Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => The Roundtable => Topic started by: Ben on October 02, 2017, 09:55:51 PM
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GM announced they are going 100% electric or hydrogen on all their vehicles. No timetable other than "at least 20 models" by 2023. As with driverless cars, I'm wondering how this will affect people like me, who like to explore the empty places. I've not seen range on current fuel cell powered vehicles, but I'm guessing it's not more than the 200 miles max of the electrics.
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/amp/gm-going-all-electric-will-ditch-gas-diesel-powered-cars-n806806
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By By GM!
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For the libtards, a reduced range that keeps people out of the boonies would be a feature, not a bug.
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I've wondered about range issues myself. I routinely make a 500 mile trip. This would not be easy with current non gasoline-powered offerings.
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Well, there goes the Ford versus Chevvy debate.
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I've wondered about range issues myself. I routinely make a 500 mile trip. This would not be easy with current non gasoline-powered offerings.
I'm also curious on, for instance, Tesla's "200 mile range". Is that a true 200 miles, as in I can get to a charger at 195, or could I potentially go dead at 170, especially with older batteries? Also, 200 miles on flat ground? What about more aggressive driving, grades, etc?
I recognize the consumption calculations and battery health are computerized, but wonder how well they adjust to various conditions. Even though my truck has a 600 mile range, I never go below "100 miles to E" (and usually am way more conservative than that) before filling up, especially when I don't know where the next gas station will be.
I'm sure even in another five years that we'll see longer ranges, but they seem to have a long way to go to get close to what the average gasoline car does now.
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Well, there goes the Ford versus Chevvy debate.
I've been a "Chevy guy" for the last 45 years or so, brother's been into Fords all along. Guess I'll be calling my brother to let him know he's been right.
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I'm also curious on, for instance, Tesla's "200 mile range". Is that a true 200 miles, as in I can get to a charger at 195, or could I potentially go dead at 170, especially with older batteries? Also, 200 miles on flat ground? What about more aggressive driving, grades, etc?
I recognize the consumption calculations and battery health are computerized, but wonder how well they adjust to various conditions. Even though my truck has a 600 mile range, I never go below "100 miles to E" (and usually am way more conservative than that) before filling up, especially when I don't know where the next gas station will be.
I'm sure even in another five years that we'll see longer ranges, but they seem to have a long way to go to get close to what the average gasoline car does now.
We've been diddle-doinking with electric cars since there were cars. In that time we've gone from Lead-Acid to Li-Ion batteries ranges have gone from ~75 miles to 200 miles. So baring some new technique to make batteries small, cheaper, and more powerful, we're hitting about the top end of the affordability or cost/benefit curve.
I'd be very, very interested as to how GM is going to make a hydrogen powered* car. It takes more energy to make it than it provides, unless you are using nuclear to power the electrolysis or Natural Gas reforming, but would that be using those icky fossil fuels ??
Time to short GM... It pisses me off to think how much we could have saved the taxpayers, bond and stockholders had Obama just let it go into BK like most companies that have failed/are failing do...
*- https://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/hydrogen_production.html I personally like the Liquefied Hydrogen Tankers because nothing could ever go wrong there. ;/ ;/
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GM could name their 1st hydrogen car the Hindenburg.
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but I'm guessing it's not more than the 200 miles max of the electrics.
What 200 mile maximum? Tesla's 100D has a range of 335 miles.
https://www.engadget.com/2017/01/20/teslas-latest-100d-models-focus-on-range-not-power/
As for how that figure was obtained, I've heard that they've actually gotten close to 500 miles out of one by hypermiling it, http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-model-s-sets-new-hypermiling-record-560-miles-2017-6
From what I understand, their range estimate is calculated using the standard mileage test by the EPA. IE run the course/simulation, divide course distance by percent of battery power used. Not incredibly real world, but if you get better than EPA mpg on your current vehicle, you should have more range than stated on the Tesla. If you get worse, you'll probably get less range. "Nobody" drives to match the EPA test exactly.
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Quote from: 230RN on October 02, 2017, 09:19:15 PM
Well, there goes the Ford versus Chevvy debate.
