Author Topic: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard  (Read 2986 times)

Ned Hamford

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Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« on: March 04, 2007, 09:39:55 PM »
I was just thinking about fiat money and whatnot, and it occured to me that while I think the gold standard is a better system, I see no viable way to return to it.  Ignoring all the turmoil the transformation would entail within our own country, wouldn't the fiat money systems of the rest of the world consume the gold supply in short order?  Rather like universal love and peace, it seems like something that could only occur if everyone honestly took part at the same time... which will never happen.  I'm sure there are many much more informed than I on the topic, any thoughts?
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The Rabbi

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #1 on: March 04, 2007, 11:47:14 PM »
It's not even a  better system.  The US experienced far more and severe downturns under the gold standard than without it.
The issue with returning is where do you peg the price of gold to equal dollars. The old system was $35/oz.  Obviously that wouldn't work.  If you peg it too high, then it is no better than fiat money.  Too low and you lose all your reserves.
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richyoung

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #2 on: March 05, 2007, 04:21:38 AM »
It's not even a  better system.  The US experienced far more and severe downturns under the gold standard than without it.

The vast majority of those "more and severe" downturns occured when illegal fiat money, such as civil-war "greenbacks", had to be redeemed with good money - perhaps Gresham's Law is foreign to you?
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The issue with returning is where do you peg the price of gold to equal dollars. The old system was $35/oz.  Obviously that wouldn't work.  If you peg it too high, then it is no better than fiat money.  Too low and you lose all your reserves.

I beleive its up to Congress to make that determination...
Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't...

The Rabbi

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #3 on: March 05, 2007, 04:49:51 AM »
It's not even a  better system.  The US experienced far more and severe downturns under the gold standard than without it.

The vast majority of those "more and severe" downturns occured when illegal fiat money, such as civil-war "greenbacks", had to be redeemed with good money - perhaps Gresham's Law is foreign to you?
You mean like the Panic of 1893?
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The issue with returning is where do you peg the price of gold to equal dollars. The old system was $35/oz.  Obviously that wouldn't work.  If you peg it too high, then it is no better than fiat money.  Too low and you lose all your reserves.

I beleive its up to Congress to make that determination...

Let us know how that one works out....
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roo_ster

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2007, 05:22:21 AM »
I think the only way it could be done would involve a massive deflation. 

Something like: "As of 01JAN20012, all current dollars in circualtion will be replaced at a 1 for ten basis with the gold-dollar currency."  Then issue new, distinctinve dollars.  All physical old dollars not turned in are worth 1/10 of face value & all money held electronically get a one-time division by 10.

The gold-dollar would find its way vis a vis the other, floating currencies PDQ, as would market prices.

They could not allow folks to come in & exchange dollars for gold at face value, either.  Too many folks are too good at counterfeiting dollars and I suspect the "gold standard" would be proportional, anyway: $1 gold =$100 currency or some such.

-------------

Frankly, I don't think a gold standard has much to recommend it over fiat money.  Both depend on the gov't to be responsible and not devalue the currency/debase the metal.  Having some metal sitting in a vault will not prevent irresponsible folks in power from wrecking the whole deal.

I think some folks have a belief that some metals have a magic power that can curb human nature.  Ain't nothing that can curb human nature's tendency to abuse power, save being held accountable by a higher power.
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richyoung

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #5 on: March 05, 2007, 06:35:14 AM »
It's not even a  better system.  The US experienced far more and severe downturns under the gold standard than without it.

The vast majority of those "more and severe" downturns occured when illegal fiat money, such as civil-war "greenbacks", had to be redeemed with good money - perhaps Gresham's Law is foreign to you?
You mean like the Panic of 1893?
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Yes - although fiat money itself wasn't the culprit then: rather, it was a failure of the Democratically controlled government to maintain a sustainable ratio of gold to silver for a bimetallic currency.  Much new silver from Western mines was flooding the market - the Democratic constituency of farmers, who were mostly in debt with mortgages, favored allowing the silver into the money supply to inflate it and allow them to repay their debts with debased, inflated currency.  The practical effect of this was to over-value silver with respect to gold, so gold reserves rapidly fell to the statutory minimum as the over-priced silver was redeemed for underpriced gold, in a classic example of GRESHAM'S LAW.  When such redeeming had to stop, then the nastiness ensued.  Not gold's fault - rather pandering politicians.

