Author Topic: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)  (Read 3971 times)

White Horseradish

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I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« on: June 16, 2017, 02:50:29 PM »
http://www.cnn.com/2017/06/16/politics/trump-cuba-policy/index.html

Aside from "*expletive deleted*ck you, Obama", what exactly is this supposed to accomplish?
Political tags - such as royalist, communist, democrat, populist, fascist, liberal, conservative, and so forth - are never basic criteria. The human race divides politically into those who want people to be controlled and those who have no such desire.

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BobR

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #1 on: June 16, 2017, 03:07:36 PM »
Cuba Libre!!!!!!!!!!!

It won't do much. As far a cancelling over their human rights violations maybe he should be looking toward the east if he wants to see some real violations. I hope it didn't bring back the wet foot/dry foot policy. Too many Cubans have lost their lives trying to get across that 90 miles of ocean so they could get one foot onto land.

bob

RoadKingLarry

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2017, 03:50:56 PM »
I'm of two minds when it comes to Cuba.
While I fully agree that the Castro family and their regime are pretty much straight up evil the regular people aren't part of the problem. I think we should keep relations open and allow travel to give the Cubans as much "'Merica" as we can manage.

Interestingly enough a group of my friends just returned from a trip to Cuba. They sailed from Florida and back on a Hunter 36. I was invited but couldn't get off work.
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.

Samuel Adams

DittoHead

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2017, 04:03:11 PM »
I think we should keep relations open and allow travel to give the Cubans as much "'Merica" as we can manage.

This is the most effective way to change Cuba in my opinion. Show the people what they're missing out on.
In the moral, catatonic stupor America finds itself in today it is only disagreement we seek, and the more virulent that disagreement, the better.

Ben

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2017, 04:06:37 PM »
While I fully agree that the Castro family and their regime are pretty much straight up evil the regular people aren't part of the problem. I think we should keep relations open and allow travel to give the Cubans as much "'Merica" as we can manage.

I would agree, except they've had a good influx of European countries, Canada*, and many other prosperous and free peoples and even businesses establishing a presence there, and somehow there has not been a lot of change regarding the regime.

Then of course one could argue that our embargo really never did any good given that so many other wealthy nations continued business as usual over that timeframe.


* While we may make fun of them here for being socialist, they are in fact free and prosperous societies that should have a similar influence to Cubans that we would expect interaction with the US to have. It still seems there is a very "have and have not" society there regardless (the "primo free medical" argument (which is another topic) aside).
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Perd Hapley

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2017, 04:14:23 PM »
Sorry to bring this up again, but it won't matter once the federal judiciary knocks it down.

Why did I bother to vote?  ???
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Monkeyleg

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #6 on: June 16, 2017, 04:42:15 PM »
Sorry to bring this up again, but it won't matter once the federal judiciary knocks it down.

Why did I bother to vote?  ???

I'm waiting to see if you're right, Fistful. Sadly, I think you will be.

Mannlicher

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #7 on: June 18, 2017, 03:10:14 PM »
one of the obvious problems with 'normalizing' relations with Cuba, is that the Cuban military is the biggest beneficiary.  The tourist dollars are not really filtering down to the man on the street. 
I am for blocking all trade, blocking all immigration, and keeping those commie bastards bottled up in their worker's paradise.

grampster

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #8 on: June 18, 2017, 04:25:50 PM »
As far as the general population goes, I think we have more "commie bastards" here in the US than in Cuba.
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TommyGunn

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #9 on: June 18, 2017, 04:31:09 PM »
The trouble with the question of whether we should "normalize" relations with Cuba is that we're not likely to have much effect on Cuba so far as the welfare of the citizens.
Cuba uses  a peso as a unit of money.  But they have a dual system; a govt-only peso, which actually has value, and a ..."peon" peso, one that is used for the workers, and it's worth bupkis.  Thus the Cubans can be kept in poverty conditions no matter how hard they work or how inventive or productive they are, while the communists who are in charge can be pretty darn well off in comparison.
That has to stop.  There are many other things that must happen to cause the Cubans to join the free world but the dual peso system is a central problem.
MOLON LABE   "Through ignorance of what is good and what is bad, the life of men is greatly perplexed." ~~ Cicero

Firethorn

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #10 on: June 19, 2017, 12:30:40 AM »
I would agree, except they've had a good influx of European countries, Canada*, and many other prosperous and free peoples and even businesses establishing a presence there, and somehow there has not been a lot of change regarding the regime.

