Author Topic: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?  (Read 22319 times)

ilbob

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #50 on: March 24, 2009, 03:00:34 PM »
Ilbob was pointing out the RLC as some form of reasonable alternative to RP and people like him. WHich struck me as ironic.
RLC is not a candidate or a party. Its a movement to reform the RP from within.

I am well aware that Dr. Paul came to the conclusion that the goofy people and failed tactics of the LP made it non-viable so he helped form the RLC. I give him a lot of credit for that. 

I also give him a fair amount of credit for campaigning to the end. If nothing else, maybe he gave the next underdog some encouragement, and some things to look at not to do the next time.
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oldfart

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #51 on: March 24, 2009, 03:54:32 PM »
Time hasn't proven anything.  RP was right all along.  Many people were telling themselves "that can't happen here" though.  Now we know it CAN happen here.  Strangely, there are still those who seem to have locked themselves in a closet, stuck their fingers in their ears and are singing, "La-la-la-la-la..., I can't hear you."  One day the door will be torn open and they'll see that the house they used to live in is gone.

Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #52 on: March 24, 2009, 06:33:31 PM »
Hey micro, did you have a point when you posted that big M3 chart?

MicroBalrog

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #53 on: March 24, 2009, 07:11:12 PM »
Hey micro, did you have a point when you posted that big M3 chart?

Yeah, you can't really have deflation when the money supply is off like a crazed rocket.
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Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #54 on: March 24, 2009, 07:37:50 PM »
Is M3 the money supply?

MicroBalrog

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #55 on: March 24, 2009, 08:20:28 PM »
Is M3 the money supply?

Several types of money supply exist. M0 is the supply of money that actually exists in greenbacks. M3 is all the forms of money that circulate, which is far greater.
Destroy The Enemy in Hand-to-Hand Combat.

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Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #56 on: March 24, 2009, 09:24:48 PM »
I am quite familiar with the various money aggregates.  None of them are a satisfactory description of the money supply.

For our purposes here, we can conceptualize the money supply into two parts: "base money", which is the stuff the Fed prints and gives to the banks, and "credit money", which is what the banks produce through fractional reserve lending.  The money supply is the sum of base money and credit money.  It's what's available and spendable at any given moment.   

Now, is the money supply shooting up like a crazed rocket? 

Credit money clearly isn't.  Credit is way, way down.  Crazy down.  Scary down.  We're seeing debt destruction on a massive scale.

The Fed is trying to compensate for lost credit money by pumping out lots and lots of base money.  But they can't print fast enough to make up for the destruction of credit we're seeing right now.  This mess is too big, even for them.

It's actually even worse than that.  All that base money the Fed is printing is simply being sequestered in bank vaults without ever entering the economy.  It isn't spendable, it isn't in circulation.

So credit money is way down.  Base money is up when viewed on paper, but is flat for all practical purposes.  The money supply, the sum of the two, is down overall.

That's deflation.

Perd Hapley

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #57 on: March 25, 2009, 01:13:38 AM »
I'm reminded of that line H&K fans used to have.

"I'm not an H&K fan, I'm a 'whoever makes the best firearms in the world' fan".

When another politician appears with views like Ron Paul's, I'll be backing him too.

In fact, if we can manage to get a young, handsome guy with those views to run for office, I'll be shifting my support to him. :D


Actually, no.  You're just so used to Ron Paul being lambasted that you're seeing it when it's not even there.  Time to bring the threat level back down a couple of notches.   =)
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roo_ster

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #58 on: March 25, 2009, 08:17:31 AM »

Actually, no.  You're just so used to Ron Paul being lambasted that you're seeing it when it's not even there.  Time to bring the threat level back down a couple of notches.   =)

<Can't...help...self...>

Does the Paulian DEFCON equivalent consist of various less or more geeky hirsute scifi characters?
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roo_ster

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makattak

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #59 on: March 25, 2009, 08:38:57 AM »
<Can't...help...self...>

Does the Paulian DEFCON equivalent consist of various less or more geeky hirsute scifi characters?


Oh my...

