Rand Paul's surge in Kentucky

[MicroBalrog]

Rand Paul's surge in Kentucky

Kentucky could be the next state to host a race where the GOP's grassroots rebels against the party establishment.

Rand Paul, the son of former presidential candidate Ron Paul, has pulled into the lead in the Kentucky Senate race in a new SurveyUSA poll, ahead of the establishment favorite, Secretary of State Trey Grayson.

Paul now leads Grayson by three points, 35 to 32 percent, the first time he’s led any poll in the Kentucky race so far. It’s not the first sign that Paul stands a credible chance at an upset: Paul raised over $1 million in the last fundraising quarter, significantly more than Grayson’s haul.

Grayson has been supported by Republican Senate leadership in Washington -- Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and NRSC chairman John Cornyn headlined a fundraiser for his campaign in September.

"Kentuckians know we can't just lie down and let our government steamroll over us and that's why we are supporting Rand Paul in greater numbers,” said Paul campaign manager David Adams. “Rand's credibility on the issues is very solid and his campaign will only get stronger as he becomes better known.”

The SurveyUSA poll also contained a surprising finding in the Democratic primary: lieutenant governor Daniel Mongiardo leads Attorney General Jack Conway by 11 points, 39 to 28 percent.

Micro Sez:

Senator Paul.

This sounds good.

[makattak]

I'm uncertain as to Mr. Rand Paul's positions, but if I recall correctly, he's somewhat less crazy than his father.

And, in the case of one out of 100 Senators, some foolish extremism biased towards liberty might be helpful. It might at least offset the wackos on the other side.

[MicroBalrog]

I'm uncertain as to Mr. Rand Paul's positions, but if I recall correctly, he's somewhat less crazy than his father.

*facepalms*

With the possible exception of his stance on foreign policy, I have never regarded RP as too crazy. Frankly, I find people like Irvig Kristol FAR scarier.

And as for foolish extremism towards liberty, I think we all know that it is no vice.

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

has rand got handlers to shoo away the lunatic fringe?  tell em there's someone selling great bud cheap in massachussets or something

[roo_ster]

And as for foolish extremism towards liberty, I think we all know that it is no vice.

THAT Barry would have made a better POTUS than the Barry we eventually got.

has rand got handlers to shoo away the lunatic fringe?  tell em there's someone selling great bud cheap in massachussets or something

Good idea. 

[MicroBalrog]

has rand got handlers to shoo away the lunatic fringe?  tell em there's someone selling great bud cheap in massachussets or something

I *am* the lunatic fringe.

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

your point?

[Gewehr98]

*am* the lunatic fringe.

Safely contained in Israel, no less...

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

the thing that makes paul seem nutty is his entourage. somehow he needs to distance himself   or clean them up   and one is a nonstarter

[MicroBalrog]

Safely contained in Israel, no less...

Don't bet on that.

Or rather, consider this: Why should I agree with the notion that people who share my exact views (and are often similar to me in many aspects other than the detail of my citizenship) should be shooed away from participation in the political process? In a few years I will hopefully be a citizen too. Should I assume the same attitude towards me, personally? Does nothing strike you as wrong here?

[roo_ster]

MB:

If you want to win an election from an electorate larger than your drinking buddies, you need to come across as non-scary and non-goofy.

It helps to keep the Wookiee-wardrobe brigade at arms length to accomplish this.

For instance, BHO kept Bill Ayers at a distance during the campaign and Ayers was wise enough to go along with it.

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

at the risk of channeling maned wolf have you ever had the experience, as opposed to pleasure of being at a gathering of the faithful unleashed?

[MicroBalrog]

at the risk of channeling maned wolf have you ever had the experience, as opposed to pleasure of being at a gathering of the faithful unleashed?

I have been active at a variety of political causes both radical and moderate. I do make a point to go out, meet party members and candidates throughout the spectrum, attend protests (those I agree with - with a placard, those I don't - with a camera). I've seen worse things than 'the faithful unleashed',

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

so have i but we called it a riot and they weren't representing a viable political candidate. the thing that most chased me away from paul was the faithful

[MicroBalrog]

so have i but we called it a riot and they weren't representing a viable political candidate. the thing that most chased me away from paul was the faithful

Sadly this is not only his loss.

[Perd Hapley]

Sadly this is not only his loss.

