Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: Ben on April 05, 2021, 08:35:05 AM
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I have been reading a lot more stories lately regarding China making some kind of move on Taiwan. More stories than I remember in recent history. I'm wondering if they will attempt, not necessarily a textbook invasion, but some intrusion into Taiwan? Seems like from this and other stories I've been reading lately, they think that they can now get away with stuff like this because they won't get more than a harshly worded letter from the current US administration.
Certainly AFAIK, Biden didn't make the same kind of phone call to Taiwan that Trump did when he first got in.
Admittedly, the Epoch Times has a strong anti-CCP bias, but I have been reading stories similar to this elsewhere as well:
The Chinese communist regime is accelerating its plans to invade Taiwan, an expert warns, as Beijing ratchets up military maneuvers against the island.
Twenty Chinese military aircraft—including four nuclear-capable H-6K bombers, 10 J-16 fighter jets, two Y-8 anti-submarine warfare aircraft, and a KJ-500 airborne early warning and control aircraft—entered Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) on March 26, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense. It was the largest incursion ever reported by the ministry.
Taiwan’s ADIZ, located adjacent to the island’s territorial airspace, is an area where incoming planes must identify themselves to the island’s air traffic controller.
The incursion caps off a significant increase in hostility by Beijing against Taiwan since 2020. Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen, re-elected last January, has taken a hard line against threats posed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), while the island has deepened its cooperation with the United States—prompting the regime to escalate its warmongering towards the island.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/beijing-accelerating-timeline-for-possible-invasion-of-taiwan-expert-warns_3759688.html
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I think Taiwan's days are numbered. It would not surprise me at all if China makes a serious move against the island during the next four years. Especially so considering how they have the Biden family in their pockets.
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^^^ agree ^^^ and the current administration will do nothing about it.
Russia will eventually finish off Ukraine and likewise will be Biden’s response.
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Z-man just posted on this subject.
https://thezman.com/wordpress/?p=23394
While it appears we are treaty obliged to protect Taiwan, nobody asked me first :laugh:
I am opposed to going to war with China over Taiwan.
Intuitively, I feel it isn't going to happen any time soon.
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Z-man just posted on this subject.
https://thezman.com/wordpress/?p=23394
While it appears we are treaty obliged to protect Taiwan, nobody asked me first :laugh:
I am opposed to going to war with China over Taiwan.
Intuitively, I feel it isn't going to happen any time soon.
Many people don't know we're obliged under treaty to protect Taiwan. I don't think it matters; Ponysoldier President Biden will most likely allow it, as earlier posters suggested. :mad:
I'm not at all enthusiastic about such a war, but do we honor our treaties? If not our word is utterly worthless in the international arena.
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. . . I'm not at all enthusiastic about such a war, but do we honor our treaties? If not our word is utterly worthless in the international arena.
Diminishing the prestige and honor of the USA in the international arena is probably part of the instructions Manchurian Candidate Biden has received from his Chinese owners. (Sadly, hased on Biden's actions so far, there may actually be an element of truth in this . . . =( )
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My concern is we would send a carrier group over for show to be a big target with its hands tied so it couldn't respond.
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My concern is we would send a carrier group over for show to be a big target with its hands tied so it couldn't respond.
Yep. Put me in charge and if forced to have an international response every SSGN, SSN, CG, and DDG we have empties their tomahawk magazines on night one. B-52s likewise. B-2s, space weapons whatever. If it floats or flies it dies. All the headquarters, all the air defenses. Send word that round two is nuclear. No one effing around limited response.
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Yep. Put me in charge and if forced to have an international response every SSGN, SSN, CG, and DDG we have empties their tomahawk magazines on night one. B-52s likewise. B-2s, space weapons whatever. If it floats or flies it dies. All the headquarters, all the air defenses. Send word that round two is nuclear. No one effing around limited response.