Sir! Threat is IMMINENT! We've just upgraded from Cylon to Khan!!!!
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

MicroBalrog

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #60 on: March 25, 2009, 09:03:17 AM »
In the meanwhile we have this, this, and this..  And Ron Paul would be worse, how?
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Gewehr98

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #61 on: March 25, 2009, 09:31:37 AM »
Yes, MB, the U.S. has officially turned to *expletive deleted*it, based on just those three examples.

Do yourself and us a favor - get over here, get that education, become an American, get yourself or Ron Paul elected to the White House, and fix it all for us, ok?

Jeebus.

"Bother", said Pooh, as he chambered another round...

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MicroBalrog

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #62 on: March 25, 2009, 09:49:04 AM »
To attack my statement on the basis of my current geographical location is the very zenith (or nadir) of ad hominem. My point does not become less valid because I say it. Longeyes, who is an American citizen, has made the same points I make.

My point is very simple and you have so far not replied to it. I have stated it repeatedly through this thread. Now it is possible that I have made a mistake somewhere, and have not made myself clear enough.

The current order of things is as follows:

1. Government has been growing in size and scope throughout the Western World, since the early 20th Century. In America in particular this process is often attributed by historians to the New Deal, but some go as far back as 1913. This is not solely an American, but a transnational issue, unfortunately, in evidence throughout the Western world.

2. This growth has been directed at least in part by various social reformers, who have created several institutions to back up their vision of society. There exist various groups of people - unions at major industries, public employees, and others - who have a vested interest in maintaining and expanding the current social order.

If we oppose this growth, there remain three opportunities:

A. A purely-defensive strategy. This is flawed because even with leaders who do absolutely nothing to actively encourage it, the system continues to grow - as it did under the two last Republican Presidents.  The problem with it that you do not mount a principled opposition to the changes your opponent wants, and once a leftist wins an election (as one is bound to do, sooner or later - and one just did) he's going to swing in there and start expanding programs and spending like crazy.

B. A long-term gradualist strategy. This is flawed both because it can be overthrown by the leftist guy from example A who will NOT be a gradualist and because it will take generations upon generations.. The advantage of this is that it is simpler and more likely to succeed.

C. Radicalism. Get in there and start breaking *expletive deleted*it and taking names. The advantage of this is that once you establish a radical change in the status quo you create new interest groups, which will have an interest in maintaining the new order that you establish. This is difficult to accomplish, but the dividends are enormous. I am in favor of pursuing B while trying C whenever possible, because I don't want to be 97 years old when it's all over.

Obviously, because of the influence America has the world over culturally and economically, the system falling over in America would be a 'shot heard around the world' yet again. The whole damn house of cards would go under in a decade or two, from Brussels to Toronto.
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roo_ster

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #63 on: March 25, 2009, 10:56:01 AM »
Oh my...

Sir! Threat is IMMINENT! We've just upgraded from Cylon to Khan!!!!

http://www.khaaan.com/

Also, would James Tiberius Kirk qualify as hirsute, given that his luxurious mane is the product of (possibly alien) technology?



More seriously, I think MB explains the options pretty well. 

I guess I would describe myself as a "B" guy willing to exploit "C" opportunities, were they to manifest.  I haven't seen any such opportunity, Ron Paul included.  If RP had been able to keep a lid on his wackier supporters and a lid on his wackier ideas, he might have been that opportunity. 

Like BHO, talk centrist on the trail, with a little of his true agenda as spice, or maybe using the equivalent of "dog whistle" phrases for the liberty-minded to tip them off.

What we need is not a new Reagan, but a liberty-minded policritter who holds the values of liberty close to his heart (and vest) while having the ability to communicate like a Reagan and also have Reagan's sunny disposition.

Ron Paul was not that man.  At best, he was a John the Baptist / Goldwater type.

One thing you can bet on, is the atheists and religiophobes are going to be disappointed with someone who is both liberty-minded and effective.  This theoretical person will not win unless he can convince the 25-35% of fundies/conservative religious folk to jump on the minimalist gov't bandwagon.  Even RP was ardently pro-life. 
Regards,

roo_ster

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MicroBalrog

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #64 on: March 25, 2009, 02:17:09 PM »
I think there are two caveats here:

1.The important thing is not that the policritter in question fit some ideological mold to T. The important thing is that he must be willing to engage and destroy the social institutions upon which the system rests, even if he's not going to implement every inch of a given ideology. Ideologies are always limited anyhow.

