Time op-ed: Let's End Human Driving

[Balog]

http://time.com/3517110/end-human-driving/

I can certainly see the advantages, given how horrific human drivers are and the vast loss of life car wrecks inflict every year. I don't know that this is actually practical or desirable however.

[vaskidmark]

Making one car go from A to B is fairly easy - even when figuring in avoiding human drivers, poorly-timed stop lights, and possibly even road crashes.  All it relly takes is a "passenger" who is willing to go from A to B without deviation.

Making a lot of cars do that should be fairly easy - and the fewer cars with human drivers the easier it should be.

But most folks seem to want to deviate from A straight to B, and by the timme the car is reprogramed to stop and get a superbiggerthanlarge diet soda it will have passed the passenger's drive-thru of choice and have to do all sorts of rerouting.

The biggest concern I would have is about the security of the database.  License plate readers and cops operating illegal (well of course they are, what did you expect?) databases about cell phone calls http://www.wired.com/2014/10/virginia-police-secretively-stockpiling-private-phone-records/ I'm not sure I want to add real-time tracking/locating capabilities for them to play with.

Paranoid?  Me?   

stay safe.

[Ben]

Making one car go from A to B is fairly easy - even when figuring in avoiding human drivers, poorly-timed stop lights, and possibly even road crashes.  All it relly takes is a "passenger" who is willing to go from A to B without deviation.

Making a lot of cars do that should be fairly easy - and the fewer cars with human drivers the easier it should be.

But most folks seem to want to deviate from A straight to B, and by the timme the car is reprogramed to stop and get a superbiggerthanlarge diet soda it will have passed the passenger's drive-thru of choice and have to do all sorts of rerouting.

It will be interesting to see how routing and rerouting is done to be quick and efficient. As most of us know, our car GPS units, Google nav, etc. will pretty reliably get you where you want to go, but not always by the best route, especially for in-town driving. I've found no easy way to force any of my devices on the fly to follow a specific route that I want to take.

[Angel Eyes]

[Scout26]

The hard part will be getting people to leave their houses at the precise time to eliminate/reduce traffic congestion so it flows at close to highway speeds.  (Aka the Kennedy and Eisenhower Expressway Parking Lots and the Congo 500 on I-90/94.)

If they can do that then sign me up.  I always make a list of where I need to go before I get in the car, and route myself accordingly.   I hate going out for just one thing, and will normally hit at least three stops.  I frequently go three days or more without taking the car out of the garage. *



*As long as it's not Baseball or Football seasons, where he has practice almost every night.

[Strings]

This is going to go VERY similar to smartgun tech, I'm thinking: mandated for the masses, while our "betters" remain exempt

[KD5NRH]

Making one car go from A to B is fairly easy - even when figuring in avoiding human drivers, poorly-timed stop lights, and possibly even road crashes.  All it relly takes is a "passenger" who is willing to go from A to B without deviation.

The scary part is when it has to make real value judgments; truck cuts you off going 50 in a 75 zone, too close to brake by more than 10mph before impact, and your escape spot happens to be occupied by a pregnant nun and three small children, all carrying newborn kittens waiting to cross the highway: do you brake and hit the big hard truck at a relative speed of 15mph, probably bending your bumper, or do you slaughter the nice soft innocents?  Same situation, but instead of innocent pedestrians, now it's a couple of small but very solid concrete-filled steel posts that will total the car and possibly kill you.  How much real processing power does the car have, and who's programming its morals?

[vaskidmark]

The scary part is when it has to make real value judgments; truck cuts you off going 50 in a 75 zone, too close to brake by more than 10mph before impact, and your escape spot happens to be occupied by a pregnant nun and three small children, all carrying newborn kittens waiting to cross the highway: do you brake and hit the big hard truck at a relative speed of 15mph, probably bending your bumper, or do you slaughter the nice soft innocents?  Same situation, but instead of innocent pedestrians, now it's a couple of small but very solid concrete-filled steel posts that will total the car and possibly kill you.  How much real processing power does the car have, and who's programming its morals?

Not my worry any more - all blame goes to the computer and the company that operates it.

stay safe.

[Perd Hapley]

...a pregnant nun and three small children, all carrying newborn kittens waiting to cross the highway...

How many were going to St. Ives?

[Firethorn]

This is going to go VERY similar to smartgun tech, I'm thinking: mandated for the masses, while our "betters" remain exempt

Why?  They're the most likely to not be driving themselves to begin with!

[Balog]

Making one car go from A to B is fairly easy - even when figuring in avoiding human drivers, poorly-timed stop lights, and possibly even road crashes.  All it relly takes is a "passenger" who is willing to go from A to B without deviation.

Making a lot of cars do that should be fairly easy - and the fewer cars with human drivers the easier it should be.

But most folks seem to want to deviate from A straight to B, and by the timme the car is reprogramed to stop and get a superbiggerthanlarge diet soda it will have passed the passenger's drive-thru of choice and have to do all sorts of rerouting.

The biggest concern I would have is about the security of the database.  License plate readers and cops operating illegal (well of course they are, what did you expect?) databases about cell phone calls http://www.wired.com/2014/10/virginia-police-secretively-stockpiling-private-phone-records/ I'm not sure I want to add real-time tracking/locating capabilities for them to play with.