I've been a "Chevy guy" for the last 45 years or so, brother's been into Fords all along. Guess I'll be calling my brother to let him know he's been right.
:rofl:
Takes a man to man up and admit he's wrong. I know, 'cause I've had a lot of practice in that.
Terry
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I'm also curious on, for instance, Tesla's "200 mile range". Is that a true 200 miles, as in I can get to a charger at 195, or could I potentially go dead at 170, especially with older batteries? Also, 200 miles on flat ground? What about more aggressive driving, grades, etc?
I recognize the consumption calculations and battery health are computerized, but wonder how well they adjust to various conditions. Even though my truck has a 600 mile range, I never go below "100 miles to E" (and usually am way more conservative than that) before filling up, especially when I don't know where the next gas station will be.
I'm sure even in another five years that we'll see longer ranges, but they seem to have a long way to go to get close to what the average gasoline car does now.
What about people up North - say, Minnesota - whose cars frequently see sub freezing (and frequently sub-zero) temperature conditions and lots of snow? Ordinary batteries lose capacity in cold weather - not sure about lithium ion. But if you've got the heater/defroster running full blast with headlights and wipers on when it's cold and snowing, the extra drain will certainly affect range of a battery powered vehicle.
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They recover some of the energy on the return strokes of the wiper blades. Regenerative wiping, they call it.
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Gasoline powered vehicles are going to go the way of the horse and buggy.
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I wouldn't be too concerned about this, except that I get the feeling if it turns out to be a bad business move GM will limp along until we get a new pres and then get another bailout.
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Well, there goes the Ford versus Chevvy debate.
Yep. It was won by Subaru.
:rofl:
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"I'm also curious on, for instance, Tesla's "200 mile range". Is that a true 200 miles, as in I can get to a charger at 195, or could I potentially go dead at 170, especially with older batteries? Also, 200 miles on flat ground? What about more aggressive driving, grades, etc?"
As with other mileage figures for gasoline and diesel, it's going to be affected significantly by driving style, driving conditions, and the like.
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Gasoline powered vehicles are going to go the way of the horse and buggy.
That's fine as long as the replacements are well researched, introduced through capitalism vs force of government, and perform better than what they replace.
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What 200 mile maximum? Tesla's 100D has a range of 335 miles.
https://www.engadget.com/2017/01/20/teslas-latest-100d-models-focus-on-range-not-power/
Notice your link said "range over power". Call me when they have both range AND power (and 4wd). =D
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That's fine as long as the replacements are well researched, introduced through capitalism vs force of government, and perform better than what they replace.
Yeah, I want to see the Indy 500 or NASCAR have an all electric race and see how that works.
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I've been a "Chevy guy" for the last 45 years or so, brother's been into Fords all along. Guess I'll be calling my brother to let him know he's been right.
I had Chevrolet until it became Govt Motors. My current truck is a Ford F150. Good truck. I promised myself I would seriously look at Toyota also next time. A couple people I work with have their trucks and they seem to be pretty good.
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That's fine as long as the replacements are well researched, introduced through capitalism vs force of government, and perform better than what they replace.
I have a feeling the future increased costs and scarcity of fuels that we currently use will drive it. Wouldn't be surprised if there is a migration back to the Midwest and Northeast as it becomes too expensive to run airconditiong in the Southern cities.
Long distance travel regularly by the masses is a relatively new thing, fueled by cheap energy. As we lose affordable hydrocarbons things we take for granted are going to disappear. Cheap food for one, amazing how much fertilizer that creates the high yields is hydrocarbon based. May not happen in our lifetimes, but it is coming.
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Are we back to peak oil again?
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I have a feeling the future increased costs and scarcity of fuels that we currently use will drive it. Wouldn't be surprised if there is a migration back to the Midwest and Northeast as it becomes too expensive to run airconditiong in the Southern cities.
Long distance travel regularly by the masses is a relatively new thing, fueled by cheap energy. As we lose affordable hydrocarbons things we take for granted are going to disappear. Cheap food for one, amazing how much fertilizer that creates the high yields is hydrocarbon based. May not happen in our lifetimes, but it is coming.
What evidence do you have that fossil fuels are becoming scarce?
