Author Topic: How should the west respond to Ukraine?  (Read 4449 times)

Nick1911

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How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« on: March 06, 2022, 09:19:33 PM »
In your opinion, how should the west respond to Russian troops invading Ukraine, and why?

I'll start with a few arguments:

1. The west must stand up to Putin now, because a failure to do so will lead to a bigger war in the future.  Appeasement didn’t work in 1939, and it won’t work now.  Ukrainians have a freely elected democracy which is being attached by a defacto dictatorship.  Mutually assured destruction works both ways, the western world not recognizing that will only further embolden Putin.  For some reason, the west seems to think that propping up Ukraine with money and weapons, while simultaneously waging a massive economic war is just fine, but direct involvement is a bridge too far.  We’re already directly involved.

2. While democracies should help each other when threatened, this is a very touchy situation in which the west must be careful.  We are at present doing all that we can without further escalation.  Ultimately, Ukraine may fall.  However the west can not risk the implications that come with further involvement.  By choosing not to play economic ball with Russia, the west is putting massive pressure on Russia, which will, in time, force a regime change.

3. NATO is a defensive alliance, and has not moral or legal obligation to interfere with the war of non-NATO states.  The US is not the world police, and does not need to lose lives and material here.  Further, directly interacting puts us in a shooting war with the Russians, which really could escalate to a nuclear war.  We do not need to be involved!  A lot of these problems are a direct result of our involvement, putting weapons right on the doorstep of Russia. Of course they are threatened, we didn’t like it too much when they did the same thing in Cuba.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2022, 09:55:43 PM by Nick1911 »

RoadKingLarry

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #1 on: March 06, 2022, 10:33:03 PM »
I'm concerned that the die has been cast. WW III is underway and we will soon see the *expletive deleted*it hit the fan with Russia and China as, if not direct allies at least defacto allies, against "the west" and primarily the US. It is my opinion that this is how the NWO comes to be with a totalitarian consolidation of money, power and control.
I'm possibly too optimistic.
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Bogie

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #2 on: March 06, 2022, 10:59:58 PM »
"Vlad, this is Donald. Tell ya what - things aren't looking too good for you long term. I'd suggest that you cut your losses, and I'll sweeten the deal... I've got a resort on Island To Be Named Later, and you and your family can move into the penthouse suites gratis. It has excellent security. What do you say?"
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Nick1911

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #3 on: March 06, 2022, 11:21:53 PM »
I'm concerned that the die has been cast. WW III is underway and we will soon see the *expletive deleted*it hit the fan with Russia and China as, if not direct allies at least defacto allies, against "the west" and primarily the US. It is my opinion that this is how the NWO comes to be with a totalitarian consolidation of money, power and control.
I'm possibly too optimistic.

Well, it could be.  Many people didn't really think WWII was a thing until Germany invaded France, well after Germany invaded Poland.  It's somewhat ironic, many of Hitlers earlier escapades were under the pretext of unifying the German people - in Austria or the Sudetenland.  Putin, by his own written commentary, considers the Ukrainian people as fundamentally Russian, and wishes to bring them back to Russia.

History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.

HankB

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #4 on: March 06, 2022, 11:59:04 PM »
During the Korean War, the Soviet Union didn't want to directly confront the USA.

So Russian "Volunteers" flew Mig jets out of Chinese bases against American forces in Korea. It was politically convenient for Truman to pretend this wasn't happening. Not only were the Chinese bases the jets were flying out of off limits to bombing or strafing, but even in the air, US aircraft weren't allowed to pursue their adversaries across the Yalu River dividing North Korea from China. Still, Russian pilots WERE flying directly against American pilots.

I don't know if Putin would "not see" direct NATO involvement the way Truman "didn't see" direct Soviet involvement. But if (formerly) Polish aircraft flew out of bases in western Ukraine and landed back there (instead of flying sorties originating and ending in a NATO country) there would be no actual direct NATO involvement.
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French G.