2.While it is disadvantageous to a certain degree to be supported by social outcasts, it's useful to remember that ANY C-candidates will always attract them. If you're going to oppose the status quo for real, you're going to attract the people who feel (rightly or wrongly) that they've been harmed by it. The important thing is to utilize these forces wisely.
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ilbob

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #65 on: March 25, 2009, 03:56:03 PM »
2.While it is disadvantageous to a certain degree to be supported by social outcasts, it's useful to remember that ANY C-candidates will always attract them. If you're going to oppose the status quo for real, you're going to attract the people who feel (rightly or wrongly) that they've been harmed by it. The important thing is to utilize these forces wisely.
If you want to win an election, it is important to hide them, at least until the election is over. Just the way things are.
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zahc

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #66 on: March 25, 2009, 06:01:11 PM »
Time has proven RP correct only in showing that authoritarian leftist extremism continues to be inefficient and evil, just as it has been for all of history.
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AZRedhawk44

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #67 on: March 25, 2009, 06:41:33 PM »
I am quite familiar with the various money aggregates.  None of them are a satisfactory description of the money supply.

For our purposes here, we can conceptualize the money supply into two parts: "base money", which is the stuff the Fed prints and gives to the banks, and "credit money", which is what the banks produce through fractional reserve lending.  The money supply is the sum of base money and credit money.  It's what's available and spendable at any given moment.   

Now, is the money supply shooting up like a crazed rocket? 

Credit money clearly isn't.  Credit is way, way down.  Crazy down.  Scary down.  We're seeing debt destruction on a massive scale.

The Fed is trying to compensate for lost credit money by pumping out lots and lots of base money.  But they can't print fast enough to make up for the destruction of credit we're seeing right now.  This mess is too big, even for them.

It's actually even worse than that.  All that base money the Fed is printing is simply being sequestered in bank vaults without ever entering the economy.  It isn't spendable, it isn't in circulation.

So credit money is way down.  Base money is up when viewed on paper, but is flat for all practical purposes.  The money supply, the sum of the two, is down overall.

That's deflation.

But... what about defaulted debt?

Does defaulted debt no longer exist as a future credit on an accountant's balance sheet?  Some accountant?  Somewhere?  Even a collection agency, or money owed to FedGov at a future date from stimulus recipients?

We've undergone significant degrees of defaulted debt in the last few years.  If we're calling it "all gone," then you're right:  credit money + base money is stagnant.  If, on the other hand, that defaulted debt is still active somewhere in the system, then money supply = credit money + base money + new stimulus money.  That gives inflation.

But, even if we call it "all gone," the actual value of the collateral still exists even though the debt is magically gone.  Thus, money is created.  Inflation.

Regarding the OP premise:  RP is not a messiah nor a prophet.  He's just a guy that noticed a trend, with a couple of kooky ideas to accompany a couple of good ideas.  His awareness of the trend was timely, but unwelcome by those caught with hands in the cookie jar.

RP is not the solution, because the man just isn't the leader we're looking for.  But, his ideas found resonance and will be adopted slowly by more charismatic politicians.  Hopefully he will have an influential voice in 2010 or 2012.  Time will tell.
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Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #68 on: March 25, 2009, 07:36:34 PM »

We've undergone significant degrees of defaulted debt in the last few years.  If we're calling it "all gone," then you're right:  credit money + base money is stagnant.  If, on the other hand, that defaulted debt is still active somewhere in the system, then money supply = credit money + base money + new stimulus money.  That gives inflation.

But, even if we call it "all gone," the actual value of the collateral still exists even though the debt is magically gone.  Thus, money is created.  Inflation.
When a borrower defaults the loan goes away.  The collateral asset remains, but collateral isn't money.  You can't spend a foreclosed house like you can spend a wad of greenbacks.

