Author Topic: BOHICA  (Read 15607 times)

AZRedhawk44

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #25 on: September 14, 2012, 01:32:57 PM »
Hold your own gold and make your own rules.

Once I hit my goal for silver possession, I'm going to shift gears to gold.  Start with 2.5gram and 5 gram bars (less than 1/10th and 1/6th of an ounce respectively) and work up from there.  Or maybe start trading silver for gold when the ratio's in my favor and I can work a deal rather than buying with greenbacks.  It's so stinking expensive!
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Tallpine

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #26 on: September 14, 2012, 02:04:11 PM »
Quote
If you let them, and you play by their rules.

Since there is no tomorrow, I'm not going to play by their rules anymore  ;)

 :lol:
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Jamisjockey

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #27 on: September 14, 2012, 02:11:30 PM »
Hold your own gold and make your own rules.

Once I hit my goal for silver possession, I'm going to shift gears to gold.  Start with 2.5gram and 5 gram bars (less than 1/10th and 1/6th of an ounce respectively) and work up from there.  Or maybe start trading silver for gold when the ratio's in my favor and I can work a deal rather than buying with greenbacks.  It's so stinking expensive!

Coins vs. bars IMHO becaue the coins are more easily verified for trade without assay. 
I'll likely stick to physical silver.  As gold climbs more, silver will become more popular.  Not sure I have a goal, just gonna keep aquiring it when I can. 
JD

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AZRedhawk44

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #28 on: September 14, 2012, 02:32:01 PM »
Coins vs. bars IMHO becaue the coins are more easily verified for trade without assay. 
I'll likely stick to physical silver.  As gold climbs more, silver will become more popular.  Not sure I have a goal, just gonna keep aquiring it when I can. 

The 2.5gram and 5 gram bars have assay stamps from reputable mints and are individually serial numbered.  Not worried about that.

Once you hit a certain weight threshold and want to be able to transport that representation of wealth, it's easier to do with gold than silver.

My goal for that threshold right now is about 200 ounces, or 12-15 pounds of silver.  Troy ounces aren't the same as conventional weight ounces, so not sure exactly.  I think a troy ounce is heavier than a regular ounce.

200 ounces right now represents about $6500-$7000 in wealth.  Not a lot, but enough to transplant a family somewhere else far away and put a roof over your head for a month or so while you get your bearings and try to find a new life.

If you want to transport the equivalent of $25,000 right now, gold is far easier on the back. 

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zxcvbob

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #29 on: September 14, 2012, 02:32:48 PM »
Coins vs. bars IMHO becaue the coins are more easily verified for trade without assay. 
I'll likely stick to physical silver.  As gold climbs more, silver will become more popular.  Not sure I have a goal, just gonna keep aquiring it when I can. 

As someone else already said, I'm stockpiling lead and brass.  I also have a couple of pounds of antique Sterling silver flatware (1890's) that I've been putting off getting appraised.  I might just hang onto it.
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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #30 on: September 14, 2012, 03:15:47 PM »
Awesome...not
  I'd like to think, hey, I made a grand in like 5 minutes, when in fact, I didn't, just the dollar got that much weaker.  Stupid fed.

This.

Why scrimp and save and play by the rules when they change the rules so often to hose those that played by the previous set of rules?

If this were a Republican administration, we'd hear all about how the elderly & retired were getting shafted by minuscule rates of return on their investments and inflation eating their principle.
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birdman

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #31 on: September 14, 2012, 03:42:08 PM »
For purposes of estimating weight, a Troy oz is about 1.1x an avoirdupois ounce.
(a Troy oz is 480grains, an avoirdupois pound is 7000)

brimic

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #32 on: September 14, 2012, 03:47:20 PM »
Quote
Why scrimp and save and play by the rules when they change the rules so often to hose those that played by the previous set of rules?

^^YES^^
Its a game of suck and blow.
The game makers change X to make Y attractive to suck in 'investors', then sell off Y to grab as much wealth as possible. The lemmings follow the sell off, and the game makers buy it back at a lower price.

Right now X = money supply and Y = gold.

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charby

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #33 on: September 14, 2012, 10:24:20 PM »
I'll take my PM's and flat-out buy some land somewhere else. 

Do you really think that land will even be obtainable (for a cost) in some sort of hyperinflation? Especially if you are thinking about self sufficiency on it.
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RoadKingLarry

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #34 on: September 14, 2012, 11:47:56 PM »
On the one hand my 401K took a serious jump.
On the other hand what I'll be able to buy with that money just went to crap.
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.

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Scout26

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #35 on: September 15, 2012, 12:24:32 AM »
And the Fed is buying Mortgage Backed Securities.

Rentenmark anyone?




FYI = 1 Rentenmark = 1,000,000,000 Papiermark
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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #36 on: September 15, 2012, 12:35:37 AM »
Spend it while it's worth something.

charby

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #37 on: September 15, 2012, 12:51:25 AM »
Spend it while it's worth something.