 


He wouldn't have won, regardless. 

[MicroBalrog]

He wouldn't have won, regardless. 

I fail to see your point.

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

With the possible exception of his stance on foreign policy, I have never regarded RP as too crazy. Frankly, I find people like Irvig Kristol FAR scarier.

And as for foolish extremism towards liberty, I think we all know that it is no vice.

Ron Paul comes off as several fries short of a happy meal, and his frenzied cult-like followers are quite alarming.  Kristol, on the other hand, is harmless.  This is something you Paulians must come to understand if you wish to get anywhere.

You may agree with Paul's policies and disagree with Kristol's, but that's a different thing entirely from either man being "scary".

Now, it is true that wanting liberty is no vice.  However, crazy, foolish, extremist behaviors are often a very big problem, a fact frequently demonstrated by the Paulian fanatics.

[MicroBalrog]

Kristol is quite harmful to the extent that he and his ilk advocate censorship, support the status quo, and do whatever other things they do. If he's politically effective, that makes him more harmful.

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

I would tend to agree with you that Kristol's policies can be harmful.

Yet that's not the same as scaring the electorate.  Unless and until the Paulians understand this distinction, they're bound to remain marginalized.

Perhaps a better example is Barry Obama.  That man is extremely dangerous, yet he's one of the most likable and least scary politicians we've seen in a while.  It is no coincidence that Barry is President and Paul is a mostly irrelevant Congressman.

[MicroBalrog]

I feel you don't understand my major point.

Historically, US elections operate on the principle of coalition-building. Where a European politician builds his coalition AFTER he wins the election, an American candidate builds the coalition BEFORE the election.

In a coalition you need to have both the members of the moderate and the radical groups placated to some extent. THe moderates are more plentiful, but radicals are more likely to turn out and volunteer, vote, etc. Nowhere is this more obvious than in a campaign like Rand Paul's, where a large proportion of the funding comes from radicals.

While it is necessary for a candidate to moderate his message (something I think Paul Junior is doing with some success), if a candidate, especially one like Paul Junior, deliberately snubs his radical base to the point that they leave, he may encounter other problems. Do you think Obama would have won without the support of the Kos Kids?

There's always a Scylla and a Charybdis to be bested.

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

Do you think Obama would have won without the support of the Kos Kids?

Yes.

I will simply say that it's difficult to convince ordinary, sensible people to join a coalition full of wookie suits.  It is difficult to convince ordinary, sensible people to get behind leaders who seem nutty.

Barry O's image and demeanor carried him much, much farther than the DUers ever could have.  His appearance, his skin color and other elements, carried him far farther than the scary Kos types could have.

Barry won because he was able to present an image of what most voters wanted in their president.  He did it by being utterly, totally, non-scary.

[MicroBalrog]

Here's the problem:

To win, Rand Paul needs to conceal guys like me from the general public (forget for now I personally am not an American citizen - I guarantee you for every MicroBalrog abroad you'll find a dozen guys like him in America), WITHOUT making it appear to said guys that he's betrayed us, or he'll have no money and no volunteer support.

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

I suppose you are right in this case.  

Ron Paul and the Paulians are generally so far from the mainstream that they cannot be fully transparent without alarming the mainstream.  A certain amount of duplicity is needed.

Most conservatives would be best off simply being honest.  Conservatism generally vibes well with average people, as long as it doesn't come of as fanatical or extreme.

Moderate liberals can often do the same thing.  Joe Lieberman is a good example.  Lieberman dissed the extremists, the extremeists turned on Lieberman, and Lieberman turned around and soundly trounced the extremists.  (Note that Lieberman is not a scary man.)

Barry O and his fellow Marxists are a lot like Paul in this regard.  They're so far from the mainstream that they needed to hide their true selves to win.  
They pulled of the duplicity thing with exceptional skill, and the results are impressive.

[MechAg94]

IMO, Ron Paul's biggest fault is his refusal to pick his battles better.  There are probably hundreds of issues Ron Paul could have picked that people would hear and say "yeah, that makes sense," but abolishing the Fed or going on a gold standard aren't them.  He is likely right, but that is a topic way too big for most voters.  To me, there are lots of things he could champion that are worth doing and wouldn't scare people.  If he could have picked 5 or so sensible issues to focus on, he could get a lot more traction.