(I see fistful beat me to it.)
Incidentally, I have seen quite a few articles worried about the serious problems of peak oil demand. Our world is on a path towards population reduction, not overpopulation. (Of which "peak oil" is a subset of the Malthus falsehoods.)
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What evidence do you have that fossil fuels are becoming scarce?
(I see fistful beat me to it.)
Incidentally, I have seen quite a few articles worried about the serious problems of peak oil demand. Our world is on a path towards population reduction, not overpopulation. (Of which "peak oil" is a subset of the Malthus falsehoods.)
Cost of extraction and processing vs. price it takes to make it profitable. Is alternative energy going to be cheaper then vs using extracted hydrocarbons. Scarcity isn't about running out, it's about at what cost will people still pay for it or look for alternatives.
If it costs you $1500 in gasoline to drive 500 miles would you still do it? Or costs you $5 in electricity to drive 250 miles?
I think many people's view is that we have had cheap energy our entire lives and so did our parents, so it seems like it is everlasting.
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GM could name their 1st hydrogen car the Hindenburg.
THAT"S AWESOME !!!!!
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
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On the fuel cells, I just did a little googling and Car and Driver says about a 250 mile range at this time, so that would need to nearly double as well to be practical.
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I have a feeling the future increased costs and scarcity of fuels that we currently use will drive it.
We've been running out of oil since 1975 when there were only 600 billion bbl in proven reserves. Now there are over 1,800 billion bbl in proven reserves.* Three times what we had 40 years ago.
https://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/article-from-1975-the-world-will-be-out-of-oil-by-2015-1732903871
Proven oil Reserves:
OPEC -1,200 Billion Barrels (Venezuela alone has 296 Billion bbl)
US- 264 Billion bbl
Russia - 266 Billion bbl
Canada - 173 Billion bbl
Nigeria - 37.2 Billion bbl
If you notice the price of gas and other fossil fuels (like NG) have gone to to about half (or less) of what they were ten years ago. Until and unless they can produce cars with batteries that match the price, range, and convenience of gasoline powered vehicles, then they won't be competitive. Especially once subsidies and tax breaks are removed: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-02/denmark-is-killing-tesla-and-other-electric-cars
* - http://oilprice.com/images/tinymce/POB2.jpg
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Cost of extraction and processing vs. price it takes to make it profitable. Is alternative energy going to be cheaper then vs using extracted hydrocarbons. Scarcity isn't about running out, it's about at what cost will people still pay for it or look for alternatives.
If it costs you $1500 in gasoline to drive 500 miles would you still do it? Or costs you $5 in electricity to drive 250 miles?
I think many people's view is that we have had cheap energy our entire lives and so did our parents, so it seems like it is everlasting.
No, scarcity is exactly about running out.
scarcity
[skair-si-tee]
noun, plural scarcities.
1.
insufficiency or shortness of supply; dearth.
2.
rarity; infrequency.
That's what would drive your $1500 tank of gas.
IF renewables become cheaper, than why would we also be facing an issue of expensive electricity. Your examples and reasoning are contradictory.
I have no problem with a move to electric cars if they become better than gas cars. (Not just "cheaper" because, as others have noted, there are more issues than just cost to operate.) I'm not opposed to alternate energy sources per se, I'm opposed to forcing them in the absence of demand.
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Say, where are we getting all this electricity to charge up all these car batteries from?
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Say, where are we getting all this electricity to charge up these cars from anyway?
Solar and wind power!
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Stop laughing!
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Stop laughing!
Mrmf! Snort! <gigglestifle>
I'm trying to stop.
But then I think of how much energy is required to obtain hydrogen from water, then compress it, then run it through a fuel cell to make water again....
Or even... even... now get this.... even run it through a regular old combustion engine to get power....