Of course one could argue that our embargo really never did any good given that so many other nations continued business as usual over that timeframe, and didn't want to press for the changes we want.  Though at this point I'd want to ask what changes should we be shooting for?

Keeping it generic, I have some points:
1.  Realistically speaking, we weren't going to see real change until Castro was gone.  He had too much control.  Our failures to overthrow or assassinate him just cemented it.
2.  Overseas tourism and business is merely step 1.  You say it's a 'good influx', and I don't disagree, but I say that the influx from the US could be orders of magnitude more. 
3.  Part of that is that Canada and Europe would actually have to use their presences there as leverage to enact change.  To my knowledge, they have not done this.
4.  Our embargo, especially at this point, hurts ourselves more than it hurts them.  It even provides them with talking points to keep doing what they've been doing
5.  You're looking at decades of work once we 'open up'.  Look at it like being a drug dealer - first we have to get them addicted.  Used to steady trade and what not.  No, I don't advocate 100% openness day one.

Then, once they've had a good taste, then we start with the carrot and stick approach - always careful, mind you.

Basically, find issue that is relatively minor to them and major to us, but still "mild".  Press them on the issue a bit, threatening to reduce trade and tourism even as we'll increase trade and tourism amounts if they bend on the "minor issue". 

Etc...

And yes, Castro's living family will get richer off of this.  So what?  If we can nudge them over into being rich businesspeople rather than dictatorial rulers, we'd have accomplished something wouldn't we?




* While we may make fun of them here for being socialist, they are in fact free and prosperous societies that should have a similar influence to Cubans that we would expect interaction with the US to have. It still seems there is a very "have and have not" society there regardless (the "primo free medical" argument (which is another topic) aside).
[/quote]

Ben

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #11 on: June 19, 2017, 09:44:41 AM »

5.  You're looking at decades of work once we 'open up'.  Look at it like being a drug dealer - first we have to get them addicted.  Used to steady trade and what not.  No, I don't advocate 100% openness day one.


Yet shouldn't the ability to by a BMW get them addicted? They have had the opportunity to do that for decades. I recall there are BMWs (just my one example of Western prosperity) in Cuba, but the ability to get one is quite limited. That could go for a European coffeemaker or whatever, if you're looking for smaller items of convenience as a "shiny object of capitalism and freedom".

Any of the countries that currently have good relations with Cuba could be doing business there if there was a market. That market would need to include the factory that makes the coffeemakers so that Cubans could make a good wage to buy stuff like coffeemakers.

Perhaps you're right that it would take the power of the US to "force" a good import/export market and the philosophy of capitalism, but with dozens of prosperous countries interacting with Cuba for decades, that seed should have already been planted, and likely was, but has still been kiboshed by their government.
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Firethorn

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #12 on: June 19, 2017, 05:44:28 PM »
Perhaps you're right that it would take the power of the US to "force" a good import/export market and the philosophy of capitalism, but with dozens of prosperous countries interacting with Cuba for decades, that seed should have already been planted, and likely was, but has still been kiboshed by their government.

I think you didn't really understand me. 

Okay- on BMW and such.  I'm not talking about Cubans being able to buy stuff from elsewhere.  That is largely because they are poor as hell.  I'm more looking at them selling stuff.  Tourism, fruit, vegetables, etc...  This helps Cubans be less poor and more able to buy things like imported cars.  Yes, the Oligarches will take the lion's share of the money.

Second - note that I didn't specify spreading capitalism, philosophy of, but that we would need to decide what we're trying to spread.  Human rights and democracy were the two I was thinking of.

As for the seed idea, I mentioned that said countries would need to actually push for change, and until recently there have been more countries pushing against change(Venezuela and Hugo).

Ben

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #13 on: June 19, 2017, 05:59:09 PM »
I think you didn't really understand me. 


Okay, but buying vs selling is kinda like my import/export comment, isn't it? If we take Cubans buying stuff out of the equation, instead of buying European coffeemakers, they could be selling Cuban coffeemakers to lots of countries, but they're not. I just don't see a US market making that much of a difference in Cuba's economy. Their economy has the chance to thrive now working with many countries, which is one avenue to human rights and democracy, but it is being artificially suppressed by the entrenched regime.

It seems like one of their only "thriving" exports is medical care to wealthy tourists. I don't know where all that money goes, but it doesn't seem to be going to infrastructure (outside of tourism) or improving the lives of the average Cuban. Heck, they can't even get the internet to the outside world.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

Scout26

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #14 on: June 19, 2017, 06:12:55 PM »
I think you didn't really understand me. 