(See "William Jennings Bryant", Wizard of Oz, etc.)


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The Rabbi

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #6 on: March 05, 2007, 07:18:35 AM »
And I guess we've fixed the pandering politicians problem now, right?  rolleyes
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richyoung

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #7 on: March 05, 2007, 10:13:42 AM »
And I guess we've fixed the pandering politicians problem now, right?  rolleyes

We get the government we deserve...we vote 'em in.  Thus the fundamental weakness of democracy....
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cordex

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #8 on: March 05, 2007, 11:51:10 AM »
Quote from: richyoung
We get the government we deserve...we vote 'em in.  Thus the fundamental weakness of democracy....
So if we have good, honest politicians who believe strongly in a stable economy (I know, I know) then the gold standard works?  That's fantastic!  Of course, under those conditions debt-backed money works just fine too.

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #9 on: March 05, 2007, 12:53:48 PM »
Well, if we fashioned rather substantial HAMMERS out of the gold in reserve and stood over our congresscritter, giving tham a solid -whack!- every time they voted for something unconstitutional...

We could call the conduct that follows, "The Gold Standard."

I will leave where on thier body to whack up to the constituent.
Regards,

roo_ster

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Car Knocker

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #10 on: March 05, 2007, 01:41:11 PM »
Well, if we fashioned rather substantial HAMMERS out of the gold in reserve and stood over our congresscritter, giving tham a solid -whack!- every time they voted for something unconstitutional...
Who would determine what is constitutional?
Don

jnojr

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #11 on: March 05, 2007, 02:54:29 PM »

Frankly, I don't think a gold standard has much to recommend it over fiat money.  Both depend on the gov't to be responsible and not devalue the currency/debase the metal.  Having some metal sitting in a vault will not prevent irresponsible folks in power from wrecking the whole deal.

The government cannot "debase" gold.  Sure, they could reduce the amount of gold in coins, but we would quickly discover that, and the value of those coins would be adjusted to their actual gold content.

As for gold-backed paper (receipt money), yes, printing up more receipts than there was gold behind them would lead to bank runs and a general collapse.

But we can't go back to a gold standard, because there just isn't enough gold around.  We can't have gold and silver coins in circulation, because as long as they circulated next to fiat currency, they would very quickly leave circulation... people would hoard them, only let go of them if absolutely necessary, and would use the junk paper money to pay their bills whenever possible.

Also, you have to look at what happened to the economies of 16th century Europe after the New World was discovered, and ships loaded to the gunnels with gold came in one after another.

RocketMan

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #12 on: March 06, 2007, 05:06:26 AM »
Well, if we fashioned rather substantial HAMMERS out of the gold in reserve and stood over our congresscritter, giving tham a solid -whack!- every time they voted for something unconstitutional...

We could call the conduct that follows, "The Gold Standard."

I will leave where on thier body to whack up to the constituent.
That one got a chuckle.  Funny.   laugh
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richyoung

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #13 on: March 06, 2007, 06:38:01 AM »
Quote from: richyoung
We get the government we deserve...we vote 'em in.  Thus the fundamental weakness of democracy....
So if we have good, honest politicians who believe strongly in a stable economy (I know, I know) then the gold standard works?  That's fantastic!  Of course, under those conditions debt-backed money works just fine too.

There's quite a bit less room for temptation with a backed currency - in fact, events like the Panic of 1893 are illustrations of hte consequences of fiddling about with a backed currency, while ignoring the inevitable consequences.  A fiat currency, however, delays the day of reconing until you are carrying a wheelbarrow full of notes to the baker to buy a loaf of bread....
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Manedwolf

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #14 on: March 06, 2007, 06:40:33 AM »
Just wait'll someone finds a way to use nanotech micromachines to actually perform a sort of transmutation of metals on a large scale for little cost. Have a bucket-brigade of molecular-sized machines pulling three protons off each lead atom, and you have... grin

Waitone

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #15 on: March 06, 2007, 12:10:47 PM »
I post the following article.  I would like the esteemed forum members to take a guess as to the author and date it was originally published.  I'll post documentation later.  It is a long read but well worth the effort.
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An almost hysterical antagonism toward the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all persuasions. They seem to sense  perhaps more clearly and subtly than many consistent defenders of laissez-faire  that gold and economic freedom are inseparable, that the gold standard is an instrument of laissez-faire and that each implies and requires the other.

