So I saw the polls today

[MicroBalrog]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday is the first to include reaction to both Barack Obamas acceptance speech and John McCains selection of Sarah Palin to be his running mate. The numbers are little changed since yesterday and show Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, its Obama 49% and McCain 45% (see recent daily results).

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

With 49% of the vote, Obama has tied his high for the campaign to date. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008, click here.) He has received a boost in the polls coming out of the Democratic Party's convention this week, at which he became the first African-American to be nominated as the presidential candidate of a major political party.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/109900/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Continues-Lead-49-41.aspx

Where's the Palin Bounce, Comrade APSers?

What does this all mean?

[RocketMan]

What does this all mean?  It means that Palin, while a great pick for McCain, will have little effect on the votes he gathers.  It will still be President Obama come January 20.

Edited to add:  I still thought we'd see at least a small initial bounce for McCain, and that it would dissipate after about a week.  I'm surprised he realized little, if any, bump in his numbers.

[Tallpine]

The only poll that counts is in November

[roo_ster]

Too early to tell.  Wait a few days to a week to see the effect. 

Also, look at several polls, as they all use slightly different methodologies.

[K Frame]

Where's the Palin bounce?

Probably the same place Obama's "15 point convention" bounce they were predicting...

[longeyes]

Don't believe the Mind-Foggers.

I see the wolfpack is off to Wasilla to unmask the rube.  This will backfire come voting day--and echo on beyond.  The Left is rabid; they will tell us that just as Clarence Thomas and Condi Rice weren't really black, Sarah Palin isn't really a woman.  Everything about Palin is their worst nightmare.

[Zardozimo Oprah Bannedalas]

The DNC convention just ended. I wouldn't expect McCain to be ahead this soon.

The choice of Palin was for GOP malcontents first, the rest of the country second, IMO. I wouldn't expect that appointing some unknown lady from Alaska as VP would create a huge positive stir right off the bat.

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

better than 50% of the country don't even know shes his pick yet

[De Selby]

Palin was not a great pick-he's been ragging on the experience wagon this whole time, and now he's trying to sell a local politician as the top pick for Washington.  This will turn out to be one of the more ill-thought out moves of the campaign season, because it will make one of his more powerful arguments against Obama (already an argument that proved a loser for Clinton-the experience card) ring hollow. 

The reaction will run something like this, and it will be effective in rebutting the McCain camp attacks: If long-time experience in dealing with foreign affairs and national issues is so important, why pick a small town mayor turned Governor for a year or so for your running mate?

I suspect that his management has bought into the Clinton's propaganda of "die hard Clintonistas", of which there are in fact very few (as evidenced by Hillary's losing to a relative unknown prior to the primaries), the Clinton's media efforts to remain Mr. & Mrs. America notwithstanding.

In the end, as hard as Hillary tried to unseat Obama, she may have accidentally done him a favor: by convincing the political elite that she had a large popular support base, Obama's opponents have apparently been suckered into making a choice designed to grab the "bitter Clinton supporters."  Because this choice comes at the expense of more concrete and likely voter groups (like, say, the people who believed in McCain's experience arguments about Obama), it will go down as a poor one come November, I'm predicting.

[ArfinGreebly]

Disagree.

At least ONE of the tickets now (finally) has someone with executive experience.  Governors face more meaningful decisions in a month that senators do in a year.

At least ONE of the tickets now has someone who has fought "the machine" and won.

At least ONE of the tickets now has someone with demonstrated political integrity.

At least ONE of the tickets now has someone who comes from the "just plain folks" part of America.

A proven reformer.  A tenacious athlete.  A teacher.  A musician.  A five-time mom.  A lady who don't take no crap and who does the right thing and who demands others do the right thing.

And none of it is made up, none of it is rhetoric, and none of it needs to be amplified or exaggerated.

She knows who she is and she knows where she's from.

Now, maybe, just maybe, that's not enough for the American people.

Maybe the American people have degenerated to the point where they no longer see the value in this.

At least the media jockeys would like it to appear that way.

But we now, for the first time in a long time, have a shot at something genuine in the top executive circle.

If we screw this up, at least we'll have one thing left.

We'll have electrolytes.

[De Selby]

Personally, I'm ambivalent on Palin-I know she is primarily a local politician, and my experience with local politicians has been less than stellar.  But you may be right on every single one of the qualities you identify.

