AJDual: the Wisconsin elections?

[Monkeyleg]

AJ, I didn't want to interfere in the other thread with more discussion about tomorrow's primary, and the general election.

I haven't been following the primary closely, so I didn't know that Neumann may try a run as an independent. Is that really the case? If so, that's infuriating.

Four years ago, Terry Kohler and the other money guys in the Republican party wanted Mark Green, and Walker bowed out gracefully. From what I understand, Barrett has a large funding advantage because of the primary battle between Neumann and Walker. I don't understand why so many Republicans have a problem with Walker.

Leave it to the Wisconsin Republican party to screw up a gift horse.

[cosine]

I haven't been following the primary closely, so I didn't know that Neumann may try a run as an independent. Is that really the case? If so, that's infuriating.
(...)
Leave it to the Wisconsin Republican party to screw up a gift horse.

I didn't know this either until AJ's post yesterday. If Neumann runs as an independent I'll be hopping mad too.

[Strings]

Guess we'll know in a day or three

[brimic]

Neumann can't run as an independent after the primary.

If Neumann wins, he's likely  to pull a ' Tim Michels' and 'run out of money' while demanding that the Republican party funds the rest of his campaign.

[StopTheGrays]

Neumann can't run as an independent after the primary.

If Neumann wins, he's likely  to pull a ' Tim Michels' and 'run out of money' while demanding that the Republican party funds the rest of his campaign.

He has not put any more of his own money into his campaign since the end of August.
http://elections.wispolitics.com/2010/09/neumann-doesnt-put-any-more-of-own.html

[AJ Dual]

After the primary? I'm not worried.

Walker has had a pretty consistent 9-10 point lead over Barrett all summer. I know you aren't supposed to EVER conclude yard signs mean anything, but seeing zero Democrat signs anywhere is a bit different. 

Neumann was making noises about running independent right before the GOP convention. Hopefully, it was just one more attempt to strong arm the GOP into endorsing him over Walker, which obviously did not happen. I'm guessing he's just a rational, if scuzzy player in the process, and does not really intend to spend more money, time, and effort on a scorched earth campaign he won't win just to spite the GOP over whatever it is he thinks he's owed.

Hopefully if the Republicans do get a solid majority, they learn their lesson, and ram through TABOR, put the QEO back in place, Voter ID, and CCW.

This is the year in WI you could pin a GOP button on a dog turd, and it stands a good chance of winning outside of Milwaukee's north side and Madison. So in a year like that, a simple commandment "don't screw up" is more important to winning than anything else. And I think Neumann is the last big thing that could screw it up for the GOP.

Hopefully, he's out of the picture by the ten o'clock news tonight.

[bedlamite]

It's still too early for final results, but as they come in they are posted here

[Monkeyleg]

Looks like the Democrats got even with one of their own, Senator Jeff Plale from the southeastern part of Milwaukee county. Too bad, as he was always a reliable vote for CCW.

It's 55/42 for Walker/Neumann. He shouldn't seriously think about a run as independent.

[Scout26]

Read into this what you will, but with 99% of the precincts reporting, Neumann, who finished a distant 2nd in the GOP primary for Governor with 39%, got more votes then BOTH Democrat candidates, combined.


I think that Rush Limbarugh has it correct, in that historically the pollsters have "favored" Democrat candidates by 5-9% on average in the pre-election surveys and polls.  

This could be the year the Dems really get creamed and make '94 look like, well, look like nothing.

[Scout26]

This is the year...you could pin a GOP button on a dog turd, and it stands a good chance of winning...

I think this may best describe the upcoming 2010 election.

[brimic]

Read into this what you will, but with 99% of the precincts reporting, Neumann, who finished a distant 2nd in the GOP primary for Governor with 39%, got more votes then BOTH Democrat candidates, combined.

There was also a huge last minute campaign to get democrats to cross over and vote in the republican primary for Neumann, and there isn't much interesting going on in the democratic party this year with the exception of Jeff Plale's seat and the Milwaukee sheriff's primary.

[AJ Dual]

Looks like the Democrats got even with one of their own, Senator Jeff Plale from the southeastern part of Milwaukee county. Too bad, as he was always a reliable vote for CCW.

It's 55/42 for Walker/Neumann. He shouldn't seriously think about a run as independent.

Yeah, I've been watching that race. And for the same reason, I know he's been a reliable vote for CCW too.

