Was the decline in MFG employment because of automation or trade?

[just Warren]

This report says trade.

The author says that positive accounts of manufacturing have been skewed by the computer industry's stats. That industry has been so prolific that the numbers it generates have caused analysts to misinterpret the real health of manufacturing in this country in general.  

So we're getting rosy reports but underneath all is not well.





Only 25 pages.

[Hawkmoon]

The report is not about a decline in [U.S.] manufacturing, it's about a decline in U.S. manufacturing employment. Different topics. We could have a booming manufacturing climate coupled with massive declines in employment as robotics replaces workers.

IMHO, the initial decline was due to companies sending work overseas, in search of cheaper labor. Now they're using robotics to try to bring some of it back. But, even if they bring back the work, they won't be bringing back the workers. Some, but not those whose jobs can be done better, cheaper, and faster by robots.

[just Warren]

My bad on the title.

Automating takes time and money. And robots cannot do everything.

So if re-shoring keeps happening manufacturers will still be relying on meat-workers for some time yet.

If productivity goes up and prices down as a result this should cause an increase in employment as factories get busier.

I've watched some documentaries where the company was bringing in robots and the workers were worried about their jobs. Turns out the robots got the worst jobs. The low-value jobs, the repetitive mind-numbing jobs, and the dangerous jobs.

The workers shifted to higher value work.

In one case, a guy who was working one machine before the robots came in was put in charge of six machines after they came in. And that company also had to add people to keep up with demand.

In any event let's get the manufacturing back in the US and then we can worry about the robots.

[HankB]

I would just like to be able to buy a USA made toaster intended for the home (not commercial restaurant!) market.

[cordex]

I would just like to be able to buy a USA made toaster intended for the home (not commercial restaurant!) market.

Just make one.

[MikeB]

How are they determining where the “manufacturing” is occurring. I know my company subcontracts Manufacturing of some of our products overseas. Then because they package the product in the US with its software, manual, incidentals, etc. they say it is made in the US. My understanding is that this is quite common.

[MechAg94]

The cost and liability of labor is much higher today.  That changes the way decisions are made greatly.  I think they used to just throw people at something to get it done.  The cost of extra labor in the field to correct errors or do field fit of piping was lower.  Now, managers are much more careful about head count and contract labor costs.  My company's head count for direct employees is made at a very high level.  On the manufacturing side, the demand for high quality and precision changes the way things are done also.

[Firethorn]

So if re-shoring keeps happening manufacturers will still be relying on meat-workers for some time yet.

I remember watching a piece on them in-sourcing water heaters.  Specifically those fancy heat pump water heaters that cool your utility room even as they heat the water.

Anyways, they were installing the factory line into a building that had previously been used to make water heaters back in the '70s or such.  They  automated the crap out of it.  Word was, the factory once employed thousands of workers.  When it was outsourced to China, they employed hundreds there to produce the same number of heaters.  In the new factory?  For making even more water heaters than back when the factory was open, they're employing "dozens".  Hell, in tooling the factory up, they ended up redesigning the unit to make automated manufacturing easier, and in the process simplified things and made the thing more reliable. 

HankB - https://www.amazon.com/slp/toaster-made-in-usa/j2htna4ob9tm5vr

Can't guarantee they're actually made in the USA, but it's a start?

And a commercial restaurant toaster at least probably won't break in your lifetime.



If productivity goes up and prices down as a result this should cause an increase in employment as factories get busier.

I've watched some documentaries where the company was bringing in robots and the workers were worried about their jobs. Turns out the robots got the worst jobs. The low-value jobs, the repetitive mind-numbing jobs, and the dangerous jobs.

The workers shifted to higher value work.

In one case, a guy who was working one machine before the robots came in was put in charge of six machines after they came in. And that company also had to add people to keep up with demand.

In any event let's get the manufacturing back in the US and then we can worry about the robots.
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