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #5 on: March 07, 2022, 12:47:19 AM »
Unfortunately it is number 1 unless Putin falls down the stairs or shoots himself in the back of the head a few times. This is a real damned if we do, damned if we don't deal. Our world order is changing. I know a lot of us here don't like empire America but we have been pretty good at it in the sense that we kept the ones that would do it way less benign contained. Our strength and reach has kept relative peace since WWII. Putin has just destroyed his country, erased decades of progress since the fall of communism. Superpowers don't go quietly. Big winner is going to be India or China. Might as well stop this guy now before it takes a lot more.
AKA Navy Joe   

I'm so contrarian that I didn't respond to the thread.

Ben

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #6 on: March 07, 2022, 08:29:11 AM »
This isn't about how the US gov is responding, but rather how US big business and big tech are responding. IMO, they are doing it wrong.

Who does killing internet, killing US financial services, and killing dumbass crap like Netflix hurt? It's not really hurting the Russian government at all. They have alternatives for finances and internet. It's hurting the Russian populace. Most of the US entities doing this are Trump haters. How would they have felt if foreign businesses did this to us while Trump was in charge because they didn't like something the Trump admin was doing? And who in the US would it hurt?

The only thing (IMO) this virtue signaling is doing is creating push/pull factors that are driving Russia that much closer to China. At this very moment, Russia and China are looking to lock Russia into the CCP's financial systems, thus bypassing US financial services. China can not only replace Russia's internet access, but likely create a viable global alternative to the internet that started in the US. And nobody in Russia gives a *expletive deleted*ck if they can't watch the crappy SJW LGBTQRS shows that make up 90% of Netflix's content.

The US is no longer the 500lb gorilla in the room for financial stuff like Visa and Mastercard. The majority global population can easily switch to China's system, and if we don't realize that there are viable competitors to things "the world has always relied on the US for", we are going to find ourselves in third world status well before the end of the century.
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DittoHead

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #7 on: March 07, 2022, 08:32:07 AM »
We are at present doing all that we can without further escalation.  Ultimately, Ukraine may fall.  However the west can not risk the implications that come with further involvement. 

I agree with this. We don't need to get directly involved, Ukraine isn't in NATO. What we are doing now is appropriate and pretty much the correct approach, support Ukraine and isolate Russia as much as possible.
In the moral, catatonic stupor America finds itself in today it is only disagreement we seek, and the more virulent that disagreement, the better.

Ron

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #8 on: March 07, 2022, 08:34:30 AM »
This a tar baby in large part of our own making. I'm not seeing any good options. The road hell is paved with good intentions. If this wasn't the intended outcome then our foreign policy establishment screwed up big time, again.

My opinion is we should try and bargain to save as much of western Ukraine as we possibly can. That probably means quietly acceding to Putins demands regarding the eastern half and Ukraine neutrality.

Fighting Russia with Ukraine as a proxy as we can see is a losing proposition, so far...

There are many in our government that are willing to fight Russia down to the very last Eastern European.
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

DittoHead

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #9 on: March 07, 2022, 09:02:42 AM »
quietly acceding to Putins demands regarding the eastern half and Ukraine neutrality.

The Obama/Crimea approach, a classic.
In the moral, catatonic stupor America finds itself in today it is only disagreement we seek, and the more virulent that disagreement, the better.

MechAg94

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #10 on: March 07, 2022, 09:43:14 AM »
https://youtu.be/RHxZyPdo3L0?t=160
FOX interview with Douglas Macgregor.  "Zalensky is a puppet"

His opinion is that Putin wanted or would have accepted a neutral Ukraine. 

Doesn't mean Putin is a good guy, just that there are no good guys in this one.  Pray for the Ukrainian people stuck in the middle. 
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

Ron

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #11 on: March 07, 2022, 09:46:44 AM »
The Obama/Crimea approach, a classic.
Like I said, you guys are happy to fight Russia down to the last East European. Throwing our troops into conflicts with no plan to win and get out is always in the neocon back pocket as well. 

If anyone gets a chance to watch the long University of Chicago lecture I posted from 2015 I'd be curious to hear a rebuttal. He acknowledged his thoughts were the minority position but a lot of what he forecasted 6 years ago has come to pass. 