However, that district isn't exactly the east side either. Plale's success was arguably because he WAS a DINO, which played well with the socially conservative, but Democrat leaning blue collar area.

Could be a case of the Democrats winning the battle, but losing the war here.

And I'm glad to see Clarke won his primary handily for Sheriff. It's a really weird turn of events to see Republican challengers being the insider union-goon status-quo types for a seat like that.  

Overall though, I think the BIGGEST indicator of things to come is Rebecca Kleefisch winning the Lt. Governor's primary for the GOP over her RINO competitor. That really tells me that the electorate is "paying attention" this time.

[Monkeyleg]

Plale's district has to be one of the weirdest in the state. He has the East side (except the areas immediately east and west of UWM), Bay View, Cudahy, South Milwaukee, and Oak Creek. That's a delicate balancing act.

Another surprise was Julie Lassa getting to run for Obey's seat. Russ Decker was prepping himself for years for that seat. I wonder if he thinks it's going to go to a Republican, and so stayed out of it?

[StopTheGrays]

Has there been any guess-timates on how the make up of the state senate and legislature will change? Any chance the GOP will take them back?
 

[brimic]

Overall though, I think the BIGGEST indicator of things to come is Rebecca Kleefisch winning the Lt. Governor's primary for the GOP over her RINO competitor. That really tells me that the electorate is "paying attention" this time. 
 
 
 

I wonder if talk radio didn't have a HUGE impact on her winning, especially Mark Belling. I have hardly even heard of her campaign outside of a small Newspaper blurb about a month ago and the rino-whatshisnuts has been bombarding the media in his campaign.

[Monkeyleg]

Has there been any guess-timates on how the make up of the state senate and legislature will change? Any chance the GOP will take them back?

It would take a change of two senate seats and four assembly seats to put the Republicans in power. There are some seats that could easily go to Republicans.

I read that, if the Republicans take the governorship and both chambers, it would be the first time since the Great Depression that control of Wisconsin government changed parties in just one election cycle.

Let's hope for something historic.

[AJ Dual]

I think this is gearing up to be bigger than '94 nationwide. Hopefully WI gets decent enough coattails out of it.

And don't forget, Vote for Mr. Hanky! GOP candidate for District 105! 

[Monkeyleg]

And don't forget, Vote for Mr. Hanky! GOP candidate for District 105!

Huh?

[AJ Dual]

This is the year in WI you could pin a GOP button on a dog turd, and it stands a good chance of winning outside of Milwaukee's north side and Madison.

Mr. Hanky

[Monkeyleg]

Ugh.

[BMacklem]

I have my fingers crossed here that Republicans will have a major take-over all across Wisconsin in November, and it looks very promising.

Granted a LOT of people are waking up and starting to actually pay attention this election cycle, and I actually voted in my first primary here, instead of waiting to see who the candidates were, then looking them up and voting my concience (which has oddly not been Democrat).
Had to hold my nose in 08 for McCain, and saw where that got us, so now I'm paying a lot more attention myself, and actually doing primaries.

[Monkeyleg]

I was listening via the interweb to Mark Belling. He was saying that Walker only has $1 million left because of the primary battle, and he needs to raise at least $7 million more.

That's scary. I would imagine that Democrats nationally will be pouring money into Wisconsin to help Barrett.

[brimic]

Walker would only need to run one ad to win, this is how I see it:

A toilet being flushed somewhere in milwaukee during a rain storm, a camera tracks the fecal matter through a maze of sewer pipes until it emerges in lake michigan... then cut to a montage of toilets flushing all over the city with a voice over of Barrett pledging to stop sewage dumping during his mayorial campaign.

[AJ Dual]

I was listening via the interweb to Mark Belling. He was saying that Walker only has $1 million left because of the primary battle, and he needs to raise at least $7 million more.

That's scary. I would imagine that Democrats nationally will be pouring money into Wisconsin to help Barrett.

I like it.

Because it'll most likely be Democrat money WASTED.

Just the vibe I get here on the ground in WI, and you obviously don't want to count chickens before they're hatched but I cautiously think it's a done-deal for Walker to be the next Governor. How do I put it in quantifiable terms? Ah.. BETTING!

I would bet a month of my pay on Walker winning.

It would take an Act of God, or a dead hooker in Walker's trunk/Kiddie Porn on his computer etc. for him to not win IMO.

[cosine]

I paid attention today while driving down Wisconsin Ave. from 60th St to Hwy 100... 2-3 Barrett signs to a dozen Walker signs.