One "benefit" of the coming diminution of U.S. Power

[makattak]

I'm watching as our president proves his "leadership" capabilities on the world stage and had the thought that this might be the beginning of end of the US as a superpower and a return to the state of the world pre-Pax Americana.

As the US withdraws from the world (either by choice or forced to it by economic necessity), the void will not be left empty. I doubt one country will assert itself as dominant, but instead we will have the much more normal state of countries warring with one another and vying for control/conquest.

This will, of course, create tensions and uncertainties across the globe. The ever present threat of the United States stepping in if someone gets too disruptive has kept the world at peace. (Relative, we won't see true Peace while man rules.)

Once that peace is gone, so too will be the conditions that allow for "Just in Time" manufacturing and, honestly, significant foreign investments.

When we are no longer a superpower, we'll be bringing all kinds of manufacturing either home to the US or to a nearby country where we still have influence. (Canada, Mexico, maybe Central America.)

So, to all those people who complain about "Globalization", all we have to do is end the hegemony of U.S. power and it will end! Happy days will be here again!

(Of course, everyone, worldwide, but specifically in the US, will be poorer as we will have to pay more for every good and service, but, at least in this country it's all American (or close to it) made! Woo! Amiright?!)

[brimic]

The British Empire isn't even a shadow of a shadow of its former self.
It dominated the entire world for several hundred years up until WWII.
How did it lose its numero uno status in the world? Its currency was destroyed by WWII and the USA stepped up to take that role.
I really have my doubts that the US will be able to hold together if when our currency fails.

[SADShooter]

I'm on board with your scenario, given the predicate that when the next cause celebre/humanitarian crisis rolls around we do actually exercise self-restrain and don't give way to the constituencies with interventionist agendas. I'm not thoroughly convinced we're there yet...

As to the economic ramifications, I think we're in for a rough ride no matter what, in line with brimic's observation. That being said, I can't see a downside to a resurgence of domestic production if the global basis for information innovation diminishes.

[HankB]

The British Empire isn't even a shadow of a shadow of its former self.
It dominated the entire world for several hundred years up until WWII.
How did it lose its numero uno status in the world? Its currency was destroyed by WWII and the USA stepped up to take that role.
I really have my doubts that the US will be able to hold together if when our currency fails.

  Some people peg the fall of Rome to the grain dole. (Bread and circuses, anyone?)
Britain's welfare state is legendary.
The USA is spending around $1,000,000,000,000.00 a year - a TRILLION dollars - on various (supposedly) means-tested entitlement programs - a number pretty close to the annual deficit. (BTW, this figure does NOT include Social Security!)

Isn't there an old adage about history repeating itself?

[agricola]

  Some people peg the fall of Rome to the grain dole. (Bread and circuses, anyone?)
Britain's welfare state is legendary.
The USA is spending around $1,000,000,000,000.00 a year - a TRILLION dollars - on various (supposedly) means-tested entitlement programs - a number pretty close to the annual deficit. (BTW, this figure does NOT include Social Security!)

Isn't there an old adage about history repeating itself?

Our welfare state didnt exist when our Empire went into terminal decline, and noone who knows much about Roman history pegs the fall of Rome to the grain dole.   

Personally, I think that the majority of problems relating to the US and its immediate future (and this can be extrapolated out to the West as a whole) can be laid at the door of a significant proportion of the population having had it very good for quite a long time. 

[AZRedhawk44]

Personally, I think that the majority of problems relating to the US and its immediate future (and this can be extrapolated out to the West as a whole) can be laid at the door of a significant proportion of the population having had it very good for quite a long time. 

There's something to this quote of John Adams, despite him being one of the great progenitors of Statism:

“I must study politics and war, that my sons may have the liberty to study mathematics and philosophy, natural history and naval architecture, in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, tapestry, and porcelain.”

It ties hand in hand to this quote, from Alexander Tytler:

From bondage to spiritual faith,
From spiritual faith to great courage,
From courage to liberty,
From liberty to abundance,
From abundance to selfishness,
From selfishness to complacency,
From complacency to apathy,
From apathy to dependency,
From dependency back again to bondage.

Applied intellectual and spiritual rigor is mandatory to own a proper appreciation of freedom.

Adams gave his response quoted above when questioned by French diplomatic nobility about the lack of culture in the New World.  France had the poetry, sculpture, music and other decadent achievements mentioned at the end of Adams' quote... but was 15 years away from its own collapse from social dissatisfaction with government.

In Tytler's cycle, we are approaching the dependency/bondage stage, what with the welfare state in the condition it is in.  It's not yet the majority of the country, but then again... the Revolution only utilized 3% of the population at any given time.  If 3% of the domestic FSA actually developed their own form of "spiritual faith" and "great courage" in a direction compatible with FSA goals...we could have a serious problem.