The real play as I'm seeing it now would have been to take our time, not pushing the issue in Ukraine but slowly unofficially integrating them into the western economy. That of course ran the risk of Russia getting stronger in the meanwhile. NATO declarations of welcoming them into the organization eventually and talks of EU integration eventually has provoked this whole mess. This was either on purpose or out of incompetence. Either way it doesn't speak well of the establishment.

For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

AJ Dual

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #12 on: March 07, 2022, 09:50:27 AM »
It's not a "good" answer, but the best I've got.

Keep doing what we're doing. Isolate Russia economically with sanctions and the pull out everyone seems to be doing.

Give Ukraine weapons, logistics, and humanitarian aid. And hope it turns into a quagmire for Russia.
I promise not to duck.

MechAg94

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #13 on: March 07, 2022, 10:00:07 AM »
Like I said, you guys are happy to fight Russia down to the last East European. Throwing our troops into conflicts with no plan to win and get out is always in the neocon back pocket as well. 

If anyone gets a chance to watch the long University of Chicago lecture I posted from 2015 I'd be curious to hear a rebuttal. He acknowledged his thoughts were the minority position but a lot of what he forecasted 6 years ago has come to pass. 

The real play as I'm seeing it now would have been to take our time, not pushing the issue in Ukraine but slowly unofficially integrating them into the western economy. That of course ran the risk of Russia getting stronger in the meanwhile. NATO declarations of welcoming them into the organization eventually and talks of EU integration eventually has provoked this whole mess. This was either on purpose or out of incompetence. Either way it doesn't speak well of the establishment.
Where did you post that?  The other thread has gotten pretty long.
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fifth_column

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #14 on: March 07, 2022, 10:03:00 AM »
I'm rooting for Oceania. I hope Eurasia and Eastasia form a coalition so we can wipe them all out!

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Ron

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #15 on: March 07, 2022, 10:03:58 AM »
Where did you post that?  The other thread has gotten pretty long.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4&t=1s

He wasn't right about everything back then but things change in six years also.
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

Ron

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #16 on: March 07, 2022, 10:08:06 AM »
I'm rooting for Oceania. I hope Eurasia and Eastasia form a coalition so we can wipe them all out!

Patriotic Fervor Song

How about it, that's why I post crazy things like "maybe this was the plan all along". Firing up conflicts and wars helps consolidate power and keeps the populace on edge. Maybe I'm giving government(s) too much credit and it's incompetence.



For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

fifth_column

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #17 on: March 07, 2022, 10:17:49 AM »
How about it, that's why I post crazy things like "maybe this was the plan all along". Firing up conflicts and wars helps consolidate power and keeps the populace on edge. Maybe I'm giving government(s) too much credit and it's incompetence.

The incompetence of others is the main thing that keeps my paranoia in check. Honestly, I think Orwell was overestimating people's capability by having three main political rivals. It seems that the majority of people can't consider more than two sides to an issue. I'm not sure if that lack of capability is innate or a culturally-induced limitation.
Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will... The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of those whom they oppress. ― Frederick Douglass

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Pb

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #18 on: March 07, 2022, 10:25:21 AM »
Send the Ukrainians weapons and other supplies.

We should not fight Russia on behalf of the Ukrainians.

Talking about admitting them to NATO appears to be a huge mistake.  I don't we should have expanded NATO eastward at all.  Frankly, I'm not sure what the purpose of NATO is at all now.  I am leaning towards thinking the USA should leave NATO.  The Europeans can fight their own horrific wars.

Hawkmoon

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #19 on: March 07, 2022, 10:50:27 AM »

Talking about admitting them to NATO appears to be a huge mistake.  I don't we should have expanded NATO eastward at all.  Frankly, I'm not sure what the purpose of NATO is at all now.  I am leaning towards thinking the USA should leave NATO.  The Europeans can fight their own horrific wars.

I think "now" proves conclusively what the purpose of NATO is.