In order to understand the source of their antagonism, it is necessary first to understand the specific role of gold in a free society.

Money is the common denominator of all economic transactions. It is that commodity which serves as a medium of exchange, is universally acceptable to all participants in an exchange economy as payment for their goods or services, and can, therefore, be used as a standard of market value and as a store of value, i.e., as a means of saving.

The existence of such a commodity is a precondition of a division of labor economy. If men did not have some commodity of objective value which was generally acceptable as money, they would have to resort to primitive barter or be forced to live on self-sufficient farms and forgo the inestimable advantages of specialization. If men had no means to store value, i.e., to save, neither long-range planning nor exchange would be possible.

What medium of exchange will be acceptable to all participants in an economy is not determined arbitrarily. First, the medium of exchange should be durable. In a primitive society of meager wealth, wheat might be sufficiently durable to serve as a medium, since all exchanges would occur only during and immediately after the harvest, leaving no value-surplus to store. But where store-of-value considerations are important, as they are in richer, more civilized societies, the medium of exchange must be a durable commodity, usually a metal. A metal is generally chosen because it is homogeneous and divisible: every unit is the same as every other and it can be blended or formed in any quantity. Precious jewels, for example, are neither homogeneous nor divisible. More important, the commodity chosen as a medium must be a luxury. Human desires for luxuries are unlimited and, therefore, luxury goods are always in demand and will always be acceptable. Wheat is a luxury in underfed civilizations, but not in a prosperous society. Cigarettes ordinarily would not serve as money, but they did in post-World War II Europe where they were considered a luxury. The term "luxury good" implies scarcity and high unit value. Having a high unit value, such a good is easily portable; for instance, an ounce of gold is worth a half-ton of pig iron.

In the early stages of a developing money economy, several media of exchange might be used, since a wide variety of commodities would fulfill the foregoing conditions. However, one of the commodities will gradually displace all others, by being more widely acceptable. Preferences on what to hold as a store of value will shift to the most widely acceptable commodity, which, in turn, will make it still more acceptable. The shift is progressive until that commodity becomes the sole medium of exchange. The use of a single medium is highly advantageous for the same reasons that a money economy is superior to a barter economy: it makes exchanges possible on an incalculably wider scale.

Whether the single medium is gold, silver, seashells, cattle, or tobacco is optional, depending on the context and development of a given economy. In fact, all have been employed, at various times, as media of exchange. Even in the present century, two major commodities, gold and silver, have been used as international media of exchange, with gold becoming the predominant one. Gold, having both artistic and functional uses and being relatively scarce, has significant advantages over all other media of exchange. Since the beginning of World War I, it has been virtually the sole international standard of exchange. If all goods and services were to be paid for in gold, large payments would be difficult to execute and this would tend to limit the extent of a society's divisions of labor and specialization. Thus a logical extension of the creation of a medium of exchange is the development of a banking system and credit instruments (bank notes and deposits) which act as a substitute for, but are convertible into, gold.

A free banking system based on gold is able to extend credit and thus to create bank notes (currency) and deposits, according to the production requirements of the economy. Individual owners of gold are induced, by payments of interest, to deposit their gold in a bank (against which they can draw checks). But since it is rarely the case that all depositors want to withdraw all their gold at the same time, the banker need keep only a fraction of his total deposits in gold as reserves. This enables the banker to loan out more than the amount of his gold deposits (which means that he holds claims to gold rather than gold as security of his deposits). But the amount of loans which he can afford to make is not arbitrary: he has to gauge it in relation to his reserves and to the status of his investments.