Bwah-hah-hah-hahhh ! Can't help myself ! :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
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We've been running out of oil since 1975 when there were only 600 billion bbl in proven reserves. Now there are over 1,800 billion bbl in proven reserves.* Three times what we had 40 years ago.
https://paleofuture.gizmodo.com/article-from-1975-the-world-will-be-out-of-oil-by-2015-1732903871
Proven oil Reserves:
OPEC -1,200 Billion Barrels (Venezuela alone has 296 Billion bbl)
US- 264 Billion bbl
Russia - 266 Billion bbl
Canada - 173 Billion bbl
Nigeria - 37.2 Billion bbl
If you notice the price of gas and other fossil fuels (like NG) have gone to to about half (or less) of what they were ten years ago. Until and unless they can produce cars with batteries that match the price, range, and convenience of gasoline powered vehicles, then they won't be competitive. Especially once subsidies and tax breaks are removed: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-02/denmark-is-killing-tesla-and-other-electric-cars
* - http://oilprice.com/images/tinymce/POB2.jpg
So why isn't oil under $10 a barrel if we have so much?
Look at battery tech in the last 10-15 years, it is getting better. As wind/solar tech gets better (and cheaper) you can have a backyard fuel source, think about it less government involvement on your own energy demands. Look at how much government is involved with hydrocarbon fuels.
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Say, where are we getting all these raw materials to make modern hi-energy-density batteries from anyway?
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So why isn't oil under $10 a barrel if we have so much?
Look at battery tech in the last 10-15 years, it is getting better. As wind/solar tech gets better (and cheaper) you can have a backyard fuel source, think about it less government involvement on your own energy demands. Look at how much government is involved with hydrocarbon fuels.
How does this ↑ fit with this ↓?
I think many people's view is that we have had cheap energy our entire lives and so did our parents, so it seems like it is everlasting.
Incidentally, the government is "involved" with hydrocarbons about as much as it is "involved" with every business in the country... except that it gets specially taxed, as well.
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Say, where are we getting all these raw materials to make modern hi-energy-density batteries from anyway?
exploit the third world.. like we always do. :)
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Say, where are we getting all these raw materials to make modern hi-energy-density batteries from anyway?
You missed our thread on Cobalt stocks. =D
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How does this ↑ fit with this ↓?
Incidentally, the government is "involved" with hydrocarbons about as much as it is "involved" with every business in the country... except that it gets specially taxed, as well.
You aren't making gasoline in your backyard, you need to buy it at a pump.
Making electricity and storing it in batteries is something you can do pretty easily. I have a solar panel, power regulator and deep cycle battery for my sailboat that I don't plug into the grid to keep it charged. No one knows how much energy I transfer, store and use.
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So why isn't oil under $10 a barrel if we have so much?
Look at battery tech in the last 10-15 years, it is getting better. As wind/solar tech gets better (and cheaper) you can have a backyard fuel source, think about it less government involvement on your own energy demands. Look at how much government is involved with hydrocarbon fuels.
Costs to extract, transport, process, transport again, and then all the .gov taxes. (There might a tiny bit of profit in there at each level.) Why is gas $.30-$.50 cheaper in Indiana then in Illinois ??
Wind/Solar is not getting "Cheaper" the cost to KwH has been the same for 20 years now. Plus both are unreliable. Neither have gotten "better". Solar doesn't work at night to charge your electric car, and if there's not enough wind (winds frequently die down during the night, something to do with the sun and heat), you wake up to uncharged electric car. And batteries lose storage capacity over time, the more they are charged and discharged.
Why aren't you driving a Tesla either for personal use or for your job ??
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Gasoline powered vehicles are going to go the way of the horse and buggy.
So we'll have to go to Pennsylvania Dutch country to see Amish farmers driving gasoline-powered vehicles?
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Why aren't you driving a Tesla either for personal use or for your job ??
Cost of the vehicle, but as they become more affordable they become more attractive as an option.
For work: 250 miles range would fit 95% of my driving, most days I am under 200 miles of driving. I drive a E85 vehicle for work and required by work to use E85.
More than likely when it is time for me to get a new personal vehicle, I'm going to get a flex fuel vehicle. when there is a .40-.50 price difference between e10 and e85 it is cheaper to use e85. Ethanol is no longer subsidized either, hell they are exporting American made ethanol because of the surplus.
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Costs to extract, transport, process, transport again, and then all the .gov taxes. (There might a tiny bit of profit in there at each level.) Why is gas $.30-$.50 cheaper in Indiana then in Illinois ??