If you were in charge, they wouldn't attack.
https://youtu.be/k9DO26O6dIg?t=105
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If you were in charge, they wouldn't attack.
https://youtu.be/k9DO26O6dIg?t=105
Acceptable, but thinking more along the Gary Oldham lines in the Professional.
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Acceptable, but thinking more along the Gary Oldham lines in the Professional.
That is basically what Trump did to the Putin's mercs in Syria.
It was a parade of curb stompings. Every damn thing in our arsenal that flies got a turn to play in that death orgy.
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That is basically what Trump did to the Putin's mercs in Syria.
It was a parade of curb stompings. Every damn thing in our arsenal that flies got a turn to play in that death orgy.
And we don’t hear much about Wagner taking over Syria now... Well, to be fair they are all over Syria
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"Benny, bring me everyone.."
"What do you mean, everyone?
"EVERYWWWOOOOONEEEEE!!!!
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A friend of mine has relatives in Taiwan, one of which works for the U.S. gov't. According to them, the mood is very tense there. Chinese planes are doing low fly-bys regularly and of course Taiwan's air force is scrambling jets to intercept, ratcheting up the tension and increasing the likelihood of an "incident."
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:facepalm: [barf]
WATCH: John Cena begs for China’s forgiveness after he dared to call Taiwan a country
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2021/05/25/watch-john-cena-begs-for-chinas-forgiveness-after-he-dared-to-call-taiwan-a-country/
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It is my (only slightly tinfoil) theory that had COVID-19 not escaped a little early China's plan was to arrange a "sorta bad" pandemic in Taiwan alongside their agents causing civil strife. Then the CCP could slide in as peacekeepers with health resources and a vaccine and just........stay.
Shitty lab protocols messed with the plan a little bit, but the Chinese are nothing if not patient.
I don't think they'll straight up invade, as that opens them up to armed conflict with the west. They'll orchestrate some crisis that allows them to swoop in with a veneer of acceptability to the rest of the world, spend 5 or 10 years "helping" out the poor Taiwanese, then there will be an "election" that votes to rejoin the mainland. The west can pay lip service to our treaties, and China get's their lost island and the South China Sea
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^^^This has the ring of plausibility to it. If push comes to shove, there is not going to be Global Thermonuclear War over Taiwan. At least I hope.
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^^^This has the ring of plausibility to it. If push comes to shove, there is not going to be Global Thermonuclear War over Taiwan. At least I hope.
Like there would never be a shooting war over a pair of dinky little islands in the South Atlantic, off the coast of Sud America?
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Like there would never be a shooting war over a pair of dinky little islands in the South Atlantic, off the coast of Sud America?
Assuming you're referencing the Falkland islands? I read a bit about the political conditions in Argentina that lead them to taking the islands, pretty interesting.
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I was referring to the Falkland Islands war. And it turned into quite a nasty little war for awhile. Yes, the Argentinian military junta miscalculated rather spectacularly.
There are some interesting stories that came out of that little incident. Like the longest aerial bombing run in history.
Of course, Taiwan doesn't have a big brother backing them up, and China is a bit more of an adversary than Argentina.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7DVy3D2eglE
Lindybeige did this video about Chile covertly helping out the British with radar coverage and intelligence.
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Full disclosure, after working closely with Taiwanese for a few years I'm basically a Taiwan fanboy. I think I have more in common with the Taiwanese than many Americans. Granted I'm interacting with the upper crust Taiwanese. Then again I think the whole island of Taiwan is somewhat the upper crust that manged to flee the CCP.
The Taiwanese are so on guard against the Chinese they literally kept COVID out. It's clear that they are/were ALREADY prepared for China to seed a pandemic in Taiwan and they had a level of seriousness about this way before COVID actually got big. It's pretty impressive/scary they live under that level of threat and impressive they are actually prepared for it. Plus they obviously are getting good, unfiltered intel from the mainland that we couldn't hope to get, which is a poor reflection on our intelligence services IMO.