Okay- on BMW and such.  I'm not talking about Cubans being able to buy stuff from elsewhere.  That is largely because they are poor as hell.  I'm more looking at them selling stuff.  Tourism, fruit, vegetables, etc...  This helps Cubans be less poor and more able to buy things like imported cars.  Yes, the Oligarches will take the lion's share of the money.

Second - note that I didn't specify spreading capitalism, philosophy of, but that we would need to decide what we're trying to spread.  Human rights and democracy were the two I was thinking of.

As for the seed idea, I mentioned that said countries would need to actually push for change, and until recently there have been more countries pushing against change(Venezuela and Hugo).

THere's your first mistake.  The Oligarchs take ALL of the money.  Cuba has a two peso system.  The "peasant" peso, which is what the people use.  Then the "Convertible" Peso.  Which is what the tourists use (after exchanging their hard currency), and can only be used in Tourist zones.  And it is completely illegal for "the People" to be in possession of "Convertible" pesos.

Besides, there's nothing for them to buy other then staples.
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


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Firethorn

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #15 on: June 19, 2017, 07:38:01 PM »
Okay, but buying vs selling is kinda like my import/export comment, isn't it? If we take Cubans buying stuff out of the equation, instead of buying European coffeemakers, they could be selling Cuban coffeemakers to lots of countries, but they're not.

Again, opening markets and getting trade set up is only step 1.  Once you have them used to the extra money from trade, tourism, services, and such, then you use the stick of restricting trade combined with the carrot of even more trade to influence them.
THere's your first mistake.  The Oligarchs take ALL of the money.

Well, good thing that is who we are targeting, right?

Greed is pretty universal.  Faced with a 'minor concession' or a few less million in their bank account, I expect them to take the money more often than not.

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #16 on: June 19, 2017, 08:50:00 PM »
Again, opening markets and getting trade set up is only step 1.  Once you have them used to the extra money from trade, tourism, services, and such, then you use the stick of restricting trade combined with the carrot of even more trade to influence them.

Well yes, on this we agree. I want to see them to the point that Cuban millennials are blowing dough on fidget spinners. Then we've got them where we want them. :)
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Scout26

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #17 on: June 20, 2017, 07:01:26 AM »
Again, opening markets and getting trade set up is only step 1.  Once you have them used to the extra money from trade, tourism, services, and such, then you use the stick of restricting trade combined with the carrot of even more trade to influence them.
Well, good thing that is who we are targeting, right?

Greed is pretty universal.  Faced with a 'minor concession' or a few less million in their bank account, I expect them to take the money more often than not.

I thought the people were the target??  So they could see the benefits of capitalism.  They still get the regular wage.  IIRC, everyone in Cuba makes the exact same amount.  Doctors make the same as the guy sweeping the streets.  The people working in the "tourist" zones get nothing extra.  And if they are caught with the "convertible" pesos, it's off to jail for them. 

And while the Oligarchs are greedy, they aren't sharing.  And a few million less from us won't matter much to them.  They've got plenty stashed away in Swiss and Cayman Islands bank accounts.
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.

Firethorn

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #18 on: June 20, 2017, 07:40:28 AM »
I thought the people were the target??  So they could see the benefits of capitalism.

Well, that might be YOUR goal.  Remember I said "Though at this point I'd want to ask what changes should we be shooting for?"

The common people probably already know the benefits of capitalism, even if they don't necessarily realize it.  They just don't have the capital to actually improve things.  

Quote
And while the Oligarchs are greedy, they aren't sharing.  And a few million less from us won't matter much to them.  They've got plenty stashed away in Swiss and Cayman Islands bank accounts.

Never asked them to share, at least not at first.  And you're mistaking the nature of greed if you really think that a "few million less" won't bother them.  

Really, I think that given who else we trade with, we need to ask WHY we're still boycotting Cuba, and end the boycott if it's not some critical reason, which to be honest I don't think there is one.

After that, well, given some time the US and US markets will be dominating Cuba's trade.  We're just too rich and too close.  Once we're a dominant economic factor in the country, and yes, making the oligarchs stinking rich, then we can use that to apply political influence.  Once we've decided what influence we need.

Also, doing some research, the oligarches weren't able to keep every bit of cash/dollars to themselves - the workers, especially in the tourist industry, managed to get ahold of extra resources.