Wind/Solar is not getting "Cheaper" the cost to KwH has been the same for 20 years now. Plus both are unreliable. Neither have gotten "better". Solar doesn't work at night to charge your electric car, and if there's not enough wind (winds frequently die down during the night, something to do with the sun and heat), you wake up to uncharged electric car. And batteries lose storage capacity over time, the more they are charged and discharged.
I was talking the price of wholesale oil on the open market
Also gasoline engines wear out, so do batteries. Nothing lasts forever.
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I wish a manufacturer would expand on the GM set up on the Volt. Having a battery for storage and a gas powered engine running at a steady rpm powering a generator actually works fairly good.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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I wish a manufacturer would expand on the GM set up on the Volt. Having a battery for storage and a gas powered engine running at a steady rpm powering a generator actually works fairly good.
Would that be similar to a diesel-electric?
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I wish a manufacturer would expand on the GM set up on the Volt. Having a battery for storage and a gas powered engine running at a steady rpm powering a generator actually works fairly good.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
How would that work with variable engine speeds? I totally see it working on interstate trucking, fairly constant speed and loading outside of the hilly areas.
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I wish a manufacturer would expand on the GM set up on the Volt. Having a battery for storage and a gas powered engine running at a steady rpm powering a generator actually works fairly good.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
That was the Fisker model. It actually worked very well. Shame the cars kept catching fire.
Porsche uses a similar system in their hybrid. With less flames.
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I was talking the price of wholesale oil on the open market
Because it is a publicly traded commodity.
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I drive a E85 vehicle for work and required by work to use E85.
Our fleet has mostly flex fuel or E85 vehicles. There is one place in town to get E85 so the .gov built our very own E85 storage tank on site to fuel our vehicles. I wonder if the cost savings in fuel has paid for the gas station yet?
bob
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Because it is a publicly traded commodity.
If we have some much of it, why isn't it cheaper? Oh, it's getting more expensive to extract, so there has to be a minimum price so people will produce. Is it going to get the the point where extraction will become so expensive demand with shift to other forms of energy due to costs?
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Our fleet has mostly flex fuel or E85 vehicles. There is one place in town to get E85 so the .gov built our very own E85 storage tank on site to fuel our vehicles. I wonder if the cost savings in fuel has paid for the gas station yet?
bob
Survey says!................ XXX
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Our fleet has mostly flex fuel or E85 vehicles. There is one place in town to get E85 so the .gov built our very own E85 storage tank on site to fuel our vehicles. I wonder if the cost savings in fuel has paid for the gas station yet?
bob
I live in the land of corn, E85 can be located in many areas. I have 2 locations in the town I live in and several more within 30 miles. I have three ethanol plants within 30 miles also. They and feed mills use so much field corn that farmers can get market price for corn and very rare for any of the elevators in my area to export via rail.
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Until and unless they can produce cars with batteries that match the price, range, and convenience of gasoline powered vehicles, then they won't be competitive. Especially once subsidies and tax breaks are removed: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-02/denmark-is-killing-tesla-and-other-electric-cars
Barring some fundamental scientific, physics, or chemistry law that puts a wall in our way, or the rare chance that a working super-battery requiring insanely expensive rare metals... we will get to that point in cost per kg per kWh (and charge time, and number of cycles/life-span) where it is competitive with gasoline, and probably even surpassing it.
The reason being, is even if the economy of cars stopped driving battery research today, everything else is. Smartphones, tablets, drones, wireless earphones, cameras, battery backup systems for data centers... it goes on and on. So there's dozens of industries that are providing economic incentives to figure out lighter, smaller, more durable, and more energy-dense batteries.
Teslas, such as they are, use a huge stack of 18650 LiOn batteries, the same ones as in laptop batteries, at least until you get into the slim ultrabooks which have LiPoly flat batteries more like tablets and cell phones. 18650's got to be as good as they are not because of the electric car industry, but because of the laptop industry.