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It appears that China has been ramping things up in the background of all the other things going on in the world. Even our current administration is concerned.
https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-military-activity-taiwan-threatens-region
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Even our current administration is concerned.
Of course they're concerned, been a good 6 months since the Chinese bought a painting and they're starting to get worried. May have to offer them a 2 for 1 sale.
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Yep. Put me in charge and if forced to have an international response every SSGN, SSN, CG, and DDG we have empties their tomahawk magazines on night one. B-52s likewise. B-2s, space weapons whatever. If it floats or flies it dies. All the headquarters, all the air defenses. Send word that round two is nuclear. No one effing around limited response.
I find your ideas to be intriguing and I would like to subscribe to your newsletter.
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Should give Taiwan a warm and fuzzy feeling
U.S. President Joe Biden said on Saturday the United States does not support the independence of Taiwan, after Taiwanese voters rebuffed China and gave the ruling party a third presidential term.
Earlier in the day, the Taiwanese ruling Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) presidential candidate Lai Ching-te came to power, strongly rejecting Chinese pressure to spurn him, and pledged both to stand up to Beijing and seek talks.
"We do not support independence..." Biden said, when asked for reaction to Saturday's elections.
I kind of know what he meant but sometimes just shut up
U.S. does not support Taiwan independence, Biden says
https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-us-does-not-support-taiwan-independence-2024-01-13/
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Yep. Put me in charge and if forced to have an international response every SSGN, SSN, CG, and DDG we have empties their tomahawk magazines on night one. B-52s likewise. B-2s, space weapons whatever. If it floats or flies it dies. All the headquarters, all the air defenses. Send word that round two is nuclear. No one effing around limited response.
Just target the Three Gorges dam on the Yang Tze River. That's supposedly Taiwan's default response if invaded with no hope of victory. It'll kill tens of millions of civilians downstream, to say nothing of the unparalleled destruction it will wreak on China's industrial capacity. Hundreds or even thousands of factories destroyed.
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Let's see - Biden signaled that he wasn't much concerned if Russia staged a "minor incursion" into Ukraine . . . which was followed by a major invasion.
Biden took Hamas off the terror watch list and started sending $$$ to Gaza . . . and Hamas attacked Israel.
Now he's saying he doesn't favor Taiwan independence . . . hmmm, I wonder what signal Xi will think he's sending?
Senility/stupidity doesn't explain Biden's actions any more, they're too consistently wrong for that.
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Just target the Three Gorges dam on the Yang Tze River. That's supposedly Taiwan's default response if invaded with no hope of victory. It'll kill tens of millions of civilians downstream, to say nothing of the unparalleled destruction it will wreak on China's industrial capacity. Hundreds or even thousands of factories destroyed.
Man, if you want to see the mouth breathers scream "War Crimes!" take out that damn and drown a couple million peasants.
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Man, if you want to see the mouth breathers scream "War Crimes!" take out that damn and drown a couple million peasants.
They'll do that if Taiwan puts up any fight at all against their ChiCom buddies.
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I saw this the other day. There are some qualifiers, but it is interesting.
China's military purge: Are Chinese missiles filled with water?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYyBqnV2h9s
this also popped up on a search.
US Intel Shows Flawed China Missiles Led Xi to Purge Army
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKnVgcqR2Ac
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Not saying some of the above isn't true but such talk always reminds me of the way the US mil talked about the Japanese mil before the war and in not a good way.
Then we started getting our ass handed to us and found out the hard way their night fighting was way beyond ours, their torpedoes actually worked and were far in advance of our own, their pilots were not only flying AC that were in many way more advance than ours but they were far better trained. Even saw stuff about how they would make for poor pilots because their eyesight is poor, oh wait!. And not to mention their carriers ops was more advance, while we operated carriers in groups of 1 or 2 in the early war they routinely operated carriers in groups of 4 or even 6 and far more capable of coordinating massive strikes. It took us two to three years of hard learning to match that.
Just saying such above talk worriers me in that we'll let our guard down and I hate in putting much stock in much of the info we from the media about their mil.
