Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: Ron on April 28, 2012, 07:48:17 PM
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Take a good look at the last decade. The US only managed 1.7% growth in the biggest housing boom in history followed by the biggest multi-trillion dollar global stimulus effort in world history.
http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/mikeshedlock/2012/04/28/gdp_miss_far_bigger_than_announced_real_gdp_is_0_using_more_reasonable_deflator/page/2
What he says tracks more accurately with my observations and experience. Does Romney offer anything to turn this around?
While slumming at Townhall I also read this article that discussed the debasement of the Roman currency over time.
http://finance.townhall.com/columnists/jerrybowyer/2012/04/28/glenn_beck_national_decline_and_the_story_of_the_roman_empire
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Romney might slow it down but the die is cast. It's just a matter of how soon and how hard.
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It is probably going to take about two presidential terms to really get the US finances in order or at least pointed towards "go". One of the things that troubled me about Romney was making "small" changes because I suspect he believes he won't get elected otherwise. Ultimately, the economy has to grow to generate the tax collections necessary to pay the bills along with pretty significant cuts in spending. Obama is not the answer, but with about 50% of "tax payers" not paying any taxes, it will be very hard to have anyone other than Obama.
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The articles are pretty decent.
One thing to consider is that everything happens at a faster pace nowadays. Rome had a few hundred years after its Republic was debased. We've had 100 years of Progressivism. Does anyone think we can weather 100 more years headed in the same direction?
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Obama = LE raids on gun owners and concentration camps.
Romney = raising retirement to 70 and an improved economy in 8 yrs if we can keep electing Rand Paul and the like for 12 yrs.
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Obama = LE raids on gun owners and concentration camps.
As much as I think he'd want to, I seriously doubt he'll ever have the political capital. Even if he wins again, it's likely congress will be even more Republican this time around, and he can't do anything like that without their help.
Romney = raising retirement to 70 and an improved economy in 8 yrs if we can keep electing Rand Paul and the like for 12 yrs.
This has almost as much chance of happening as Obama deciding that capitalism is good. At best, Romney will slow things down. He doesn't seem inclined to actually put the brakes on anything.
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The articles are pretty decent.
One thing to consider is that everything happens at a faster pace nowadays. Rome had a few hundred years after its Republic was debased. We've had 100 years of Progressivism. Does anyone think we can weather 100 more years headed in the same direction?
No, but America is not headed in the same direction.
And anyway I expect the [peaceful] revolution to occur long before that.
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I don't like the way GDP is calculated as government deficit spending is counted as a positive.
Currently GDP = consumption + investment + government spending + (exports - imports)
Since government spending has to come from taxes or deficits, the government part should be:
(government spending - annualized net present value of government debt and liabilities)
Right now only current debt service is counted as a negative...so artificially low interest rates and massive future promises (unfunded liabilities) used to "stimulate" increase the GDP when in fact, since that money has to come from somewhere, it should be adjusted downward for deficit spending.
For instance, our annual deficits have been around 8-10% GDP, compared to about 5-6% in say 2007-2008. That increase in spending "looks" like an increasing in GDP...however, as the NPV of those deficits is greater than their current cash price, that means our actual long-term (accrual method) GDP has actually been negative.
The effect is like saying your net income is your income after taxes PLUS the value of any new loans, minus your current debt service.
So if you have $100k of net income, and take out a $50k car loan that costs you $1k/mo, does that mean your personal GDP is $138k for the year? No.
A consumption plus investment GDP, while useful for describing the "size" of an economy is useless for determining the "standard of living" of a country when thinking beyond the immediate.
Extreme point:
Let's say your net income was $100k, and you used that to take out a loan of $400k (5yr loan).
Well, you could consume $400k in "stuff" this year, but your loan payments would be $100k a year...meaning your consumption for the next 4 more years is zero. So your long term average is $80k per year.
So while it appeared your personal economy was bigger this year, it was actually smaller, as you shifted future spending forward to today, at a net loss.
The true wealth of a country cannot be increased by indiscriminate borrowing to increase consumption, any more than you can borrow and spend (consumption, not investment) yourself wealthy.
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Obama = LE raids on gun owners and concentration camps.
Romney = raising retirement to 70 and an improved economy in 8 yrs if we can keep electing Rand Paul and the like for 12 yrs.
Truth land is somewhere in the middle.
Romney won't turn jack around.
A fiscially minded Congress and Senate that doesn't give two craps about being reelected will.
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Obama = LE raids on gun owners and concentration camps.