So my gut feeling on this is that a lot of businesses and investors see the writing on the wall, and that the faux-economy of subsidies and electric cars that are price-uncompetitive status symbols is coming to a... well, I won't say "an end", but I will say it's coming to a middle. (hat tip to Firefly)
The main bottleneck I see isn't the battery tech, it's being attacked by so many, from so many directions, success seems likely. (I'll define success as 3x the current best kWh per kg, and 2 x the lifespan/charge-discharge cycles, and low fire risk...) The bottleneck I see is getting the NIMBY/eco-nut barrier broken to getting enough nuclear to charge all these cars.
It's not as if we don't have thousands of uses for those petrochemicals beyond simply burning them to get around, even if proven supplies are going up all the time. Fertilizer, plastics, medicine, lubrication, rubber, synthetic thread/fabrics... the list goes on for pages and pages.
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The main bottleneck I see isn't the battery tech, it's being attacked by so many, from so many directions, success seems likely. (I'll define success as 3x the current best kWh per kg, and 2 x the lifespan/charge-discharge cycles, and low fire risk...) The bottleneck I see is getting the NIMBY/eco-nut barrier broken to getting enough nuclear to charge all these cars.
It's not as if we don't have thousands of uses for those petrochemicals beyond simply burning them to get around, even if proven supplies are going up all the time. Fertilizer, plastics, medicine, lubrication, rubber, synthetic thread/fabrics... the list goes on for pages and pages.
Don't forget the demand side, as we adopt more efficient technologies.
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. . .The main bottleneck I see isn't the battery tech, it's being attacked by so many, from so many directions, success seems likely . . .
Eventually.
Just like fusion power. (Which has been 20 years off for the past 40 years . . . and still is.)
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Eventually.
Just like fusion power. (Which has been 20 years off for the past 40 years . . . and still is.)
More like ten years off for the last sixty years. Fusion is starting to look like to be one of those pie-in-the-sky technologies that will never be commercially viable, at least in our lifetimes. Maybe after some major technological breakthroughs a hundred years from now fusion power will be a thing.
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Don't forget the demand side, as we adopt more efficient technologies.
Growth worldwide overall is still far outstripping any shrink in the demand that higher tech. Stuff like the savings from LED house lighting, LED street lights, smart house wi-fi thermostats, and smartphones/tablets replacing desktop PC's etc. will be eaten up many times over as the Third and Second World claws their way up and industrializes and gets utilities. It's going to happen. I mean, you can estimate the energy savings once 99% of the U.S. has LED bulbs, but even if you discount the third world, proliferation in new energy consuming devices is going to eat up the savings.
And barring wars to prevent it, and without major breakthroughs in Solar, the Third World powering up is going to happen via coal power, unless we can commoditize modular meltdown-proof walk-away-safe nuclear power that also mitigates proliferation concerns.
More like ten years off for the last sixty years. Fusion is starting to look like to be one of those pie-in-the-sky technologies that will never be commercially viable, at least in our lifetimes. Maybe after some major technological breakthroughs a hundred years from now fusion power will be a thing.
Fusion is attainable. Because we know it works in stars, and in H-bombs. There's not really some fundamental physics barrier we need to break, it's more of an "engineering problem". Fusion is poised to get commercialized as higher technology in other fields is making it more practical, and enabling us to tackle it in ways we haven't before.
It's kind of like what's happening with SpaceX. Putting aside the love Elon/hate Elon cult of personality and the .gov subsidies, so far SpaceX has managed to do for pennies on the dollar what no one else has been able to, because they've leveraged every new technology advantage we have. Computers, carbon fiber composites, 3D printing and a whole slew of other bleeding edge technologies. I don't think people completely understand the enormity of what SpaceX has accomplished, when one has to look at what their biggest competitors are doing. Things like flying boosters that have a 50-60 year old design lineage, or by buying cold-war surplus rocket engines from Ukraine. And still doing it more expensively.
On top of that, SpaceX is landing it's goddamn rockets. We've already gotten used to that, but they figured out sustainable reusability in about 3 years, something that took NASA, what... never?
Of course they're standing on the backs of giants to get where they are, and it's not just all "lean" processes designed to minimize bureaucracy and inertia, they have a slew of 21st century technologies at their disposal that previous generations did not, but that's the point.