As an objective evaluation of what this does to the election, though, I think your personal appraisals of Palin's strengths will be mostly irrelevant, because of the methods by which the McCain campaign has attacked Obama's experience.  The more Palin's local experience and short stint as a governor are played up, the more bizarre McCain's attacks on Obama's community organizer, law professor, and Senate experience will appear, because most people don't know who Palin is, and none of the people who have a chance of voting for Obama are likely to share your strong confidence in her hunting and fishing "regular folks" bona fides.

So as a practical matter, while she may indeed be the best person to ever be on the run to Washington, this pick shows a lack of good campaign sense on the part of McCain.  Considering that Obama has been nothing short of a brilliant campaigner so far (with the exception of trying to negotiate with the Clintons for their "support"-but then McCain just did that with his VP pick, apparently), this will not bode well for McCain in November.

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

i think there are more pumas than you think

[De Selby]

i think there are more pumas than you think

It's possible, but based on the info so far, they appear to be more like the "legions" of Ron Paul supporters than a real political force.

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

you married? ever really tick off a woman and know real pain and fear?

[MicroBalrog]

i think there are more pumas than you think

It's possible, but based on the info so far, they appear to be more like the "legions" of Ron Paul supporters than a real political force.

If there are half as many Democrat Pumas as there are Republican Ron Paul supporters, that'll be enough to tip the scales.

[drewtam]

Although Palin may lack credibility on the experience side, this is strongly offset by the fact that shes the VP not the Pres. The logic goes something like this: If Palin is too inexperienced for VP then how could one possibly vote for Obama as Pres.
On the offense side of the campaign I'm thinking the McCain campaign sees this as a clever way to get the Obama campaign talking about experience. It only shoots themselves in the foot. On the defensive side it really reaches out to the pro-life and gun rights portions of the republican base. I think the affects of dragging Barack down into the experience fight will be very limited in success and short lived. The rallying of the base will be longer term with moderate success. The VPs are always the side shows anyway. It still comes down to McCain rallying his base and Barack rallying his base. Thats what wins elections, and Barack is ahead by a mile.

[lacoochee]

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews1547.html

 

McCain/Palin 47%
Obama/Biden 45%...

[agricola]

The story with these polls is that, for all the historic, watched-by-millions, lauded by vast flocks of journalists, sheer omfginess of Obama's acceptance speech, he has had very little bounce - if any.  This by itself must deeply disturb his campaign team. 

Its also worth noting that table at the bottom of lachoochee's Zogby link.  Will Palin on the ticket reduce the support Barr will pick up? 

[French G.]

That is the significance, no Obama bounce. You give this rousing speech on the 40th anniversary of MLK's rousing speech and the next day you are still within the margin of error of some old stodge? 

[taurusowner]

If there was an doubt that Palin is the right running mate for VP, here it is:

Palin was not a great pick

With SS against her, we know McCain made the right move

[De Selby]

If there was an doubt that Palin is the right running mate for VP, here it is:

Palin was not a great pick

With SS against her, we know McCain made the right move

Yeah, you might want to reread that post there-note the difference between objective evaluation of the impact of picking Palin on the election, versus my personal opinion, which is very clearly distinguished.

There's a difference between one's own preferences and the realities of the 2008 race.  My ideal candidate would likely be a frankensteinian creation of parts from Ron Paul, Ralph Nader, Thomas Jefferson, and James Madison.  But having my own idea of who should be in charge doesn't mean I have to pretend that the guy closest to it is winning the election, or that the guy winning the election is closest to it.

I don't believe in making slanted or otherwise inaccurate evaluations of a candidate's likely success just because I support or oppose that candidate.

[xavier fremboe]

realclearpolitics.com and politico.com run averages daily.  Rcp also has an options market for the race from another site.  I'm on my mobile, so it's a PITA to navigate away and provide a link.

[Regolith]

Its also worth noting that table at the bottom of lachoochee's Zogby link.  Will Palin on the ticket reduce the support Barr will pick up? 

Anecdotaly....

I'd say yes.  I read a lot of blogs, many of them by libertarians who were having a hard time stomaching McCain.  Almost all of them made a complete 180 after the Palin pick, and are now either excited about the Palin pick or are at least reconsidering their opposition to McCain.  This of course is helped by Barr's "not quite" status as a libertarian and the fact that they absolutely loathe Obama.

There are probably a large number of folks similar to them, who are also now either reconsidering their position or who just jumped on the McCain bandwagon.

[MicroBalrog]

My ideal candidate would likely be a frankensteinian creation of parts from Ron Paul, Ralph Nader, Thomas Jefferson, and James Madison

Remove Nader. Add Kucinich, and I'm with you.

[Tallpine]

Will Palin on the ticket reduce the support Barr will pick up? 

By at least one vote for sure