Prepare for President Trump

[Angel Eyes]

Political science professor predicts a Trump victory:

https://www.sbstatesman.com/2016/02/23/political-science-professor-forecasts-trump-as-general-election-winner/

Donald Trump has a 97 percent chance of defeating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of defeating Bernie Sanders in the general election, according to Norpoth’s formula.

Sounds a bit like reading tea leaves, but ...

Norpoth’s primary model works for every presidential election since 1912, with the notable exception of the 1960 election. These results give the model an accuracy of 96.1 percent.

The 1960 election was unusually close:

[wmenorr67]

Kennedy did win in 1960.

[Pb]

The media hasn't started gleefully pulling out Trump's skeleton's yet... they are waiting until he gets nominated.

I highly doubt Trump will win. 

[Angel Eyes]

I highly doubt Trump will win. 

A few months ago, I would have agreed.  Now I'm not so sure.

[Perd Hapley]

Kennedy did win in 1960.

 

[Scout26]

There is a huge enthusiasm gap with Hillary.  Bernie's FSA will sit home if he's not the nominee.    Even with a highly contested D primary, the turnout numbers for the D's are 10-25% below what they were 4 and 8 years ago. 

Plus Hillary is the candidate of the status quo.  After 8 years of anyone, they American people are ready for change, not more of the same.   Another reason why Bernie is doing so well.

Those that think Hillary is a lock this election cycle are sadly mistaken.  About the only way she wins is if something happens and Obama can't finish his term, then she can campaign to finish his "legacy".   

[just Warren]

The lefties would turn out for Michelle though. Imagine if Hil and Bern go down and Obama suggest FLOUTUS up a candidate...

Boom. Eight more years of them in the WH.

However I expect the Republic might just dissolve if that were the case. I think Trump might also be a solvent.

[wmenorr67]

Quote

Norpoth’s primary model works for every presidential election since 1912, with the notable exception of the 1960 election. These results give the model an accuracy of 96.1 percent.

The graph showed Kennedy winning by .2% which not sure the final numbers he did win that election.

[makattak]

The graph showed Kennedy winning by .2% which not sure the final numbers he did win that election.

I think he's saying the model predicted Nixon would win, but actual results were a Kennedy win in what was, effectively, a tie.

[Hutch]

President.  Trump.  Presidentdonaldtrump. presidenttrump. President Donald. I I just can't get the hang of any of these appellations.

The Republic has faced other turbulence, and remains, by some definition.

My junior Senator, who was developing some chops with me, has endorsed The Donald.  Guess Cruz has piss d off too many of his colleagues, which is not, in and of itself, a bad thing.  At least not until Jeff Sessions goes against you in a State you really need to carry.

Damn...

[KD5NRH]

Wasn't there some future-based sci fi comedy where Trump was or had been President? 

[brimic]

Wasn't there some future-based sci fi comedy where Trump was or had been President? 

Idiocracy?

[TechMan]

Idiocracy?

You sir win one (1) Internets for the day.

[makattak]

Wasn't there some future-based sci fi comedy where Trump was or had been President? 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZtparSnQhFc&t=0m29s

[Pb]

I would rather Trump be president than Hillary, but that's like saying I'd rather eat sun-baked roadkill than dog excrement.  I'm pretty sure the delusional Trump voters are going to give us Hillary though.

[Fitz]

I would rather Trump be president than Hillary, but that's like saying I'd rather eat sun-baked roadkill than dog excrement.  I'm pretty sure the delusional Trump voters are going to give us Hillary though.

Yeah.

"I'd rather get kicked in the dick every day for 8 years than get stabbed in the dick everyday for 8 years."

[makattak]

I would rather Trump be president than Hillary, but that's like saying I'd rather eat sun-baked roadkill than dog excrement.  I'm pretty sure the delusional Trump voters are going to give us Hillary though.

So far, Trump has been immune to the media's attacks. It will be interesting to see if he continues to be as the election rolls one.

(Incidentally, I'm fairly convinced Trump is already the nominee. Tomorrow will likely seal it, looking at polling. I'm still voting for Cruz, but it looks as though the people aren't interested in someone who actually has a record to compare to their rhetoric. Wait, didn't we already have a president with little to no record that spouted a bunch of platitudes that were what people wanted to hear?

Well, at least there's precedent, then.)

[KD5NRH]

Wait, didn't we already have a president with little to no record that spouted a bunch of platitudes that were what people wanted to hear?

Heck, we did pretty well with and actor and motivational speaker who had more experience stumping for failed candidates than governing California.

[makattak]

Heck, we did pretty well with and actor and motivational speaker who had more experience stumping for failed candidates than governing California.

Err... he was Governor of California for 8 years... That's not negligible experience and record.

[230RN]

So far, Trump has been immune to the media's attacks. It will be interesting to see if he continues to be as the election rolls one.

(Incidentally, I'm fairly convinced Trump is already the nominee. Tomorrow will likely seal it, looking at polling. I'm still voting for Cruz, but it looks as though the people aren't interested in someone who actually has a record to compare to their rhetoric. Wait, didn't we already have a president with little to no record that spouted a bunch of platitudes that were what people wanted to hear?

Well, at least there's precedent, then.)

Well, you have your good pie-in-the-sky and you have your bad pie-in-the-sky.

[wmenorr67]

Heck, we did pretty well with and actor and motivational speaker who had more experience stumping for failed candidates than governing California.

Err... he was Governor of California for 8 years... That's not negligible experience and record.

I hope he just has his punctuation or wording off a little.

[AJ Dual]

Err... he was Governor of California for 8 years... That's not negligible experience and record.

And in terms of Reagan.. he openly discussed his evolution to becoming a conservative, although just as much, if not more it was that the Democrats left him, than he left the Democrats.

I mean, look at JFK, no way he'd fit in the party with his positions now.

[HankB]

Kennedy did win in 1960.

Didn't that actually take the Chicago graveyard vote?

[HeroHog]

Who's the Libertarian candidate this time? I can't believe I'm actually considering giving Billery a chance by not voting for Rump but I can only vote for the lesser of two evils for so long, ya know?

[Firethorn]

Those that think Hillary is a lock this election cycle are sadly mistaken.  About the only way she wins is if something happens and Obama can't finish his term, then she can campaign to finish his "legacy".

That puts Biden in as President, and I don't think Hillary can especially promise to complete his legacy.  Especially with (googles) only a 46% approval rating, I don't think that Obama has any particularly moving 'legacy' to complete.  John F Kennedy was still a first term president when he was killed, leaving far more in the way of 'legacy' to complete than a lame duck term limited president.

Who's the Libertarian candidate this time? I can't believe I'm actually considering giving Billery a chance by not voting for Rump but I can only vote for the lesser of two evils for so long, ya know?

Gary Johnson.  I'm probably going to vote for him, I'm in a 'safe' republican state.