I still don't understand why you think this is likely to happen.
Quote the whole paragraph:
If Trump won and conducted a conservative government, it would validate the movement. If Trump won and turned left, it would inspire an insurgency like Ronald Reagan’s in 1976, when the Ford-Rockefeller-Kissinger administration moved too far toward detente.
Further on:
If Trump ran and lost, the conservative movement would have President Clinton to unite and rally the troops against.
One recalls Barry Goldwater’s historic wipeout in 1964. But, in 1966, Republicans made the greatest gains in a generation, and went on to win the presidency for 20 of the next 24 years.
Undeniably, a Trump presidency would mean an end to the Bush and establishment policies on trade, immigration and intervention.
But those policies have already been repudiated in the primaries, as they have proven to be transparent failures for America.
I have made calculations/estimations for Trump, Cruz, Clinton, and Sanders on various issues and thought out a few moves ahead of the immediate contest. The decision tree and probabilities I assign push me toward a vote for Trump, which I did at 0715 this fine morning.
If you define likely as "more than 0.50 probability" then no, I do not think Trump will likely run a conservative gov't. Cruz's probability is also less than 0.50. We, the American Nation, are not in a position to demand 50% chance of success. Hoping for such favorable odds is delusional. I recall the Dr Mann line in The Martian:
Cooper: Dr. Mann there's a 50/50 chance your gonna kill yourself.
Dr. Mann: Those are the best odds I've had in years.
The Trump candidacy has resulted in the best odds we've had in decades.
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Cruz's filing as the lead for the states in Heller ought to be enough for anybody IMO.
(shrug)
Trump's plan to halt immigration and deport illegals ought to be enough for anybody, IMO.
(shrug)
Because RKBA won't last long in a majority third-world immigrant Uh-merica. The National Question trumps all.
People are pissed... so pissed they don't care about Trump's negatives. In the broad sense, it's the Democrat's/Left's fault for the overall slide of America to this point. In the narrow sense, it's the GOP's fault for at least not fighting hard enough, even if it was only to be where we are now anyway.
Getting tired of the whole, "The blind fool Trump supporters are angry, but
I am making decisions based on logic & principle." Hooey. For my own part it was a rather grim calculation, as it has been for many others. And for those who have made their decision based 100% over the national question, love of country, and anger at the worst ruling class America has ever had--good for them. We could use more of such sentiment. For such sentiment is what real cultural change is made of.
GOP, outside the base,
is the modern, progressive left. They, like many marxist front organizations, put on a mask for their base (Boob Bait for Bubba) and then go about their open borders, "free" trade, cultural marxism, and whatever else their "fiscally conservative, socially liberal" donors tell them they want.
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The polls here in Oklahoma have 30% or so of the likely D voters undecided. They are saying that the party is leaning too left and needs to move right.
More of a reason I see unfortunately Trump as President. He will pull the R votes and then all the D's that say the party needs to move right.
Ayup. IOW, the white working class folks who the Democrats love to hate on.
What we are seeing could be described as a re-awakening/echo of Jacksonian Democracy. Now, Jacksonian Democracy is inferior (IMO) to the loose confederation under the Articles of Confederation and even the subsequent mercantile republic under the COTUS. But we have not had a republic since the election of Lincoln. Heck, we now have an authoritarian American Empire, with a polyglot population (instead of a true nation-state) with imperial tentacles draping all over the world, more or less lightly. Compared to
that, a little Jacksonian Democracy would be an improvement.
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What you trumpkins don't understand is that trump can't win the general election. A lot of people see him as the *expletive deleted*ck you candidate and blindly follow him. The rest of us conservatives see him for what he really is and will not 'hold our noses and vote for him' but more likely vote for someone else as a *expletive deleted*ck you to the *expletive deleted*ck you candidate's supporters.
Looking at the various polls, Trump is (as of this moment) the most likely candidate to win the general election. Obviously, this can change between now & November, but there you are. For every doctrinaire libertarian he loses and every butthurt Cruz boot-licker who pouts and stays home or votes Utopitarian, Trump is bringing in 1.x or more disaffected Democrats, GOP base voters who sat out Romney & McCain, or previous non-voters.
I was not sure of the "Trump is expanding the voter base" phenomenon until I saw the krayzee numbers early voting with my own eyes. And then this morning, when my wife and I got in line to vote in the GOP primary 10 minutes before the polls opened, but there were already 15 voters ahead of us. Most times wife and I are first or no farther down than top 5. And those 15 voters ahead of us were quite chipper, unlike many Cruz supporters lately. Not hard to conjure who they were voting for at the top of the ballot. Oh, there was no line waiting to vote in the Democrat primary.
