Let's think through some ban scenarios

[Balog]

First off, I'm not posting this in Politics and I hope it'll stay non-political. I want to think about the effects of a few of the most likely ban scenarios, not debate the likelihood of any of them.

That said, here are some of the facts at the moment. EBR's (esp AR's) had been becoming far more popular and accepted by the Fudd crowd for years. Everyone making a model, selling them in Walmart etc. With the recent ban talks, the internet sold out of everything: it's not as bad now but for over a week I literally couldn't find a single retailer who was not out of stock on any AK pattern rifle. I wasn't checking but I believe the same was more or less true of AR's. Any magazine over 10 rounds was basically sold out most places as well. Naturally prices skyrocket, doubling and tripling on rifles and going up even more on mags. I saw a 100 pack of pmags ($10 each the week before) sell for $7500. Ammo was pretty well cleaned out for the 5.56, 7.62x39 etc. So, a lot of new folks have EBR's, and a lot of folks who owned a couple before now own lots more. Many of them were bought at highly inflated prices.

Now, given that set of facts (and any others you care to present), what will the markets do in reaction to these scenarios?

1. DNC uses "compromise" on not pushing a ban or EO'ing anti-gun stuff to get the GOP to cave on fiscal cliff stuff. No change in gun laws.

2. No legislation gets through, but Obama EO expands the import ban. Not much changes for AR guys, but all the quality foreign ammo/rifles/mags dry up for the AK guys.

3. A mag capacity ban is passed, but nothing else.

4. A mag ban and import restrictions are put in place.
   
5. A more drastic ban is put in place, but one that is not so intolerable as to cause the frog to jump the pot.

[BobR]

6. Magazine ban and no more private party sales, all transfers will have to go through an FFL.

bob

[charby]

Maybe stop calling them ebr's.

[vaskidmark]

7. Registration of all firearms.  Market continues but with 10%-15% mark-up to cover cost of retailer completing registration documents.  Private sales prices increase proportinately.

7a. Registration of all semiautomatic rifles/registration of all semiautomatic firearms.  Same as above.

7b.  BATFEieio copies all existing 4473 forms and cross-checks against firearms registered.  Demands explanation of any not registered by person identified on 4473.  (For the sake of argument, ATF accepts "sold privately" and "lost in tragic boat accident".)  Market uneffected.

8. Making all items in #7a subject to NFA (additional registration and tax).  Buying dries up, for all intents and purposes.

9. Make possession of semiautomatic firearm a crime.  No registration - just an outright ban.  Feds give lip service to the Takings Clause and give out Wal-Mart cards for turning in your firearms.  What market.  No federal unemployment for workers thrown out of jobs, but lots of openings in Obama's Citizen Corps - or whatever the name of that was supposed to be.

9a.  Feds ignore Takings Clause.  No door-to-door searches but BATFEieio takes all existing 4473 forms and compares against firearms turned in.  Demands verification/proff of explanations such as "sold privately" or "lost in tragic boating accident".  Same as above.

9b. Door-to-door searches.  Market response cannot be stated in keeping with request to keep thread non-political.

Basically, I see the feds going as far as #8.   Reason cannot be stated in keeping with request to keep thread non-political.

stay safe.

[seeker_two]

10. Attempt to ban semi-autos fails. As a "compromise", a value-added 20% "public safety" tax is put on guns, ammo, & accessories to fund increased school security (kiddie-TSA) & increased services for mental health (under Obamacare, of course). Over time, the tax money is diverted to everything but its intended goal, and the Feds call for a tax increase to cover the costs of the programs they aren't paying for. The tax goes to 30%, then 50%, etc. The Second Amendment is priced out of practice.

[Jamisjockey]

A discussion about gun bans has no where to go but policital.

[Monkeyleg]

If it's political, why is it open to comment?

[charby]

Only mods can post on a closed forum. Ml you're a mod.

[Monkeyleg]

But I wasn't saying anything of substance.

[RoadKingLarry]

Ha!

My most probable scenario:

They will either NFA or out right ban possession of a fairly broad class of firearms based mostly on cosmetic features.
There will be no door to door confiscation.
An amnesty period will be given with severe penalties, (10 years & $10k is customery isnt it)imposed for noncompliance.
Anyone caught with contraband weapons will face stiff penalties but those willing to help by turning in any and all they know that also posses banned items will get a plea deal or possibly immunity. High rewards will be offered for turning in people with banned items. This will work surprisingly well.
A few well publicized, successful no-knock SWAT raids where the family poodle and the criminal in possession of a banned weapon are killed will help to bolster support and funding for even stronger enforcement measures.
Most Americans will go back to drinking beer and watching what ever sporting playoff is in season at the time.

[Balog]

I was really sort of hoping folks would want to talk about the economic implications of the handful of scenarios I listed, rather than delve into the nigh infinite list of "wjat if's" surrounding the future.

