Armed Polite Society

Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: Pb on October 08, 2020, 02:16:01 PM

Title: Oct 1 Gallup Poll: Most Americans think Trump will win
Post by: Pb on October 08, 2020, 02:16:01 PM
Overall: Partisans think their own candidate will win, though it is overwhelming with Republicans.

A majority of independents think Trump will win.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/321347/trump-pre-debate-job-approval-highest-may.aspx

Let us hope they are right, cause I am afraid they aren't.
Title: Re: Oct 1 Gallup Poll: Most Americans think Trump will win
Post by: MechAg94 on October 08, 2020, 02:57:31 PM
Let us hope the Trump campaign acts like they need to catch up versus sitting back.
Title: Re: Oct 1 Gallup Poll: Most Americans think Trump will win
Post by: 230RN on October 08, 2020, 04:26:27 PM
Let us hope the Trump campaign acts like they need to catch up versus sitting back.

That's just one thing that worries me about the election --stay-at-home (or not mailing your ballot) complacency due to overconfidence.
Title: Re: Oct 1 Gallup Poll: Most Americans think Trump will win
Post by: K Frame on October 08, 2020, 05:09:37 PM
Let us hope the Trump campaign acts like they need to catch up versus sitting back.

Yeah.... I heard yesterday that the Trump campaign is cancelling ad spending in Ohio and one other swing state because....

Because....

Why was it Hillary's team canceled appearances and spending in Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016?

Oh, yeah, because they though they were winning...  :facepalm:
Title: Re: Oct 1 Gallup Poll: Most Americans think Trump will win
Post by: Ron on October 08, 2020, 05:11:10 PM
Yeah.... I heard yesterday that the Trump campaign is cancelling ad spending in Ohio and one other swing state because....

Because....

Why was it Hillary's team canceled appearances and spending in Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016?

Oh, yeah, because they though they were winning...  :facepalm:

Hopefully it's just a head fake.
Title: Re: Oct 1 Gallup Poll: Most Americans think Trump will win
Post by: Perd Hapley on October 08, 2020, 06:23:12 PM
Yeah.... I heard yesterday that the Trump campaign is cancelling ad spending in Ohio and one other swing state because....

Because....

Why was it Hillary's team canceled appearances and spending in Michigan and Wisconsin in 2016?

Oh, yeah, because they though they were winning...  :facepalm:

Presumably, it's because they feel the money is better spent elsewhere. And don't campaigns typically do their own polling, so they know where they stand in each state better than the general public does?
Title: Re: Oct 1 Gallup Poll: Most Americans think Trump will win
Post by: RocketMan on October 08, 2020, 06:36:58 PM
The Biden campaign has been doing much better than Trump at raising money for the last couple of months.  Of course, much of what Biden is raising is actually coming from BLM and possibly China via hidden sources.
Title: Re: Oct 1 Gallup Poll: Most Americans think Trump will win
Post by: Hawkmoon on October 08, 2020, 07:55:30 PM
Of course, much of what Biden is raising is actually coming from BLM and possibly China via hidden sources.

I'm not sure it matters too much where it's coming from. Money is money. Money buys ads -- and, in today's Yoo Ess of Ay money buys votes. Especially Democrat money.
Title: Re: Oct 1 Gallup Poll: Most Americans think Trump will win
Post by: Ben on October 08, 2020, 08:03:08 PM
The Biden campaign has been doing much better than Trump at raising money for the last couple of months.  Of course, much of what Biden is raising is actually coming from BLM and possibly China via hidden sources.

Biden has the gazilionaires of silicon valley and all their millionaire employees donating to him as well. Not to mention their social media manipulation at his beck and call. And that's on top of Hollywood and their propaganda machine.
Title: Re: Oct 1 Gallup Poll: Most Americans think Trump will win
Post by: WLJ on October 08, 2020, 08:14:38 PM
And that's on top of Hollywood and their propaganda machine.

And at the same time asking for a govt handout
Title: Re: Oct 1 Gallup Poll: Most Americans think Trump will win
Post by: DittoHead on October 09, 2020, 09:29:36 AM
don't campaigns typically do their own polling, so they know where they stand in each state better than the general public does?
Maybe some campaigns...
Quote from: https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/06/texas-biden-presidential-campaign/
Biden campaign to spend $6 million on Texas campaign ads, more than any Democratic presidential nominee in decades
Seems like wasted money to me.
Title: Re: Oct 1 Gallup Poll: Most Americans think Trump will win
Post by: Ben on October 09, 2020, 09:35:02 AM
This is what The Economist thinks, which sounds like a repeat of 2016. Even if Biden were to win, 342 electoral votes is ridiculous.

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
Title: Re: Oct 1 Gallup Poll: Most Americans think Trump will win
Post by: K Frame on October 09, 2020, 10:06:19 AM
Presumably, it's because they feel the money is better spent elsewhere. And don't campaigns typically do their own polling, so they know where they stand in each state better than the general public does?

Supposedly, and Hillary's people at the state level were telling her national campaign that the state polls were NOT matching the national polling, and they didn't listen.

Of course Trump's team, as functional and well oiled as it is, with such a stalwart and level-headed man in charge, would NEVER make the same kind of conceited, hubris-based mistake...  ;/
Title: Re: Oct 1 Gallup Poll: Most Americans think Trump will win
Post by: K Frame on October 09, 2020, 10:18:43 AM
This is what The Economist thinks, which sounds like a repeat of 2016. Even if Biden were to win, 342 electoral votes is ridiculous.

https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president


Did the Economist have a similar look at the 2016 Election?

I remember everyone in the national and international media assuring us that Trump was going to lose... BIG.

The NY Time's election tracker had a meter that started out showing Hillary with something like a 90% chance of being President... As the evening went on that meter started creeping towards Trump. I was STUNNED when it showed basically a 50/50 split, and by the time I went to bed it was showing Trump with a better than 80% chance of winning the Presidency.

And I wish I could find the video, but early in election night MSNBC's (I think) coverage had some simpering little pantywaist going over the projections. He started out with a comfortable win with Hillary and then started projecting his own hopes, dreams, and wishes onto the map... things like "with only a little change in turnout this way Hillary wins," and crap like that, and by the time he was done he had autoeroticized himself into something like 440 electoral votes for Hillary. I didn't see it on election night, I caught the Utoob the next day, and it was just hysterical.

Basically his entire premise was that Hillary can't lose, Trump can't win, we are the intelligencia and we have decreed it!

I wish I could have been a fly on the wall to see his reaction as the returns started coming in and states that he handily awarded to Hillary flipped to Trump.
Title: Re: Oct 1 Gallup Poll: Most Americans think Trump will win
Post by: RoadKingLarry on October 09, 2020, 12:19:27 PM
I'm really hoping for a repeat of this, not terribly optimistic but hoping.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrWzBg475Q8 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wrWzBg475Q8)


If Biden wins I'm going to start a "Impeach that bitch and her doddering old fool" campaign.