I need a time machine then, heck I'd just got back to the late 1990's.
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brimic

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #38 on: September 15, 2012, 02:13:29 AM »
"now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb" -Dark Helmet

"AK47's belong in the hands of soldiers mexican drug cartels"-
Barack Obama

charby

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #39 on: September 15, 2012, 09:11:41 AM »
Hold your own gold and make your own rules.

Once I hit my goal for silver possession, I'm going to shift gears to gold.  Start with 2.5gram and 5 gram bars (less than 1/10th and 1/6th of an ounce respectively) and work up from there.  Or maybe start trading silver for gold when the ratio's in my favor and I can work a deal rather than buying with greenbacks.  It's so stinking expensive!

So what does a ounce of silver buy now? A case of beer and a steak? What will that case of beer and steak cost if hyperinfaltion occurs, I bet a lot more than a ounce of silver.

Wouldn't it make more sense to try and place your greenbacks into some sort of investment that pays better than the rate of inflation? I know it is hard to find something with that rate of return but it could be done.
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Blakenzy

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #40 on: September 15, 2012, 09:36:05 AM »
So what does a ounce of silver buy now? A case of beer and a steak? What will that case of beer and steak cost if hyperinfaltion occurs, I bet a lot more than a ounce of silver.

A case of beer and a steak should still cost the same ounce of silver (or $1,000 in its hyperinflated currency denomination ;)) ...unless there is a significant production disruption that makes booze and meat much harder to acquire than silver.

And if the US has a severe shortage of beer and red meat... screw return on investments it's Mad Max time  =D
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zxcvbob

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #41 on: September 15, 2012, 09:47:10 AM »
A case of beer and a steak should still cost the same ounce of silver (or $1,000 in its hyperinflated currency denomination ;)) ...unless there is a significant production disruption that makes booze and meat much harder to acquire than silver.

And if the US has a severe shortage of beer and red meat... screw return on investments it's Mad Max time  =D

Maybe I should add yeast, hops pellets (vacuum packed) and barley malt to my TEOTWAWKI stash...
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birdman

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #42 on: September 15, 2012, 11:54:40 AM »
A case of beer and a steak should still cost the same ounce of silver (or $1,000 in its hyperinflated currency denomination ;)) ...unless there is a significant production disruption that makes booze and meat much harder to acquire than silver.

And if the US has a severe shortage of beer and red meat... screw return on investments it's Mad Max time  =D

This.

In fact, I was bored one Saturday and analyzed housing and car prices since 1973-2009 compared to PM's.  The median home (adjusted for housing supply and demand and square footage) cost the same amount then as it does now, same for your basic "car".   Food has gotten cheaper relative to PM's due to improved supply, but in general, most things index pretty well to PM's.  HOWEVER, PM's now are -technically- overvalued on a purchasing basis because monetary velocity is partially suppressed, which means price inflation hasn't occurred yet, while -true- inflation has (money supply to GDP).  Price spikes WILL occur when velocity takes off, which will happen, ironically, if things get worse, stay the same, or even get better.  That being said, PM prices relatie to true money supply are still well indexed, so as a store of value, they are still good. 

Remember, PM's are a bad investment onto themselves, and are only an investment relative to currency, or if used as capital to create actual value-add business (store of value then used as capital if there is a demand for capital in a recovery).  So in the long run, PM is a good investment, but only if a correction results in its utility as a reliable store of capital being useful (ie post correction recovery).  Otherwise, it's an inflation proof hedge.

Right now though, the demand is extremely high, and will get higher, driving the pride above what it would be merely as a value store, so the investment value is decreasing, as is the true purchasing power, but it still is a good store of value, in my opinion, especially given QE-infinity, at least until prices get 20-30% higher, at which point consumer demand into those materials will cause ultra rapid price spikes, as no one wants to sell, but everyone opwants to buy.  That is when you STOP buying and selling.

My logic is, buy until the "average" person starts buying, then stop.

Then, before the logic starts shifting from protecting value to protecting life (storage food demand is now the average persons interest, or people start selling PM's), exchange a fraction of PM's for excess of those (as at that point their price in dollars will be absurd), and then hold on to both.

Right now, all of my excess dollars (beyond 10-15% in PM's, and ensuring at least 3-6mo supply of consumables) go into mainly "tools"--tangible items with intrinsic value to perform functions or create value in a non-informational economy.  Basically: food>gun>wrench>gold. 

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #43 on: September 15, 2012, 06:05:47 PM »
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=LS879r7xeLc
Peter Schiff has a nice, sunny outlook on what QE3 means.

Sergeant Bob

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #44 on: September 15, 2012, 11:00:37 PM »
Easing, easing, easing, easing, Bernanke's got a plan!