Fusion research is starting to get to that same place. Designs like the Wendelstein 7-X stellarator where it's a toriodal confinement ring, like a Tokamak, but it's also twisted or braided, and was a shape that was nigh impossible to make until large scale computer controlled machining and design was possible.
I won't predict commercial fusion in 10 years, I might bet $200 on somebody attaining greater than break-even sustained fusion within 10 years though. And for commercial fusion, I would say definitely less than 100 years.
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If we have some much of it, why isn't it cheaper? Oh, it's getting more expensive to extract, so there has to be a minimum price so people will produce. Is it going to get the the point where extraction will become so expensive demand with shift to other forms of energy due to costs?
My understanding is the cost of extraction has gotten cheaper over the years hence they keep going after oil that is harder to get both on land and ocean. I have always heard that if inflation is taken into account, oil prices have really not risen all that much in the last 30 years or so.
Also, there are a great many areas of the world that have not been fully explored (if at all) and lots of offshore areas that are off limits to exploration. There is probably a lot of natural gas out there that they are not allowed to look for. The "known reserves" number is just based on what we know about that has been explored.
I imagine we will run out of oil eventually, but not for hundreds of years.
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Growth worldwide overall is still far outstripping any shrink in the demand that higher tech. Stuff like the savings from LED house lighting, LED street lights, smart house wi-fi thermostats, and smartphones/tablets replacing desktop PC's etc. will be eaten up many times over as the Third and Second World claws their way up and industrializes and gets utilities. It's going to happen. I mean, you can estimate the energy savings once 99% of the U.S. has LED bulbs, but even if you discount the third world, proliferation in new energy consuming devices is going to eat up the savings.
And barring wars to prevent it, and without major breakthroughs in Solar, the Third World powering up is going to happen via coal power, unless we can commoditize modular meltdown-proof walk-away-safe nuclear power that also mitigates proliferation concerns.
I've heard that. It still has to be figured in.
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I've heard that. It still has to be figured in.
Yes, there's some savings, and it can be measured, but new uses for electricity eat it up. I don't have the exact numbers, but stuff like LED's and "smart everything" will save maybe 10-15%, when aggregate electrical demand could jump 200%. And if we had plentiful nuclear power, there's also other things that open up to us, like wholesale desalinization of sea water for Southern California, and other dry countries. We're not just talking about a municipal water system, but enough energy to create entire freshwater canals and irrigation systems, lakes, and permanently green deserts.
Recycling and garbage, it can be done already, where we can cook or bake it back into hydrocarbons and other raw elements, but it's not cost effective. But with nearly unlimited energy we can reduce everything to it's constituent components for re-use, and we can also do things like attack certain kinds of resource extraction, like working with certain chemicals and ores that aren't profitable today because they take so much energy.
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Yes, there's some savings, and it can be measured, but new uses for electricity eat it up. I don't have the exact numbers, but stuff like LED's and "smart everything" will save maybe 10-15%, when aggregate electrical demand could jump 200%.
OK. I'm just saying that you can't guess what the demand is going to be (200% or whatever) without figuring in how much less energy newer tech will use.
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Meanwhile, my Ford V8 came with a 34 gallon tank.
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"...like wholesale desalinization of sea water for Southern California, and other dry countries."
ISWYDT. :rofl:
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I wish a manufacturer would expand on the GM set up on the Volt. Having a battery for storage and a gas powered engine running at a steady rpm powering a generator actually works fairly good.
A friend of mine has owned a Volt for over 4 years and likes it. He has the charging station at his house, so he only buys gas once a month, if that.
I've gone on one road trip from NoVA to NJ and back for work and a few around town trips in his Volt. It seems to drive fine.
Chris
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Anyone thought GM is doing this to get their CAFE standards up for they can produce a bigger line up of bigger less fuel efficient vehicles?
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Anyone thought GM is doing this to get their CAFE standards up for they can produce a bigger line up of bigger less fuel efficient vehicles?
I would say that is very likely.
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GM announced today that they are beginning production on a new SUV crossover that will run on good intentions.
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I would say that is very likely.
