I don't think it is the hard-core Hillary supporters she'll sway, but the moderate Dem women in the heartland.
Most folks are in the center and she's not a bad fit. Setting aside her qualifications, much of politics in reality is how the silent majority of moderates view you. I think this is how she'd play in the Rust Belt where McCain has some glaring weaknesses.
Her husband is a union man in one of the few remaining American heavy industries, yet she took on the "profiteers" and bosses in Alaska. Got money back to her citizens to help with heating costs.
She has one house in her home town and a fish camp, not any sort of mansion(s).
Played high school sports in a small town, just like their daughters.
She's diverse in that her husband is an AK Native (partly), but that's not scary if they harbor any hidden concerns about race.
Husband is a "man's man" and not bad looking. Not an effete city boy.
Her family hunts, their families hunt.
She is a small town girl, they are small town folks.
PTA and hockey mom who makes time to do both her job and support her kids.
Boy is in the Army, like their boys.
A beauty queen (what a slam to use against her
) but in effect the "Corn Queen" of Wasilla, AK.
She's pro-life, but not in a strident way and she showed the courage of her convictions in having her kids, especially Trig. Most pro-choice "common folks" are, quite rightly, conflicted about it on some level. The "safe, legal and rare" types are the most common and Obama has gone well beyond that in documented voting. If other moms don't see her as
forcing daughters to keep rape babies, I don't think she'll turn them off much.
She's an ID proponant, but her "flavor" hasn't been defined yet and there are a lot of heartland folks who, even if they disagree, are comfortable with the position of "believe what you want, just don't force it on me". If she can walk that line, that can be a plus for a lot of people.
She's already getting the back-handed, yet obvious, "not good enough
because she's a woman" criticisms from the talking heads. Every right thinking person hates that, especially moderate women who were partly on board with Hillary for sex reasons.
I see the numbers skewing more in her favor as she makes herself known to people (assuming she doesn't put her foot in her mouth). Her one real "scandal" with the trooper may actually resonate more than turn folks off as they get more of the context (sticking up for family against a creep).
Again, the swing voters are the common folks, not the idealogues and talking heads. It's too soon to see where her polling will go.