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Let's see - Biden signaled that he wasn't much concerned if Russia staged a "minor incursion" into Ukraine . . . which was followed by a major invasion.
Biden took Hamas off the terror watch list and started sending $$$ to Gaza . . . and Hamas attacked Israel.
Now he's saying he doesn't favor Taiwan independence . . . hmmm, I wonder what signal Xi will think he's sending?
Senility/stupidity doesn't explain Biden's actions any more, they're too consistently wrong for that.
That's official US policy and has been for decades. The United States does not acknowledge Taiwan as an independent nation. The US has a treaty to defend Taiwan from invasion from the mainland CCP. Effectively, the US acknowledges the KMT as the preferred government of a united China. At least at the time of the treaty's creation.
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Not saying some of the above isn't true but such talk always reminds me of the way the US mil talked about the Japanese mil before the war and in not a good way.
Then we started getting our ass handed to us and found out the hard way their night fighting was way beyond ours, their torpedoes actually worked and were far in advance of our own, their pilots were not only flying AC that were in many way more advance than ours but they were far better trained. Even saw stuff about how they would make for poor pilots because their eyesight is poor, oh wait!. And not to mention their carriers ops was more advance, while we operated carriers in groups of 1 or 2 in the early war they routinely operated carriers in groups of 4 or even 6 and far more capable of coordinating massive strikes. It took us two to three years of hard learning to match that.
Just saying such above talk worriers me in that we'll let our guard down and I hate in putting much stock in much of the info we from the media about their mil.
Are you kidding? The ChiCom Navy trembles at the awesome might of our Littoral Combat Ships! (Sometimes it's hard to distinguish Chinese trembling in fear from Chinese trembling in laughter - it's a cultural thing.)
On the other hand, at a recent Tank Biathlon in Russia, a road wheel simply fell off one of the Chicom tank entries . . . so we're not the only ones with problems in the military.
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Instead Of Traditional Warfare, Chinese Military Will Now Be Trained To Shout Wrong Pronouns At American Troops
https://babylonbee.com/news/instead-of-traditional-warfare-chinese-military-will-now-be-trained-to-shout-wrong-pronouns-at-american-troops
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Despite these supposed problems, I believe the Chinese could still shove us back into our part of the eastern Pacific should we come to blows.
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The PLA and the PLAN have severely compromised and/or untested logistics capabilities on top of the questionable performance of their frontline equipment. Recent conflicts have shown that numbers alone are not sufficient to overcome a lack of parts, food, and ammo in the face of high tier NATO equipped militaries.
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Despite these supposed problems, I believe the Chinese could still shove us back into our part of the eastern Pacific should we come to blows.
I think there's an excellent chance they've compromised our Commander In Chief to a greater or lesser degree, who in turn has been degrading command staff. I think this will result in command indecisiveness that SEVERELY compromises our warfighting capability. (Note the difficulty we had in shooting down a lousy Chinese balloon - not the mechanics of it, but the top-down mismanagement.)
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The PLA and the PLAN have severely compromised and/or untested logistics capabilities on top of the questionable performance of their frontline equipment. Recent conflicts have shown that numbers alone are not sufficient to overcome a lack of parts, food, and ammo in the face of high tier NATO equipped militaries.
I think that is close to where I stand. Russia showed that their corruption severely compromised their military depth and strength. Their frontline guys were well equipped, but the stockpiles of supplies and ammo ran out a lot faster than anyone expected. China might be a little better, but they have to cross a lot of ocean to get to their targets. That adds a whole lot more issues. And China has more trade vulnerabilities if they start a war.
China has a big navy, but I think most of their ships are not capable of operating outside the South China sea. Many have a range limit of 1000 miles from what I hear. I figure they have the ability to hit anyone within a short range of China, but I doubt they could extend their power beyond that first island chain that includes the Philippines and Taiwan.