They wouldn't need the two peso system if they were capable of keeping 100%

Quote
IIRC, everyone in Cuba makes the exact same amount.  Doctors make the same as the guy sweeping the streets.

You don't remember correctly, or are at least out of date.  Raul Castro has been liberalizing the economy, letting jobs such as taxi driver move from being a government position to a licensed independent business.  Factory workers earn ~400 pesos(non-convertable), doctors ~700.  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Cuba
Quote
In 2010, Fidel Castro, in agreement with Raúl Castro's reformist sentiment, admitted that the Cuban model based on the old Soviet model of centralized planning was no longer sustainable. They encouraged the creation of a co-operative variant of socialism where the state plays a less active role in the economy and the formation of worker-owned co-operatives and self-employment enterprises.

Baby steps, but important ones.  We're winning, without even playing.  If we're willing to play, we could 'win' much faster.

Like I said, it looks like they are learning capitalism and adjusting.  We should probably reward them by lowering sanctions even more, stop cutting off our own nose in regards to them.  We'd both benefit.

Scout26

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #19 on: June 20, 2017, 07:45:48 AM »
Ummm, what does Cuba offer us ??

And I'm not enamored of the idea of just handing Piles of Cash to Communist murderers.


Again, Europeans and Canadians have been throwing money at Cuba for years and nothing has changed (other than the Castro's getting richer).  I'm not even seeing the first baby step.
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.

Firethorn

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #20 on: June 20, 2017, 02:57:34 PM »
Ummm, what does Cuba offer us ??

Beach front property for tourism and such.  Agricultural products such as sugar and even tobacco, though I've heard it sucks these days, and I disapprove of smoking in general.  Trained doctors.  Medical tourism could be huge.  Visit the Caribbean and get your surgery done on the cheap!

Quote
And I'm not enamored of the idea of just handing Piles of Cash to Communist murderers.

1.  We're not just 'handing' it to them, they still have to do the business activities to earn said piles of cash
2.  At this point they're no more murders than the POTUS and congress, really.  We're looking more at the kids of the revolutionaries than the revolutionaries themselves. 
3.  Getting them to stop killing people would be part of encouraging them to respect human rights, and one of the first things I'd apply pressure on using the influence I gain from trade.

Quote
Again, Europeans and Canadians have been throwing money at Cuba for years and nothing has changed (other than the Castro's getting richer).  I'm not even seeing the first baby step.

Repeating yourself won't change my point that while Europeans and Canadians have been trading with Cuba for years, they haven't used said trade to apply pressure to change. 
Step 1:  Gain influence through trade
Step 2:  Use said influence to achieve goals.

And just reading the Wikipedia, I see baby steps.  The whole convertible peso thing is a baby step.  Allowing private businesses in limited areas is a baby step.  Allowing entrepreneurs is a baby step.

You have a rather steeper definition of 'baby step', perhaps?

Hell, I didn't realize this before, but even Fidel Castro himself admitted that a centrally managed economy wasn't cutting it in his last years.

Mannlicher

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #21 on: June 20, 2017, 05:23:27 PM »
normalizing relations with Cuba offered nothing to America.  There was no plus for us at all, other than some cigar smokers being able to buy their smokes.  I don't see where being able to head down there as a tourist serves our best interests.   The hard currency helps no one but the elite.  They can get that from their Canadian friends.
We seem to be quick to champion doing the right thing, doing what is best, for everyone else on the planet, except of course, doing what's best for our own Citizens.

Scout26

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #22 on: June 20, 2017, 08:06:04 PM »
Beach front property for tourism and such.  Agricultural products such as sugar and even tobacco, though I've heard it sucks these days, and I disapprove of smoking in general.  Trained doctors.  Medical tourism could be huge.  Visit the Caribbean and get your surgery done on the cheap!

1.  We're not just 'handing' it to them, they still have to do the business activities to earn said piles of cash
2.  At this point they're no more murders than the POTUS and congress, really.  We're looking more at the kids of the revolutionaries than the revolutionaries themselves. 
3.  Getting them to stop killing people would be part of encouraging them to respect human rights, and one of the first things I'd apply pressure on using the influence I gain from trade.

Repeating yourself won't change my point that while Europeans and Canadians have been trading with Cuba for years, they haven't used said trade to apply pressure to change. 
Step 1:  Gain influence through trade
Step 2:  Use said influence to achieve goals.