In 2014 I thought NATO should have helped Ukraine kick Russia out of Crimea. They didn't, and now we're getting a Mulligan.
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DittoHead

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #20 on: March 07, 2022, 10:51:19 AM »
NATO declarations of welcoming them into the organization eventually and talks of EU integration eventually has provoked this whole mess.

Your framing of this conflict has consistently portrayed Putin as lacking any agency whatsoever, and implicitly any responsibility. It's always him being provoked by others yet he is the one who is attempting to dictate what other countries can and cannot do. Why is Putin allowed to decree that Ukraine can't even consider joining NATO or the EU? He's the one drawing absurd "red lines" concerning the actions of other free countries, it's not everyone else's fault that those supposed lines are crossed when they are unreasonable and no one agreed to them to begin with.
In the moral, catatonic stupor America finds itself in today it is only disagreement we seek, and the more virulent that disagreement, the better.

Ron

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #21 on: March 07, 2022, 11:06:55 AM »
Your framing of this conflict has consistently portrayed Putin as lacking any agency whatsoever, and implicitly any responsibility. It's always him being provoked by others yet he is the one who is attempting to dictate what other countries can and cannot do. Why is Putin allowed to decree that Ukraine can't even consider joining NATO or the EU? He's the one drawing absurd "red lines" concerning the actions of other free countries, it's not everyone else's fault that those supposed lines are crossed when they are unreasonable and no one agreed to them to begin with.
Why? Because NATO is seen as an organization that was organized as the enemy of USSR/Russia.

You are 180 degrees wrong about me not ascribing agency to Putin. I've pointed out regularly that he has been stating in no uncertain terms that Russia will not allow Ukraine to fall into the wests orbit (NATO/EU). We don't have to like it but that is the reality. The west either ignored the reality or acted in a manor that they knew would provoke Russia into military conflict. The strategic significance of Ukraine to Russia is utterly missing from nearly ALL western media.

I'll give our side the benefit of the doubt that they ignored the reality thinking they could use financial leverage to keep Russia in line.

So the brainiacs running the west have managed to lose Ukraine completely and drive Russia, China and probably India into using something other than the dollar for trade amongst themselves. Great job guys. 
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

AZRedhawk44

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #22 on: March 07, 2022, 11:07:16 AM »
Send the Ukrainians weapons and other supplies.

We should not fight Russia on behalf of the Ukrainians.

Talking about admitting them to NATO appears to be a huge mistake.  I don't we should have expanded NATO eastward at all.  Frankly, I'm not sure what the purpose of NATO is at all now.  I am leaning towards thinking the USA should leave NATO.  The Europeans can fight their own horrific wars.

There's nothing wrong with treaties.  And the US/European trade system inherent to Western life and philosophy is the sole reason for the existence of NATO.  As much as I don't like the US as the policeman of the world, the US has every right to engage in international treaties and defense pacts.  Every obligation to do so.

What I earnestly want, is the US to stand on the following principles:
1.  Defense of the lives of US citizens
2.  Defense of the rights of US citizens
3.  Defense of the natural rights of all human beings as espoused in the Declaration of Independence
4.  Defense of property and trade of US citizens around the world (not to be confused with intrusionary/intimidation based squatting and interference)

There's a hierarchy here, and for the US to act, say, on #3 or #4, then there needs to be an articulable and imminent threat to #1 and #2 to risk American lives in war on foreign soil.  And it's important that #3 be above #4 for any action to be moral.

In regards to this quagmire?  That's a tough knot to unravel.

I'm confident that the Ukrainian revolution in 2014-2015 that put pro-Western parties in power was certainly CIA backed.  I see no difference between that, and the Donbas and other separatist action in the west of Ukraine whose name I cannot remember, which are both fomented by Moscow in interest of Russia.

Putin is looking at this in two facets.
1.  Territorial defense.  In a classic ground invasion, he wants a front that is as small as possible to make it easier to defend.  The Warsaw Pact era pushed such a defensive line all the way to Germany.  If Ukraine joins NATO that line stretches from the Baltics to the Black Sea and is indefensible.
2.  Economic interest.  Russia has a near-monopoly on oil sales to Europe.  If Ukraine begins operating its own oil interests, it can use oil transport infrastructure that the Soviet Union built and paid for, to compete with Russia for European market share. 