[AZRedhawk44]

Now, given that set of facts (and any others you care to present), what will the markets do in reaction to these scenarios?

1. DNC uses "compromise" on not pushing a ban or EO'ing anti-gun stuff to get the GOP to cave on fiscal cliff stuff. No change in gun laws.

2. No legislation gets through, but Obama EO expands the import ban. Not much changes for AR guys, but all the quality foreign ammo/rifles/mags dry up for the AK guys.

3. A mag capacity ban is passed, but nothing else.

4. A mag ban and import restrictions are put in place.
   
5. A more drastic ban is put in place, but one that is not so intolerable as to cause the frog to jump the pot.

1. Higher taxes.  Less freedom in investments.  Possible attacks against precious metal investors.

2. AK's and SKS's get cheap.  When the trailer park gun millionaires with a duffel bag full of combloc rifles can't get their ammo, they'll want to switch to NATO chambered stuff (to shoot their car spoilers off) 

3. Largely ignored by most currently active gunnies.  I'm laying in several dozen extra mags so that I can provide them for people I trust later on.  Political efforts to repeal will amp up.  Economic effects will be marginal since mag capacity has little to do with economic issues.

4. Import restrictions on AK's and SKS's make them expensive, but import restrictions on Wolf/Tula/*Bear ammo will balance out that expense.  We might see Tula open a shop in the US to squeeze out steel/lacquer cased ammo domestically.

5. Ignored to deliberately spite the feds, enforcement puts many affluent and intelligent and successful people behind bars or in financial peril.  The economy suffers from a lack of intelligent people to drive it.  Atlas Shrugs because he can't hold the ball up while in prison.

[Jamisjockey]

My prediction:
Outright ban dies on the vine.  Maybe some versions get passed limiting FTF sales (so called "gun show loophole"), limiting or restricting ammo purchases is my biggest prediction (only licensed dealers, show ID, recording ammo sales over certain amount).
I had a realization that the NRA suggestions could be our worst enemy.  So a new bill comes down the pike to put armed officers in every school.....funded by taxes on firearms, accessories and ammunition.....
I also see the President being frustrated by Congress and even the Senate on passing any "meaningful" legislation, and using the BATFE to pass stiffer regulations, drive more FFL's out of business, and harass lawful gun owners.

[Balog]

Wouldn't they have to repeal provisions of FOPA '86 to require logging ammo purchases?

[RoadKingLarry]

Wouldn't they have to repeal provisions of FOPA '86 to require logging ammo purchases?

Whats to stop them? Look what they did in response to all the US guns that were turning up in Mexico....

[gunsmith]

My prediction:
Outright ban dies on the vine.  Maybe some versions get passed limiting FTF sales (so called "gun show loophole"), limiting or restricting ammo purchases is my biggest prediction (only licensed dealers, show ID, recording ammo sales over certain amount).
I had a realization that the NRA suggestions could be our worst enemy.  So a new bill comes down the pike to put armed officers in every school.....funded by taxes on firearms, accessories and ammunition.....
I also see the President being frustrated by Congress and even the Senate on passing any "meaningful" legislation, and using the BATFE to pass stiffer regulations, drive more FFL's out of business, and harass lawful gun owners.

This, if however if the R's that can stop it do not really try, I am voting Libertarian from then on.

[kgbsquirrel]

Here's something I just thought of, I suppose it would be scenario 2a as it would fall under the EO type deal...

EO banning not just import of all arms, but also import of any materials for the purpose of manufacturing arms domestically.

Copper for making cartridge brass and jackets. Steel for barrels, parts and tooling (the high speed steel I used to make my lathe bits was made in India and China).

That could jack up the price significantly to the point where many manufacturers wouldn't be able to sustain their business model.



Oh, and here's a hypothetical that just ran through my head, I suppose you can file it under compromise. A constitutional amendment that clearly states that all citizens have the right to own and carry any long-arm in existence (including things like an M240B beltfed), open or concealed, anywhere. But no privately owned pistols. Do you support it? 

[birdman]

Oh, and here's a hypothetical that just ran through my head, I suppose you can file it under compromise. A constitutional amendment that clearly states that all citizens have the right to own and carry any long-arm in existence (including things like an M240B beltfed), open or concealed, anywhere. But no privately owned pistols. Do you support it? 

No. Not in a million years.  Shall not be infringed.

I'm now taking a more active role in various arguments with friends, using "disarmament" in place of gun control, and specifically making the point to anti's that they red to give reason why MY firearms need to be taken away.  The time for hypothetical is past.

[longeyes]

The marketplace--white, black, or gray--will deal with the varieties of foolishness that come along.

[Ron]

Dear congressman,

MOLON LABE

  j/k