Paranoid?  Me?   

stay safe.

Don't they essentially already have real time tracking capability for everyone carrying a smart phone?

[T.O.M.]

Really mixed feelings about this.  I have an inherent distrust for computers when it comes to the safety of me and my family.  Too many variables that change moment to moment.  Too much of a need for instant iudgment.  Too many unpredictable things happen along the way, like the kid chasing a ball into the street.  That said, the part of me that comjutes 30-45 minutes daily also sees an extra hour plus of work, reading, or a good nap during the drive. 

I saw the Total Recall photos, but I was thinking more of the Demolition Man idea, where the driver has the option of manual driving or computer operated.  That would be more to my liking.

[bedlamite]

Really mixed feelings about this.  I have an inherent distrust for computers when it comes to the safety of me and my family.  Too many variables that change moment to moment.  Too much of a need for instant iudgment.  Too many unpredictable things happen along the way, like the kid chasing a ball into the street.  That said, the part of me that comjutes 30-45 minutes daily also sees an extra hour plus of work, reading, or a good nap during the drive. 

I saw the Total Recall photos, but I was thinking more of the Demolition Man idea, where the driver has the option of manual driving or computer operated.  That would be more to my liking.

Of course, now I'm picturing you in a mu-mu singing I'm an Oscar Meyer weiner.

[MechAg94]

Don't they essentially already have real time tracking capability for everyone carrying a smart phone?

If so, they never have to do another no-knock warrant to find a suspect.  Just track his phone and catch him when he is on the move.

[KD5NRH]

I saw the Total Recall photos, but I was thinking more of the Demolition Man idea, where the driver has the option of manual driving or computer operated.  That would be more to my liking.

Problem is, they'd most likely put the liability back on you by saying it's your responsibility to take over if something goes wrong.  That means you still have to spend the whole drive awake and looking out the windshield, just not doing anything that might help you stay awake.

[Tallpine]

I've seen how GPS routes people out here in our neighborhood down some 1880 wagon road 

[KD5NRH]

I've seen how GPS routes people out here in our neighborhood down some 1880 wagon road

I can think of at least two roads here in my town of 17,000 people that don't exist, and haven't existed in any historic maps I've been able to find, but were on Google and a couple of GPS units that I tried.  Google has since removed them, but it took a while.

[K Frame]

But what happens when the robots rise up and VIKI that we have to be saved from ourselves, even if it means that the robots violate the three laws to do so?

THE GODDAMN ROBOTS, JOHN!

[TommyGunn]

Skynet or T-tops ...

[griz]

I'm all for it when it becomes practical, but they've got a long way to go.  More than 10 years IMHO.  On the way home today I will go through an area that has been under construction for a few months.  For a stretch of road about two miles long, between Sunday and Monday the lanes may well be shifted over two feet to the right, and then by Thursday you have to do an S turn 20 feet to the left to follow the road.  The lane markings are temporary at best, and often have seams between old and new pavement in the lane itself.  Maybe today's autopilots can figure that out, but I don't have faith in them yet.  Combine that with stopping for gas, occasional errors between addresses and GPS coords, parking lots, etc, and I think we'll have steering wheels for a while yet.

[lupinus]

Call me when they can at least engineer an ignition switch...

[MechAg94]

What is the chance of these auto-drive systems getting hacked?


I can just see the plot for Die Hard XII or maybe Speed 8.  Hacker terrorists (white, greedy Americans of course) have hacked the auto drive systems of millions of drivers across the country and are threatening to cause them all to crash. 

[Strings]

>Why?  They're the most likely to not be driving themselves to begin with!<

Because it's good for thee but not for me?

>I can just see the plot for Die Hard XII or maybe Speed 8.  Hacker terrorists (white, greedy Americans of course) have hacked the auto drive systems of millions of drivers across the country and are threatening to cause them all to crash.  <

"Better" plot: "ugly hacker finds the codes for Hottie McHotpants, and hacks her car to drive to a secluded location to rape/murder/subject her to Star Trek reruns"...

[Tallpine]

Call me when they can at least engineer an ignition switch...

You got that right 

[drewtam]

I suspect that as computer driving takes over, there is less need to own any of the "appliance" vehicles, for example camry, metro, cavalier, accord, etc. It will be much cheaper on a total owning and operating cost to order up the computer driven taxi as needed. No car = no taxes, no financing, no insurance, no tickets. These fixed costs get distributed to hundreds of passengers per day, which maximizes the capital utilization. The computer taxi companies will want to buy fuel efficient reliable appliance cars, either hybrid or all electric. Since the passenger no longer "owns" the vehicle, there will no longer be the psychological association of the vehicle being a fashion and personal statement.
 
People will continue to purchase for themselves the specialty vehicles: trucks, sportscars, vans for road trips, and expensive luxury cars to show off wealth doesn't need to save money using cheap computer driven taxis. We might now be living in the golden age of sedan design, power (V6 Camry makes 268hp!) and variability. But as that gives way to computer driven taxis that cost a couple bucks per trip across town (right to your CC, Google Wallet, or Bitcoin Wallet) the specialty vehicles will get more extravagant. Bigger more luxurious trucks with bigger engines and more design choices, more musclecars with crazier performance, and more bling to the luxury sedan.