Random thought re .22lr

[Balog]

I saw today that CCI can crank out 3 million rounds of .22 per day. One of the other large makers can do somewhere around 4.5million per day. Let's say that on average, 10,000,000 rounds of .22 are produced each and every day. Rounding down a little for equipment breakage, switching lines etc lets call that 3,600,000,000 per year. That's the supply. Sounds like a lot, right?

It's estimated there are 80 million gun owners in America. I think that number is low, but let's use it here. .22 is one of the most popular and common rounds, and it seems like most everyone has a gun that eats it even if they're only peripherally involved with shooting. Let's then say a quarter of all gun owners want some .22, and let's say that they want a couple brick's worth every year.  I think those numbers are low both in how many folks want it and how much they want but taking them for the same of argument. Those very conservative numbers give us a yearly demand of 20,000,000,000. At current production levels that's over 5 years worth of production.

[Azrael256]

So... they only produce 36 days of the year?   

[Balog]

Bah, dropped a zero. That's what I get for trying to multi task while on cold medicine. Corrected now.

[RoadKingLarry]

Is there any explanation of the shortage near total absence of .22lr ammo other than pathetic suck navel jackwagons, in collusion with their fellow pathetic suck navel jackwagon retailer butt buddies buying it up as fast at it hits the retail outlets?

[AJ Dual]

Is there any explanation of the shortage near total absence of .22lr ammo other than pathetic suck navel jackwagons, in collusion with their fellow pathetic suck navel jackwagon retailer butt buddies buying it up as fast at it hits the retail outlets?

That, and all the people who buy ammo on an as-needed basis, which in normal times describes the majority of shooters and gun owners, who for the past year plus can't find the ammo they want, and as such are buying all they can as well whenever they do see it.

Eventually those shooters will reach saturation and not buy any. That day, the .22LR bricks will stay on the shelf, the next person will see it, and relax a little bit.

The two problem areas I see are this:

1. The neckbeards/"navel jackwagons" who poach all the .22LR to try and speculate on it, at some point they're probably going to hold onto it in unrealistic/irrational hopes of selling it at a profit over what they bought it at, and as such, their stockpiles might just stay out of circulation forever. That'll create a long-term dip in supply that'll take awhile to level out.

2. The ammo panic converting more "buy it as I need it shooters" into "stock it deep" shooters.

[Balog]

That, and all the people who buy ammo on an as-needed basis, which in normal times describes the majority of shooters and gun owners, who for the past year plus can't find the ammo they want, and as such are buying all they can as well whenever they do see it.

Eventually those shooters will reach saturation and not buy any. That day, the .22LR bricks will stay on the shelf, the next person will see it, and relax a little bit.

Given production limitations won't "that day" be several years in the future? 

[Boomhauer]

I dont think it will take 5 years to catch up but at least another year before we see consistent availability...

I think the original projections for the .22 shortage recovery was 6 months after Dec 2012. It has now been 13 months. and we are still severely short.

To a lesser extent, same goes for 9mm.

5.56 is back completely. I can also lay hands on .45 pretty consistently. I ended up buying a .45 last year and now have more .45 ammo on hand than I do 9mm.

[French G.]

5.56 looks now like that giant wake coming up behind your boat when you suddenly kill the motor. Local walmart consistently has 5-6K in stock where before they might have 1K if you totaled up all the random boxes.

[RoadKingLarry]

I'm seeing bulk packs of 5.56 at wally world. Cute little od green plastic "ammo cans" .
I'm also seeing new production real ammo cans in a few places. Running $20 cor the piles I've seen.

[lupinus]

5.56 current issue isn't availability right now, it's price. Excluding steel cased ammo, and a few deals here and there, most plinking stuff locally is running around 50 cents a round. It's trending down but still more than I wanna be paying.

[AZRedhawk44]

5.56 current issue isn't availability right now, it's price. Excluding steel cased ammo, and a few deals here and there, most plinking stuff locally is running around 50 cents a round. It's trending down but still more than I wanna be paying.

^^ This.

$0.50 is .308 price, not .223 price.

[geronimotwo]

our local wally world had quite a bit of rifle and pistol ammo back on the shelves including a selection of 9mm, 40sw, and .45.  unfortunatly .22 is still on their "sell out immedietly" list, although i did happen across a bulk pack last month or so.  still, the shelves carrying more than dust is a good sign!

[AJ Dual]

Given production limitations won't "that day" be several years in the future? 

Could be. On the other hand, despite the fact they're newly minted ammo hoarders, the majority of them aren't shooting every day or every week, and they'll realize they haven't gone through even that first brick of 500 they did finally manage to score, and then will calm down.

[charby]

^^ This.

$0.50 is .308 price, not .223 price.

Local Wal-Mart is $10.39 for a 20 rd pack  of Tula .223, that is .50 a round.

Just got an email from Natchez, Lake City Ammo on sale for .42 a round.

[AJ Dual]

If I see $.39 per round for brass 5.56 or better, I'm going to call it good and buy. 1.5-2 years of inflation has passed and I don't think it'll ever see the basement again.

