I'm seeing all of that come up in the news and I think it's all being used to passed a certain agenda.  Is it disinformation prompted by a certain group to get us going too many different ways?  Or am I overestimating their intelligence and capabilities and do I need a new hat?  After all, I have a new box of Reynold's Wrap in the drawer. 

There are so many issues coming up, I'd like to think the average American will continue to focus on them.  But maybe there are so many, we will become so diverse that we lose a voice and splinter into groups too small to achieve a change.

It's ok that people aren't worried about specific bills/laws right now.

Every one of those boils down to the same problem: Too much spending/too large a government.

People don't have to worry about each individual bill when the problem is simple:

$1,500,000,000,000 DEFICIT. Not spending that much, but spending that much MORE than we have.

1.5 TRILLION dollars more than we have. For all the Democrats attempts to pass things quickly so people will forget, they instead made the problem really simple.

We are spending roughly $5000 more than we have for every man woman and child in the United States.

Things like that don't require specific interest in what bill caused it because EVERYTHING the government is doing is causing it.

[MechAg94]

If the Democrats try to pass another 2000 page bill, any chance of this stuff being forgotten is gone.  IMO, they were talking up the health care bill and saying how great it was and the Republicans were warning of all this stuff buried in it.  Well, after it passed, all the stuff the Repubs said was buried in it was true plus a bunch more that keeps coming out.  That is a huge black eye for Democrats in the eyes of anyone who is paying attention.

Personally, I think a lot of independents voted for Obama because they thought he would be something different.  I don't think that group will vote for him again.

Also, I think Obama's job approval rating is lower than 47%.  I think that number is his support in a mock election against an unnamed Republican.  I could be wrong.  Congress' approval rating is much lower.

[Perd Hapley]

Yes, I do think the Democrats have done everything to undo optimism.

As for our side, I seriously doubt there is undue optimism, I am rightfully afraid of what will happen even if we DO take back the house and senate.

Thank you for saving me the time.   

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

You have to be careful which polls you pay attention to.  

Among honest polls (I prefer Rasmussen), Reps lead Dems in generic congressional polls by 10%.  Historically Dems tend to lead in these polls and Reps only need to get within spitting distance to do well in the actual elections.  Many more Reps than Dems turn out on election day.

I've never seen the Reps this far ahead in generic ballot polls.  This is huge.

Independents now favor Reps 2 to 1.  This is huge, too.  It was independents who gave the Presidency to Barry O, but they've now abandoned him.

Cite:  http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot

RealClearPolitics has the Reps picking up 8 seats in the Senate.

Some reports I've seen have the Reps picking up anywhere from 30 to 100 seats in the house.

Now, polls don't guarantee anything, and the election is still a long time away.  But all of the available evidence right now points ot a bloodbath for the Dems.  This has the potential to be a very good thing for our country if we're willing to use it to our advantage.

[Angel Eyes]

For what it's worth, our friends at CNN appear to be worried:

http://www.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/04/20/voter.government.anger/index.html?hpt=T2

According to a Pew Research Center poll released this week, based on polling conducted in March and April, a growing segment of the American public holds intense anti-government views, with those surveyed describing themselves as angry with the federal government.

The reason? A "perfect storm of conditions associated with distrust of government -- a dismal economy, an unhappy public, bitter partisan-based backlash, and epic discontent with Congress and elected officials," the report concluded.

More at the link.

[Waitone]

If Obama were to be smart he bask in the pre-iginition glow of his healthcare victory and lay low.  But nope, he's got more plans just as divisive as HC.  Amnesty, VAT, Cap and Trade, ad nauseum.  Outrage will continually be stoked through to the election.  Republicans will win; the only question is how big.  Dick Morris keeps telling readers the victory will be big.  Certainly control of the house is in the cards and it would not take much to take the senate also, says he.  I would love to get excited at the prospects of republicans taking control and maybe at some time in the past I would have.  Now days I just think we will exchange a ship of goons for barge full of buffoons.  Neither party shows signs of a conversion to belief in a constitutional government.

[makattak]

If Obama were to be smart he bask in the pre-iginition glow of his healthcare victory and lay low.  But nope, he's got more plans just as divisive as HC.  Amnesty, VAT, Cap and Trade, ad nauseum.  Outrage will continually be stoked through to the election.  Republicans will win; the only question is how big.  Dick Morris keeps telling readers the victory will be big.  Certainly control of the house is in the cards and it would not take much to take the senate also, says he.  I would love to get excited at the prospects of republicans taking control and maybe at some time in the past I would have.  Now days I just think we will exchange a ship of goons for barge full of buffoons.  Neither party shows signs of a conversion to belief in a constitutional government.