Soon the *expletive deleted*it's gonna hit the fan!
Personally, I do not understand how a bunch of people demanding a bigger govt can call themselves anarchist.
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brimic

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #45 on: September 15, 2012, 11:10:36 PM »
Quote
Right now though, the demand is extremely high, and will get higher, driving the pride above what it would be merely as a value store, so the investment value is decreasing, as is the true purchasing power, but it still is a good store of value, in my opinion, especially given QE-infinity, at least until prices get 20-30% higher, at which point consumer demand into those materials will cause ultra rapid price spikes, as no one wants to sell, but everyone opwants to buy.  That is when you STOP buying and selling.

My logic is, buy until the "average" person starts buying, then stop.
Those assumptions only hold up if the PM markets aren't being manipulated to start with.

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RoadKingLarry

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #46 on: September 15, 2012, 11:17:59 PM »
Spend it while it's worth something.

I've been dumping a good bit into my 401K, I'm thinking about cutting that back a little. Right now I'm set to pay off my mortgage in March. About the best I could shorten that by would be maybe a couple of months though.
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.

Samuel Adams

drewtam

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #47 on: September 16, 2012, 03:05:55 AM »
I'm not too sure this is a terrible move, or really even a relevant move.

The private sector (people and companies) have started a process of deleveraging and paying down debt (and failing those good options, going bankrupt).

Such macro behavior of the country is a strong deflationary effect on money. That behavior usually dwarfs that of the federal gov't, except when we run massive deficits. Even with this administration and congress's unprecedented deficits, it did not keep up with private debt reduction, which continues apace. From this point of view, the QE1-3 probably had a minimal affect on anything, which we have seen as pretty low inflation despite the huge increase in M0. The bigger effect may have been the bank bailouts. This can be seen by comparing M2 - M0.

Oh yeah, I think this plot is mislabeled "Years since 1990", I think it should be "2000"... M3 was stopped measuring in 2006, not 96, and QE was in 08, not 98.



I would suggest a more powerful move would be for the central bank to directly buy mortgage debt and forgive it. More bluntly, to pay off the debt of the private sector.

A bailout for the borrower, and not the banks. Which is a very biblical concept, a sort of Jubilee. But it would not be painless either, I think it would just speed up the pain and help get it over in the next 1-2 years rather than the next 10years this one has yet to go, at its current trajectory. Besides, I don't think our gov't can survive another 10yrs of this trajectory of spending. They will be another credit bubble unto themselves, and are nearly so now.
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Hutch

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #48 on: September 16, 2012, 12:36:40 PM »
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I would suggest a more powerful move would be for the central bank to directly buy mortgage debt and forgive it. More bluntly, to pay off the debt of the private sector.
Can you even imagine the resentment this would spark?  The biggest debtors getting the the most benefit?  Clue up.  Section 8 and thrifty Dave Ramseyan adherents get porked, over-extended yuppies and house flippers get bailed out, and the currency loses a sizable fraction of its value.  When did THAT get to be a good idea?  Don't mean to be harshin' on your mellow, but that sounds like empty-headedness.  Am I missing something?
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drewtam

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #49 on: September 16, 2012, 03:31:50 PM »
Can you even imagine the resentment this would spark?  The biggest debtors getting the the most benefit?  Clue up.  Section 8 and thrifty Dave Ramseyan adherents get porked, over-extended yuppies and house flippers get bailed out, and the currency loses a sizable fraction of its value.  When did THAT get to be a good idea?  Don't mean to be harshin' on your mellow, but that sounds like empty-headedness.  Am I missing something?

Yes, you missed quite a bit. So get off the high horse and try again.


Fed increased the money supply.


Banks soaked it up.


Money is not flowing.


Prices (in general) are not rising in step with the increase in money stock. The money stock is currently decoupled from price increase. As bad as 10,20, 30% inflation is, deflation can be a much more severe yoke on the economic incentives of a country. I think both Keynes and Austrian economists agree that far. They probably disagree on the mechanism.


My understanding is this...
Deflation effectively makes loans more difficult to repay and also drives layoffs due to sticky wages. And on the margin, difficult loans are lost in bankruptcy and write downs. This destroys money too, faster than paying down debt destroys money stock. Bankruptcy and debt reduction causes more deflationary force. This explanation probably goes hand in hand with Keynes' concept of a liquidity trap, since scary bankruptcy environment drives money hoarding with the extra benefit of increasing value of the time held in vault.

If this is an accurate deflationary mechanism, then debt to gdp is a major factor in understanding deflation/inflation.
Oh look at this...hmmm what is the weird spike in 1932? and 2008?



Quite the scary graph. We have a lot of debt to pay off and write down. This is going to be a long ride down, with a strong deflationary force, just like the 30s.

This graph is adjusted for CPI, the actual debt peak was 1928, but deflation made those old loans continue to increase in "price" over time even though the nominal debt had not changed in years.
Hence, my thought of finding some way to help eliminate debt and directly counteract the deflation.
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