[MechAg94]

Wideners had an email out selling IMI Israeli M193 ammo for $508 per 1200 which is about 42 cents per round.  The M855 was a few cents more.  They had IMI 9mm also.

I am waiting on finances and prices for 9mm and 45.  I'd like to get at least a case of each eventually as rainy day stock.  Still recovering from buy AR stuff late last year.

[MechAg94]

As far as .22 LR, I just look at my own situation.  I am still sitting on 4K or 5K rounds.  I luckily bought a couple bricks of Federal HV Match before the crash to feed my re-barrels 10/22.  However, if I see a few bricks available, I am likely to buy them.  At the very least, my brother's both have kids learning to shoot and use more .22 LR than I do.  I have gifted them 3 or 4 bricks in the last year or so as part of birthday/Christmas gifts.

Now, if I am inclinded to keep buying, I am sure all the non-ammo hoarders will buy as well.  I know at least one co-worker who used to buy ammo as he used it, but has since stocked up, sometimes at high prices.

[roo_ster]

I have a hard time keeping my kids in .22LR.  Even with single-shot Cricketts, they can go through 50 round boxes right quick.  Especially now since I got my daughter her own Crickett and cut the stock to fit.  Most the .22LR I find locally is unplated crap re-bagged from bulk packs that lead the Crikett bbls something fierce. 

My son wants to shoot the 10/22 and sometimes I let him, but limit him to 3 rounds in the mag.

Does anyone know a a near-silent air rifle of decent accuracy sized to fit kids?  Pellet or BB.  I am thinking of using my garage as an air rifle range to get the kids more trigger time.  I would prefer a break-bbl or single pump target-type air rifle. 

[geronimotwo]

I have a hard time keeping my kids in .22LR.  Even with single-shot Cricketts, they can go through 50 round boxes right quick.  Especially now since I got my daughter her own Crickett and cut the stock to fit.  Most the .22LR I find locally is unplated crap re-bagged from bulk packs that lead the Crikett bbls something fierce. 

My son wants to shoot the 10/22 and sometimes I let him, but limit him to 3 rounds in the mag.

Does anyone know a a near-silent air rifle of decent accuracy sized to fit kids?  Pellet or BB.  I am thinking of using my garage as an air rifle range to get the kids more trigger time.  I would prefer a break-bbl or single pump target-type air rifle. 

rifle? pistol? price point? the daisy champion 99 was very accurate with bb's. the new model that uses the same 50 shot spring load technology is their pump model.  http://www.daisy.com/node/48

otherwise, they claim this avanti single shot is the most accurate bb gun in the world   http://www.daisy.com/node/106

for more accuracy i think you're going to pellets and pump.

[Balog]

This gun is a single shot, muzzle-loader,

I had no idea they even made muzzle loading BB guns.

[Gewehr98]

I'd like to hear more about this rimfire ammo leading up the rifle's barrel.

Sounds like the wax lube has been removed. Plain lubed rimfire is basically all I shoot in my guns, mostly target grade. I don't buy or used jacketed/plated, and have never experienced leading. Hell, I don't even clean, save for the chambers and muzzle crowns with a Q-Tip soaked in Ed's Red. Cleaning the bore removes the layer of forcing me to take fouling shots before shooting for groups/score again.

[roo_ster]

rifle? pistol? price point? the daisy champion 99 was very accurate with bb's. the new model that uses the same 50 shot spring load technology is their pump model.  http://www.daisy.com/node/48

otherwise, they claim this avanti single shot is the most accurate bb gun in the world   http://www.daisy.com/node/106

for more accuracy i think you're going to pellets and pump.

Rifle. 

Pellets are OK.

$100 or so.  The Crickett's cost ~$150 each. 

That Avanti looks good and I can cut the stock down.

This guy:
http://www.pyramydair.com/s/m/IZH_61_multi_shot_air_rifle/76#Specifications
also looks good and I can slap an aperture on the 11mm dovetail.

Hmm,single shot version, only with aperture sight:
http://www.pyramydair.com/s/m/IZH_60_Target_Pro_Air_Rifle/2894
I think I just found the ticket, even if it is a little bit more spendy at $150.

[roo_ster]

I'd like to hear more about this rimfire ammo leading up the rifle's barrel.

Sounds like the wax lube has been removed. Plain lubed rimfire is basically all I shoot in my guns, mostly target grade. I don't buy or used jacketed/plated, and have never experienced leading. Hell, I don't even clean, save for the chambers and muzzle crowns with a Q-Tip soaked in Ed's Red. Cleaning the bore removes the layer of forcing me to take fouling shots before shooting for groups/score again.

Surprised the shinola out of me.  Spent a goodly amount of time getting after it with a bronze brush, sliver by sliver.  It was a little ways past the chamber.

[HankB]

. . . the daisy champion 99 was very accurate with bb's. the new model that uses the same 50 shot spring load technology is their pump model.  http://www.daisy.com/node/48 . . .

That model was my first BB gun, which I got at the ripe old age of 4. Shot it (with Dad) a LOT in the backyard as I was growing up . . .

[geronimotwo]

That model was my first BB gun, which I got at the ripe old age of 4. Shot it (with Dad) a LOT in the backyard as I was growing up . . .

ditto, although I think I was 8ish.