When banks loan money to finance productive and profitable endeavors, the loans are paid off rapidly and bank credit continues to be generally available. But when the business ventures financed by bank credit are less profitable and slow to pay off, bankers soon find that their loans outstanding are excessive relative to their gold reserves, and they begin to curtail new lending, usually by charging higher interest rates. This tends to restrict the financing of new ventures and requires the existing borrowers to improve their profitability before they can obtain credit for further expansion. Thus, under the gold standard, a free banking system stands as the protector of an economy's stability and balanced growth. When gold is accepted as the medium of exchange by most or all nations, an unhampered free international gold standard serves to foster a world-wide division of labor and the broadest international trade. Even though the units of exchange (the dollar, the pound, the franc, etc.) differ from country to country, when all are defined in terms of gold the economies of the different countries act as one  so long as there are no restraints on trade or on the movement of capital. Credit, interest rates, and prices tend to follow similar patterns in all countries. For example, if banks in one country extend credit too liberally, interest rates in that country will tend to fall, inducing depositors to shift their gold to higher-interest paying banks in other countries. This will immediately cause a shortage of bank reserves in the "easy money" country, inducing tighter credit standards and a return to competitively higher interest rates again.

A fully free banking system and fully consistent gold standard have not as yet been achieved. But prior to World War I, the banking system in the United States (and in most of the world) was based on gold and even though governments intervened occasionally, banking was more free than controlled. Periodically, as a result of overly rapid credit expansion, banks became loaned up to the limit of their gold reserves, interest rates rose sharply, new credit was cut off, and the economy went into a sharp, but short-lived recession. (Compared with the depressions of 1920 and 1932, the pre-World War I business declines were mild indeed.) It was limited gold reserves that stopped the unbalanced expansions of business activity, before they could develop into the post-World War I type of disaster. The readjustment periods were short and the economies quickly reestablished a sound basis to resume expansion.

But the process of cure was misdiagnosed as the disease: if shortage of bank reserves was causing a business decline  argued economic interventionists  why not find a way of supplying increased reserves to the banks so they never need be short! If banks can continue to loan money indefinitely  it was claimed  there need never be any slumps in business. And so the Federal Reserve System was organized in 1913. It consisted of twelve regional Federal Reserve banks nominally owned by private bankers, but in fact government sponsored, controlled, and supported. Credit extended by these banks is in practice (though not legally) backed by the taxing power of the federal government. Technically, we remained on the gold standard; individuals were still free to own gold, and gold continued to be used as bank reserves. But now, in addition to gold, credit extended by the Federal Reserve banks ("paper reserves") could serve as legal tender to pay depositors.

When business in the United States underwent a mild contraction in 1927, the Federal Reserve created more paper reserves in the hope of forestalling any possible bank reserve shortage. More disastrous, however, was the Federal Reserve's attempt to assist Great Britain who had been losing gold to us because the Bank of England refused to allow interest rates to rise when market forces dictated (it was politically unpalatable). The reasoning of the authorities involved was as follows: if the Federal Reserve pumped excessive paper reserves into American banks, interest rates in the United States would fall to a level comparable with those in Great Britain; this would act to stop Britain's gold loss and avoid the political embarrassment of having to raise interest rates. The "Fed" succeeded; it stopped the gold loss, but it nearly destroyed the economies of the world, in the process. The excess credit which the Fed pumped into the economy spilled over into the stock market, triggering a fantastic speculative boom. Belatedly, Federal Reserve officials attempted to sop up the excess reserves and finally succeeded in braking the boom. But it was too late: by 1929 the speculative imbalances had become so overwhelming that the attempt precipitated a sharp retrenching and a consequent demoralizing of business confidence. As a result, the American economy collapsed. Great Britain fared even worse, and rather than absorb the full consequences of her previous folly, she abandoned the gold standard completely in 1931, tearing asunder what remained of the fabric of confidence and inducing a world-wide series of bank failures. The world economies plunged into the Great Depression of the 1930's.

With a logic reminiscent of a generation earlier, statists argued that the gold standard was largely to blame for the credit debacle which led to the Great Depression. If the gold standard had not existed, they argued, Britain's abandonment of gold payments in 1931 would not have caused the failure of banks all over the world. (The irony was that since 1913, we had been, not on a gold standard, but on what may be termed "a mixed gold standard"; yet it is gold that took the blame.) But the opposition to the gold standard in any form  from a growing number of welfare-state advocates  was prompted by a much subtler insight: the realization that the gold standard is incompatible with chronic deficit spending (the hallmark of the welfare state). Stripped of its academic jargon, the welfare state is nothing more than a mechanism by which governments confiscate the wealth of the productive members of a society to support a wide variety of welfare schemes. A substantial part of the confiscation is effected by taxation. But the welfare statists were quick to recognize that if they wished to retain political power, the amount of taxation had to be limited and they had to resort to programs of massive deficit spending, i.e., they had to borrow money, by issuing government bonds, to finance welfare expenditures on a large scale.