Oh, I remember how this board was just filled with similar comments four years ago. JBT doing midnight raids and hauling off people to the FEMA re-education camps. Odd how that has not seemed to happen. Now cue the comments how it will happen during a second term. [tinfoil]
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What is needed is someone who unhesitatingly swings a wrecking ball through what passes for government. What we get with Romney is someone who will put on a new coat of paint and call it good.
I fully expect to see him staff his administration from the same stable his republican predecessors used as well as his democrat fore bearers. Romney is not a change agent; he is an administrator.
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Oh, I remember how this board was just filled with similar comments four years ago. JBT doing midnight raids and hauling off people to the FEMA re-education camps. Odd how that has not seemed to happen. Now cue the comments how it will happen during a second term. [tinfoil]
So some people overestimated the fundamental competence of the incoming administration to implement its agenda. Sorry. :lol:
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Truth land is somewhere in the middle.
Romney won't (be able to) turn jack around. (without)
A fiscially minded Congress and Senate that doesn't give two craps about being reelected.....
FIFY :angel: ;)
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Tommy, I have little faith that given his own devices, Romney would run a fiscally conservative government. IMHO we'll see more of the same Bush like policies, bailouts, crony capitalisim that we got for 8 years.
Expanded war on terror and compassionate conservatisim would be the order of the day.
However, I think he's slippery savvy enough that he would follow the lead of a conservative house and senate.
I'm not holding my breath that we're headed anywhere but to the historical dust bin of failed republics.
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Ron Paul for Treasury Secretary.....
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Tommy, I have little faith that given his own devices, Romney would run a fiscally conservative government. IMHO we'll see more of the same Bush like policies, bailouts, crony capitalisim that we got for 8 years.
Expanded war on terror and compassionate conservatisim would be the order of the day.
However, I think he's slippery savvy enough that he would follow the lead of a conservative house and senate.
I'm not holding my breath that we're headed anywhere but to the historical dust bin of failed republics.
I have some faith in Romney's desire to set things right, but for me the BIG QUESTION is what kind of kongress he'll have working with (or against? ? ?) him. If we continue as we are then I agree with your last sentence; it's the dustbin of failed republics for America.
I'm sort of caught in some nebulous middle-ground; I want to like Romney and believe he can get us out of this mess but the real bitter truth is he can't (and no one else can either) without a supportive congress.
Truth is I really don't have a lot of reason to believe that the kongress is going to be sufficiently changed in Nov. 2012 to help. Too many RINOs. Maybe still too many demorats.
In 2000 I had some faith Bush would ..... until he started yapping about "compassionate conservativism" and being a "uniter, not a divider." That sorta [barf] -ed it for me.........
So maybe I have an optimism gene that needs tweaking. Geeesh. We'll see.
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Remember, improving the economy is far less difficult than actually returning America to her constitutional roots.
And far less difficult than beating the British, winning the Civil War, crushing the Nazis and the Japanese, and then catching up to, and beating, the USSR in the Space Race.
The American people had done this and more.
Norman Borlaug was born in Iowa, remember.
Larry Page, the guy at the helm of the asteroid mining effort, was born in Lansing, Michigan.
Can Romney do this?
No, I am not sure.
Can the American people do this?
Yes, because the American people can do anything.
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Micro, I don't have faith in American exceptionalisim anymore. I doubt most Americans have the will to turn it around. The breads and circuses are all they want.
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Micro, I don't have faith in American exceptionalism anymore.
I never had faith in American exceptionalism. Americans are no different than any other bi-pedal humanoid that has crawled the earth. We have had the benefit of splended physical isolation. the prescience of a small groups of political theoreticians, and dumb luck. All of that does not add up to exceptionism. It adds up to a nation in the right place at the right time with the right preparation. Human nature is not rendered impotent because of the territory in which one is born. What we are seeing play out now is the failure of unadorned human-centered morality. All civilizations trod the same path. To the best of my knowledge we are the only one which was given to tools to regenerate itself, tools which we now consider to be ineffective and archaic.
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After Romney's "meh" speech at the NRA convention, I have less faith in him than ever....
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After Romney's "meh" speech at the NRA convention, I have less faith in him than ever....
He gave a pretty darned GOOD speech this past Tuesday April 24th though.
Now all we can do is see iif he has the cojones to live up to it. He talks the talk, but will he walk the walk? :mad: :police: ;)
Speeches are nice.
Talk is cheap.
And we need to see what he is REALLY MADE OF.