Defaults are a comparatively small part of the picture.  The big idea is that everyone is shunning debt, everyone fro corporate juggernauts to the little old lady living next door.  Banks are afraid to lend, too, due to the heightened risk of default and their own precarious financial situation.  Loans are being paid down, and very few are being taken out to replace them.

And that just scratches the surface.  It doesn't even begin to delve into the credit market mess.  Securitization?  "No bid"?  Mark to market?  Saywhathuh?

Anyway, the point is that debt is vanishing left and right.  The credit money that came with it is vanishing too, even if the collateral remains.  Debt destruction is a good thing, I think, but it does mean that the money supply is shrinking (at least for now).
« Last Edit: March 25, 2009, 09:19:31 PM by Headless Thompson Gunner »

roo_ster

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #69 on: March 25, 2009, 08:15:59 PM »
Nobody wants to loan money?

I would amend that to, "Nobody wants to lend money to those who oughn't be lent money."

I can still get an auto loan.  I can still refinance my house.  Thing is, I have good credit and employment.

There is money to be lent. 

I think too many folks believe the policritters and those who stand to benefit from continued fiscal incontinence by the gov't.  "Of course the sky will fall if you don't loan me and Nearbankruptcorp a buttload of money."
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roo_ster

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Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #70 on: March 25, 2009, 09:15:17 PM »
I agree with you that the politicians are overstating the problems.   I also agree that there is still some credit available for people who are sure to repay. 

There's not nearly as much credit available as before.  And it's not available to nearly as many people as before.  And even among people who could get credit, much fewer are choosing to accept it.

Regardless, it doesn't matter all that much whether people ought to receive a loan or not.  What matters is whether they do receive a loan.  The money multiplier works the same whether your credit score is 800 or 400.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2009, 09:27:16 PM by Headless Thompson Gunner »

MicroBalrog

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #71 on: March 26, 2009, 05:05:30 PM »
Quote
If you want to win an election, it is important to hide them, at least until the election is over. Just the way things are.

Well, it's never going to be possible to hide them completely. Even with moderate leaders like McCain the media will try to paint them as extremists.

For me, I think I'm mature enough not to care. I'd rather vote for a guy that wants to do what I think should be done even if he has weird guys attached to him rather than to vote for a guy who opposes individual liberty because he's all nice and tie-wearing. Maybe that's just me.
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Perd Hapley

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #72 on: March 26, 2009, 05:50:23 PM »
You're "mature enough"?  So, if someone chooses to nominate candidate A rather than B, because they think A stands a better chance in the general election, that is a question of maturity?  ???
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MicroBalrog

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #73 on: March 26, 2009, 05:58:51 PM »
You're "mature enough"?  So, if someone chooses to nominate candidate A rather than B, because they think A stands a better chance in the general election, that is a question of maturity?  ???

Put it this way. I think that to oppose a person because of how their random supporters dress, and instead support a guy who is in opposition to all your actual views is counterproductive. I get people voting for Fred Thompson instead of Ron Paul because they like Fred's views more. I don't get people who claim to be 'libertarians' but voted (or supported) McCain or Rudy in the primaries based on RP having wacky supporters. I think this sort of thing distracts from the actual substance of the process.

P.S. FWIW I think maturity is overrated anyway, but that's a whole other topic.
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Perd Hapley

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Re: Has time proven Ron Paul correct?
« Reply #74 on: March 26, 2009, 06:58:06 PM »
It is one thing to be in total agreement with Ron Paul, but then vote for McCain because you don't like Wookie suits. 

It is another thing to agree with Ron Paul, but judge that he is unelectable because of his odd supporters.

It is a third thing to mostly agree with Ron Paul, but judge that he is unelectable because of a few of his own quirks, in addition to his odd supporters.

It is a fourth thing to find neither McCain nor Paul very satisfactory, but judge that Paul is unelectable because of a few of his own quirks, in addition to his odd supporters.

The first option might be counterproductive or immature.  If you find any of those people, let us know.

It might be a tad immature to pretend that WookieSuit/Troofer weirdness is the only reason that anyone here opposes Ron Paul.  Those of us who aren't on board for Ron Paul have given our reasons; economics, national security, etc. 

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