Under a gold standard, the amount of credit that an economy can support is determined by the economy's tangible assets, since every credit instrument is ultimately a claim on some tangible asset. But government bonds are not backed by tangible wealth, only by the government's promise to pay out of future tax revenues, and cannot easily be absorbed by the financial markets. A large volume of new government bonds can be sold to the public only at progressively higher interest rates. Thus, government deficit spending under a gold standard is severely limited. The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. They have created paper reserves in the form of government bonds which  through a complex series of steps  the banks accept in place of tangible assets and treat as if they were an actual deposit, i.e., as the equivalent of what was formerly a deposit of gold. The holder of a government bond or of a bank deposit created by paper reserves believes that he has a valid claim on a real asset. But the fact is that there are now more claims outstanding than real assets. The law of supply and demand is not to be conned. As the supply of money (of claims) increases relative to the supply of tangible assets in the economy, prices must eventually rise. Thus the earnings saved by the productive members of the society lose value in terms of goods. When the economy's books are finally balanced, one finds that this loss in value represents the goods purchased by the government for welfare or other purposes with the money proceeds of the government bonds financed by bank credit expansion.

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.

This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.
"Men, it has been well said, think in herds. It will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."
- Charles Mackay, Scottish journalist, circa 1841

"Our society is run by insane people for insane objectives. I think we're being run by maniacs for maniacal ends and I think I'm liable to be put away as insane for expressing that. That's what's insane about it." - John Lennon

Antibubba

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #16 on: March 06, 2007, 08:27:33 PM »
Mises?
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Art Eatman

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #17 on: March 07, 2007, 04:37:15 AM »
Greenspan.

IMO, you can't "peg" to gold.  The only way a gold standard would work would be for a free market to determine how much paper is needed for conversion to gold.  Just like right now.  (Okay, okay, "sorta" free market.)

Seems to me the issue is how widespread you need the use of gold and silver to be, before it's a "standard".  You can buy many things from many people, right now, using silver and gold.  Sure, you gotta do some conversion for most of daily purchases, but I've sold guns for gold coins.  I've known folks who sold cars for gold coins.  After all, it ain't agin the law; it's just not common practice. 

One thing for sure, though, is that no government will voluntarily go back to any sort of intrinsic-worth standard.  The financial structure of the whole world is based on fiat currencies--even though central banks own hundreds of tons of gold.

Art

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Waitone

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #18 on: March 08, 2007, 02:18:09 AM »
"Men, it has been well said, think in herds. It will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."
- Charles Mackay, Scottish journalist, circa 1841

"Our society is run by insane people for insane objectives. I think we're being run by maniacs for maniacal ends and I think I'm liable to be put away as insane for expressing that. That's what's insane about it." - John Lennon

Art Eatman

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #19 on: March 08, 2007, 06:12:08 AM »
Quite a few people have wondered why Greenspan went from being a gold bug to being a fiat-paper bug.  The change then led to two of the larger bubbles in American financial history:  The dot-com bubble and the housing bubble.  While many people got rich during the dot-com bubble, I note that some eight trillion dollars "went away" from Nasdaq in 2000 when the bubble popped.

The housing bubble is just now beginning to pop.  The major nationwide homebuilders are cutting way back on their workforces as their stock values drop.  Financing entities are going bankrupt, although at this time it's mostly those who've catered to sub-prime borrowers.  Buyers of notes are going to court, with allegations of lying about appraisals for loans.  Subdivision projects are being abandoned.  Builders' supply chains like Home Depot and Lowes are seeing drops in sales.

The problem with the housing bubble is that much of the consumer spending of these last half-dozen years has come from either wages and salaries within the industry, or spending from the refinancing that has occurred.  Our economy is some 2/3 consumeritis, so this does not bode well for many retailers.