[lee n. field]

  Some people peg the fall of Rome to the grain dole. (Bread and circuses, anyone?)

Rome wasn't abrupt.  It took centuries, and kind of fizzled out into the middle ages.

[Tallpine]

Rome wasn't abrupt.  It took centuries, and kind of fizzled out into the middle ages.

The eastern half of the empire didn't fall until the 15th century.

But the USSR came apart pretty fast.

[MicroBalrog]

The eastern half of the empire didn't fall until the 15th century.

But the USSR came apart pretty fast.

The USSR was just another iteration of the Russian Empire... which basically retains most of its territory today.

It's useful to compare what exists today to the original territory of Muscovy.

[geronimotwo]

From bondage to spiritual faith,
From spiritual faith to great courage,
From courage to liberty,
From liberty to abundance,
From abundance to selfishness,
From selfishness to complacency,
From complacency to apathy,
From apathy to dependency,
From dependency back again to bondage.

az, thanks for this quote......too true......now, how do we break the cycle?

[makattak]

az, thanks for this quote......too true......now, how do we break the cycle?

Simple. Just change human nature.

[MechAg94]

Simple. Just change human nature.

Exactly, it is a generational thing.  Each generation of youth grows up under circumstances different from the generation before them.  That affects their thinking for their entire lives both in what they think is important and what they are willing to accept as "normal".

[ramis]

Personally, I think that the majority of problems relating to the US and its immediate future (and this can be extrapolated out to the West as a whole) can be laid at the door of a significant proportion of the population having had it very good for quite a long time.

"History is filled with the sound of silken slippers going downstairs and wooden shoes going up." - Voltaire

Most Americans have been wearing silken slippers for quite a while now.

[MicroBalrog]

Just-in-time delivery and globalisation are the result of technological progress and improved delivery methods.

If some country tried to mess with the resulting system by, say, blocking shipping lanes, literally everyone would run them down.

Observe Russia's reaction to Somalian pirates.

[mtnbkr]

Just-in-time delivery and globalisation are the result of technological progress and improved delivery methods.

If some country tried to mess with the resulting system by, say, blocking shipping lanes, literally everyone would run them down.

Observe Russia's reaction to Somalian pirates.

There's more to it than shipping lanes.  Technological progress and improved delivery methods still rely on stable markets, production, and transport ability.  Shipping companies have to have adequate capital to operate.  Factories must be able to produce raw materials.  Interruptions don't have to be due to social unrest or criminality, they can be caused by business factors such as insecurity, lack of funds, etc.  You cannot prevent that with military power.  A hiccup at any stage will delay the entire chain. 

Chris

[lupinus]

There's more to it than shipping lanes.  Technological progress and improved delivery methods still rely on stable markets, production, and transport ability.  Shipping companies have to have adequate capital to operate.  Factories must be able to produce raw materials.  Interruptions don't have to be due to social unrest or criminality, they can be caused by business factors such as insecurity, lack of funds, etc.  You cannot prevent that with military power.  A hiccup at any stage will delay the entire chain. 

Chris

And the hiccups are frequent and often. 

It has it's places, but that place isn't everyplace and time.

[makattak]

Just-in-time delivery and globalisation are the result of technological progress and improved delivery methods.

If some country tried to mess with the resulting system by, say, blocking shipping lanes, literally everyone would run them down.

Observe Russia's reaction to Somalian pirates.

Blocking shipping lanes is an overt action. Breaking down the reliable transportation that allows for Just in Time does not require acts of war.

Instability, "hostilities", actual wars, governmental collapse, breakdown in foreign infrastructure, etc... all can derail those "improved delivery methods".

Technology facilitates globalization and just-in-time production. It is a necessary but not sufficient condition for their emergence and continued existence. Should the stability the world currently enjoys fall apart, technology will not be able to ameliorate the uncertainty that would be the necessary result.

[zahc]

I work in an industry where our orders can completely dry up just if the forecasts for the holiday season are "less than optimum". All it takes to put us under is a dip in "consumer confidence". I agree that nobody has to shoot at us or block our shipping lanes for moderate-scale chaos to ensue in the markets. This generation has never known rations or shortages.

[Tallpine]

This generation has never known rations or shortages.

Dot two two long rifle ?   

[zahc]

I work in an industry where our orders can completely dry up just if the forecasts for the holiday season are "less than optimum". All it takes to put us under is a dip in "consumer confidence". I agree that nobody has to shoot at us or block our shipping lanes for moderate-scale chaos to ensue in the markets. This generation has never known rations or shortages.

[lee n. field]

Dot two two long rifle ?   

"I see no shortage here."