I think that the pre-20th century perspective on territorial control is effectively dead.  Territory is a liability, when all is said and done.  It's nothing but infrastructure demands, "peasants" to appease, and territory to monitor.  Resources certainly matter, but those can be accessed even on foreign territory through trade and development agreements and private property rights.  Putin's economic perspective is in some ways in conflict with Western notions, but then again, a lot of US foreign interventions have been couched in counter-terrorism but have involved US investment in resource development in the offending country.

Ultimately I see Russia as having breached the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, when it comes to addressing Ukraine today.  However, the Budapest Memorandum effectively has no teeth, and does not obligate the US to participate in defense of Ukraine under the current conditions.  France and China supposedly granted Ukraine security assurances related to the document, but not the US, or Germany/Poland/NATO/anyone else.  I don't know what those security assurances entail.

I don't see this invasion as a threat to the US, as sad and distasteful as it is.  It's not a genocide/extermination event; we don't have Jews in gas chambers or racial concentration camps or anything like that.  It's a territorial annexation with the intent of gaining economic control/leverage.  The market it impacts is Europe, not the US.

Europe has a population of about 750 million people.  Russia accounts for perhaps 150 million, and Ukraine about 40 million.  There's 400-500 million people living on the European continent that are members of NATO without counting the US.  They have several of the strongest economies in the world and a strong manufacturing base.

Europe can handle this if they want to.  The US should sit back and be the MAD deterrent, holding the NATO charter prominently.  If Russia introduces nukes into a Europe-led ground war, then it's time for the US to get involved as the NATO treaty dictates.  If Europe is the primary party that wants Ukraine into the EU (and possibly NATO) then Europe can handle it.  No offense has been committed thus far that requires the US to get involved in a Europe/Russia conflict.
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dogmush

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #23 on: March 07, 2022, 11:21:27 AM »
You are 180 degrees wrong about me not ascribing agency to Putin. I've pointed out regularly that he has been stating in no uncertain terms that Russia will not allow Ukraine to fall into the wests orbit (NATO/EU). We don't have to like it but that is the reality. The west either ignored the reality or acted in a manor that they knew would provoke Russia into military conflict. The strategic significance of Ukraine to Russia is utterly missing from nearly ALL western media.

I'll give our side the benefit of the doubt that they ignored the reality thinking they could use financial leverage to keep Russia in line.

So the brainiacs running the west have managed to lose Ukraine completely and drive Russia, China and probably India into using something other than the dollar for trade amongst themselves. Great job guys.

That's not Putin's decision to make.  Ukraine is a sovereign country.  He tried a puppet government, and it got ousted by our puppet government, which in turn was ousted by the current government.  They can decide if they want to be closer to the west or not, and do in large part to Russia's stance as shitty neighbor they have decided they'd like to be closer to the rest of Europe.

Putin making demands he has no right to make, then being aggressive when those demands are not met, then starting a war when those demands are pushed back against actively is how we got here.  Neither the Ukraine nor the rest of Europe are under any obligation to cater to Russia's insecurities, or more truthfully: Russia's energy export ambitions.

It also remains to be seen if Ukraine is lost.  A week ago I'd say they were, but that's the thing about war, it doesn't always turn out as predicted.

I tend to think that the west should continue giving Ukraine all the explody toys it can use, and should continue, or do more, in isolating the Russian government from money and influence over Europe.  There is a real risk that might nudge Russia into a bigger war of desperation, much the way the oil embargo did to Japan, but if they're that close to going all in, I suspect it's just a matter of time until they do it anyway.

Pb

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Re: How should the west respond to Ukraine?
« Reply #24 on: March 07, 2022, 11:27:56 AM »
In 2014 I thought NATO should have helped Ukraine kick Russia out of Crimea.

What do you mean by "helped"?  I don't understand.  Do you mean get into a war with Russia?  If we did, it would probably kill millions of Americans.