Here's a fun question: Who would have guessed financial regulatory reform would be divisive?

Democrats have done some amazing things to push it to the point that their "reform" isn't palatable to the Republicans.

And what's funny is they think they're going to change the public mood towards them with this issue! 

[Monkeyleg]

To the extent that the Democrats can frame the finance regulation as the little guy versus Wall Street, the Democrats win.

The Republicans need to point out without stop that the Democrats want to take over financial institutions and put bureaucrats in charge. They also need to keep hammering home the fact that the same crooks (Chris Dodd, etc) who helped create the mortgage disaster are now in charge of this one, and that there's been a ton of money flowing to the Democrats from the same companies who the Democrats now say they're going to "regulate."

This isn't consumer protection. It's a protection racket for the Democrats, and they'll make more money than the Mafia could have dreamed was possible.

[makattak]

To the extent that the Democrats can frame the finance regulation as the little guy versus Wall Street, the Democrats win.

The Republicans need to point out without stop that the Democrats want to take over financial institutions and put bureaucrats in charge. They also need to keep hammering home the fact that the same crooks (Chris Dodd, etc) who helped create the mortgage disaster are now in charge of this one, and that there's been a ton of money flowing to the Democrats from the same companies who the Democrats now say they're going to "regulate."

This isn't consumer protection. It's a protection racket for the Democrats, and they'll make more money than the Mafia could have dreamed was possible.

Existing firms (especially large ones) LOVE regulation. It insulates them from competition.

It's not "cracking down on Wall Street" any more than health care was "cracking down on Big Insurance". More regulation= more prizes for being the best at sucking up to Washington= rewarding cronies rather than innovation.

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

Existing firms (especially large ones) LOVE regulation. It insulates them from competition.

It's not "cracking down on Wall Street" any more than health care was "cracking down on Big Insurance". More regulation= more prizes for being the best at sucking up to Washington= rewarding cronies rather than innovation.

Obama's health care give FedGov the power to run all private insurance companies out of business.  The Wall St bill under consideration gives FedGov the power to destroy any financial company they like, almost arbitrarily.

I'm not sure it's accurate to say that neither bill cracks down on their respective industries.

[makattak]

Obama's health care give FedGov the power to run all private insurance companies out of business.  The Wall St bill under consideration gives FedGov the power to destroy any financial company they like, almost arbitrarily.

I'm not sure it's accurate to say that neither bill cracks down on their respective industries.

Anytime the government regulates something they have the power to put it out of business.

They also have the power to reward their favored companies. It's easier to get on the gravy train rather than to fight it.

[KD5NRH]

Existing firms (especially large ones) LOVE regulation. It insulates them from competition.

Exactly; look at pest control in Texas as an example.  If you want to open a pest control company, you've got to go work for an existing one for at least two years, and convince them to sponsor your attempt at the Certified Applicator test.  You've then got a year to get your business going so you can handle your own renewals.  Thus, no getting that part out of the way, going to college, gathering some business experience, then opening your business.  Effectively, you'd have to get any schooling and management experience you'll need later taken care of, then go spend two years in an entry level, low-pay job while your student loans go into default, and at the end of it, they can just lay you off rather than let you take the test.  Unlike most small businesses, you can't just go learn and/or get certified on one or two things, sell those services and expand as money becomes available.  You might be able to front the money and management experience, and hire an existing CA to handle the actual pest control part, if you have the capital available to do that in the first place.

Lots of other industries are similar.

[Perd Hapley]

This thread is kind of amusing now. More so, when you look at the original poster's prediction.    (He was recently shown the door.)

[Gowen]

Given that Harry Reid kept his seat, ignoring the fact that he picked his opponent, I do not have high hopes for 2012.  I can only hope we improve conservative holding and depose obama.

[MechAg94]

I think at this point, the Republican candidate would have to be really bad for Obama to win.  I think even Romney could beat him.  I doubt the Tea Party stuff will duplicate 2010, but they will still have an impact. 

That said, I really want to see some traction in the Senate.  There is a whole lot of nothing going on over there.