Well, except according to the article, they're going for 100% electric or fuel cell. I guess it would give them a few years to sell big gas guzzlers while they transition. Though if the gasoline vehicles have known limited production life, I'm not sure I'd buy something that GM doesn't want to produce (and possibly not maintain) anymore.
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How would that work with variable engine speeds? I totally see it working on interstate trucking, fairly constant speed and loading outside of the hilly areas.
Uses the battery as a buffer. Torque on the Volt is fantastic.
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Notice your link said "range over power". Call me when they have both range AND power (and 4wd). =D
100D has more torque than a truck and is AWD. The D stands for 'dual motor'. It's not just AWD, it has complete control over the power difference between front and back.
If that still isn't enough power for you, the P100D puts a bigger motor in the back, allowing a production vehicle to win against hellcats and such in drag racing. It costs you about 20 miles of range because of the bigger motor.
Trucks lose more mileage going from 6 to 8 cylinders.
Wind/Solar is not getting "Cheaper" the cost to KwH has been the same for 20 years now.
Say what? Cost per wat for solar panels have gone down an order of magnitude in that time
(https://understandsolar.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/cost-of-solar-panels-over-time.jpg)
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Uses the battery as a buffer. Torque on the Volt is fantastic.
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So basically an improved Prius? I was probably thinking a straight diesel electric, no battery. Like a train.
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So basically an improved Prius? I was probably thinking a straight diesel electric, no battery. Like a train.
I'd be hesitant to call it just "improved", depending on which generation of Prius you're talking about.
The Volt is a "strong" hybrid - it is capable of most driving tasks just on electric power. If your commute is less than 30 miles, for example, you can probably make it without the gas engine ever turning on. But it is always there, waiting. You can also plug it in to take advantage of cheap electricity rates.
Early versions of the Prius were "weak" hybrids - the motor and battery were only good for puttering around in parking lots and accelerating the vehicle from a stop at a red light or stop sign, using the energy stored in the battery FROM stopping. It would then turn on the engine above 40-45 mph, because the system just wasn't powerful enough. You had no plug for charging it outside of the gasoline engine.
The Prius, in the end, was a modified gasoline vehicle. The Volt is a true hybrid
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Ethanol is no longer subsidized either, hell they are exporting American made ethanol because of the surplus.
Could you please cite the legislation that ended Ethanol subsidies? My copy of the budget still shows them in there. Along with the EPA mandate (Renewable Fuel Standards) to use more and more each year.
https://www.downsizinggovernment.org/ethanol-and-biofuel-policies
https://www.cato.org/blog/time-repeal-ethanol-subsidies
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In Motortrend the other day, I read that Toyota is working on hybrid powertrains for their trucks, with the Tacoma probably the first model to get one. I would be interested in something like that if it was a powertrain like the Volt.
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Could you please cite the legislation that ended Ethanol subsidies? My copy of the budget still shows them in there. Along with the EPA mandate (Renewable Fuel Standards) to use more and more each year.
https://www.downsizinggovernment.org/ethanol-and-biofuel-policies
https://www.cato.org/blog/time-repeal-ethanol-subsidies
Mandate of biofuel usage is still there but the production subsidy for finished ethanol is expired, import tariff is expired and so is the .10 tax break for e10 gasoline.
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Mandate of biofuel usage is still there but the production subsidy for finished ethanol is expired, import tariff is expired and so is the .10 tax break for e10 gasoline.
My gosh, how did the Midwest farm lobby let that get through?
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My gosh, how did the Midwest farm lobby let that get through?
Probably traded for some other pork
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In Motortrend the other day, I read that Toyota is working on hybrid powertrains for their trucks, with the Tacoma probably the first model to get one. I would be interested in something like that if it was a powertrain like the Volt.
That would be cool. Or a Wrangler with the same set up. A smaller battery could be used and rely on an efficient engine to run the generator.
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That would be cool. Or a Wrangler with the same set up. A smaller battery could be used and rely on an efficient engine to run the generator.
Wrangler is Jeep though?
You'd probably want a larger battery though than a Volt to provide for the power needs torque wise when towing stuff.
Stupidly, the one hybrid truck produced to date disabled the hybrid systems completely when in towing mode. Meaning that the electric motors weren't helping get the load started.