Which all goes back to fiat money and the absence of any intrinsic value standard when exports of manufactured goods are much, much less than imports.  That is, in order to keep an economy going, they gotta print paper.  The M3 thing.  That's damned sure been going on; some ten percent increase per year.  And, easy credit, as we've observed.

To hide all this from Joe Sixpack, the official CPI numbers have been fiddled with.  (No different from the unemployment numbers.)  The real inflation--or loss of buying power--is well above any 2.6% or 3%.  Analysts in what might be called the financial industry estimate anywhere from six percent to ten percent.  Certainly if you look at land prices and housing prices over these last ten years, the rate is at or above ten percent; particularly for land, which has been inflating closer to 20%.  Asset inflation, it's called.

Doesn't matter.  A hedonistic spending pattern is now part of our society.  The government is catering to this behavior pattern.

I'm sitting on the sidelines, just watching.  "May you live in interesting times."

Art
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Waitone

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #20 on: March 08, 2007, 06:25:00 AM »
http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs?

Paul Craig Roberts has an excellent article on the economic spin cycle
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2006/3/3/83107.shtml
"Men, it has been well said, think in herds. It will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one."
- Charles Mackay, Scottish journalist, circa 1841

"Our society is run by insane people for insane objectives. I think we're being run by maniacs for maniacal ends and I think I'm liable to be put away as insane for expressing that. That's what's insane about it." - John Lennon

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #21 on: March 08, 2007, 07:06:43 AM »
And I guess we've fixed the pandering politicians problem now, right?  rolleyes

We get the government we deserve...we vote 'em in.  Thus the fundamental weakness of democracy....

 ...hence my total rejection of it.

Guest

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #22 on: March 08, 2007, 07:13:44 AM »
......IMO, you can't "peg" to gold.  The only way a gold standard would work would be for a free market to determine how much paper is needed for conversion to gold.  Just like right now.  (Okay, okay, "sorta" free market.)

 Bingo. BTW, I am not for a "gold standard"; that implies a state.

Quote
...One thing for sure, though, is that no government will voluntarily go back to any sort of intrinsic-worth standard. 

 That is why, to finally have a free economy, the state must be eliminated.
 


The Rabbi

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #23 on: March 08, 2007, 10:06:14 AM »
Art,
You've made this claim about CPI numbers before.  The Headless Thompson Gunner pointed out that even based on your own observations it isn't true.
Greenspan's changing position did not "lead" to either bubble.  Many things led to those events, chief among them the basic nature of capitalism.  Bubbles, manias, panics, crashes have been around as long as capitalism.  And they'll continue to be.
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Art Eatman

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Re: Impossible to Return to the Gold Standard
« Reply #24 on: March 08, 2007, 11:21:53 AM »
Hey, as long as the CPI ignores such things as houses and land, why give it credence?  Houses and land aren't part of the cost of living?  Hell's bells, aren't the ad valorem tax increases which result from higher appraisals a part of the cost of living?  Petroleum-related items such as motor oil and cleansers aren't part of the cost of living?  Omitting so many critical items, and making such assumptions as the substitution of generics for name brands is the only way to keep the CPI number down to hold down the COLA in retirement checks.  That's a serious problem when you have as many retired old farts as we do, and so many retirement programs in deep doo-doo.

IOW, the CPI is interesting, but irrelevant to reality.  Face it:  The motive, means and opportunity are all there for "messing" with the CPI.  Aren't those three common to many prosecutions? Cheesy

Greenspan's policies enabled the credit expansion that led to the bubbles.  Sure, other factors entered in, but cheap credit made it an attractive economic package for those investing in dot-coms and then housing.  Tax law's part of it; a low capital gains tax rate compared to the earned-income tax rate made day-trading attractive--and, reduced the relative value of constant-share-price stocks which paid dividends.  And a ton of other stuff.  Still, the foundation was the easy access to low-cost credit.

However, there's gotta be some sympathy for him, and now for Bernanke.  If interest rates are raised, we get a stronger dollar; that hurts exports and worsens the trade deficit.  It also slows down economic activity in any economy, but particularly in a consumer economy.  Low interest rates keep the economy rolling along, but weaken the dollar vs. foreign currencies--which make imports more expensive.

Think "Wallenda". Smiley

Art
The American Indians learned what happens when you don't control immigration.