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China has a big navy, but I think most of their ships are not capable of operating outside the South China sea. Many have a range limit of 1000 miles from what I hear. I figure they have the ability to hit anyone within a short range of China, but I doubt they could extend their power beyond that first island chain that includes the Philippines and Taiwan.
Discussions here have changed my mind regarding China's blue water capabilities (as in, I now agree they are less of a threat than I thought). I do still believe they would be a force to be reckoned with within sight of China's shores. They have seemed to focus on homeland (or homewater) defense in both strategy and the fleet their shipyards are pumping out, as well as coastal land defense.
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There are 25 fast attack boats assigned to COMSUBPAC.
While we don't know how the Seawolf's will do in the real world yet we have a fair amount of data on how the 688 and 688i's do against the level of tech in the PLAN's Type 93's, and I would bet a fair bit of money we spend a lot of time trying to figure out what the PLAN's ASW detection thresholds are.
I wouldn't bet the farm that the PLAN will survive in a meaningful fashion very long after hostilities start. Certainly once they get off the South China Shelf and into a thousand feet of water or more.
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Discussions here have changed my mind regarding China's blue water capabilities (as in, I now agree they are less of a threat than I thought). I do still believe they would be a force to be reckoned with within sight of China's shores. They have seemed to focus on homeland (or homewater) defense in both strategy and the fleet their shipyards are pumping out, as well as coastal land defense.
I agree they wouldn't be a push over. If it things went full out (non-nuclear), I am sure we would lose some ships. They have enough subs to be dangerous and enough anti-ship missiles to be a severe threat.
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Sorry for interfering in your conversation, just a small clarifying question: why are the Americans discussing with such interest a territory that is almost 8 thousand miles away from them? The picture is just to demonstrate the distance, sorry...
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Sorry for interfering in your conversation, just a small clarifying question: why are the Americans discussing with such interest a territory that is almost 8 thousand miles away from them? The picture is just to demonstrate the distance, sorry...
Probably for much the same reason Russians have discussed with interest Venezuela, Syria, and the Central African Republic, Libya, etc. Big countries with the ability to project power tend to have economic interests in smaller countries around the world which can unfortunately sometimes result in a military interest.
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If things heat up significantly in the Middle East and things continuing to go poorly in Ukraine, I can see how China might be interested in causing some kind of ruckus in the Pacific to make it a three front war for the US. The thing that holds China back I think is that they don't really want direct involvement in a kerfuffle, and there really aren't any proxies to use in that area, maaaybe North Korea but not really.
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Probably for much the same reason Russians have discussed with interest Venezuela, Syria, and the Central African Republic, Libya, etc. Big countries with the ability to project power tend to have economic interests in smaller countries around the world which can unfortunately sometimes result in a military interest.
To be fair, it's only 5000 miles from Hawaii, and we still get a little twitchy about militarized Asian countries and Hawaii.
But the real answer is many Americans are concerned about the expansion of Chinese influence and control over critical manufacturing bases (some of which are in Taiwan), and we are concerned that an Chinese invasion of Taiwan would lead to direct military confrontation between us and China.
For these reasons we tend to keep an tensions in the area. The same holds true of North Korea's saber rattling.
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The USA should have never discouraged the ROC from getting nuclear weapons.
Some nuke subs might discourage an invasion.
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China is seeing record unemployment in the younger generation and a few other in country problems. That might be enough to make them do something if they start getting much unrest from the peasants.
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Just finished watching this and at the end Jon Parshall notes that when visiting many Pacific Island battle sites that he's noticed that many wartime airfields in the Pacific including Tinian and Palau are being renovated due to current political tensions
The Invasion of Tinian with Jon Parshall-Episode 317
https://youtu.be/xEyGN1AJvEM
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Why China’s Man-Made Military Islands Are a Disaster
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JiqoILR-uY
I saw this today. The meat of it doesn't start until 6 to 8 minutes in. Saying the artificial islands China built around the South China sea are starting to degrade and sink for various reasons.