And just reading the Wikipedia, I see baby steps.  The whole convertible peso thing is a baby step.  Allowing private businesses in limited areas is a baby step.  Allowing entrepreneurs is a baby step.

You have a rather steeper definition of 'baby step', perhaps?

Hell, I didn't realize this before, but even Fidel Castro himself admitted that a centrally managed economy wasn't cutting it in his last years.


Ummm, they are not selling any property, beach front or otherwise.

American sugar growers are already protected by insanely high tariffs.

Cuban Tobacco has been ruined by Communism.  Ask anyone who's had one.  The cache' is gone.

Trained Doctors.  I'm not seeing a shortage and in fact India and Pakistan seem to be sending us their excess.   And most US insurance companies don't pay claims outside the US.  And last I checked, most of the world comes to the US to get procedures done.  Otherwise, many, many, many other Caribbean countries would already be doing that.   (most just stick to training doctors. e.g. Grenada.)

And you keep talking about "leverage" and "influence".  No, we would not have any.   If we did, then they would have been working to get back in our good graces for the last 50 years.  And that's not going to change no matter how much money we throw at them.  Does Canada and Europe have any influence ??  No.


Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.

Firethorn

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #23 on: June 20, 2017, 08:28:27 PM »
Ummm, they are not selling any property, beach front or otherwise.

They don't need to be selling it, merely renting.

Quote
American sugar growers are already protected by insanely high tariffs.

And yet Cuba can, at times, beat the prices anyways.  Besides, I think the US sugar tariffs are wrong.

Quote
Cuban Tobacco has been ruined by Communism.  Ask anyone who's had one.  The cache' is gone.

And you repeat what I said why?  I already said it sucks these days.

Quote
Trained Doctors.  I'm not seeing a shortage and in fact India and Pakistan seem to be sending us their excess.   And most US insurance companies don't pay claims outside the US.  And last I checked, most of the world comes to the US to get procedures done.  Otherwise, many, many, many other Caribbean countries would already be doing that.   (most just stick to training doctors. e.g. Grenada.)

And India and Pakistan sending us their excess doesn't indicate a shortage how?  We can just get doctors from yet another location.  I was just throwing some ideas out there.  It's up to them to capitalize on it.

US Companies not paying claims outside the US - Have you forgotten that a rather substantial segment of our population doesn't have insurance?  That others have rather insane copays?  There are people who fly to Singapore for medical procedures because it's substantially cheaper with or without insurance.  Sometimes, with arrangement, insurance companies WILL pay because it's outright cheaper for people to do it.  How much?  Over a billion USD worth in 2012.

Quote
And you keep talking about "leverage" and "influence".  No, we would not have any.   If we did, then they would have been working to get back in our good graces for the last 50 years.  And that's not going to change no matter how much money we throw at them.  Does Canada and Europe have any influence ??  No.

You're not making a good argument, you know.  The two just don't fit.  That we don't currently have leverage or influence currently with the 50 year embargo is something I completely acknowledge.  It's a core part of my argument, remember?  You have not linked said lack of influence, when we've done the equivalent of hide in our house and refuse to so much as talk with Cuba, with a continuing lack of influence with the embargo ended, you know, when we actually start talking and trading with our neighbor.

Or are you such that you think that a neighbor that you never talk to, never talks to you, and avoids you at every opportunity will have the same influence on you as the neighbor who comes over every so often, talks shop with you, looks after your kids, borrows your lawnmower, etc?

And yes, the other countries do have influence.  They just aren't exploiting it all that much.  This is a classic gripping hand problem.  You know, where you have a clod of dirt or something that you're holding.  Grip too tightly and it just oozes past your fist.  Hold it gently and you have more control than holding it tightly. 

The (virtually) complete embargo is a very tight fist.  As a result, all our influence oozes out.  As we've seen when we actually relax our controls a touch, they DO respond.  Because we require great leaps of change, without even assurance that we'd relax even if they did, hell, we've given counter-evidence by NOT relaxing our controls as they transition, ever so slightly, towards a more free market, that nothing they can do would satisfy us, so why even try?

So yeah, we don't currently have any leverage.  We've broken that plank.  That's what we need to rebuild first.

Let me ask you this:  What would you consider a "baby step" in the right direction?  Would they consider it a 'baby step'? 

Scout26

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Re: I don't get it. (Cuba policy)
« Reply #24 on: June 20, 2017, 08:41:01 PM »
Ok, what have they done for us since Obama opened things up.  What baby step did they make in our direction??
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